According to the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll. National is well ahead of Labour, 46% vs 38% and could govern with United Future if:
- NZ First falls below 5% and Winston loses Tauranga.
Labour under that scenari0 needs Anderton, Greens, Maori Party, United Future to govern.
If NZ First makes it to 5%, then National needs NZ First to govern, but so does Labour, with four other parties!
Labour's bleetings about National borrowing for tax cuts are not going down well, Helen's humourless approach to the Air NZ pilot, National's call for racial equality, all of these have contributed towards a mood for change.
Given National got 21% in 2002, 31% in 1999, 34% in 1996 and 35% in 1993, if Brash can bring National above 40%, at a time of relatively healthy economic growth and low unemployment, he will have brought the party back to the political mainstream. All of the lies, unprincipled meaderings of the Bolger/Shipley era will be past once more - and if National IS elected, all of the MPs from that era should remember - Brash did it, you didn't!