Labour - the party that believes it has the right to power in a democracy (because it represents the people) has dropped further in the latest poll, to 36%. This is now below where Labour was when it won in 1999, while National is on 49%.
If that isn't a resounding lack of confidence in the government I don't know what is. With that, National could govern alone and probably also get ACT for a coalition partner.
Don't worry though, it is still a long time till an election. United Future and NZ First don't want to half their number of seats either, so will continue to prop this government up - hopefully the people of Ohariu-Belmont will punish Dunne at the next election for his continued backing of a government that bought it way to power.