Sunday, September 21, 2008

Harry Duynhoven - a shoo in

Labour Party candidates that are only standing for their electorates can only mean two things:
- Very high likelihood of winning electorate (so not needing a list position); or
- Token electorate candidate that the Party doesn't really care about winning anyway.

This isn't nefarious, as the Nats do this too. So after Sam Yau and Paul Chalmers (both clearly in the latter category) who else is standing for Labour, but not on the list?

Harry Duynhoven - New Plymouth: Yes, Harry has held New Plymouth since 1987 and has a loyal following. He is trained as a teacher, electrician and has a Masters in Public Policy, he is known as a hard worker and quite dedicated to local affairs. He is Minister of Transport Safety and Associate Minister of Energy. One of his pet projects has been compulsory third party property insurance for motorists, despite much official resistance to the idea. His majority was a solid 5439 in 2005, one of the few MPs to win a majority of votes cast (53.2%) during an election when Labour lost many provincial seats to the Nats. As National won the party vote in New Plymouth (44.5% vs 37.6% for Labour) it shows he has a high personal following in the seat. National's Jonathan Young will have to work hard to unseat Harry. Harry is unlikely to be too worried, but if on the night it is looking tight it will definitely be spelling doom for Labour, certainly Harry's personal following didn't translate into anywhere near as many party votes for Labour.

PREDICTION: Harry holds on but National's party vote lead will see his majority tighten.

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