Saturday, November 26, 2011

New Zealand election live blogging 0945GMT

So the Nats will need Peter Dunne and John Banks to govern, that's fairly easy.   Dunne will want nothing other than his bureaucracy isn't closed,  Banks will want what exactly?

The Nats will negotiate an agreement with the Maori Party just to be sure, but beyond that it is insurance for the future.  The Maori Party would be critical in the following election, but its relationship with National has been costly in losing votes and two seats.

The Greens have their best ever result, as Labour voters went to the left, the Greens campaigned very cleverly and the media was complicit in giving them an easy ride.

NZ First re-emerges as the media Winston hates gave him the oxygen of publicity by treating him as an outcast, playing into his hands.  

Both the Greens and NZ First will bring new barely competent nobodies to Parliament, none of whom will face having to prove themselves in government.

ACT is virtually finished - the Banks strategy failed, miserably.  Don Brash could have campaigned much better, but this was a disaster because the Banks strategy split its support base and saw a massive distraction in Epsom.

The Mana Party is Hone, but he took votes from the Maori Party and so has reduced the overhang to one, helping the Nats.

Three more years of the same, with new conservative National MPs, and the middle muddle ground of mediocrity winning the day.  The victories are with boring no change National, radical Greens and the bigoted xenophobic populist NZ First.

Oh and you've kept MMP, the left will be thrilled, for despite all of the above, over 45% of the vote was for much more government.

The real fight for hearts and minds is far from won.

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