Saturday, November 26, 2011

New Zealand election live blogging 1055GMT

Party vote summaries... in a Parliament of 121

Parties in Parliament

National rise from 44.93% in 2008 to 47.99% tonight 2 seat gain overall to 60.  Pleasing but disappointing compared to the polls.

Labour drop from 33.99% to 27.13% tonight 9 seat loss to 34. Gutting result, but could have been worse, nothing as bad as National's 2002 result of less than 21%

Greens rise from 6.72%  to 10.62% tonight 4 seat gain to 13.  Very pleasing for the Greens, would have liked more, but will now influence legislation substantially in select committees.

New Zealand first rise from 4.07% to 6.81% tonight. Re-enters Parliament with 8 MPs.  The comeback King, Winston Peters.  Written off constantly by a media which by mentioning him gave him electoral oxygen. 

Maori Party drop from 2.39% to 1.35% tonight.  2 seat loss to 3.  Has to be wary of seeing to support National too much, Maori vote dissipating to Mana and Labour.

ACT drop from 3.65% to 1.07% tonight. 4 seat loss to 1.  Devastating for ACT, much soul searching needed now.  ACT Board will need to decide whether Banks will lead or not.

Mana, first time standing. 1% retain single seat won in previous by-election.  Radical Maori separatist and Marxist vote now has a clear home.

United Future drop from 0.87% to 0.61% single seat retained.  One time significant coalition partner for Labour continuing to be a one man band in Ohariu.

Conclusion?  National will govern with United Future and ACT with a small majority, but will enter into confidence and supply agreement with Maori Party.

Parties outside Parliament

Conservative Party, first time standing. 2.76%.  Very credible result, must try to win NZ First voters over to try to cross the 5% threshold or spend up large in one seat.

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party Small gain from 0.41% to 0.48%.  Treading water with core supporters

Democrats for Social Credit small gain from 0.05% to 0.07%.  Clearly attracted a few more with the global financial crisis

Libertarianz small gain from 0.05% to 0.07%.  Did Banks turn some ACT voters towards Libz?

Alliance drop from 0.08% to 0.05%.  Far left voter bled to Mana and the Greens


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