Showing posts with label Wellington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wellington. Show all posts

04 November 2015

Wellington Airport Runway Extension: Definition of a Cargo Cult: Part One

For those unfamiliar with the term "cargo cult" it is a description of what might best be called as a naive practice of some cultures with low levels of scientific understanding and a high belief in animist religions that certain rituals will result in untold riches arriving from the skies.  Nowadays it is often shortened into "built it and they will come".

Such is the hype around the planned extension to the runway of Wellington Airport - a proposal that completely lacks pure commercial merit and has no net wider economic benefit - but is being promoted by the opportunistic, encouraged by the naive and to be paid for, largely, by those will get no benefit from it at all.



I say this as someone who grew up 1.5kms from the airport and knows a bit about the aviation sector, having recently been part of the team that reviewed over 50 proposals for expanding airport capacity in London.  I know Wellington Airport very well, and the likelihood that there will be long haul flights into that airport that will generate net benefits to Wellington ratepayers to recover the costs of subsidising the runway extension is very low indeed.

Let's remember the airport is a commercial concern, two-thirds owned by Infratil, which itself is not willing to contribute two-thirds of the capital costs of the project.  It's the owner of the other third - Wellington City Council - that is the problem, because it is willing to force ratepayers (along with other Wellington councils) to cough up half of the liability to boost the value of Infratil's investment. This in itself should cause both believers in the free market and socialists to baulk at public subsidy for a predominantly private entity, but no - they have cargo cult syndrome.

They believe that magically if an airport extension is built, there will be long haul flights from Wellington to Asia and the Middle East, making the city more attractive for business.  However, it is far from clear exactly:

- Why airlines will fly long haul to Wellington;
- Are the assumptions about the the benefits claimed valid?

07 October 2013

Wellington local election guide: Capital and Coast District Health Board

Of course I'd abolish it, and there are plenty of candidates for 7 places.

So there needs to be a strategy here.

1.  Avoid evil.  In this case Helene Ritchie, a leftwing harpy who is destructive, and Sue Kedgley (concealing her Green moniker for some reason) deserve to be avoided.

2.  Avoid the less than competent.

3. Avoid rent-seekers from unions or professional monopoly trade associations.

4.  Avoid those who don't understand the role of the DHB. Including those in the sector with apparent axes to grind.

5.  Select the analytically competent.


03 October 2013

Wellington local election voting guide: Regional Council

There are five councillors to be drawn from eight candidates in the Wellington constituency of the Wellington Regional Council, unfortunately.  I say unfortunately, because there are more than three candidates who are unelectable.  What I want from the regional council is to keep rates under control, more protection for property rights, minimal compliance costs, effective stewardship of waterways, cost-effective management of public transport and resistance to a supercity.  

I wont get that, at all.  To me it is a fair option to leave the whole lot blank, but that will give some succour to the amalgamation enthusiasts.  However, there is no decent anti-amalgamation ticket.  The candidacy is full of leftwing candidates, barring one, with the only matter as to whether you want to create a dysfunctional Regional Council full of nutters, or want to mitigate damage by keeping out the worst candidates.  I

What I'll get are...

Judith Aitken:  "committed to the long-term purposes of the RMA", "wants a comprehensive, integrated approach to development planning and energy-efficient urban design", "active support for insulating at least another 5000 homes" "support for young people in creative, high-tech start-up businesses".  She isn't the worst candidate.  She supports fare increases over rates increases for public transport.  WCC Watch thinks this is hypocrisy because of her "Gold Card" (but I don't see anyone on the left canning that).  Aitken was with Labour once.   From a harm mitigation point of view, rank her 2nd.   Yes, you've reached nearly the best candidate! Rank 2 or just give up now....

Paul Bruce: Like I said yesterday, eco-loon, who bikes everywhere and admits he is in the Green Party. He gets credit from me for two things, one is that he practices what he preaches (unlike the motorist Sue Kedgley) and the other is that he is genuinely an amiable chap.  However, as an eco-loon he is a light rail fetishist, would cover many of our roads with speed bumps and 30km/h speed limits, clog buses with people carrying bikes, somehow shift more freight onto rail and shipping (no, he can't do that), is anti-fracking and deep-sea oil exploration, and wants "community owned energy projects".  He wont control rates and his enthusiasm for banning things and regulating make him beyond the pale.  However, he is not singing the praises of local body amalgamation. Could I rank him?  No.  No Ranking.  I just can't endorse him.

Mike Fleming:  His great interest is future proofing infrastructure for an earthquake.  Fine, keeps him out of implementing the RMA, grand public transport schemes (he supports public transport, with larger park and ride railway stations, which is fine) and trying to save the planet by regulating Wellington.  Easily wins Rank 1

Sue Kedgley: Don't let this woman near power ever again. Fiction peddling, publicity seeking control freak. Vote for Paul Bruce over her any day.  Her parody Twitter account (@SueKedgleyMP) can't be too far from what she thinks.

Chris Laidlaw:  Says he is independent, but is Labour and one of the shortest term Labour MPs I know of, as he won the 1992 by-election when Fran Wilde stood down as Wellington Central MP, only to lose it to (then) National's Pauline Gardiner in 1993.  Awful, simpering, left-wing Marxist "liberal", who I was told is remarkably lazy.  The only reason to vote for him is to keep the two Greens out, so hold your nose, turn away and Rank 5

Ariana Paretutanganui-Tamati:  As a Member of the Mana Party she probably thinks I'm being racist by rejecting her candidacy.  She wants to use more trolleybusses (sic) although it would help if she could spell. She doesn't like people paying for water ("it's a right" which of course means she wants to force everyone to pay for water, regardless of how much or little you use).  Free public transport for kids, which will increase obesity.  She wants to pay people more, regardless of performance, except for councillors and management. She wants to stop the Regional Council borrowing from banks, finally she wants to "nationalise" public transport, killing off the private sector so the Regional Council has a nice cozy monopoly of highly-paid unionised providers. Socialist, representing an avowedly racist party.  Don't rank

Daran Ponter: Incumbent councillor, ex. public servant who I met a couple of times.  Hard working and bright, but very much on the left.  He wants a referendum on a super city.  Good! He wants lower public transport fares, implying higher rates.  Bad!  He seems anti-Basin Reserve flyover which is a bit predictably childish (the last Labour Government funded umpteen flyovers).  However, for the greater good of keeping out the Greens, and because he is honest about his party affiliation I'm going to hold my nose and Rank 4.

Fran Wilde: We all know Fran was Labour, so why doesn't she admit it? I'm a bit bemused as to why she still cites homosexual law reform as part of her record.  Yes it is, and was perhaps her proudest achievement and justifiably so, but it WAS 1985 and has nothing to do with the Regional Council.  She supports a mega-city, which is a big reason to not give her first place, so Rank 3 because she is less left wing than Ponter or Laidlaw, but Fleming and Aitken need your vote more.

Now go have a stiff drink, and a bath.  You'll need it.

02 October 2013

Wellington local election voting guide; Onslow-Western Ward

3 councillors are to be elected from this ward, there are 12 to choose from.  So surely someone must be decent?

Well that is true.

Phil Howison deserves your positive vote to be ranked number 1.  He is on the Affordable Wellington ticket and is both intelligent and a thoroughly approachable, thoughtful, hard working and polite young man who is focused on keeping spending down by focusing the Council on its core services.  He wants processes streamlined and is opposed to "unnecessary restrictions" on businesses and residents.  Yes he was an active member of Libertarianz and was a candidate, but he's watered down his views somewhat (in fact rather too much, I'd like to see Phil push much harder for cutting rates and cutting local government).  Notwithstanding that, I endorse him as someone who has a clear position on ensuring Council minimises costs upon ratepayers and residents, and concentrates on doing its core business well.  Rank 1

The rest? Hmmm well...

01 October 2013

Wellington local election voting guide: Mayor

Yes, I get to vote in the local elections.  Better my vote than, well anyone else's really (look if you can't be arrogant about your own vote then don't bother).

So here's my run-down of the motley lot that are standing, and a motley lot it is.  I can't get enthused about almost any of the candidates.  So I figured since blogs are about venting one's opinion, I'd do a bit of my own.  Of course because voting is by STV you get to rank the candidates, which means you don't need to rank anyone you find particularly loathsome (after all being ranked 8th is worth more than not being ranked at all).

Remember, one of the most important things for Wellingtonians should be remembering what happened in Christchurch could happen again.  Wellington needs a Mayor and Council that can take on central government bureaucracy and be for private property rights.  It's a shame it doesn't have enough standing who do.

20 December 2012

Basin Reserve flyover opponents are grandstanding

The noise from Labour and the Greens on the Basin Reserve flyover is utterly remarkable.   

For Labour it is grandstanding hypocrisy because when it was in government, Labour endorsed a transport funding packages for Wellington that explicitly included provision for grade separation of roads at the Basin Reserve.

For the Greens it is disappointing, as it is a continuation of the hyperbolic hysteria that Sue Kedgley use to peddle, which I thought may have been moderated under the more thoughtful Julie Anne Genter.  

For both they may want to claim the project is akin to some major urban motorway project of the sort that once activated large groups of "rent-a-mob" leftwing protestors in the UK, but really it is no big deal at all.   Furthermore, the absurd claim that Wellington City Council is being bullied because NZTA questions the value of duplicating Mt Victoria Tunnel and associated road improvements towards the airport without the flyover, is astonishingly hypocritical.  For I doubt that the Greens endorse any of those projects (and if you believe road capacity improvements are the spawn of the devil, then doubling highway capacity between the city and eastern suburbs ought to be opposed as Sue Kedgley thought at the time).

Labour once happily supported funding major highway works at the Basin Reserve

During the Clark Government, Labour released a transport funding package for Wellington, which included money for the new Matangi electric multiple units, replacement signalling, electrical and track infrastructure, replacement trolley buses and to support a range of major road improvements.  The calculations for this funding including provision for capacity improvements at the Basin Reserve, with the implication clearly made at the time that this is about grade separation. 

Indeed, it was seen in the Wellington Regional Council's endorsement of "Basin Reserve capacity improvements" as the 4th highest priority in 2005.

It was the next logical stage after the one-way road and on-ramp that comprised the much maligned "Inner City Bypass" (which simply enabled the one-way system across Te Aro to be shifted a block and a bit south).   So Grant Robertson and other Labour politicians jumping on this bandwagon are being hypocrites.  Annette King in particular is being disingenuous, because she supports a second Mt Victoria Tunnel, which without the Basin Reserve bridge would simply mean longer queues at the Basin Reserve, as two bottlenecks would be cleared.   She didn't utter a peep when Transit/NZTA was investigating this very project when Labour was in power.

Greens are being utter hysterics over a two-lane one-way bridge

Sue Kedgley consistently claimed the Wellington Inner City Bypass would be a "multi-lane motorway extension through the heart of Te Aro".   It wasn't.  I wonder how many people who went on "path of destruction" tours still think Te Aro's historical heart has been "destroyed".

The "path of destruction" of the Wellington inner city bypass looks a lot like the other two lane roads
The two-lane 50km/h city street called a "multi-lane motorway" by the Greens

Now the claim is that this project will "destroy the character" of the Basin Reserve, an entirely subjective value judgment, but itself is rather extreme.  It will affect it, some may think negatively, but destroy?  Really?

The next claim is "it will affect Wellington's green belt and access to eastern suburb sports facilities and will cost tax- and rate-payers $97 million to move traffic congestion 300 metres"

Really?  The green belt?  Utter nonsense:

The green belt is off to the left of the Basin bridge, affected?
How will it affect access to eastern suburb sports facilities? Other than improve them for those leaving the eastern suburbs.  How will it cost ratepayers, given it is fully funded from NZTA as a state highway project?  How will it "destroy the Basin as a sporting and cultural venue"?   

Just pure hysteria.

Julie Anne Genter is a bit better on this.  She says it is a waste of money because the road has "declining traffic volumes", although this isn't apparent in the severe congestion and of course the Greens typically say new roads generate new traffic, so she can't have it both ways.

She says "The vast majority of people coming into Wellington take public transport, cycle or walk", yet this project isn't about people coming into Wellington, but bypassing Wellington primarily between the airport and the Hutt, Porirua and wider region.  In fact the travel survey by NZTA (excel file) of travel across the country indicates that 68-69% of trips in the region are by car, with 5-7% by public transport. Greater Wellington Regional Council even says only 17% of commuter trips are by public transport, with it being 21% in Wellington city (excluding the Hutt and Porirua).  Cars are important in Wellington.

Then there is the utter nonsense of this:  "A massive concrete motorway flyover is an invitation for future urban decay and crime. It is the exact opposite of smart transport planning".  Once again, she has Kedgley disease in calling it a motorway, but there are several motorway flyovers in Wellington, let's look for this urban decay and crime:

Bowen Street motorway overbridge - car park, housing and offices
Thorndon Quay motorway overbridge, commercial and retail premises

Dowse Drive/Hutt Road overbridge, commercial and retail premises
Yep, lots of urban decay and crime in those scenes.

In fact the only argument she has is economic.  It doesn't have a good benefit/cost ratio, with various studies indicating it ranges from below 1 to above 1.  The argument can be made that there are better projects.  Yet the Green Party's pet project - the underground rail loop in Auckland - doesn't have one either, in fact they argue that the conventional benefit/cost appraisal of the project doesn't take into account all of the criteria important to them.   So it's a bit rich to claim a road doesn't stake up on one set of criteria, but that same criteria is inappropriate for a rail project.

What is clear is the Greens will oppose road improvements on any sort of cooked up criteria.  A flyover may be ugly to some, and it may not be the best use of money spent on roads in Wellington, but it is far from the worst, and unlike the proposals for more rail, it wont need subsidies its entire existence. 
Save the Basin campaign is equally hysterical

The actual opposition campaign against the project is at best misguided and naive, at worst beholden to the same hyperbole that besets the Greens.

  • It will blight the streetscape and surrounding neighbourhoods
Well, few things blight the streetscape as much as large volumes of traffic circulating around this enormous roundabout.  As you can see above, bridges need not blight streetscapes.  The claim it will "blight" surrounding neighbourhoods is hysterical.  After all, the presence of a busy road tunnel since 1931 has had a bigger impact.  Thorndon has had a motorway blasted through it since the 1970s and is hardly "blighted", neither is Kelburn "blighted" having it running at its base.  
  • It will overshadow the Basin Reserve and place its future as an iconic international cricket ground at risk
Oddly, this was never really raised as an issue for the 40 years that there have been serious plans to push a major highway along this alignment.  There is no authoritative statement that this is true, just a rant by a reader to a website.   
  • It’s unnecessary. Road traffic volumes in New Zealand are declining and so is trucking:
So what? The route is congested and the current problems are severe.  At peak times, queues from the Basin back up all the way through the Mt Victoria Tunnel, they back up around the Basin from Buckle Street, and create delays for buses. 
  • Now that a tunnel is being built under Memorial Park, it makes no sense to emerge from a tunnel and go up onto a flyover
Yes, and nobody is expecting that to happen because the flyover is a one way road towards the tunnel.  This basic mistake indicates how very shallow this opposition is.
  • There are good, well-researched alternatives to a flyover. One, Option X, looks even better financially now that a tunnel will built under Memorial Park. Another non-flyover alternative has recently emerged.
Except that these alternatives actually don't deliver benefits and Option X creates new problems.  The professional assessment (i.e. highway engineers not architects) indicates that Option X has safety issues, would cost more, would have lesser benefits and has significant gaps (e.g. it is depicted as offering no road access to two of the schools at the Basin Reserve).   

This claim from its website is just nonsense:

This vote follows other cities throughout the world which have rejected flyovers – Boston, New York, Melbourne, Toronto, Seoul, Boston, Milwaukee, Vancouver, Trenton, Portland, Chattanooga.
Oh really? The Big Dig in Boston?  Melbourne's Citylink, EastLink and soon to be built East-West link? Toronto's 407ETR? Boston twice (paying attention then)?  Well Auckland has had a host of flyovers built in the past decade, Napier has had two built, Hamilton has just seen one built, Christchurch has just seen one built.  Indeed, the Hutt Valley recently had one open (Dowse Drive Interchange)

Funnily enough, the claim that the bridge will generate more traffic is now not made, presumably the great fear is that it will work and make a positive difference to traffic, like every other grade separation highway project in Wellington in recent years (underpass of Vivian Street, Dowse Drive Interchange, Newlands Interchange, Mungavin Interchange). 

A simple claim is made that anytime there is new road capacity provided, it quickly fills up because there are simply thousands of people who would have driven before, but for whom the existing congestion puts them off.  The improved road is said to "induce" demand, and so make things worse, because the additional trips (which are presumed to have little real value) simply take the road back to a congested position in the first place.  This is known as the Pigou–Knight–Downs paradox, but it is so grotesquely misquoted out of context by politicians (particularly Green ones) that it is worth remembering what the authors actually meant.

The situation they talked of was when the road improvement directly reduced congestion for a trip where there was a parallel public transport service offering similar travel times to driving.  A perfect example in Wellington would be trips between the Hutt Valley and Wellington city, so that adding another lane to the motorway between Ngauranga and Aotea Quay would directly improve travel times between driving and taking the train.   It's a bit more difficult when very few of the trips on the route being improved are undertaken by public transport (or could reasonably be undertaken by public transport), even moreso if the route improvement directly reduces delays on public transport.

The Basin Reserve flyover primarily benefits traffic travelling between the airport/eastern suburbs and the wider region to the north and the western suburbs.  Whilst there are a few bus services that offer alternatives to some, all focus on passenger starting/finishing trips in the CBD, so are slow for trips that are bypassing it.  In other words, the time savings wont result in any mode shift which is the source of the "induced demand" claimed by that theory.  Beyond that, it is difficult to envisage that anyone will relocate businesses or homes just because a flyover will knock a minute or so off of traffic queues, certainly not in volumes that will mean it gets filled up with traffic.

Furthermore, the secondary benefit of the flyover is to take east-west traffic flow away from the north-south traffic flow at the Basin, which includes some major bus routes.  Those bus routes are held up by substantial delays which will be relieved by the flyover, a point almost entirely ignored by the naysayers.

Local authority opposition is misguided and should be ignored

For many years both the Greater Wellington Regional Council and Wellington City Council have supported major road improvements on this corridor.  Regional Councillor Paul Bruce, a Green Party member and activist against motorised transport (the guy bikes most places) has been central to seeking a review of this, and at Wellington City the Mayor has been.  This is the first time this opposition has been realised at the Councils, and shows just how difficult it is to plan major infrastructure when politics swings against it, particularly when there was strong support before.
Yet it largely shouldn't be up to them. The project requires no ratepayer money, it isn't on local roads (although it interfaces with them), and it fits clearly into the various strategies that are relevant.  It demonstrably improves access across the city, and will deliver huge benefits to public transport users, cyclists and pedestrians (in part because a damned silly cycling/pedestrian bridge has been included in the design).  

Opposition to it is hysterical, illogical and based on hyperbole or simple nonsense.  

It is a two lane one-way westbound bridge to connect one tunnel to another.   A second Mt Victoria Tunnel can't possibly replicate the benefits of this, and in fact will make the current situation worse.   Labour opposes it because it is being pushed under a National Government and Labour wants Green votes in Wellington.  The Greens oppose it because it's a road project and it panders to hyperbole about road projects. The Save the Basin lobbyists suggest alternatives that are inferior and unsustainable.   The two Councils are pandering to Green activists within their ranks, who offer no rational alternative (exhorbitantly expensive light rail lines that wont do a thing to reduce congestion are just chimeras).   If any of those opposed were truly concerned about generating more traffic they would stop improvements to the motorway between Ngauranga and Aotea Quay and demand Transmission Gully be stopped, but the latter is politically popular, so they are largely keeping their heads down on that one.

The Basin bridge will improve the environment for all road users, reduce delays and emissions, and is a necessary pre-requisite to building a second Mt. Victoria Tunnel.  It should proceed.

26 August 2011

Annoy the Greens - support a road

OK, so this may be a bit of mischief making, but given that the Greens use public consultation processes as a chance to lobby and gain publicity, I figured that a few of you might want to respond in kind.  Especially since the Greens are telling enormous porkies in their anti-road campaign.


Now this project basically involves completing the four laning of Wellington Road and Ruahine Street to a second Mt Victoria Tunnel, and a flyover from the existing tunnel to Buckle St so through traffic bypassing the city can bypass the crowded Basin Reserve roundabout.   The section to be fixed is the only remaining major bottleneck between the city and the airport, given half of the route has been a four lane 70km/h highway since the airport opened.  At the city end the one-way system the Greens were prepared to stand in front of bulldozers to stop, feeds the traffic to and from the motorway to the north of the region. 

All of the land involved in this project was designated for road widening or the tunnel duplication over 40 years ago, and much of it is held by the NZTA for this purpose. None of it should be news as it was envisaged by the De Leuw Cather report on Wellington transport in the early 1960s that proposed the Wellington Urban Motorway (fully built as far as Bowen St, half built to Vivian St then unbuilt) and an underground railway extension to Courtenay Place. However, the Greens (and its ginger group Campaign for Better Transport) are opposing it, because it is a road, and trucks and cars will use it.  They would prefer those going by car to catch the bus, or to spend a fortune of other people's money on their favourite totem - a rail scheme, which of course would lose a lot of money, to be paid for by other people's money, and wouldn't meet the needs of most of the road users.  

There is already a limited stop commercially viable bus service running every 15 minutes that bypasses the congestion from the airport to the city and the Hutt, with free wifi - so there isn't a lack of public transport.

Now you’d expect the Greens to focus their efforts on the most expensive (and permanent) part of the plan and to oppose the second tunnel because it will remove a major bottleneck that slows down car and truck traffic from the airport and eastern suburbs. The effect will be for buses to be less competitive, because many use a parallel one-way bus only tunnel to bypass the congestion. On top of that it doesn’t have a positive benefit/cost ratio, an argument used to oppose extending Auckland’s Northern Motorway to Wellsford, but curiously ignored whenever the Greens advocate rail based projects (unless the results are gerrymandered to suit the outcome sought).

However, the Greens aren’t opposing a second Mt Victoria Tunnel, not loudly anyway. They are opposing the Basin Reserve flyover – because it is a flyover.

The flyover is the part of the project with the best economic return and it will have the most positive impact on pedestrians, cyclists and public transport users. Why? Because reducing about a third of the traffic flow around the Basin will allow for longer crossing phases for pedestrians, and for cycle lanes to be established along with bus lanes. Buses coming from Adelaide Road towards the city wont face queues backing up from Buckle St. However, these facts get in the way of the ideological tunnel-vision of the anti-car, anti-road lobby.   The bridge is "ugly" and part of an “outdated vision” because apparently nowhere else in the world are cities building new roads – except everywhere of course. A few hundred metres of two lane one way road over a roundabout wouldn’t get people excited in Melbourne, Oslo, Vancouver or Paris, but it’s a road, so it’s evil.

Some are pushing for an alternative plan, which doesn't work because it rules out two current major movements (between Adelaide Rd and Mt Victoria Tunnel).

So if you want to show your support for the people who pay for state highways (the whole project is fully fundable from fuel taxes and road user charges), then put in a quick submission in support.  You can be sure the Greens will have rounded up a few thousand to oppose it - because it's a road.

There is an online form here.  So support a decent highway from Wellington airport to the city, indeed from the growing media and film sector based in Miramar to the city.

Oh and the deadline is today.

UPDATE:  See the Greens are already seeking you support their groupthink agitprop.

Some of the nonsense written by Gareth Hughes:

"Wellington needs urgent investment in public transport and safer cycling and walking".

Really? Beyond the hundreds of millions spent on brand new trains, extending electrification to Waikanae, upgrading the Johnsonville line for new trains, upgraded stations, new rail infrastructure, new trolley buses?  What's unsafe with cycling and walking? Missing a footpath? 

"It certainly doesn’t need an 8 metre high flyover that will deface much of Wellington’s heritage precinct including the war memorial, the Mother Aubert crèche and the Basin Reserve."

Much? You mean between Buckle Street and Mt Victoria Tunnel?  That's "much" of the heritage precinct? Deface by having a bridge skirt the northern side?  Hyperbole again.

"In particular, we support light rail from the CBD out to the airport."

Of course you do.  You have a religious passion for light rail.  Forget it would cost hundreds of millions, lose money, not relieve congestion, put a privately run commercial unsubsidised bus service out of business, and not meet the needs of freight or people travelling from outside the CBD to the airport - it's light rail, bow down and get excited, it's cool man.

"Wellingtonians do not need an uneconomic urban motorway that will take out dozens of homes, depreciate land value, reduce the town belt and increase air and noise pollution."

It isn't an urban motorway.  The homes are either state owned or on land long designated for road widening.  The effect on the town belt is derisory, and there isn't evidence it will increase pollution.


"Cities such as Seoul and Seattle regretted building flyovers in their cities and have replaced them with attractive and spacious urban design."

One in Seoul, plenty more remain.  In Seattle it was weakened by an earthquake and it is now being replaced with a tolled bored tunnel highway - exactly the type of bypass for Wellington you all opposed.   Such a conspicuous lie.


"There is no evidence to suggest there is a need for such a costly and imposing roading project." Several kilometre long traffic queues for 1.5 hours every morning from Mt Victoria Tunnel, and the same around Oriental Bay.  No, no evidence at all.  Long evening queues southbound towards the Basin holding up all traffic, including buses heading for Newtown.  No evidence.

"demand for better public transport is sky-rocketing".  Which is why the airport bus frequencies have improved.  More fare revenue, but then you don't really approve of anyone making money from transport.


"In the short-term, better traffic signalling and bus priority measures would largely mitigate congestion around the Basin at a fraction of the cost."

Says who? The architects who developed a "solution" that prohibits traffic movement between the tunnel and Newtown?  How would this mitigate the queue from Mt Victoria Tunnel

"Light rail through the CBD out to the airport is a cheaper and more sustainable option that would  alleviate congestion and offer commuters an affordable option in the face of future oil price rises."

Cheaper?  How?  Don't have a price do you?  Loses how much money?  Where in the world have new light rail schemes alleviated congestion?  How is it an option for freight, or people going to/from the airport from the rest of the region?  How is it affordable when you need to increase rates or other taxes to pay for it?

Just loads of empty vacuous spin, worshipping the altar of new subsidised railways, freight is invisible, as are any people not travelling to and from the CBD.

They are even so backwards in thinking that they don't push congestion charging, bit too much "user pays" and high tech for a party that loves trams?

What's really pathetic is that the Greens have stopped arguing against new roads because of them not being economic, but chooses to lie about what they will do and the basis for them.

17 December 2009

Transmission Gully subsidy to Wellington

$3 each for a $20 a user road.

Yep, that's what the Transmission Gully boondoggle will cost. Each user will pay no more than $3, you could argue probably another 65c in fuel tax/RUC for driving 22km along the road.

So that's $3.60 per user.

How much of Transmission Gully will the toll recover? $200 million out of $1.2 billion. The extra 65c will only recover proportionately another 22% more (generously rounding up) so that means $244 million of Transmission Gully will be paid for by users.

The rest? Comes from motorists using other roads, across the country and indirectly, taxpayers who wont be charged interest on the capital put into this expensive road.

So go on, thank the government for pouring over $950 million in subsidies to road users for Transmission Gully. Then again, given the $500 million being poured in subsidies to rail commuters in Auckland, it just shows you how much interest there is in economic efficiency and user pays by this Labour government.

Yes I know the report says $2, but really we're just arguing about how bad it is aren't we?

How many of those who damned Labour for wasting money are now hopping on their new cargo cult?

16 December 2009

Think Big hits Wellington

It seems Rob Muldoon and Bill Birch are back with big road building plans for Wellington's State Highway 1.

The list is enormous, and it is justified based on agglomeration benefits. The same benefits the UK government has long used to justify a whole range of highly borderline rail projects. Quite how agglomeration benefits the economy when it is about a city primarily set up for the state sector is beyond me.

After all it is $2.4 billion we are talking about, around $7000 per Wellingtonian. My back of the envelope estimate is that the net benefits from these projects will be less than $2 billion. So National is going to destroy wealth on a scale akin to the purchase of Kiwirail.

The project are listed in three phases.

Phase 1

Aotea Quay-Ngauranga extra lane: In other words, a subsidy to peak car commuters. After all this section of motorway flows freely the rest of the time. Price it properly and you wouldn't build it. Any chance this lane will be tolled? No. What will be the result on the local Wellington streets that don't quite have the capacity to cope now? Blank out.

Four laning SH1 Peka Peka to Otaki: Four laning of the current highway will make a big difference to safety. Not probably the highest priority though, as the Ngaruawahia Bypass on SH1 north of Hamilton ought to be more important. Still not a bad project, just wonder whether it is worth doing now.

Kapiti bypass: Essentially a four lane expressway between the current highway and the coast bypassing Paraparaumu and Waikanae. The Kapiti Coast District Council, now dominated by environmental radicals, is against it. However, it is desperately needed. Undoubtedly the best project in the package, will greatly relieve congestion in the whole District. The only reason this hasn't happened before is because previous governments left the problem to the council!

Basin Reserve flyover: A stunted portion of the Inner City Bypass Wellington should have done. Basically gets rid of the conflict between airport/eastern to region traffic and southern to city traffic. Opposition is driven partly by lies around it "destroying" the Basin Reserve, when there have long been plans to build this, as part of a proper motorway to connect at the Terrace Tunnel. On it's own, it's not really worth it, it should be part of a proper bypass of Wellington, but there is little real vision to take through traffic out of the city, to reduce the width of the waterfront route and enable Wellington to properly connect to its harbour. So what's more important?

Phase 2

Transmission Gully: Half the total cost of this package of roads is in this one road, bypassing Porirua, Mana, Plimmerton, Pukerua Bay, Paekakariki on a road just as long as the current one, with hills as steep as Ngauranga Gorge. Why? It's called politics over economics

Phase 3

Mt Victoria Tunnel duplication with 4 laning to Wellington Road: Finally, Wellington's long standing bottleneck between the airport and the city will be removed. Again though, the traffic will be dumped on an el cheapo one way system that the Greens opposed that opened only a few years ago. Again, this project is probably not worth it until a proper bypass of the city is built.

Otaki bypass and four lanes to Levin: An Otaki Bypass is no doubt good for Otaki, to some extent, and four laning is good for safety, but again this should hardly be a major priority.

Terrace Tunnel duplication: Perhaps Wellington's last bottleneck after everything else? So will all of Wellington's traffic problems be fixed? No. Ask yourself whether two or three lanes of traffic dumped from a motorway onto Vivian Street to make its way to the Basin Reserve is really going to work. Yes, it is probably worth building - with a bypass.

Given all this being funded, I can hardly imagine a big road project NOT being approved. The engineers suggest it, the Nats will fund it. A crying damning waste of money. Whilst Labour pissed money down a hole on railways (which the Nats are only slowing rather than stopping), National now pisses money down the hole of roads.

Yes there are parts of the road network that could be improved, but with a system where everyone pays the same regardless of location or time, you will get congestion. With a system that means that those who pay have no relationship with those who build the roads or run the roads, consumers will not always be happy, and the producers will waste because they don't get signals from consumers about what they are prepared to pay for.

Roads are just an economic good, like any other piece of infrastructure. You let politicians and bureaucrats make decisions about how to spend the money taken from you for using them, and now, the money taken from you for NOT using them.

The Greens will be furious, and notwithstanding their irrational hatred of motorised road transport (and hypocrisy over railways), there will be a point. Roads shouldn't be subsidised by non road users.

However, no believer in free markets, private enterprise or capitalism should applaud what is an enormous transfer of money from taxpayers across the country to road users in the capital. It is at best the grand visions of central planners gone mad, with the irrational "Roads of National Significance" moniker used to justify gold plating State Highway 1. At worst it is cynical vote buying, securing the support of the unprincipled political minnow of Peter Dunne, ensuring Labour can't promise any more, and giving National MPs some big projects to open, Stalinist style, to applause - whilst those who paid for it don't notice just a few dollars each week less in their pockets.

UPDATE: David Farrar shows his own economic illiteracy by wanting Transmission Gully to have been built two DECADES ago, when the business case would have been far far worse, with far less traffic.

15 October 2009

How do the Greens spread misinformation? Part 2 – Kedgley’s speech

In Part 1 I explained the rather complicated background to the Kapiti expressway issue. It’s one Sue Kedgley feels she can contribute to. Let’s see how she did. She made a speech to a Kapiti environmentalist group, supporting the council. So what did she say that was wrong? Note I’m only selecting the most blatantly obvious mistakes…

She said the Government was “announcing it is going to bulldoze a four lane motorway through Kapiti” including on one strip of land that was originally going to be used for a motorway in the first place, but Sue blanks that out. She uses the word “motorway” although the proposal is for an expressway, a subtle difference, but adds to the drama.

The government's justification for the proposed motorway from Foxton to McKay's Crossing” there is no proposed motorway from Foxton to McKay’s Crossing, the NZTA website explicitly says expressway from McKay’s Crossing to Otaki.

“is to… make the journey through Kapiti a few minutes quicker for long haul travellers and provide a fast lane between Wellington and Auckland for huge, juggernaut trucks” The NZTA website says nothing of the sort. This is further emotive hyperbole. It is to relieve severe congestion for local and through traffic. She made up “a few minutes” and the point about huge juggernaut trucks, for dramatic effect.

there is overwhelming international evidence that trying to solve congestion on one road by building yet another one simply doesn't work.” In the context of rural bypasses in New Zealand this is complete nonsense. Porirua and Tawa have been bypassed for decades successfully, so have places like Fairfield, Timaru, Richmond, Stoke, Upper Hutt, Waitara, Kaiapoi, Albany, Pokeno, Mercer and more recently Orewa and Silverdale. Quite simply bypasses DO work. “It's an almost irrefutable transport law” sorry Sue, I just refuted it.

The Government will “build a massive and expensive 4 lane motorway that will have a devastating impact on your community and your local ecology but will be of little use to local residents when petrol rises to $2 to $4 dollars a litre, as it inevitably will?” devastating impact? Not if it is built along the route reserved for it. Will it really be of little use if petrol rises so much? It will have taken through traffic out of the town centres, but then again Sue isn’t putting her own money on oil futures, so she’s not THAT convinced roads will be empty.

Two decades ago, in 1990, the then Commissioner for the Environment, Helen Hughes, investigated what would be the most effective way of solving congestion on the so-called Western corridor.” Yes, but the study was about access between Kapiti and Wellington, not traffic through Kapiti. Everything you say about this report is irrelevant, it did not touch upon roads through Kapiti. Nevertheless, you don’t tell the full facts about this either…

She concluded that that upgrading the rail service, not building a new motorway, was the solution” No, she concluded upgrading the rail service should be the first priority, before building a motorway along Transmission Gully. You oppose Transmission Gully Sue. Selectively quoting a report isn’t very honest is it?

So you see, Sue has now switched the issue from how to manage congestion from traffic travelling around and through Kapiti, to how people commute from Kapiti to Wellington, an quite different issue. Her entire focus is now nothing to do with what the expressway is meant to resolve or even the Council’s alternative proposal. In short, she’s subtly changed the topic to talk about what she wants to talk about – commuter rail. Remember this, nothing she says from now on is directly relevant, unless you think trains going south of Kapiti can be some sort of answer for traffic within and going north of Kapiti.

Since then, however, nothing has been done to rescue the rundown Kapiti rail service from further decline, although 48 new 2 car units were finally ordered last year, and the rail line is finally being double tracked and extended through to Waikanae.” What an oxymoron. Nothing has been done, EXCEPT order new trains, widen the track and extend electrification to Waikanae. Let's minimise hundreds of millions of dollars of spending.

Except she is wrong again. Since 1990, the current (Ganz Mavag) rolling stock was extensively refurbished from 1995 to 2002 with new seats. The double tracking also includes a wholesale upgrade of the signaling and electrics for the entire Wellington rail system. “Nothing” is false.

we need to transform what is at the moment a rundown suburban rail service into a fast efficient commuter rail system that commuters will want to switch to. So why isn't that our priority?” Again it’s false. It is the priority. The money the last government set aside for the Western Corridor had rail as the priority, with new trains, extending electrification to Waikanae and increasing the frequency of services. By comparison, nothing substantial has been spent on the highway except investigation and design work on Transmission Gully. Money for construction has not been approved.

Almost nobody drives from neighbouring suburbs into London, Perth, Tokyo or New York. They all commute by rail.” This is the Kapiti Coast Sue, not London. Besides which, how can those cities remotely compare, and the roads are all heavily congested in those cities. Funny that.

according to Kiwirail, more than 13 thousand people use the Kapiti line every day” No Sue, that’s misuse of statistics. That is the number of people along the whole length of the line, including people going between Wellington, Tawa and Porirua. 13,000 is not those going to and from Kapiti, indeed it would be maybe a third of that.

despite the fact that the trains are run down, 50 years old, often late, overcrowded, and freezing in the winter.” They are not 50 years old, they are 28 years old, hardly overcrowded at Kapiti and the heating is quite reliable. However, Sue doesn’t catch trains unless it is for a photo op.

An 8 train carriage takes at least 592 passengers and gets the equivalent of 440 cars or 1.2 kilometres of traffic off our roads.” No it doesn’t Sue, not everyone who travels by train would have travelled by car.

that's all it would take to solve the congestion on the Western corridor, as Helen Hughes predicted all those years ago, and for a fraction of the price.” Helen Hughes did NOT say that it would solve the congestion, and on price, how do you know Sue? You don’t give a price, but estimates I saw were that the track improvements alone would cost around $300 million, another 48 trains would cost $210 million, and then there are ongoing subsidies. So quite simply, you’re wrong compared to the cheapest expressway option of a maximum of $500 million.

why is the government building massive new motorways around the country spending $6 on roads for every $1 on rail” Sue, you know because the $6 comes from road users and about 40% of that is for road maintenance. The $1 on rail comes from taxpayers.

The problem is that these juggernaut trucks will be too big to travel on most of our narrow winding roads, they will need four lane motorways to travel on.” No they wont. This is a complete fabrication. They do not need motorways. The former Transit NZ investigation into this indicated most major highways could easily handle an increase to 50 tonnes. Most 44 tonne trucks can carry 50 tonnes with no increase in dimensions.

That's one of the reasons why the government wants to build a four lane motorway all the way from Wellington to Auckland, even if it means destroying hundreds of communities in its wake.” Really Sue? The government has said nothing about an expressway between Otaki and Cambridge. What community is being destroyed again?

But instead of building motorways to cater to an endless stream of juggernaut trucks, we should be requiring heavy freight to travel by rail, which is so much safer and far more energy efficient.” Oh so you want to force freight to go by rail? Like the old days when trucks were prosecuted for hauling freight more than 150kms. The energy efficiency claim is heavily restricted to train loads of goods over long distances, not truck loads over shorter distances.

This is code for saying that the proposed motorway which will cost a billion has a cost benefit ratio of .5% and that no matter how much they try to spin it or massage the figures, it will cost far more than any expected benefits.” No Sue, you’re wrong. You’re talking about Transmission Gully. None of the proposals has that cost, no matter how much you try to spin or massage the figures.

Meantime public transport is so cash strapped, that we've discovered there won't be any toilets on the brand new Kapiti trains” There weren't any on the current or the previous generation of trains either. It isn’t news Sue, the trains were ordered by the Wellington Regional Council before the current government was elected, when the Greens worked in partnership with Labour on transport. Hardly National’s fault is it?

So, on the one hand the government can suddenly pull a billion dollars out of a hat, overnight, for a motorway that no one wants. But on the other hand it can't even afford to put toilets on our new trains.” No Sue, no billion. $930 million is the most expensive option, the cheapest is $410 million tops. No Sue, this Government didn’t order the trains or fund them, it was a previous commitment.

So, exhaustively, you have it. Sue Kedgley has:
- Used heavily emotive language to describe what she hates (massive juggernauts, massive motorway, destroy communities), exaggerating for effect;
- Blanked out facts about the proposed expressway possibly being on land set aside for a motorway in the first place;
- Grossly misrepresented the Government’s proposals and justification for them, exaggerating them ridiculously;
- Claimed evidence for an effect which demonstrably isn’t true in numerous cases;
- Used a report to back her position that was not even on the topic in question, and which also supports a position she vehemently opposes;
- Talks extensively about a solution that is only slightly related to the issue at hand and talks not at all about the proposal at question (or even the counter proposal by those opposing it), maybe she doesn’t know anything about it;
- Says nothing has been done about rail, then lists several expensive projects that are being done;
- Claims rail isn’t the priority, yet the rail projects are the ones under construction, the road ones are being debated;
- Uses mega cities like London, Paris, Tokyo and New York as examples of how Paraparaumu and Waikanae can follow;
- Misuses official statistics about rail patronages;
- Is wrong about the age of the trains by over 20 years;
- Claims her preferred solution is cheaper than the ones proposed, when it isn’t;
- Misrepresents the cost of the proposed expressway and the economic appraisal;
- Makes a false claim that 51 tonne trucks need 4 lane motorways, when previous reports said the current state highway network can handle them no problem;
- Wants to ban long haul freight going by road, a new radical policy;
- Implies the current government is to blame for no toilets on new trains, when it isn’t, and none of the trains ever had toilets.

Now I can do this fisking on this issue because I know it very well. How many other times does Sue Kedgley misrepresent the truth out of ignorance or laziness, and how many other times does she exaggerate for propaganda effect?

Is she the only Green MP who does this? If so, why do the Greens tolerate such senselessness. If not, how can the Greens be taken seriously when they are so lackadaisical with the truth?

Finally, does anyone know if Sue took the train to this meeting or drove? Given I have seen her drive from a public meeting in downtown Wellington before, I’m not holding my breath that she even caught the train.

How do the Greens spread misinformation? Part 1 - Background

I could have called this “Sue Kedgley makes things up for an audience”, but I think what this post is about is wider than that. Sue is speaking on behalf of the Greens, so what she has done in this speech is presumably endorsed by the party. However, what she has done is express a litany of simple falsehoods, so false that I would question whether she really believes they are true, in which case why say it, other than to whip up hysteria for propaganda purposes.

First some brief background. The issue is whether to build a 4 lane expressway on the Kapiti Coast north of Wellington to relieve the current highway. The government has put forward three options, widening the current highway, partly widening the current highway, partly using an existing designation for a bypass of Waikanae and fully using the existing designation to bypass Paraparaumu and Waikanae. Why? Besides congestion through Kapiti becoming increasingly severe, wasting time, fuel and increasing vehicle emissions, the original plan was for a major arterial road to be built, 90% funded by central government, to allow a lot of local traffic to bypass the highway. Kapiti Coast District Council was to build the road, but since the last local body elections, it has taken a “Green” tinge, and started seeking to alter the route, narrow the road and effectively make it far less useful to relieving congestion. Some of the antics in altering the route have some rather disturbing elements of parochialism and partisanship for special interests. The government has had enough of this, it wont fund the narrow winding road with bridal path, so has decided one option is to use the land already set aside for that road for an expressway. Given that the road was originally set aside for a motorway since the 1950s, it should hardly be a surprise, and anyone who bought land adjacent to it should have known a major road would go there eventually. So property rights really are not an issue.

The Council is fighting this along with a local environmental group which is against any major highway development. It should know that it can’t get funding for the winding local road option, so given the government owns the state highway it would seek options to upgrade it. However, those opposing it are painting it as not a story about an incompetent council that has backtracked on its original plans to build a major new road, but some sort of conspiracy between the trucking industry and the government to “ruin Kapiti”. Fortunately, some local residents are fed up with this and have strong views counter to that of the council. These are people who own properties between the existing highway and the road designation, as well as others. This blog has a different view, supporting the original full local road option, and is also damning of the council.

So in wades Sue Kedgley on automatic, she makes this speech. What’s wrong with it? In summary Sue Kedgley has:
- Used heavily emotive language to describe what she hates (massive juggernauts, massive motorway, destroy communities), exaggerating for effect;
- Blanked out facts about the proposed expressway possibly being on land set aside for a motorway in the first place;
- Grossly misrepresented the Government’s proposals and justification for them, exaggerating them ridiculously;
- Claimed evidence for an effect which demonstrably isn’t true in numerous cases;
- Used a report to back her position that was not even on the topic in question, and which also supports a position she vehemently opposes;
- Talks extensively about a solution that is only slightly related to the issue at hand and talks not at all about the proposal at question (or even the counter proposal by those opposing it), maybe she doesn’t know anything about it;
- Says nothing has been done about rail, then lists several expensive projects that are being done;
- Claims rail isn’t the priority, yet the rail projects are the ones under construction, the road ones are being debated;
- Uses mega cities like London, Paris, Tokyo and New York as examples of how Paraparaumu and Waikanae can follow;
- Misuses official statistics about rail patronages;
- Is wrong about the age of the trains by over 20 years;
- Claims her preferred solution is cheaper than the ones proposed, when it isn’t;
- Misrepresents the cost of the proposed expressway and the economic appraisal;
- Makes a false claim that 51 tonne trucks need 4 lane motorways, when previous reports said the current state highway network can handle them no problem;
- Wants to ban long haul freight going by road, a new radical policy;
- Implies the current government is to blame for no toilets on new trains, when it isn’t, and none of the trains ever had toilets.

Read the (long) part two for the details.

17 February 2009

Wellington's transport priorities for the year ahead

Given that some blogs show a particular interest in this at times, I thought I should give a bit of parochial opinion.

I'll give the Wellington councils their due, the priorities are sensible and well thought out.

The Kapiti Western Link Road (pdf) quite correctly the top priority, as congestion, access and safety issues between Raumati, Paraparaumu and Waikanae are the most serious in the region. What's sad is that the Kapiti Coast District Council remains incompetently divided on this issue - which demonstrates how roads should be run commercially.

There is some agitation that a flyover at the Basin Reserve is number two. The Greens, and anti- road transport lobby have made it their campaign to oppose it, on the spurious grounds that it will damage the Basin, when for over 30 years a similar project has been long planned. The Standard has shown its sense of balance by only quoting information from an anti-flyover site, without giving any proposals to ease congestion at this bottleneck, or reduce traffic on what is the main highway between Wellington airport and the Wellington region (maybe Auckland should have a two lane highway from it's airport?).

The flyover would remove a third of the traffic from the Basin Reserve, making it far easier for pedestrians, cyclists and buses to get round. It would remove that traffic from crossings that service three schools. It would enable traffic lights to be removed from the Basin reducing queues that hold up traffic, including buses, from the south. Ignore the ugly artist impressions given by the anti-campaign, let's wait till the NZ Transport Agency gives something credible.

Advancing the rail network upgrade requires more thinking, it is a little odd that a system that claims such strains on capacity needs so much subsidy, when increasing fares at peak times would address this and pay for equipment replacement. Nevertheless, maintaining rail in Wellington is far more useful than any rail in Auckland.

SH2 Melling Interchange and bridge is an excellent project. The number of traffic lights on the Western Hutt Road is ridiculous on a four-lane highway. Once the Dowse Drive upgrade is complete, it will be clear what priority this project should have against other improvements on SH2.

Paraparaumu and Waikanae station upgrades, given the electrification to Waikanae is difficult to argue against, but again the network should be financially self sustaining.

All in all, fairly modest aspirations. Transmission Gully isn't there because it is still at design stage and there is insufficient money to build it. Hopefully Wellington local authorities retain pragmatic modest ambitions in building roads and improving public transport.

11 July 2008

The new cheaper Aston Martin

Hey guess what, I've found an Aston Martin that is cheaper than a new DB9, it does almost everything as good as the DB9 but starts at £83,000 instead of £110,850. It's the V8 Vantage.


Problem is, of course, I have money committed at lots of other things, so like hell can I afford either one.

However, the idea that you shouldn't pursue something you can't afford doesn't bother some Wellington local authorities. According to the Dominion Post they are crowing about how the new design for Transmission Gully "saves $275 million". Hmmm really? It "saves" money that actually nobody has in the first place, just like the V8 Vantage is a saving over the DB9.

You see the potential users of Transmission Gully wont pay anywhere near enough money to pay for more than maybe 10% of the road's financing costs, the project itself costs more than all road projects underway throughout the country in one go, and even the money earmarked by the government for it is less than half the cost.

So Wellington Mayor Kerry Prendergast is dead right when she says "At the moment you'd be hard pressed to start it at all" and that it is in never-never land without a vast increase in funding. However the money can't come from road users without an increase in fuel tax, of around 5c/l ACROSS THE COUNTRY, which would raise about $150m a year. You might ask why you in Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Christchurch or anywhere else should pay more for petrol largely so people living in the Kapiti Coast north of Wellington can have a choice of routes to get to work in the morning.

You see Transmission Gully is a very expensive solution looking for a problem. Safety isn't it, as relatively modest amounts of money have been spent on upgrading the current road. Congestion isn't it, as it is now pretty modest at peak times, and congestion north of the route is far more significant (which it will exacerbate). The only remaining argument is the bizarre notion that Wellington needs another route out and in in the event of an earthquake. Of course given the Rimutaka's have a road, and there is a port means this is rather specious. What is this route meant to do?? Is it worth $1billion of money from those who never benefit from the project to pay for some rather peculiar insurance policy?

Porirua Mayor Jenny Brash is well intentioned, but basically this is an enormous project to benefit a few suburbs in her city - Kapiti wants it because it is a subsidy for Kapiti dwellers commuting to Wellington.

I typically believe it is better to build roads than railways, but roads shouldn't be built when the users aren't prepared to pay for them. Politicians are looking for ways to make you pay for a road that you don't use - this is a small example ($1 billion) that is about having a cool head and saying no. Labour isn't saying no, but passing it on to local government (and giving it petrol tax raising powers!), Peter Dunne is addicted to this road, and National wont say anything because it doesn't like saying no. Wellington can't afford an Aston Martin.

24 June 2008

Transmission Gully non-announcement?

The Dominion Post today is reporting the rather exagerrated comment that the Transmission Gully boondoggle cargo cult "has passed a crucial hurdle" without actually saying at all what that is.

It isn't resource consents, it doesn't have those.

It isn't funding, it doesn't have that (and the funding earmarked for this project reduces in value every year due to inflation).

It isn't owning the land, that hasn't happened either.

It could be the completion of the investigation phase, but I thought that had happened.

The "government green light" could only mean funding, Transit board approval to proceed to the design phase or some special porkbarrel approval to change the law to bypass the RMA. If it is the "next phase of planning", it is simply design. Don't get too excited.

I do note finally someone has noted that costs don't remain static and it now costs $1.025 billion - for one road (I said $1.04 billion a few month ago). That makes it more expensive than any other road project in the country that us well developed other than the Waterview extension in Auckland, tunnelled under the PM's electorate.

Meanwhile Peter Dunne remains obsessed about it (Wellington needs another outlet, besides the current highway, State Highway 2, the two railways, the airport, the sea, the Akatarawas).

The enthusiasts all want a regional Wellington petrol tax (because you see, the users wont pay the toll necessary to pay for it - which tells you how bad a project it is), and tolls and "some other source" of funding. So if Wellingtonians are worried about petrol prices now, it seems Labour and United Future would increase petrol taxes to help pay for one road, and find other money elsewhere to pay for it OH and have you pay a toll, and demote the current highway (lower speed limits) so you'd have to use Transmission Gully for through traffic.

Nothing like politicians trying to buy the votes of some people by taxing the hell out of everyone else. Remember the extra Wellington petrol tax would also increase GST so 5c/l becomes 5.625c/l, remember also that Wellington region includes Wairarapa - how many people there will use Transmission Gully? How about Upper Hutt residents? How about all those Wellingtonians who DON'T commute by car from Kapiti every day, or DON'T have properties there?

Yep, and will National say it's a bad idea?

UPDATE: Yes I was write, investigations are over and the price is over a billion. The government is saying it has saved $275 million, which is only if you take a saving over the Land Transport NZ index of costs (an inflation that the government is hardly immune from blame over). Of course the "saving" is a nonsense, because the money doesn't exist to pay for it, or hasn't been taken from taxpayers yet. A toll wont come remotely close to being enough to fund it, neither would a 5c/l petrol tax on all Wellington motorists.

The Q&As are a nonsense. The project now has a preferred route, but landowners need to be talked to, property needs purchasing, and detailed design will determine exactly what the costs are likely to be. It's not that significant. The big issue remains funding - and more importantly why should motorists, ratepayers and general taxpayers pay for a road most of them wont use, and which by and large simply delivers property value windfalls to Kapiti residents, as it effectively subsidises car commuting from Kapiti to Wellington - not exactly lowering CO2 emissions is it?

UPDATE: The NZ Herald gets it wrong too. Transmission Gully hasn't "got the go ahead", it has funding for design. Property purchases not complete, no resource consent granted, no funding to built it. Come on, how hard is it to do more than report what politicians say? You could actually do a little research!

09 June 2008

State Highway 1 at Mana

Ok, very minority interest item here, but given the Dom Post reported on it.

The high occupancy vehicle lanes through Mana should be converted into standard clearways. Two full lanes in the direction of peak flow. Short high occupancy vehicle lanes are ridiculous.

Meanwhile, congestion at Paremata/Mana continues to be relieved by the upgrade from Paremata to Plimmerton that cost $25 million, instead of what politicians were advocating - Transmission Gully at over $1 billion. See they know so well how to spend your money.

07 May 2008

Wellington transport plan reasonable

Well the Greens are unhappy (but building a road and not building a steel church - I mean light railway - means that is guaranteed), but the plan itself as reported in Stuff isn't half bad. A new flyover at the Basin Reserve (long been planned and necessary) will make a big difference as will widening Wellington Rd and Ruahine St. Bus lanes through town and down Cambridge and Kent Terrace could do some good (especially if taxis and trucks are allowed on them too), so all in all a reasonable way to spend some fuel tax.
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The ridiculous light rail fetish, which few of the enthusiasts accurately cost on a per passenger km basis, should be killed. However, second Terrace Tunnel and Mt Victoria Tunnel would be good - but there is no talk of tolls which could fund them. I'd argue that State Highway 1 could be privatised and that would incentivise construction of a decent bypass as it could have variable tolls by time of day, but there is little appetite for this in Wellington.
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Oh and while the Wellington Mayor is enthused, note no MPs will get fired up about modest good road projects - they don't see votes in them (unlike Peter Dunne's fetish with Transmission Gully), so they often get neglected. Not even the Transport Minister, Annette King, whose electorate would benefit enormously from improving the roads between the city and the airport, is too interested - but then maybe she's looking at what her job is after the election?

20 February 2008

Wellingtonians: submissions on Ngauranga to Airport study

I blogged briefly about this some time ago, but since a couple of Wellington based blogs have made some comments, such as Eye of the Fish (which tends to be a little anti-road building) and Poneke, I thought I'd make some comments from a free market, economic rationalist perspective.
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The Ngauranga to Airport study is a transport corridor study lead by Transit New Zealand including the Greater Wellington Regional Council and Wellington City Council, and it is about planning how the corridor/s from the junctions of State Highways 1 and 2 through to Wellington airport should be developed over the next 10 to 15 years. Submissions close at 5pm NZDST on 22 February.
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My view is somewhat radical. I believe the road corridor is grossly inadequate and needs upgrading, with a second Terrace Tunnel, second Mt Victoria Tunnel and four lanes completed to Kilbirnie. I also believe Wellington needs a proper bypass between Mt Victoria and the Terrace Tunnel - covered trench, and that all of this can be paid for by peak time tolls for traffic entering the CBD. These tolls would reduce congestion significantly, encourage use of public transport, walking and cycling, and so greatly improve the flow of trucks, buses, taxis and cars - because the streets would no longer be run on the socialist principle of queuing, but rather the free market principle of price. With a large underground bypass linking the airport to the western and northern suburbs, and Porirua and the Hutt Valley, around a third of the traffic in Te Aro would be gone, as would the traffic along the waterfront. Friends of the Green Party view of less traffic might contemplate that, and visit Oslo to see what good toll funded bypass roads can do to the ambience of a city.
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Public transport itself doesn't need special treatment. Light rail is popular, not least because some Wellingtonians, well travelled as they are, have seen trams in Melbourne, continental Europe and the like and "think they are cool", forgetting the enormous cost of triplicating infrastructure in putting them back in. Light rail needs tracks and overhead wires, that can't be used by other modes, but also simply can't serve the variety of locations of buses. Most importantly, the variety of origins and destinations for people bypassing downtown Wellington are such that high density public transport can't meet their needs. The efficient and profitable Flyer bus between the airport and the Hutt is a reasonable compromise that doesn't need others to pay for it.
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In the meantime before tolling is introduced, bus lanes (also for trucks and taxis mind you) can be used to better allocate road space, and bus companies should be allowed to innovate more.
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The study should allow for a innovative approach to transport along this critical corridor. It is quite a good report so far, with some decent tradeoffs to be made.
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Wellington is vibrant, but is cauterised by a half finished motorway - still - depositing heavy volumes of traffic through its back door and along the waterfront. It's time to finish it and fund that and run the capital's roads on market principles - and see the difference. Oslo has.
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UPDATE: A friend notes "The Chamber of Commerce had cute young blonde things in high-vis gear standing at traffic lights around the Basin last night handing out pro-forma submissions to the WRC on the Ngauranga to Airport study that's going on at the moment" Indeed it did. The Chamber of Commerce in fact takes a sensible approach on this.

Wellington International Airport's rock?




OK, so what the hell is THIS all about? It's creative yes but attractive? It's the design for the expansion of Wellington airport's international terminal wing (note the ambitiously hopeful thought that Singapore Airlines might decide to service Wellington, hmmm).
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On the outside it looks out of place, bizarre even, on the inside it looks like you're sitting in a cave. Yes I know there is a desire to make an impact, and most airport terminals are "the same", but hold on a second. The main impact I get is "it's not like an airport, but I could get lost inside this".
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At one point the worst thing about Wellington airport was the old Air NZ domestic terminal, which is now long gone with the new terminal which is reasonably functional and quite pleasant to use. There is a need to expand some capacity at the international wing, mainly because typically 3 or 4 flights arrive and depart within three slots of an early AM peak, mid afternoon and late evening. However, I don't know if this design is quite right. Nevertheless it will make the airport environment less clinical and if it provide enough space for three times the expected passengers it WILL be comfortable. You see the best airports are the ones that don't seem packed, but can take you, with room for your bags, and a friend to spread out, and let you know when you need to know, when to board. It's nice to have that without lounge access! I'm unsure if this design makes it easy to use, imagine running to a flight through this, you don't have a clear sight to a gate and where to go, and what to avoid. Interesting to see what views others have, especially Not PC.
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