21 July 2008

Taxpayer can bear no more!

So says no less than UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling!

In an interview with The Times he has said that UK taxpayers are at the limit of what they are prepared to pay for "public services". Well, that's not going to stop him taking more money from my pay packet assuming I get another pay increase this year and a bonus. Nope, can't see my taxes being capped.

Of course what this is about is that the UK Treasury is in a rather dire state. On the one hand, the British government continues to be profligate with its state sector, the most recent profligacy being the nationalisation of Northern Rock, a building society that had clearly loaned too much to too many who couldn't pay them back. It also is running a substantial budget deficit, £24.4 billion in the three months to June alone. National debt (government debt) threatens to rise above 40% of GDP and there is now talk of borrowing to pay for current spending, not just capital investment in hospitals, schools, defence and transport. On top of that tax receipts are down, as the economy slows down.

In short, the newLabour reputation for fiscal prudence is looking badly damaged. The solution it chooses? Borrow more.

During the good times, the UK government didn't run budget surpluses - which it could have to lower debt and build a buffer of financial capacity to borrow during bad times. No, it continued to pour money down the enormous fiscal black holes of social spending, subsidising more housing, little used (and extraordinarily well used) railway services and the every hungry NHS.

So, whilst the Keynesians out there aren't worried - they always advocated borrow, spend and hope, the truth is that more borrowing is going to hurt.

Borrowing more means the UK government is competing with others for credit - given how tight credit has become for businesses and homeowners, this will only exacerbate the problem. In short the state sector will be competing with the private sector for credit. This only makes sense if you think the state sector can spend money better than the private sector, which is dubious at best. So expect interest rates to rise, further hurting businesses and mortgage holders (and so further dampening down house prices).

Secondly, borrowing more, particularly from offshore, will be inflationary, as it pumps more money into the economy.

There is, of course, the demographic timebomb contained within the UK national debt. The £640.5 billion of national debt consists of 44.2% of GDP, and this is at a time when the population is progressively aging, putting a higher strain on an already undercapitalised "national insurance" fund (which is no more a fund than any other Pay As You GO tax funded system) for pensions and the NHS.

So with credit tight, housing prices (and much of the private sector savings) heading downwards in most of the country, fuel and good prices soaring, the trade union movement is also starting to be restless. Calling for state sector wage increases well above inflation, naturally not giving a damn about the rest of us who would be forced to pay for them.

The Daily Telegraph editorial on Saturday
does suggest a different approach, which is simply to do what householders and businesses are doing in a recession. Look for efficiencies in government spending. When the government spends money it is taken from elsewhere, taken from consumers and businesses. So when it is spent on wasteful activities that generate little return it is destructive to the economy.

For far too long the answer to problems in the UK has been to ask the government for money, and the new Labour administration has obliged. It is time for the Conservative Party to out the waste of government, and to wage war against it. Some simple questions could be asked of all government spending by those in control of it:
1. Will the spending genuinely generate more money for taxpayers than was taken away?
2. Would taxpayers voluntarily cough up funds for this spending if given the choice?
3. What harm would happen if this money wasn't spent at all?

Those are questions politicians of the British Labour Party seem unable to ask, it's about time they were.

Free trade could ease global recession

In a couple of weeks time the Doha round will stagger on. If the governments of the EU, USA, Japan and poorer countries were rational actors they would treat this as an opportunity, a huge one - to inject some growth into the world economy. The Daily Telegraph tells how important this is.

It would be a chance for the price of food to be relieved by multilateral agreement to abolish agricultural export subsidies, to end non-tariff barriers on agricultural trade, and move towards decreasing tariffs and domestic subsidies. That requires the EU, Japan and the US - whilst Barack Obama seems distinctly unenthused.

It would be a chance for developing countries to respond in kind by reducing their tariffs and non-tariff barriers to manufactured goods and services. That requires India, Brazil and African states.

However there isn't much chance for optimism. In the US, the Democrat led Congress is in protectionist mode, and in the EU Nicolas Sarkozy as EU President is really not interested at all. Meanwhile, the Observer reports how Oxfam and ActionAid are showing their socialist colours, with little interest in the Doha round. It also presents Haiti as an example of how liberalising agricultural trade can go wrong - which of course, ignores the truth that without EU, the USA and Japan liberalising as well, and without the rest of the economy opening up, then Haiti was only going to be half successful.

19 July 2008

EU bureaurats strangle consultation

When the EU engages in "stakeholder consultation on the Commission's smoke-free initiative" you might think it would at least allow a smokers' lobby group to participate.

No. According to the Daily Telegraph's Simon Clark the European Commission has no interest in the views of smokers. Liberal? I think not.

"World's worst building" getting minor upgrade


Not PC described it as such, as has the Daily Telegraph and Esquire magazine.

It's the Ryugyong Hotel in Pyongyang, which is itself an empty shell. It is a concrete monstrosity, it has no utilities or rooms. Construction started in 1987 as a showpiece against South Korea, the host of the 1988 Olympics (which the USSR and China, North Korea's then allies, refused to boycott), construction stalled in 1992 after US$750 million had been spent on it, and the aid flows from the USSR (and the USSR itself) had disappeared.

According to the Daily Telegraph, a handful of top floors are to be refurbished at considerable cost. I wonder how this will happen, given it has no elevators and rumour has it that it was so badly designed and built (by North Korean state "companies") that the elevator shafts are not plumb (so elevators are out of the question using those.

The reports of "refurbishment" are most likely to be the use of the structure for telecommunications according to the Daily Telegraph report. This is surely the building that would be one of the first to get demolished when this enslaved country is finally freed.

17 July 2008

How nasty can someone on the left be?

"Poisonous, spiteful, and bitter" is how Idiot Savant described Dr Michael Bassett. I think he ought to look in the mirror.

He has posted on how Margaret Thatched is to get a state funeral when she passes away, and he's gotten nasty about it.

He described Margaret Thatcher as "Britain's most hated woman", but the link he places that comment on gives NO evidence for this. Even though it is the Guardian, the most leftwing mainstream paper. Controversial yes, but most hated? How does a NZ blogger make that call?

Then he says "On the plus side, it will at least give her victims a final chance to throw excrement and rotten fruit at her as she goes past". Yep, poisonous, spiteful and bitter for sure. Nice stuff really. David Lange led reforms as radical as Thatcher, but he didn't say that about him did he? However executing Saddam Hussein is "barbaric revenge" which even he didn't deserve. Apparently being filthy and disgusting at someone's funeral is ok.

Now I accept he'll have a Marxist position on her saying "She deliberately drove millions into poverty and destroyed British society in pursuit of a demented dream of unfettered capitalism. Her economic "successes" (if you can call them that) were won over the bodies of the poor. And that makes her a criminal, not a hero". Although there is NO evidence she "deliberately drove" millions into poverty, although there is mountains of evidence that decades of postwar socialism stagnated Britain into decline and locked generations into low income low education based jobs like mining. By no means is the UK close to unfettered capitalism, and the economic success is patently obvious with low unemployment, inflation and economic growth that much of Europe has envied. The "bodies of the poor" were kept there by decades of leftwing patronising and pretending that government could protect them from the economic reality that the British economy had to move on to be cleverer and more productive. Frankly Britain has only gone part way down that process, with mountains of whinges and moaning in much of the country about why the "guv'mint don't do nout for them".

Yes she mistakenly supported Pinochet, but her political opponents wanted unilateral nuclear disarmament (UK disarms, kicks the US out of the UK, but the USSR can remain a nuclear power), to remove itself from NATO (so basically being neutral between the free West and the totalitarian Soviet bloc) and remove itself from the EEC (so economic autarchy, ala Eastern Europe).

I for one am glad she defeated tired old unionist Labour in 1979 to turn the bankrupt British economy around, defeated the blatantly Marxist indifferent-to-the-USSR Labour in 1983, and the clothcap moaning reborn old Labour in 1988.

I can appreciate people not supporting her policies, but to say people should throw excrement and rotten fruit at her funeral is simply vile - but I guess the left is allowed to do that, much like some on the left turn a blind eye when picketers initiate violence against workers who don't want to strike, and their families. This is not a time to give a eulogy to Lady Thatcher, but for the handful of errors she made (Pinochet, Poll Tax and social conservatism) she did much more to save Britain than any other Prime Minister since Churchill in WW2. Indeed, the telling legacy is that no major UK political party even approaches destroying the bulk of her policies. That is worth far more than the venom of a leftwing New Zealand blogger.

Why is Wellington doing so well?

I thought Lindsay Mitchell's post showing that average weekly income in Wellington has soared ahead of the rest of the country is telling.

What does Wellington do more of than anywhere else? Where does the money from this come from?

Bob Geldof and Bono don't harangue this lot

Africa's kleptocratic leaders.

When Bob Geldof and Bono bleat on to the Western world about how it is "neglecting Africa" you might ask why they don't ask Equatorial Guineas's president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema why his son needs a US$35 million Malibu mansion, or why Gabon's President Omar Bongo has a 19 million Euro property in Paris.

According to the Daily Telegraph "the French fraud body OCRGDF, an anti-corruption campaign group has accused a string of African politicians of plundering vast sums from the often struggling economies of their countries."

The story tells of the obscene theft by some leaders of the revenues their governments take from oil and mining operations "for the country".

Don't go too fast John

Now I know that libertarians get a little flack for being hard on John Key, but tell me this. When he reneges on past National Party policy that was implemented when it was in government - and completely repealed by Labour, is it any wonder? I'd like, at least, for National to hold similar policy positions today that it held in 1999, because after all, what has changed to cause National to want to shift its policy closer to Labour? More importantly, has Labour moved towards National's policies? Hardly.

So when the NZ Herald reports that John Key says National will "investigate" opening the ACC Work Account to competition, you have to wonder why it is so insecure about a policy that it implemented, whilst a minority government, in 1999. A policy Labour gleefully repealed, with legislations overriding commercially negotiated contracts and effectively banning the private sector from providing ACC services that it had offered. Why isn't it even mentioning the ACC Motor Vehicle Account, which at the time was in the "investigate opening to competition mode"? I mean seriously, why is providing competition to a government monopoly something that so frightens John Key?

Come on John - announce competition for the Work Account, investigate competition for the Motor Vehicle Account AND the account for all other compensation. It's the least you can do!

16 July 2008

Fair Trade still isn't

Increasingly UK newspapers have taken to producing their own TV clips, which unsurprisingly are often smarter and more interesting than the BBC and commercial TV.

Today I present to you a piece from the Daily Telegraph as part of a series it calls "Holy Cows". It is presented by Sameh el-Shahat from Egypt, and it tackles just a couple of the myths of so called Fairtrade. For example, looking at how much of a margin is taken for fair trade and how much actually gets to the farmers, and secondly how fair trade is a distraction from the real trade agenda of free trade. Paying farmers a bit more for the raw commodity whilst maintaining high trade barriers that prevent them from selling the commodity processed is cheating them. I've said before there are many arguments against this well intentioned distracting fraud here, here and here. Oh and to some more liberal critics, yes this isn't a non-initiation of force, but it is fraud, and it assuages consciences while distracting people away from the real issue - trade protectionism. This of course, is deliberate, as much of the environmentalist/leftist end of the political spectrum actually supports that (OxFam notably doesn't).

The article is here

The video here

Greens smoking the railway whacky baccy

According to the NZ Herald Keith Locke wants to make you pay to reinstate the long gone Auckland-Whangarei passenger rail service. Why?

He says "With the price of oil rising, people are looking more and more at alternatives to car travel. Sure, there are buses, but a lot of people, including myself, like train travel - it's smoother and more sociable, plus rail travels a different route to the highway."

So he likes trains, and it's for meeting people and it's a different route. Yeah man all good reasons to take more money from taxpayers. Sheesh.

He says the line needs fixing to be up to passenger standard, well it would be. However let's forget cost for a moment. There is a very simple reason why there hasn't been any passenger rail service on this line for over 30 years.

Travel time by bus - Auckland-Whangarei: 2hrs 20-40mins
Travel time by car - Auckland-Whangarei: 2hrs 20mins (if you're really really good)
Travel time by air - Auckland-Whangarei: 35min plus assume 30min check in and 1-1.5hr time to/from airports
Travel time by train (when last operating, diesel railcar)- Auckland-Whangarei; 4hrs 10min

Want to waste near 2 hours socialising and enjoying a circuitous route by train?

15 July 2008

NZ assembled locomotives? no don't, really!

The desperate cry of the economic nationalist wanting jobs for his electorate.

New Zealand hasn't assembled a mainline locomotive in decades, and there is a good reason for that. It is the same reason New Zealand doesn't assemble cars or planes - it is far too high tech to be done in a country that has a relatively high cost of labour and hardly enough demand to justify the capital needed to do it.

It harks back to the nonsense of asking Sony, JVC and the like to disassemble TVs manufactured in Indonesia or China, so that kiwi drones could screw them back together again. China does it from scratch because the labour is cheap and demand is high - New Zealand has neither of those.

So when Trevor Mallard, keen to spend your money says "It's probably a very logical thing to do from a currency perspective, from a value for money perspective.". Well Trevor it wasn't in the 1980s when locomotives were imported complete from the UK for the main trunk electrification, it wasn't in the 1970s when locomotives were imported complete from Canada and the USA.

Locomotives have been re-engined in New Zealand, but let's face it, your local mechanic can put in a new engine in your car - but you wouldn't trust him to have get all the parts from Toyota and put it together would you?

The last locomotives assembled in New Zealand were a handful of shunters in the mid 1980s.

Now the workshops have manufactured freight wagons successfully and economically, and successfully refurbished most of the passenger rolling stock on the network. However, the new electric units Wellington will be getting in a couple of years aren't being assembled in NZ for a good reason. Rob Muldoon and the North Korean style economics of "self reliance bugger the cost" are long gone!

Veitch and real issues

Tony Veitch would not be an issue for the government per se, if the state didn't own TVNZ. Then it would be the matter of a violent man and his victim, and whether or not charges were or weren't brought, and whether she sued for exemplary damages or not. It's interesting to people because he was such a public figure, and frankly what he had to say never interested me one moment.

However, whilst the media circle this issue like piranhas (nothing so feral as the media turning on its own), it remains painfully incapable of offering any educated debate on major political issues that have an impact upon the whole country. Like whether or not education should remain a state monopoly, like whether the state should continue to own the dominant free to air broadcasting channels, like whether the welfare state and the system of pay and neglect is causing more harm than good in low income parts of New Zealand.

Why do people read blogs after all? Yes some bait you to the left and the right, and you know in advance what their views are, but others also give some intelligent insights.

and these are the unpaid blogs, the blogs that aren't run by the newspaper websites. For example, simply because it is my profession, I have yet to see a single New Zealand mainstream media outlet give consistently well researched coverage of transport or censorship issues. The tendency is to quote whatever lobby group or mainstream political reactions there are and take it from there.

"Me too" wants to spend more of your money

Labour has pledged over $400 million of your taxes (not petrol tax but general tax) to pay for the frightfully expensive Transmission Gully motorway. This doesn't even cover half the cost.

Now politicians pushing Transmission Gully are pushing a simple truth about democracy and how people think.

Most of those who want Transmission Gully are simply gunning for the government to make other people pay for it - you see if central government pays, it will be virtually invisible to those who benefit from it, as on a per person basis nationwide we are talking about over $250 for every man, woman and child. Politicians can hide that through borrowing. For property owners in Kapiti, Mana and Pukerua Bay, this is nothing compared to the uplift in values they will experienced. John Key wants the votes of people out there and Wellingtonians generally - he's willing to make the whole country pay for this piece of pork.

John Key could have said the following on Transmission Gully:

"Look, Ministers shouldn't be involved in decisions about what roads are built where. We have had nine years of Labour meddling in the decisions of government agencies as to what road funding should be built on, with special funds for "regional development", "walking and cycling" and goldplating of projects for little apparent benefit. Labour delayed the bypass of Orewa that is currently being built, and advanced other projects instead. It delayed Wellington's Inner City Bypass to placate the Greens through to the 2002 election. It suddenly found money for Tauranga Harbourlink to placate Winston. National wont play favours with motoring taxes.

You see I don't know whether or when Transmission Gully should be built. No Prime Minister should be making these decisions, because spending money on something so large takes money away from other projects. In fact Transmission Gully can't be funded by existing motoring taxes alone, so it would mean either taking more money in taxes or asking the users to pay for it. I say if the private sector is willing to pay for it, and users are willing to pay through tolls, let it be built. However I wont promise to spend over $1 billion on a big road in Wellington, because next week I might be asked about a big road in Auckland, and then one in Christchurch, and Hamilton and so on. What I will promise is I'll take politics out of road funding decisions once again, and let the decision on Transmission Gully be one of merit - not one of politics".

What he actually said according to the Dominion Post was:

"His party, if elected, would look at increasing the Crown contribution." Oh so general taxpayers in Invercargill, Auckland and everywhere else should pay for a big motorway to Kapiti?

"It's a possibility. We need to put it into the mix. It's a big issue and obviously things can move around. There's got to be a point where it works." Does there? Maybe it doesn't John. Maybe it's an expensive political bribe.

National would also introduce a greater use of debt-funding and relax provisions for public-private partnerships for major projects such as Transmission Gully.

"I think it can be built. A solution is going to have to be found."

John, it's just "me too" isn't it? Spending more taxes so you can buy a bigger slice of pork than Labour.

Embassy gets offended

The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is upset that the Wellington Film Festival is showing an animated film called Persepolis, which clearly offends their sensibilities.

According to the Dominion Post it says the film is ""full of lies and unreal fantasy", "exploitative and unfair" and "anti-peace and insulting".

Iran should know, since its leader called for Israel to be wiped off the map, since it is Iran that has been testing old missiles in a show of "mine's bigger than your's" and Iran that hosts a holocaust denial conference. It is Iran where men are routinely executed for being homosexuals, teenage girls who have been raped may get executed and girls are imprisoned who defend themselves against rapists.

So to the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran quite simply - go fuck yourselves. You have no moral ground to claim over the Wellington Film Festival. If you can represent a misogynistic bigoted violent government and not be offended by that, then your opinion isn't worth spitting on. The world will be a better place when you're mindless filthy twisted bigoted bloodthirsty terrorist breeding regime is overthrown.

14 July 2008

11 July 2008

So what if the Maori Party rejects Labour

John Key will do a deal, he'll sell out National to a neo-Marxist authoritarian racist political party and the result will be more taxpayers' money to organisations that this party thinks are important, and the Maori seats (and local authority Maori seats) will remain. This party that only now acknowledges that the situation in Zimbabwe is bad, but carefully doesn't blame Mugabe or Zanu-PF, that hitches itself to the Barack Obama groupies (ignoring that he votes for higher agricultural protectionism), will be embraced by National.

After all, it needs policies to come from somewhere other than Labour doesn't it?

Posh isn't that posh

Victoria Beckham flying Air New Zealand (according to The Sun)?

Seriously, how poor is that!

Now I'm not saying Air New Zealand is bad. She would have flown Business Premier, which is one of the better business classes around.

However that is my point - it is BUSINESS class. A class that anyone one a high income can afford. Air New Zealand has no First Class.

What the hell is she doing flying LA to London on business class?

She should be on a private jet - it's how Simon Cowell and Sharon Osbourne travel between California and London. Is David getting too cheap?

Even if that wasn't available, how about first class? BA and Air France both have perfectly reasonable First Class cabins on direct flights on that route. United and American also have First Class, but Air NZ would be as good.

Oh and so why is this in the news in the first place? The flight had a bird enter an engine before takeoff so was cancelled and she was allegedly in "airline pjs and no makeup" which wouldn't do to return, and it wouldn't do to be bussed to the terminal (yes read the Sun if you care). Now I know Air NZ doesn't have pjs (unless this is a very new and welcome addition to the service), so she was taking used airline pjs!

Anyway, unless there is some record shortage of private jets, this is not the way someone of her wealth should be travelling. It's how I travel.

The new cheaper Aston Martin

Hey guess what, I've found an Aston Martin that is cheaper than a new DB9, it does almost everything as good as the DB9 but starts at £83,000 instead of £110,850. It's the V8 Vantage.


Problem is, of course, I have money committed at lots of other things, so like hell can I afford either one.

However, the idea that you shouldn't pursue something you can't afford doesn't bother some Wellington local authorities. According to the Dominion Post they are crowing about how the new design for Transmission Gully "saves $275 million". Hmmm really? It "saves" money that actually nobody has in the first place, just like the V8 Vantage is a saving over the DB9.

You see the potential users of Transmission Gully wont pay anywhere near enough money to pay for more than maybe 10% of the road's financing costs, the project itself costs more than all road projects underway throughout the country in one go, and even the money earmarked by the government for it is less than half the cost.

So Wellington Mayor Kerry Prendergast is dead right when she says "At the moment you'd be hard pressed to start it at all" and that it is in never-never land without a vast increase in funding. However the money can't come from road users without an increase in fuel tax, of around 5c/l ACROSS THE COUNTRY, which would raise about $150m a year. You might ask why you in Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Christchurch or anywhere else should pay more for petrol largely so people living in the Kapiti Coast north of Wellington can have a choice of routes to get to work in the morning.

You see Transmission Gully is a very expensive solution looking for a problem. Safety isn't it, as relatively modest amounts of money have been spent on upgrading the current road. Congestion isn't it, as it is now pretty modest at peak times, and congestion north of the route is far more significant (which it will exacerbate). The only remaining argument is the bizarre notion that Wellington needs another route out and in in the event of an earthquake. Of course given the Rimutaka's have a road, and there is a port means this is rather specious. What is this route meant to do?? Is it worth $1billion of money from those who never benefit from the project to pay for some rather peculiar insurance policy?

Porirua Mayor Jenny Brash is well intentioned, but basically this is an enormous project to benefit a few suburbs in her city - Kapiti wants it because it is a subsidy for Kapiti dwellers commuting to Wellington.

I typically believe it is better to build roads than railways, but roads shouldn't be built when the users aren't prepared to pay for them. Politicians are looking for ways to make you pay for a road that you don't use - this is a small example ($1 billion) that is about having a cool head and saying no. Labour isn't saying no, but passing it on to local government (and giving it petrol tax raising powers!), Peter Dunne is addicted to this road, and National wont say anything because it doesn't like saying no. Wellington can't afford an Aston Martin.

10 July 2008

ACT on law and order

Gonzo Freakpower (Will De Cleene) posts on his concern with the ACT law and order (or as they call it "Crime and punishment" policy) as it seems to approve of extensive surveillance. Specifically he mentions this comment:

"It is easy - if we have the right relationship with our traditional allies and they provide us with intelligence - to observe the movement of cars and individuals without the need for kicking in doors or planting bugs and GPS locators (although, clearly, the latter technologies have their role)."

and more. Which is somewhat disturbing. The trend towards surveillance of the innocent has been increasing in the UK and the US, and should stop in NZ. Sadly ACT doesn't get this.

However, I did think Heather Roy just touched upon something important when she said this is a political initiative:

"* Disruption to the gang's 'customer market'. Prostitution reform helped this. State run gambling helps this. Banning marijuana and party pills does not help, but provides them with customers."

Yes it implies some form of legalisation of marijuana and party pills. May not be full legalisation, but it might see some liberalisation that takes attention from peaceful adult use and focuses on children and harm minimisation.

So ACT, give up on surveillance and the big brother state - but think more about how to not use the criminal justice system to deal with how people run their own lives. One step back, one step forward?

Iran sabre rattles

According to the BBC, Iran has test fired nine missiles, including a new missile with the capability of hitting Tel Aviv. Is Iran trying to provoke or trying to deter? This wont deter, it will scare - and scared Israel is more likely to strike. Ahmadinejad may want war, because he isn't very bright. However, I doubt that many in Iran are happy about this move.

I fully expect the so-called "peace movement" to hold instantaneous protests at Iranian embassies, burning Iranian flags and calling for Iran to stop threatening its neighbours. Look forward to seeing some protest in Roseneath in Wellington for example.

Wont happen though will it?

The so-called "peace" movement never ever protests against militarism by anti-Western states, like Iran, North Korea or Russia. Yes remember those protests? The so-called "peace" movement is uninterested in peace, only surrender and disarmament.

It will be exceedingly dangerous if there is an attack on Iran in self defence - but given the choice between that and a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv, it is no choice at all. Since 1979 Iran has been consistently the most pernicious influence in the Middle East, providing financial, military and spiritual succour to terrorists there and elsewhere (the IRA included at one time). It is a thoroughly vile and despotic regime. The preference has to be that Iran backs off, Ahmadinejad is displaced, it opens up its facilities for inspection and it backs off from its Islamist imperialism.