So the UK votes to leave and the PM decides to leave, but not now. The Chancellor of the Exchequer hides, and beyond the Bank of England printing a few billion, nothing else happens.
The EU has already decided to play tough and has its own position, which is essentially "fuck off, the walls are going up, deal with it". Although Germany is being much more nuanced.
The Conservative Party has to find a new leader, and from that a new Cabinet and a policy on negotiations. Labour meanwhile is going the same way. It is likely a new Conservative leader/PM will call a General Election on a manifesto of leading the UK into a new open, free-trading world with a new free trading relationship with the EU. Leaving the EU requires the UK to initiate it formally, which the EU is begging for, but the Government would rather delay because it changes its bargaining position.
Yet that could be problematic, not least because a key plank of those fighting to leave the EU is to end free movement of people with the EU, and all countries in the EU Single Market (including non-EU Norway and Iceland) all have signed up to free movement, and even non Single Market Switzerland has, although it does have extensive restrictions on new residents having access to any government provided services.
Meanwhile, leftwing nationalists have jumped on an opportunity. Sinn Fein wants a referendum on Irish unification, but the Northern Ireland First Minister has said no. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is flailing about wanting a second referendum on independence, but wont discuss:
1. The EU only lets non-members join, not current members split into joining and non-joining;
2. Joining the EU means joining the Euro;
3. 90% of Scottish trade is with the UK, Scotland in the EU would mean any EU trade barriers with the UK also apply to Scottish trade with the rest of the UK.
Spain, showing it really hasn't turned as far from Francoism as it would have liked, is demanding co-sovereignty over Gibraltar.
Meanwhile, the young leftwing social justice warrior types (Generation SnowFlake some have called them, for their "safe spaces", being "triggered" by hurt feelings and constantly protesting about what is offended) feel "betrayed" about the old "ruining their futures". However, the truth is that the majority of the young didn't care enough to vote as revealed by Sky News below.
% who got through our final #EUref poll turnout filter by age group:— Sky Data (@SkyData) June 25, 2016
Whinging about democracy when it doesn't go your way, whilst embracing it otherwise, is beyond the pale, as are some of the hate filled attacks on older votes coming from those whose own identity politics is supposed to decry hate speech. The truth being that the so-called liberal leftwing anti-hate, anti-violence activists are full of hate and quite happily embrace violence to get their "own way". It's emotion laden petulance, of the kind you would have only seen from the fringes of the far-right and conspiracy theorists had the vote gone to Remain.
So what should happen now? (notwithstanding who the PM and Government is)
1. The Government should announce the key planks of a new relationship with the EU around trade, investment, movement of people and co-operation, that it seeks to adopt. It should clarify to the entire country that it is not going to be a UK of isolationism, but one of openness.
2. The Government should make it clear to all EU passport holders in the UK that no-one will be deported, except under existing arrangements for threats to national security or criminals. No EU residents need fear this, nor will their property be affected or businesses, and if anyone threatens them they should go to the Police.
3. The PM should make it clear that there will be no referendum on Scottish independence this side of Brexit, but that the Government will consult with the Scottish government and parliament on the deal it seeks with the EU. It is precipitous to talk about Scottish independence until Scotland sees the new deal negotiated with the EU.
4. The PM should make it clear that there will be no referendum on Northern Ireland joining Ireland unless the preconditions of the Good Friday Agreement are met, but that equally it cannot happen until the new deal with the EU is negotiated AND negotiations are concluded with the Republic of Ireland.
5. The PM should go to Dublin and discuss the future relationship and reassure that no border controls will be reinstated.
6. The PM should go to Germany and talk, extensively, about how to make this work, and then go to all other EU Member State capitals, and the EFTA Member States too.
7. The Government should go to the WTO to discussing reviving membership.
8. The PM should visit USA, China, Japan and other trading partners and say that it wants to have open, freer trading relationships and the UK will be open for business and people.
9. Finally, the PM should make it clear that there wont be a second referendum on membership and that those who want to claim it is unfair, that this is democracy and the task now is to bring the country together and work for a new relationship with the EU and the world that demonstrably proves the claims of the Remain activists wrong.