As I usually do, I have painstakingly gone through every electorate and done a rather random set of selections for who I think is worth voting for.
No it isn't strategic, it isn't designed to create an overhang, or maximise support for any party, it is rather a bit of a test as to who I might pick based on what they have said or done to increase individual freedom, reduce the size of the state and turn back past attempts at bigger government, more regulation and more tax. Sometimes it is personal, supporting people who seem like they are good sort, or opposing those who are sociopaths or stupid. It do actively encourage voting against MPs or candidates from the Greens and Te Pati Maori, because of their antagonism to individual freedom, private property rights and their incessant cosplaying on the side of Hamas and Jew hating Palestinian activism. For Te Pati Maori it is also their indifference to the war in Ukraine and fundamental belief that people who don't embrace their ethno-nationalist ideology are outsiders to be treated as lesser citizens.
A lot of what I suggest is, on balance, giving support to those who show a bit of determination to wind things back and reduce power, even a little. However, I also support rejecting the complacency and the utterly milquetoast banality of so many candidates (and MPs), whose statements indicate they stand for no philosophy, no principles, and are unafraid of upsetting anyone. I don't have any time for those people or the parties that put them forward.
You'll see that in most cases I am choosing between National and ACT, and when I pick ACT candidates in most cases, it is because the National candidate is either uninterested in freedom or uninterested in anything beyond slogans and apple pie. Occasionally I pick others, such as for the ALCP, who are at least interested in one piece of liberalisation. Sometimes I pick Labour candidates, usually to defeat the Greens or Te Pati Maori, but not exclusively. I don't pick Opportunity candidates, because nobody needs to. Occasionally I suggest an independent.
Anyway, it's partly a bit of a laugh, but also an exercise is thinking a bit more about this vote. The party vote decides most of the makeup of Parliament, but not all of it. Electorate votes are about endorsing individuals, and you don't need to endorse any if the choices are poor, and a lot of the time they are.
That's why I have rated my choices as high, medium or low. High priority is because the candidate is very good, or the candidate he or she can defeat is particularly bad. Medium indicates the candidate is ok, or the opponent isn't. Low indicates you can not bother at all, and it wont really matter.
So here we go...
Auckland Central
Chloe Swarbrick needs to be defeated here, because her disgraceful appeasement of and touting of Hamas propaganda deserves to be rejected. The best chance to do this is Nationals’ Candace Kinser. There isn’t much the latter has said that indicates a wholehearted commitment to National Party principles. I’d be lukewarm about her if it weren’t about weakening the Greens. Labour candidate Naisi Chen seems far too enamoured with the Chinese Communist Party and appeasing it to deserve your vote, she is arguably worse than Swarbrick.
Candace Kinser, National. High priority.
Banks Peninsula
National’s Vanessa Weenink holds this seat on a slender majority. Labour’s previous MP Tracey McLennan is standing again, and we really don’t need a union organiser back in Parliament. Conventionally, I’d support Weenink, but she was a Labour Party campaigner recently. So she’s not really going to be focused on National Party principles. Vote instead for Zac Wellman of ACT.
Zac Wellman, ACT. Moderate priority.
Botany
You don’t want to vote for Chris Luxon do you now? He’ll almost certainly win, but if you want to give him a bloody nose then vote Ali Dahche of ACT.
Ali Dahche, ACT. High priority.
Christchurch Central
Old anti-Israeli activist Duncan Webb is thankfully retiring, so it is a more open contest, although it seems unlikely National’s Dale Stephens (you might remember him from TV) can win. George Hampton, a diplomat, is the Labour candidate, and seems inoffensive at best. You could try Stephens to knock Labour out, but otherwise you can’t go wrong with Blair Anderson of ALCP.
Blair Anderson, ALCP. Low priority.
Christchurch East
Labour’s Reuben Davidson will likely win, although it isn’t a sure thing, but National’s Alexandra Davids is an experience local body politician, which seems unlikely to be that favourable towards reducing the scale of government. Toni Severin of ACT has a long record of being in favour of less government, so give her your vote.
Toni Severin, ACT. Moderate priority.
Coromandel
National’s Scott Simpson is almost certainly going to win here, he’s a social liberal and was a leader of the Bluegreens, although his maiden speech said good things about not being reliant on the state. Given he is a sure thing, you can think about voting elsewhere. Ignore independent Steven Hart, he’s a nutcase. Mike McCormick of ACT is a better bet to send a message.
Mike McCormick, ACT. Low priority
Dunedin
Rachel Brooking of Labour will win, but she’s hardly in favour of private property rights having worked on Labour’s reform of the RMA. Presidents of university student unions are also not known for their belief in individual freedoms. So you’d be well placed to vote against her. Philippines born Kristine Asuncion is the National candidate and is a business owner. I wont hold her working for HR against her, but if you would rather a surer thing about freedom, then Adrian McDermott from ALCP is another choice.
Kristine Asuncion, National. Low priority.
East Cape
Dana Kirkpatrick took this seat back for National in 2023, but it is far from safe. Kirkpatrick seems alright, but given it is a seat Labour could readily take it is worth seeing who she is up against. Jo Luxton is a Labour list MP, although she did grow up in Gisborne (so is not a total carpetbagger). She set up an early childhood education centre before being an MP. Given she lists Maryan Street as a mentor, I don’t think she’s an improvement on Kirkpatrick, so give Kirkpatrick another go.
Dana Kirkpatrick, National. Medium priority.
East Coast Bays
Erica Stanford will win this by a landslide, so she doesn’t need your vote. She’s also a wet. She thinks the Greens could work with National and once supported students going on the School Strike for Climate, so she is hardly an asset in advancing education towards more choice and freedom. So send her a message, vote Sam Mills, ACT.
Sam Mills, ACT. Medium priority
Epsom
Curious choice here. People thinking strategically might think Seymour is getting in anyway, you might generate a National overhang with Paul Goldsmith being elected. You might, but why would you vote for Goldsmith at all? Seymour is fairly safe here, and he is perhaps the MP who most consistently, some of the time, talks about free markets and individual freedom, although he largely leads a party that panders to populism nowadays, not fundamental reform. Goldsmith has been good on some law reform, such as on stopping hate speech legislation, abolishing the Broadcasting Standards Authority and reducing the legislation that refers to Te Tiriti. So he wouldn’t be a bad choice from a freedom point of view and is one of the better National MPs on that front. He ought to have earned a winnable electorate by now, and given National’s party vote position, he may well be out, so flip a coin. I’d probably pick Seymour myself, but Goldsmith is a reasonable choice in this election as well.
David Seymour, ACT. Medium priority.
Glendene
Carmel Sepuloni is the MP here, for Labour, and is likely to win, so you wont want to endorse her, but are the alternatives any better? Sunil Kumar for National is a business owner with extensive community links, so he would be a better bet.
Sunil Kumar, National. Medium priority
Hamilton East
Ryan Hamilton is the MP here for National, and it is typically a marginal seat. Is he any better than Georgie Dansey for Labour? Probably. On the downside he was a city councillor, but he did say in his maiden speech “I believe in less government, personal choice, and responsibility—a Government that sets up the right macro policy settings that enables success, and then gets out of the way”. That’s a start. Georgie Dansey is a list MP of barely a few months, but drearily she is a teacher and a unionist. We don’t need more of those, so keep Hamilton there.
Ryan Hamilton, National. Medium priority.
Hamilton West
Tama Potaka is probably fairly safe here as the National MP, but it is a swing seat historically. He is up against Dr Myra Williamson for Labour, a law lecturer. She wrote a piece for The Conversation called “Compulsory voting has boosted turnout in Australia – is it time NZ tried it?”. She supports it. She wants to criminalise you for not voting. She also believes Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and the NZ Superannuation fund should divest from Israel. She’s be a highly malign influence on freedom in any Labour government so deserves to be actively opposed. Vote for Potaka to keep her out of Parliament.
Tama Potaka, National. High priority.
Hauraki-Waikato
Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke has been a bit of a star for TPM, and has wisely kept out of the internal fracas about the party’s governance and policies. She seems to be good at hyperbole, having described being “ram raided” before the previous election, before saying her “privacy” was “ram raided”. The BBC and Time Magazine have lauded her, because, of course, nothing is more exciting to them than a leftwing activist. She cosplays as a communist because, well, it’s cool yeah? Much better would be to vote for Kingi Kiriona of Labour, because he has substance to back him up with experience, and it helps thwart TPM’s undemocratic overhang strategy. Brief mention for Neil Denby, standing as an independent, for nothing apparently.
Kingi Kiriona, Labour, High priority.
Henderson
Another new electorate where Phil Twyford is trying to have a shot at keeping. I recall Twyford being booed when he dared to suggest that Hamas be condemned after 7th October, so he gets a little credit for that, but he really ought to retire. He is also behind the controversy about claiming too many people with “Chinese sounding names” were buying houses in Auckland. It’s time he should go, Angee Nicholas for National seems ok, but that’s about it.
Angee Nicholas, National, Low priority
Hutt South
On paper this is probably a loss for Chris Bishop, and if it isn’t it’s because he has done a lot of work to meet people in this traditionally Labour electorate. You’ll want to avoid perennially ultracrepidarian Ginny Andersen (who will get in on the list probably), and he’s one of the few National Cabinet Ministers who show some passion for reform. Advancing congestion pricing and replacing fuel tax with RUC are enormous steps forward, as is wanting a long term approach to infrastructure funding (and for housing prices to be lower in the long run). He deserves to win in this usually Labour seat, as a National MP who actually wants change, rather than tinkering with Labour's policies, but he does have a lot more to do.
Chris Bishop, National, High priority
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
This is already a Labour seat with Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, so the strategy is to keep it this way to stop TPM from taking it. The Greens have a shot here, but the safest move is to keep it Labour to reduce the TPM overhang.
Cushla Tangaere-Manual, Labour. Medium priority.
Ilam
Hamish Campbell for National holds this seat and amply beat Raf Manji from “Opportunities” in 2023. So this time he’s probably safe. He has a Ph.D in viruses and cancer, and perhaps the most interesting statement he made in his maiden speech was “It has become very easy take offence at someone who may believe something different to ourselves, whether it be on climate change, vaccine science, race, or culture. We have come to think it’s our right to take offence, and if you disagree, you’re not just wrong but amoral. We should not place a high value on our outrage.” He has not said anything else about philosophy at all. A reasonable alternative is Ken Harpur of ACT.
Ken Harpur, ACT. Low priority
Invercargill
National’s Penny Simmonds is pretty much a sure thing here. She’s ok, she’s been dismantling the centralised Polytech Te Pukenga, and is moderately social conservative. Labour’s Janice Lee talks of food sovereignty, which is a red flag for leftie nonsense. Simmonds has been pushing for academic freedom and freedom of speech at universities, so she is a fair choice.
Penny Simmonds, National. Medium priority.
Kaikōura
This is another safe National seat, held by Stuart Smith. He is a social liberal within National. One of his Bills was to liberalise cellar door wine tasting, which is unsurprising given he was chair of the Winegrowers Association. However, he is now advocating more direct local political control of local authorities, which seems odd, and he is a member of the Bluegreens (although he isn’t a fan of Luxon apparently). Now there is another choice worth considering, although he’s far from perfect. Oliver-John Hill-Hughes is an independent candidate who touts himself as a Maori conservative independent, who supports lower taxes, eliminating welfare dependency and leaving the Paris agreement. I’m not with him on redirecting some defence spending to a new Ministry of Works and forcing oil companies to set prices well in advance, but he’s different. I’m not going to say you should vote for him, but he deserves an honourable mention. Tom Spooner is more conventional, with ACT, but really you don’t need to bother.
Tom Spooner, ACT. Low priority
Kaipara ki Mahurangi
Chris Penk had this seat, so National is trying to hold onto it with Jessica Rowe, a former journalist who then became a diplomat. However, I’m not so sure National deserves to hang onto this safe seat and she’s ok if uninspiring. Nine people are standing here including fat Nazi Kim Dotcom’s wife. Simon Court of ACT is a better bet here, just to send the Nats a message.
Simon Court, ACT. Medium priority.
Kapiti
With the Otaki electorate broken up, National MP Tim Costley is trying to win this seat and has a fair chance, although it is no sure thing. Costley is an ex. RNZAF wing commander, and I gather he’s a good sort. He did say in his maiden speech that he believes in limited government and that we (as individuals) hold solutions to the problems we face. His main opponent is a scold called Sophie Handford for Labour. She founded the “School Strike 4 Climate” movement, so of course thinks she knows best for everyone else. Few people are as ill-suited to be legislators than young loud finger-wagging scolds. A shout out to Richard Goode from Not a Party. He’s actually a libertarian and deserves your vote most of all,
Richard Goode, Not a Party. Low priority (he’d appreciate that)
Kenepuru
Mana MP Barbara Edmonds of Labour is standing in this redrawn electorate, which includes some of Mana and some of Ohariu (which has been eliminated). It is likely to be safe for her. Matthew Evetts of National is her biggest challenge, but he wont win. Choose Bob Wessex of Not a Party.
Bob Wessex, Not a Party. Low priority.
Māngere
One of Labour’s safest seats, Lemauga Lydia Sosene is the Labour MP, and yes many wont have even heard of her. She is standing again and was a Samoan church minister. A nice enough person, but you may want to put your vote elsewhere. National’s candidate is Rosemary Bourke, trying for a second time, which must be difficult. This seat, oddly, has a lot of candidates, including the notorious Kelvyn Alp. Manu Singh from ACT has the clearest indication of support for getting government out of the way of people.
Manu Singh, ACT. Low priority.
Manurewa
Manurewa is a safe Labour seat, held by Arena Williams, and has few candidates with only National, NZ First and Animal Justice offering alternatives. Williams was President of AUSA (of course), and has been part of Labour’s campaign to structurally separate the supermarkets, which is, of course, insane. It would be good to oppose Williams here, so Ghouse Majeed of National is your best bet. Not that I have much of an idea of what he believes in.
Ghouse Majeed, National. Low priority
Maungakiekie
National’s Greg Fleming won this seat from Labour, which is fairly marginal, as it tends to be won by whatever party is in government. The Labour MP he defeated, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, became a list MP and she is trying to win it back. Fleming is solidly conservative, having co-founded the conservative thinktank, the Maxim Institute. Having said that Fleming co-sponsored a members bill with Labour MP Camila Belich to fine companies for not reporting modern day slavery in their supply chains, which is quite the exercise in increasing compliance costs primarily for virtue signalling (and the National Party is promoting this on its webpage). So he’s socially conservative but economically moderate. Radhakrishnan has a Masters in “development studies” and was a policy analyst at the Ministry of Womens Affairs so she’s hardly going to want to keep a lid on the state. Given the seat is marginal you may be tempted to vote for Fleming, but I’m not. Pick Juan Alvarez de Lugo of ACT instead as he talks of balancing the books without increasing taxes, and one law for all.
Juan Alvarez de Lugo, ACT. Medium priority.
Mt Albert
Labour’s most marginal seat is held by Helen White, and of course was Jacinda Ardern’s seat. Helen White was a union lawyer who infamously mocked Chloe Swarbrick as “not being serious” in 2020 as a candidate for Auckland Central, then lost. Failing upwards, she thinks employment is a “right” even though she’s never generated a job in her life. National is running Melissa Lee, who has been a list MP for six terms and proved to be useless as Minister for Media and Communications. As odious as White is, Lee isn’t much better and it’s disgraceful that National couldn’t be bothered replacing her as a candidate here. Anyone else might have a better chance, but if you believe in the best and brightest succeeding you need to purge the mediocre. Adding to the mix is Qiulae Wong, the Opportunity Party leader, but you don’t want to vote for someone who doesn’t think businesses have a purpose, unless she and her ilk help with the latest version of “Triple Bottom Line” reporting. So you’re left with Alex Price of ACT, who talks about keeping taxes low and reducing government waste. Tick him to send National a message.
Alex Price, ACT. High priority
Mt Maunganui
This is a new electorate, with Bay of Plenty MP Tom Rutherford standing here. He is likely to win, having had one term in Parliament, and previously having been a communications executive (uh oh). He seems a nice enough chap, his maiden speech includes “At 18, on my first day as a new student here at Victoria University, I was punched and knocked out by an intoxicated stranger when I stood up for an older gentleman who was just trying to get his groceries home safely”. So you could do worse, such as Helen White or Melissa Lee. Labour is punting up Rhieve Grey who is a “Rhodes Scholar with postgraduate degrees from the University of Oxford in Public Policy and Evidence-Based Policy” which begs the question as to why he is in an unwinnable seat, although I’m not sure he’s in the right party. Cameron Luxton is the ACT candidate (and list MP), and far better qualified than either of them, so given Rutherford will win anyway, give Luxton the tick. After all he did say in his maiden speech “My trust in the sanctity of the individual, the rule of law, free speech, property rights, these are what I am here to defend, they are not physical items, they cannot be hoarded away in a quiet place and taken out just to be displayed and looked at. These treasures must be put in the world, defended and lived up to”
Cameron Luxton, ACT. Medium priority
Mt Roskill
This is usually a Labour seat, and Carlos Cheung from National took it from little Michael Wood, the former Transport Minister who presided over Auckland Light Rail and vast inflation in construction costs. He’s a former union organiser who really shouldn’t be placed near power again. Cheung is from Hong Kong and has a Ph.D in biological science. He was less government waste, more housing, toughness on crime and education to teach children resilience. He deserves another term, and it is good to keep Wood out.
Carlos Cheung, National. Medium priority.
Napier
Napier tends to go the way of the government of the day. Stuart Nash was deselected by Labour in 2023 and has joined NZ First, but has been deselected again. Katie Nimon is the National MP now, she having heritage from one of Hawke’s Bay longest running bus companies which was bought out a few years ago. A Bachelor of Design and Executive MBA from Massey might not impress, but she did run the family bus business successfully. She did say in her maiden speech:
Instead of playing political whack-a-mole, I strongly believe in Adam Smith’s theory of the invisible hand. The argument for limited Government is a strong one, which is one of the many reasons why I stand here on this side of the House. I don’t claim to have all the answers, but you can’t spend your way out of every problem, nor can you regulate your way out of it. All you get is debt and dependency.
That’s worth having in the National caucus. Labour is putting up a doctor, an actual doctor, as well as a unionist, who is campaigning on, wait for it, how hard it is to get a GP in Napier. So he should be one, not be an MP. Typical socialists think other people should do the work they want the state to make happen. Vote for Nimon.
Katie Nimon, National. Medium priority.
Nelson
Nelson was unusual as one of the regional cities that didn’t go National in 2023. It shouldn’t surprise, as it was held by leftie Nick Smith under the National brand for so long, although Rachel Boyack held onto it by a tiny margin in 2023, so it arguably up for grabs. Boyack is a unionist whose maiden speech includes the gem that Sonja Davies was right to try to stop closure of the isolated little railway line to Glenhope and believing that the system is “purposely designed” against workers. She also complained about ACT MP Todd Stevenson opposing taxpayer funding of the arts. National’s candidate is Blair Cameron, trying a second time to win the seat. He has worked for the IMF and World Bank. As close as this race is, on balance Cameron is probably better than Boyack, but he isn’t that interesting as there is nothing about his own philosophy or beliefs in any of his material. Former ACT MP Chris Baillie is an alternative, but you could vote for Cameron if you’re doing nothing else.
Blair Cameron, National. Medium priority.
New Plymouth
This seat usually switches with governments, so David Macleod of National won this off Labour in 2023. Macleod was an electrician and an entrepreneur, which wins him points. Again it’s hard to know what his philosophical beliefs are. There are only three other candidates here (Labour, Opportunity and independent). The Labour candidate is Amanda Clinton-Gohdes, who sees climate action as a key local priority. There isn’t much to choose from here. Maybe Macleod’s background is superior to the local councillor, but he’s likely to win anyway, so don’t be too fussed.
David Macleod, National. Low priority.
North Shore
Simon Watts is a shoo-in in this safe National seat. He’s better on climate change than the previous government, but by forcing amalgamations he is taking an overly simplistic view of local government that bigger is better. He is no intellectual heavyweight. You’d be better giving Karen Chhour your vote. She opposed the ban on tobacco sales to adults and memorably got flack from Kelvin Davis because she is Maori and she was accused of looking at the world through “vanilla lens”. Give Watts a shock.
Karen Chhour, ACT. Medium priority.
Northcote
Dan Bidois won this from Labour in 2023. His story isn’t bad, as he dropped out of school for being a delinquent, did a butchery apprentice, survived bone cancer while he was there and later became an economist. He did work for Deloitte, then the NZ Initiative, so that levels out. He is opposed to voluntary euthanasia, but voted to decriminalise abortion. That’s a life story far superior to most. He’ll probably win again. He defeated Labour’s Shanan Halbert who is standing again, and is a shadow of Bidois. Martin Lundqvist is the ACT candidate, but I think Bidois has promise and could do with your support.
Dan Bidois, National. Medium priority.
Northland
Northland, like East Cape, is an electorate where a fair part of the population is actually enrolled in the Maori roll, so it ends up going National. It’s usually National, although Winston Peters held it for two years, and Labour did from 2020-2023. Shane Jones tries to win it as well, but came third in 2023. National’s MP is Grant McCallum who is a farmer and yet another member of the Bluegreens. In his maiden speech he talked about joining the Bluegreens after Simon Upton and Nick Smith founded it. Two National MPs whose legacy with the RMA and defending it against any useful reform has been so damaging, although it isn’t his fault. Labour isn’t proposing Willow-Jean Prime again (she’s standing for Te Tai Tokerau), but rather Ashleigh Latimer who is a community health leader. None of this is particularly inspiring. Who else is there? There is Shane Jones, but you wont want him. Mark Cameron is the ACT candidate who has pulled out of the ACT list because he is very unwell, having had kidney failure and a heart attack (following his son’s untimely death two years ago). He isn’t going to win, and almost certainly doesn’t want to, but give him your vote. He is one of the few MPs to actually say openly that want local authorities do about emissions has no impact on climate change. If it weren’t Cameron, I’d tick Jeffery Lye for ALCP.
Mark Cameron, ACT. Low priority.
Ōtāhuhu
This is a new electorate and is likely to go Labour. Jenny Salesa is the Labour MP for Panmure-Otahuhu who hopes to win this. She shouldn’t. She lost all Ministerial positions after the 2020 election for a reason. To put it politely, she doesn’t work well with others and should be kept well away from power. Just vote for National’s Lalit Arya to get this emotionally incontinent, entitled, angry person out of Parliament.
Lalit Arya, National. High priority.
Pakuranga
This seat is very much a safe seat for Simeon Brown for National. He’s going to win, and he now has a record as a Minister, which has been a difficult one. He started with transport, turning around the war on motoring from Labour, and then to health which is a thankless portfolio. There are a long list of measures from the Labour government that he has stopped that he deserves some credit for, including Three Waters, Maori wards at local government (without local referenda) and has sought to end the politicisation of the Medical Council of NZ. Labour’s candidate, social worker Campbell Matthews, isn’t going to be better, and Parmjeet Parmar from ACT, notwithstanding constant racism she experiences from opponents, isn’t either.
Simeon Brown, National. Medium priority.
Palmerston North
This is a fairly safe Labour seat, with Tangi Utikere as the MP. He’s a nice enough guy qualified to be a teacher and was a local councillor, but there’s little reason to vote for him. His most likely challenger is National’s Ankit Bansal, who has a surprisingly short biography. He stood last time as well, which suggests National isn’t trying hard enough. There’s little reason to vote for him either. Flip a coin really.
Ankit Bansal, National. Low priority.
Papakura
Judith Collins has retired, so National’s Emma Chatterton is standing. It is a fairly safe National seat, so she has a good chance of winning. She is a senior advisor to Erica Stanford which isn’t exactly a background of understanding private enterprise or even a wider range of perspectives. Before then she worked for ImpactLab and for social investment under Bill English. Her press release indicates she has been a teacher as well, but it’s not that clear. Given it is a safe seat, it is quite something for National to pick her as candidate and nothing in her profile is inspiring around what she believes in. You might prefer ACT candidate Malkiat Singh, who is a robotics engineer and founder of Kings Eat Organics, a BioGro-certified organic farm and food business. At least he is more qualified and has taken some risks.
Malkiat Singh, ACT. Low priority
Port Waikato
This safe National seat sees Andrew Bayly retire, and National is proposing Matthew Paul. He’s another Bluegreen and is a “Managing Director of an environmental and landscape consultancy working across residential, infrastructure and local government projects”. All very well, but what does he believe in? Casey Costello is the high profile NZ First candidate, but Sarah Lochead-MacMillan from ACT is a better bet. At least her profile talks about a freer and more prosperous NZ. Matthew Paul doesn’t say that.
Sarah Lochead-MacMillan, ACT. Low priority.
Rangitata
This seat went to Labour in 2020, but appears safe for National now. James Meager is the MP. He’s a lawyer, but his career also includes the incestuous world of working in the offices of four National MPs (which I know impresses other MPs, but doesn’t impress the public). He gets points for his statement in his maiden speech that “Members opposite do not own Māori. Members opposite do not own the poor. Members opposite do not own the workers. No party and no ideology has a right to claim ownership over anything or anyone”. Labour is proposing Sange Malama, a School Attendance Officer, which is an honourable job, but Meager deserves another go.
James Meager, National, Medium priority
Rangitikei
This safe National seat is held by Suze Redmayne, a farmer who describes herself as fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. I gather she is a good sort. Labour’s Karl Severinsen is a social worker and former army officer who recalls Ruth Richardson as a reason he joined Labour. He has no chance of winning anyway. Former Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard of ACT came a strong third last time and is a list MP. At least he explicitly believes in free markets. So Redmayne or Hoggard would be ok, although I’d probably back Redmayne rather than split the vote here.
Suze Redmayne, National. Low priority.
Remutaka
Chris Hipkins really should be out of Parliament given what a mediocrity he was as a Minister, and how he desperately tried to copy National in his brief period as PM. This is a pretty safe seat for Labour, but you should try to frighten Hipkins by voting for National candidate Dr Zabeen Lateef. Yes I know she is working in the Strategy, Analytics and Reporting Office of Otago University, and she has a Ph.D in clinical virology and immunology, which seems like a waste, but please put Hipkins and his family out of their misery. Don’t bother with failed former Wellington Mayor Andy Foster for NZ First, or ACT’s Nigel Elder.
Zabeen Lateef, National. Medium priority.
Rotorua
Todd McClay is the National MP in this fairly safe seat. He’s uninspiring and he’s been there since 2008. He gets a little credit for voting against the Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation Act 2022, against the tide, but otherwise there’s no great reason to be enthused about voting for him. Fisher Wang for Labour looks like a schoolkid, and is on the District Council which counts against him. People who want to get into local government are rarely fit to be there. There is no ACT candidate here. Billy Brown is standing for NZ First and believes in the great replacement theory, which is unfortunate, as it would have been nice to give McClay a fright (and Brown has some sound views otherwise).
Todd McClay, National. Low priority.
Selwyn
Nicola Grigg is the (National) MP for this safe seat. She is Minister for Women and as such launched a “Gender Pay Gap toolkit” which is, of course, a monumental waste of money and is a fundamentally collectivist piece of nonsense. You could tick Iain Murray of ACT to send her a message, but so would Zoran Rakovic – an independent who bothered to create a website stating his position, which is practical, but not ideological. Murray would
Iain Murray, ACT. High priority
Southland
Joseph Mooney is the MP, for National and this is a very safe seat. He’s not going anywhere. Nor should he. His story about being 11 years old and the family going without food, and him travelling to Wellington from Hawke’s Bay with his younger brother, to try to reach Central Otago to pan for gold for money is quite something. Todd Stevenson of ACT gets credit for saying he doesn’t believe in taxpayer funding of the arts (which upset Nelson MP Rachel Boyack). Maybe give him a tick if you don’t think Mooney’s story is enough to show he has grit to be in Parliament.
Todd Stevenson, ACT. Low priority.
Taieri
Taieri was marginal for Labour in 2023, electing Ingrid Leary. To her credit she is a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (which is critical of China), but she also has supported a wealth tax in the past. Matthew French is the National candidate and he has a plausible chance of winning, although he isn’t exactly inspirational either. Still, I’d take a chance to oust Leary so.
Matthew French, National. Medium priority.
Takanini
Rima Nakhle is the incumbent Natuonal MP, but she isn’t a sure thing. She’s tough on drugs, and tough on crime, proposing 10 year prison sentences for drink driving, which just seems over the top. Unfortunately, no other candidates are really worth supporting. The most likely to unseat her is Labour’s Kharag Singh, and while he seems a decent enough chap, I think you could abstain reasonably here.
Don’t bother….
Tāmaki
Brooke van Velden is the outgoing ACT MP, so you have a real choice between National and ACT here. Max Harris is standing for Labour. He’s an odious former staffer for tankie British Labour MP and Corbynite, John McDonnell, who has previously glorified the IRA. James Christmas is standing for ACT, but he was a previous National list candidate. Mahesh Muralidhar is standing for National. In the Spinoff it was said that: “Christmas is “not a co-governance guy,” but a “treaty settlements guy”. He’s a “very big fan of charter schools”, a “big property rights guy” and reckons there’s unfinished business in proposals made by Seymour’s controversial Treaty principles bill”. Muralidhar was National’s Auckland Central candidate last election, and before I said although he has a MBA, don’t hold it against him. My hunch is Christmas has a battle on his hands, but I’d pick him over Muralidhar.
James Christmas, ACT. Medium priority
Taranaki-King Country
Barbara Kuriger is the National MP, and it’s a safe seat. She’s Deputy Speaker, which is fine, and benign. Ivana Jovivic from ACT is a better bet though.
Ivana Jovivic, ACT. Low priority
Taupō
Louise Upston is the National MP and it’s a safe seat. Chris Flatt is a unionist standing for Labour, so you can’t vote for him. Upston’s record on individual freedoms is very mixed. She opposed voluntary euthanasia, gay marriage and abortion legalisation, but ended up supporting bans on conversion therapy. Take from that what you will, she’s conservative, to a point. Nobody else here is really worth voting for, so don’t bother.
Don’t bother…
Tauranga
I’m old enough to think of this as the heartland of Winston Peters, but that ended some time ago. Sam Uffindell is the MP, and we all know about what haunts his political career. Jan Tinetti is the Labour candidate, and has been a list MP for nine years and is just another ex.teacher/unionist. Uffindell is going to win, so you don’t need to taint yourself by endorsing the ex. bully. Vote for Dr Tim Maltby, independent. He put his late cat on his website as a team member, so he deserves something for that. Bryan Norton for ACT is a fair alternative, given we haven’t a clue what Maltby stands for, other than he seems practically minded. Give the little guy a go.
Tim Maltby, Independent. High priority
Tukituki
The seat for Hastings and much of rural Hawke’s Bay is held by Catherine Wedd of National. Her background is typical National, but she’s an idiot. She introduced legislation to ban social media for under 16yos, despite the utter failure of such laws in Australia. The next step would be to require age ID for all internet access, which means personal ID and the end of internet anonymity. So she deserves to lose. There are few alternatives. The independents are nutters, Rob Douglas of ACT seems ok, and you can’t go wrong with Romana Manning of ALCP on one issue at least. However, I think Wedd needs a clearer message and that comes from losing. Dan Scott of Labour is a meteorologist and 22 years old. Hold your nose, and back him. Labour held this seat before, and can again.
Dan Scott, Labour. Medium priority.
Upper Harbour
National’s Cameron Brewer is the MP here, and he is probably fairly safe. He was a City Councillor for six years, which is not a reason to completely rule him out. He is a Minister for Commerce and Consumer Affairs, and Small Business and Manufacturing (the later roles are unnecessary), and is unremarkable at best. Panos Patros from ACT is a better bet, given Labour has little chance of taking this seat.
Panos Patros, ACT. Low priority
Waikato
Tim van de Molen is the National MP here, and he is a huge majority. He is a farmer, and was notable for allegedly being aggressive to a Labour MP. He’s probably not going to be a Minister, in part because of his personality. Unfortunately, none of the other candidates are inspirational as an alternative. Maybe give Ash Parmar of ACT your vote in the hope that Tim improves his performance in his next term
Ash Parmar, ACT. Low priority.
Waimakariri
National’s Matt Doocey, is the MP. He’s pretty safe here. As Tourism Minister he increased the International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy, so he’s not exactly a low tax man. His big focus is mental health. His maiden speech gave credit to Gerry Brownlee for the Christchurch recovery, which doesn’t wash. He seems a nice enough guy, but in a safe seat you can look for a better candidate. Labour list MP Dan Rosewarne is standing here, he is ex. Army, and is clearly not antagonistic to Western liberal democracies, which is rare enough in Labour, and honestly he could sit in the National Party without too much effort. He is too far down the list to get elected, so I’d give him the tick (the ACT candidate wont want it).
Dan Rosewarne, Labour. Medium priority.
Wairarapa
Mike Butterick is the MP for National, and while it is usually a National seat, it isn’t a fait accompli, as Kieran McAnulty, Labour list MP, is trying to win it back. Now we all know McAnulty is constantly named as a future Labour leader (as he well knows), so him winning Wairarapa is part of his career move to advance himself. Butterick is, a farmer. Ron Mark is the other high profile candidate, for NZ First, but he has little chance. The worst candidate is probably Lauren Craig for the Greens, who Co-founded “Students for Climate Solutions” and tried to stop new oil and gas exploration. Butterick’s maiden speech suggests he is a good egg:
Less government, not more. Our role is to solve problems, not create them; get the settings right, back up the bus, and leave people to get on with their lives. Personal responsibility: everyone has rights, but they also come with responsibility. Celebrating success, rewarding hard work: this country’s been built on the backs off those that have sold, made, fixed, and grown stuff, and we need to remember that and to encourage ambition and celebrate success. I think about those past and present that have and do contribute, and I’d make the point that we have a responsibility to be extremely focused on outcomes and fiscal discipline, as they have been and are in their own lives. We spend their money—it’s not Government money; it’s theirs, and it needs to be respected.
Mike Butterick, National. High priority.
Waitākere
Waitakere is a new electorate carved out of three others. Labour’s Vanushi Walters, list MP, is standing and the boundary changes means she may win. She’s an Oxford educated human rights lawyer. National is punting up Agnes Loheni, former list MP, who is a small business owner. They are quite different, being Sri Lankan background vs. Samoan, and Loheni being a social conservative. The worst candidate is Green list MP Steve Abel. The more interesting candidate is Bianca O’Keefe, who is an independent who has bothered to put together a website about herself and her views. That deserves credit in itself, and the detail she has included is admirable, even if some of her ideas are questionable. Her ideas are philosophically inconsistent, but she is thinking. That’s more than most of the other candidates. The issue here is that it’s a highly marginal seat. Walters may get in on the list, and she’s not particularly keen on individual freedom and free markets. Loheni on the other hand does have a good sense of individual responsibility, according to her 2017 maiden speech:
I’m the product of the compassion and gratitude my mother taught me and the resilience and hard work ethic my father instilled in me. I grew up very lucky, in stark contrast to many of my Pasefika community today, because growing up, there was no one telling us that the system was against us because we were Samoan kids. There was no one telling us we were impoverished migrant Samoan families living in destitute conditions. There was no one telling us that we needed to be taught differently from all other kids because of our culture. We were not subject to the soft bigotry of low expectation that exists today—the soft bigotry of low expectation that rips hope from our children, destroys faith in their ability to overcome life’s obstacles, creates jealousy and envy in our kids, and leaves them dependent on the whims of the State that says it knows better than their own families.
While encouraging Bianca O’Keefe is not dishonourable, she does need to have a bit of a peer review of her extensive thinking before she deserves support. Back Agnes Loheni for promoting individual responsibility.
Agnes Loheni, National. Medium priority
Waitaki
This is safe National country, with Miles Anderson the incumbent MP. Standard farming stock is Miles and he just had his first term. Bizarrely, Damien O’Connor, former West Coast-Tasman MP is standing in Waitaki. He’s been in Parliament since 1993, and most recently disgraced himself by being a patsy for the Chinese Communist Party, when he said Australia should follow NZ and be respectful to China. I wouldn’t be worried about O’Connor, he has no chance. One measure of an MP is his maiden speech and Anderson did say:
The (Clyde) dam was completed 30 years ago, and since then, we have collectively hidden behind a curtain of regulation when opportunity has knocked at our door. We have gone from a nation that undertook projects like the Waitaki hydro scheme to a nation that kowtows to activist pressure groups and gives up.
Finally, I want to talk about free speech and democracy. New Zealand has a proud history of championing free speech and democracy. I believe that tradition has been subverted in recent years. It seems that any opinion that isn’t supported by activists and/or so-called progressives is deemed extremist. Why is it that supposed liberals are so illiberal when it comes to hearing opposing views? As I stated earlier in this speech, a sense of fair play and respect for another’s point of view is the hallmark of democracy in New Zealand. We must not lose this bedrock principle of our democratic society in a rush to either extreme wokeness or due to intolerance. We should all be able to agree to disagree in a mature and tolerant manner, and that includes in this House.
He seems like a good egg. Michael Laws is notable as the NZ First candidate, and he is a loose cannon. Other independents offer nothing better, so vote for Anderson.
Miles Anderson, National. Medium priority
Wellington Bays
Lucky me being in the most leftwing non-Maori seat in the country. Julie-Anne Genter took it from Labour in 2023, as Fleur Fitzsimons was that unappealing. Now it’s time to see if the natural order can be restored. Although Genter isn’t the most ignorant and rabid Green MP, as in Auckland Central, having an electorate seat increases funding and outreach for her narrow views, and she like the rest, have all joined in on platforming extremist pro-Palestinian views and cosplay. She was also responsible for the kneecapping of a 2nd Mt Victoria Tunnel in the first term of the Ardern government, and the morphing of Let’s Get Wellington Moving into an expensive waste of time and money, to push a single tram line instead. More recently she was noted for angrily approaching Matt Doocey, because she thinks she is evidence based in her analysis. Defeating her will help slow down her Parliamentary career, although she will be elected as a list MP. Craig Renney is Labour’s candidate, and as much as I’d never endorse a CTU economist (and he is low on the list), he’s better than Genter. National’s Karuna Muthu doesn’t deserve your support this time. He was the candidate in 2023 and his main achievement in 2026 has been to leave a candidate’s meeting because he didn’t like too many “leftwing questions”. Harden up buttercup, try being a libertarian standing anywhere? National should have picked someone new to go through the baptism of fire of standing in a seat where there is little chance. If you can’t cope with Renney, you could vote for Nicole McKee of ACT, but she wouldn’t want you to do that either. Oddities include Bruce Welsh, formerly of the New Conservatives, now standing as an independent. Liam Anderson of the Money Free Party, and Don McDonald, who is known for having utterly cryptic policy statements. If you don’t know him, this is his blog https://rgdsm.wordpress.com/
Craig Renney, Labour. Low priority.
Wellington North
Tamatha Paul won the then Wellington Central electorate in a paroxysm of insanity in 2023, and she deserves to be defeated. She’s not very bright, she doesn’t play well with people who disagree with her and she buys into the bien pensant list of far-left views, and probably thinks people who oppose her are racist and sexist. I know two of the other candidates, but I don’t think you should vote for them unless you think you might vote for Paul instead, in which case feel free. Ayesha Verrall has the best chance of ousting Paul, and yes I can think of a long list of reasons why she isn’t a good choice and if it were most other seats, I’d be voting against her. However, there isn’t a better choice. Jonathan Pitts is standing for National, and although the new electorate boundaries are much better for National (as it has shed leftie Brooklyn in favour of more middling Ngaio and Khandallah), he’s not going to win or come second, bless him for trying though. As for the rest, you could always vote Michael Appleby for the ALCP, who has stood for almost every election since 1996, and his stance is pro-freedom, so if you can’t cope with Verrall, he deserves your vote for his indefatigability. Jessica Hammond is standing for the fourth time for Opportunity, and bless her for trying, but it’s getting dangerous now and it’s important to stop the lanyard party’s momentum. A shout out to Josh Harford standing for quasi-Muldoonist socialism, although I’m still unsure that the former candidate for the Silly Hat Party for Mayor isn’t engaging in a grand act of comedy by stringing along a bunch of insane old tankies from the Maritime Union. Hard lefties should give him support for being many times smarter than Tamatha Paul. Yes, I know Tamatha Paul will get in on the list, but not having an electorate reduces funding and outreach for her toxic opinions. Yes, I know Ayeesha Verrell is high on the Labour list, but she isn’t guaranteed to get in on current polling either.
Ayeesha Verrell, Labour. High priority.
West Coast-Tasman
What was once a Labour heartland seat is not anymore. The mercurial Maureen Pugh is retiring as the National MP, so this seat is very much up for grabs, given she did great work defeating the odious Damien O’Connor in 2023. Now National is punting Katie Milne, former Federated Farmers President, as its candidate. Dairy farmer and volunteer firefighter, she seems competent and there is nothing to say she wouldn’t be. Rory Paterson is standing for Labour, although he doesn’t appear to live in the electorate and he is, of course, a teacher. As usual, it’s hard to tell if he would do less harm in Parliament than being a leftie teacher, but I think Milne is a safer bet in a seat that could swing to Labour. There are eleven candidates here, which indicates a high level of craziness. Money Free, the Alliance, Sue Grey (yes that one) from Outdoors and Freedom, NZ Loyal and “Progressive Aotearoa New Zealand” all have candidates, so the funny money conspiracists have lots of choices, including of course Opportunity and the Greens.
Katie Milne, National. Medium priority.
Whanganui
Whanganui is held by National’s Carl Bates (who?), and while it is probably safe for him, it does swing to Labour from time to time. He’s been given some grief for property investment, and has a business background. He seems benign enough. Former Labour list MP Angela Roberts is standing. She was a President of the PPTA, one of the most pernicious protectors of poorly performing teachers in the country, so that is a sound reason to stop her getting elected. Out of curiosity is Juan Coffey, a founder of a party called Balance NZ, which is not registered. A lot of effort has been put into its policies, which are actually fairly centrist. No, don’t vote for him, but it’s actually more thorough than say, Opportunity. Harete Hipango-Brownlie, former National MP in Whanganui from 2017-2020 (and then list MP till 2023), is standing for NZ First. Conservatives might vote for her, given her stances on abortion and euthanasia, but she has no chance and reports of how well she works with others are mixed. I’d hold my nose and stick with stopping Angela Robert by voting for Bates.
Carl Bates, National. Medium priority.
Whangaparāoa
This seat is very safe for Mark Mitchell, hence why there are so few candidates. He has had quite the career with plenty of bravery and heroism, and is sometimes seen as a future leader, but that would be a mistake. I don’t think former cops should lead countries, as their instincts are not likely to be towards protecting freedom and limiting the power of the state. He has most of the views you would think a former cop would have, so I’d be thinking about who else you could vote for with good conscience. It wont be environmental educator Estefania Muller-Pallarès from Labour, as much as I like the idea of her not doing her job. Brenton Faithfull, funeral director standing for NZ Loyal seems a nice guy, but it’s NZ Loyal which is crazy and obsessive. I’d be ticking entrepreneur Helena Roza for ACT, just to send Mitchell a message that his seat shouldn’t be taken for granted.
Helena Roza, ACT. Low priority.
Whangārei
Whangarei is usually a National seat, but this time Shane Reti is retiring, so Lloyd Budd is National’s candidate. On the downside he’s a real estate agent and is bigging up having completed the “a leadership course through Harvard University Executive Education”. His profile is typical National candidate, but there isn’t that much depth there. The awful Dr Gary Payinda is standing for Labour, who has purged his lengthy social media profile of pejorative attacks and agitprop to look like he’s worthy of actually being in power. This statement from him says it all about the standards he has in facts vs. rhetoric “This government has given billions of our tax dollars to oil companies, tobacco companies and property speculators but have made life harder for our teachers, nurses and firefighters”. It’s a tough call, activist GP or real estate agent. On balance it is better for Whangarei to have one fewer real estate agent than one fewer GP, so hold your nose and help reduce housing prices by voting in Lloyd Budd. Payinda can go back to patching up bodies and sounding off ignorantly about public policy on social media. The worst candidate is not clear, as there are a few independent who don’t say much, but I’m going to pick Luke Beharrell of the Money Free NZ Party. The name of the party says it all really.
Lloyd Budd, National. High priority.
Wigram
Megan Woods is the outgoing incumbent here although she remains a list candidate oddly, she is now Labour, but once was with Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party. Although it is probably safe for Labour’s Dominik Yanzick (who rarely for Labour, works in the private sector), National won the party vote here handsomely in 2023 with around 45% to Labour on 31%, so it is far from assured. On the one hand, Yanzick’s experience and background is probably an asset to the Labour Party, but on the other hand National’s Tracy Summerfield is an entrepreneur which is fairly solid (although I mark down most people with an MBA) and a teacher which also makes her rare to not be a rabid lefty. ACT MP Laura McClure is standing, but she’ll likely be elected on the list anyway. By far the worst candidate is William Alexander for the Hamas Free Palestine Party, a former thespian who the Socialist Spinoff gave attention for wimping out on finishing his hunger strike for an Islamist theocracy.
Tracy Summerfield, National. Medium priority
Te Tai Hauāuru
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, who classifies the entire population of the country into Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti and “everyone else” (who don’t matter as they are dying out), and thinks Jews aren’t indigenous to Israel deserves to be sent into electoral oblivion. Labour’s Te Puoho Katene has the best chance of doing so, but Ngarewa-Packer has such a lead, you could pick National’s Coral Raukawa to give her credit for bothering to stand in the first place.
Te Puoho Katene, Labour. Medium priority.
Te Tai Tokerau
This seat is a mess, because the current MP is ex. TPM Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. She is standing again under her own party banner, which would create an overhang as she is unlikely to get enough party votes to justify the seat. So it’s a four- way race, as TPM has a candidate, the Greens are trying with Huhana Lyndon, and Labour is putting the mediocre Willow-Jean Prime as the candidate. To avoid the overhang either Lyndon or Prime would make sense, but if you are watching the polls, pick the one most likely to defeat Kapa-Kingi that doesn’t include TPM
Willow-Jean Prime, Labour. Low priority.
Te Tai Tonga
Takuta Ferris, who doesn’t like Asian people campaigning for Labour candidates in Maori seats, is an independent having been ex. TPM. He also would be an overhang if he won. TPM is proposing Lisa Marie Murch who should be rejected for her radicalism. Lisa Te Morenga of the Greens is a better candidate as she is smarter than most of them, but Mananui Ramsden for Labour is the obvious choice here.
Mananui Ramsden, Labour. High priority.
Tāmaki Makaurau
This is now a bit of a mess. Oriini Kaipara is the TPM MP, but Labour’s candidate Kerrin Leoni is no longer the Labour candidate, but she remains on the list. It is better to vote for Kerrin Leoni, as she will take an overhang seat from TPM, and will still be counted from the Labour list, as her withdrawal as a Labour candidate happened after the deadline for submitting candidates.
Kerrin Leoni, “Labour”, High priority.
Waiariki
Rawiri Waititi, who thinks Maori are genetically superior to others and that almost every government policy is racist and fascist, is a buffoon who deserves to be voted out. He is also backing the anti-democratic attempt to create a TPM overhang. Waititi’s most likely to lose against Labour’s Toni Boynton, so you should vote for her.
Toni Boynton, Labour. High priority.
