and later

I'll provide some more detailed analysis.

But congrats to the winners, and especially those Libz candidates who fought hard to spread the word of freedom. Your voices were heard.

Now to celebrate and sign off

Farewell kiwis, enjoy the celebrations. You should all at least be celebrating the demise of Winston Peters. I'm off to enjoy Saturday :)

What will the ACT bottomline be?

Here's a shortlist to start with:
- Drop the 39% tax rate
- Education vouchers
- Turn RMA on its head
- End ETS

Final count on the night

National 45.5% 41 electorate seats 18 list seats - 59
Labour 33.8% 21 electorate seats 22 list seats - 43
Greens 6.4% 8 list seats
ACT 3.7% 1 electorate and 4 list seats - 5
Maori 2.2% 5 electorate seats
Progressive 0.9% 1 electorate seats
United Future 0.9% 1 electorate seat

Outside Parliament
NZ First 4.2%
Kiwi Party 0.56% (clearly the Christian part of United Future was disenchanted)
Bill and Ben Party 0.51% (yep, people who don't give a fuck)
ALCP 0.36% (ALCP picked up votes from the Greens, but will go to sleep - again)
Pacific Party 0.33% (Philip Field couldn't get much support beyond South Auckland)
Family Party 0.33% (Destiny brand gone, the Christian vote clearly split three ways)
Alliance 0.08% (held their own despite the leftwing competition)
Democrats 0.05% (held their own as well)
Libertarianz 0.05% (up 13%)
Workers Party 0.04% (Communist rump)
RAM and Republic of New Zealand Party - can't even get votes from all their members!

John Key the victor - PM elect

Obama? "They voted for change". New National led government. Thanks supporters. Voted for safer, more prosperous and more ambitious New Zealand. Inspired as a kid who rode bike from his state house past those of wealthier kids (pretty good stuff). NZ has so much more potential. Collective success rests on the success of individuals. His government values individual achievement. Thanks Clark, she gave him gracious comments on her concession. Spoke to Rodney Hide, Peter Dunne (didn't mention Maori Party), they are willing to lend support to a new government. Spoke to Tariana Turia, willingness to engage in dialogue with Maori Party next week.

So it DOES look like National/ACT/United Future, but he wont be wanting to upset the Maori Party.

(Helensville - a majority of 18,562, 15,000 ahead on party vote)

Will National do what Labour did?

Labour has always been thought to go with the Greens, and in 2005, the Maori Party.

It went with United Future in 2002, and NZ First and United Future in 2005.

National DOES have a choice this time:
- ACT
- Maori Party

Peter Dunne is an add on, he's unnecessary.

National might go with the Maori Party to broaden its base, after all it is, inherently, a conservative party. ACTivists and Rodney Hide might pause till they hear and see what John Key does.

ACT's MPs

Rodney Hide (Epsom is his through and through)
Heather Roy
Sir Roger Douglas
John Boscawen - Freedom of Speech Trust founder
David Garrett - Mr Sensible Sentencing Trust

ACT should be able to demand two Ministers from that, but will National want it?

Clark keeps the headline

As RNZ says, this is Clark grabbing the headlines tomorrow.

It wasn't a McCain concession, it was a campaigning concession.

One third new MPs and that caucus has to find a new leader. Goff, Cullen or silent T?

Clark concedes - stands down as Leader!

Congratulates John Key and National.
A night for winners to savour, but we wont be going away.
Accepts responsibility for the result.
We've achieved incredible things for New Zealanders (ugh)
Incredible amount of pride in economic growth, high employment (thanks of course to the reforms of the 80s and 90s), huge advances in public health and education (noticed those?), boosted the nation's identity and pride (yes nothing like nationalism).
Dozen new Labour MPs to join the team
Fear that all they've worked for goes up in a bonfire of flames of the rightwing (ah if only!)
Thanks Dr Cullen, family etc
Standing down as Labour leader

Clark's majority in Mt Albert slashed by 6,000 but still a respectable 8695. Party vote in Mt Albert is far closer, only 1800 ahead of National.

Electorates that have changed

Auckland Central - Kaye beats Tizard
Botany - Pansy Wong takes this new seat
Hamilton West - National's Macindoe beats Gallagher
Mangere - Labour's Sio beats Field
Maungakiekie - Lotu iiga of National beats Beaumont of Labour
New Plymouth - Young of National narrowly beats Duynhoven of Labour
Otaki - Guy of National beats Hughes of Labour
Rotorua - McClay of National beats Chadwick of Labour
Taupo - Upston of National beats Burton of Labour
Waitakere - Bennett of National beats Pillay of Labour
West Coast Tasman - Auchinvole of National beats O'Connor of Labour
Te Tai Tonga -Katene of Maori Party beats Okeroa of Labour

1015GMT: Where the hell is Clark?

Helen, it doesn't add up. Ring John Key, be the statesperson (?) you believe you are - you should have conceded half an hour ago.

Jenny Shipley was a gracious loser.

Mike Moore wasn't in 1993 and it assisted his downfall led by you. If you can't do this well, your caucus members should roll you.

Judith Tizard on RNZ

Gracefully conceding and saying she's the second Labour MP to lose Auckland Central isn't that right Richard? Good on you Judith, "elections come, elections go, you have to accept the will of the people". Wished Nikki all the best, no idea if she is in on the list, but Prebble thinks she might make it. "A changing of the guard and maybe there needs to be a change of the guard" - what could that mean Judith?

So good on you Judith, a gracious member of the Labour party.

NZ election results live: 1000 GMT

National 45.5%
Labour 33.8% a devastating hit for Labour
Greens 6.5% disappointing
NZF 4.2% more than people thought, but finally the end
ACT 3.7% good enough to demand a coalition and demand some decent steps forward
Maori 2.3% if specials overseas increase this the overhang may shrink one more

Libz on 1010

New Plymouth is now a National seat. Harry Duynhoven is gone, a massive majority overturned. Harry hasn't got a list position, so will be looking for a new job, after specials (314 majority).

Rimutaka remains Labour, Hipkins just beats Whiteside
Waimakariri close between Cosgrove and Wilkinson

3 years of Key and Hide

So it is a National/ACT government possibly with Peter Dunne.

John Key is sitting waiting for a phone call from Helen Clark. Richard Prebble on RNZ has said "Helen this is what you do, you pick up the phone, and say "congratulations".

Helen you lost in 1996, you've been there before - come on. It's over, a better man won.

Greens happy but not ecstatic

8 seats, but since overseas NZers have some fanciful idea about clean and Green NZ and vote heavily Green it could yet be 9.

That means:
Jeanette Fitzsimons
Russel Norman
Sue Bradford
Metiria Turei
Sue Kedgley
Keith Locke
Kevin Hague
Catherine Delahunty (ugh)
maybe Kennedy Graham

Jeanette speech: Thanks those loyal to our children and the planet. Oil prices are going to skyrocket again. How vile, take your filthy furry hands off other people's children. They aren't yours, and you're not in government. You've been saddling up with Labour over the last nine years.

Right vs left in Parliament

National plus ACT plus United Future 65
Labour plus Progressives plus Greens plus Maori 57

62 needed for majority

Judith Tizard on the cusp of remaining in Parliament

Labour needs 22 list seats, the 22nd one given current electorate wins would be Judith Tizard.

She aint finished yet. Go Harry in New Plymouth!

Best Libz counts: 0935GMT

Leading party vote: Wairarapa 59
Leading electorate: Wairarapa 419

NZ election results live: 0930GMT

So when is Helen Clark conceding? Winston has. Chris Carter on RNZ says the government hasn't been rejected and blames the toxic media! Says "if there is a Labour opposition". He isn't conceding - little prick! Labour is so pissed off, and frankly good.

Control freaks who can't accept that 2 out of 3 voters didn't tick Labour

PARTIES:
National 45.5% It's enough, but really not the vote they would have hoped for.
Labour 33.7% Labour's second worst result.
Greens 6.5% they wont be happy
NZF 4.2% phew and all those votes get redistributed
ACT 3.7% 5 seats got to be at least 1 if not 2 Cabinet members?

Libz 983

ELECTORATES THAT MATTER:
Nikki Kaye must take Auckland Central now. Bye bye Judith you lazy moaner, no longer will others in government have to put up with your mindless moody bullshit.

Rodney Hide has a huge majority in Epsom, fair to say it's his home seat. No longer a strategic vote location alone.

Maungakiekie - Labour remains behind here, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga may take it for National
New Plymouth - remains a cliffhanger
Ohariu - Dunne is safe here, Minister of ?
Rimutaka - remains a cliffhanger
Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove is NOT safe here, still very close
Waitakere - Another cliffhanger
Wellington Central - Looks like Grant Robertson is going to pip Stephen Franks
West Coast Tasman - Await specials, but National looks like kicking out O'Connor
Te Tai Tonga - Maori Party looking more comfy here, 2 seat overhang

John Key is about to make a speech apparently

NZ election results live: 0916 GMT

Lost RNZ connection and TVNZ wont take my connection either grrr. 90%
Nats: 45.6%
Labour: 33.6%
Greens: 6.5% picked up a little
ACT: 3.7%
NZF: 4.3%

Looks like a National/ACT government people.

Libz 927

Winston says your cause is not over NZ First voters LOL what him?

ELECTORATES:
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye is looking comfortably ahead now
Maungakiekie - Looking more like National
New Plymouth - 97% and still less than 200 in it, will go to specials
Ohariu - Dunne looks comfortably ahead here now
Otaki - Nathan Guy has taken this from Darren Hughes
Palmerston North - Labour has hung on
Rimutaka - still neck and neck Labour/National
Waitakere - Paula Bennett threatening Labour here