Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Gordon Brown might start worrying

The latest Guardian opinion poll (steady on, I didn't BUY it, it's online) in the UK puts the Tories 9% ahead of Labour on 40%, with Labour on 31%, the lowest since the 1987 election (which the Tory’s won). The Socialist Demagogues (Liberal Democrats) are up 5% to 22%. Full details here. It appears that the public is sick of Labour, and is going two ways – either supporting the new age everything to everyone Tory Party of David Cameron or the anti-war on terror, born again old Labour LibDems (which are always the refuge of traditional Labour or Tory voters whose stomachs churn at voting for the “other side”).
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With current electoral boundaries, this would give the Tories a small majority, depending on whether the LibDems gain Labour seats or take away Labour votes in electorates where the Tories are second. Labour’s losses appear to be in the middle classes and the wealth creating south, while it is steadfast in the working class north. The Tories are now ahead for both women and men.
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The likelihood is that if polls continue to track like this, Blair will be gone in months – as Brown will want to try and bolster Labour support. He’ll have a hard task – Cameron has moved the Tories to the centre, he is younger, more vigorous and he isn’t Scottish. People in England are less likely to want to elect a Scotsman as PM, when the people who vote him in wont be affected by many of his policies.
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The times are changing in the UK – on a not too dissimilar parallel to NZ.

1 comment:

Gekko said...

Gosh - at this rate I might even repatriate.

Hmmm on second thoughts:
a) the social and economic carnage left over after nearly a decade of Labour that will need cleaning up
b) Cameron is just a slightly less cool Blair, and now the Tories have turned socialist and embrace high tax redistribution I can't see (a) getting fixed any time soon.

Nope, I'll stay down here for now. Dear Leader is only slightly less scary than Brown. But it is less...