Qantas and Air NZ to codeshare trans-tasman

As an opponent of anti-trust laws, I don't have a problem with privately owned airlines in an open market getting together. Although Air NZ and Qantas would not have done that had Dr Cullen let Air NZ be 49% owned by Singapore Airlines in the first place, that is now history. Unfortunately Air NZ is now predominantly state owned - and so it is at best, unclear, whether this collusion between Qantas (which so clearly has the political backing of the Australian Federal Government, as it shut out competition for Qantas on one of its most profitable routes) and the state carrier should be allowed.

However, I can laugh at one point - the claim by the airlines that this is good for consumers. Check these claims:

* Air New Zealand customers currently have the choice of 134 Tasman departures per week. Under the proposed codeshare with Qantas this would increase by 63% to 218 departures.

Well, actually customers can choose between all of the airlines. Nobody is forced to use one airline - at best the claim that you can earn frequent flyer points/airpoints dollars on more flights is true.

* Better schedule spread (access to 63 % more flights a week across the Tasman).

OK, there are less flights - are the remainder going to happen at hours that people don't want that much??

* Greater range of connecting options and enhanced seamlessness of service.

You both have deals with each other for connecting to each others' domestic networks already.

* Potential for new destinations and improved frequencies.

So the new route to Adelaide happened because?? You're reducing frequencies - so what is that about?

* Cost savings from extraction of capacity (removal of two aircraft from the Air New Zealand fleet and one from Qantas) will allow sustainability of low fares.

Yes, though there will be less low fares- you use those to try to fill all those half empty planes.

Oh well, as a libertarian I don't advocate the government stop it - but it isn't much good for consumers, particularly those flying from Wellington since only Air NZ and Qantas fly from Wellington to Australia. Meanwhile, remember that this wouldn't have happened had it NOT been for government interference in the first place- why should Dr Cullen have held up Singapore Airlines' investment in Air NZ in 2001?

In New Zealand

OK, I'm here. Can't comment on Air NZ's new Premium Economy Class because I used up my gold airpoints upgrade vouchers to go in the new business class mmmmm - duvets and pillows and flat beds. Rather nice entertainment system fully interactive - not the variety as in Singapore Airlines or Virgin Atlantic, but better than Qantas. Food was excellent and in greater quantities than last time, and I could sleep in the bed, although it was a little hard it compares well with BA's Club Class.

Ahh New Zealand, land of the parochial soooo:

Things I have missed

Family and friends
Empty clean beaches, countryside, roads
Cheap good fresh fruit and veges
Good edible bread easy to get
More fish than haddock and cod that is easy to get
Sun and blue skies
Relatively good service
Lack of crowds

Things i have not missed

Nauseatingly patriotic navel gazing provincialism, as if New Zealand as an entity is important - it just exists and people there have to do things good to be noticed. Just because it is NZ made means nothing unless it is good.
Nasal drawling accents (LA Air NZ lounge I sat beside a blonde woman with the worst accent I've heard in ages - loud, nasal and SO glad she didn't sit upstairs).
Boy racers.
High taxes on alcohol.
Anally retentive customs (you really think most illegal drugs used in NZ come through passengers at airports?)
Low value currency getting lower (good for me for now).
The preponderance of the stupid prickery using the roads (whereas in London they are homeless or riding buses).
Newspapers with large sections dedicated to parish pump pointlessness and bugger all analysis or incisive comment, and virtually no choice of newspapers.
Television virtually devoid of intelligence, unless it comes from foreign channels and awash with cultural cringe.
Radio largely devoid of intelligence (BBC World Service and BBC Radio 4, as leftwing as they are, are like undergraduate tutors compared to National Radio's adolescent students).
The subculture of welfare, drug addiction, crime, abuse and irresponsibility rampant in certain segments of society - and the political tolerance of it (yes I am very aware of it in the UK too, but it is a different but equally troublesome nature).
The perverse criminal justice system that puts a drug trafficker in jail for years, but lets women who beat up kids out in half the time.
The obsession with the road toll - but unwillingess to confront the cause - stupid driving.

OK that'll do, I don't enjoy sitting in front of a computer more than I have to :)

Transmission Gully needs more subsidies

That's right folks - not only was the Hearing's Committee (reported as if it was Godlike) wrong about there being enough money for this billion dollar boondoggle, not only does it have a benefit/cost ratio of less than 1.0 (meaning it produces less benefits that costs), not only does a toll only recover around 15% of the cost of the road (which means if the toll was high enough to pay for it, nobody would use it - showing how little users really want it), not only does Porirua City Council and Kapiti Coast District Council oppose rating the main beneficiaries of the road to pay for it, BUT

apparently (I say apparently because I don't trust the Dom Post much on these, since they got it wrong several times before as I described here and here) Dr Cullen has suggested a regional petrol tax to help pay for it.

This is a fundamentally flawed proposal, despite David Farrar's socialist faith in this think big project, for several reasons:

1. A regional petrol tax means ALL motorists from Masterton and Otaki to Miramar and Island Bay pay for a road that only SOME use. Wairarapa residents might ask why people in Levin don't have to pay, whereas more of them will use it than Wairarapa people.

2. A regional petrol tax means motorists that fill up north of Otaki or in the South Island don't pay to use the road as much as a grandmother driving in Island Bay to the shops.

3. A regional petrol tax means all trucks, buses and diesel and LPG cars don't contribute, since it doesn't apply to road user charges or LPG (and don't even try to apply it to them - RUC is often bought centrally by fleet operators and there is no way of knowing where kilometres bought in advance are being used, and 80% of LPG tax is refunded for non-road users - try having a regional tax on a tax that is mostly refunded)

4. There is no regional petrol tax at present, the last one, introduced by the 1990-1996 National Government was abolished because the oil companies found it administratively simpler to apply to ALL petrol sales nationwide, and hand the Auckland and Wellington Regional Councils the estimated revenue (so motorists in Invercargill paid a tax that was largely meant to apply to only Auckland and Wellington). The only way to change that would be a complicated administration system to account for petrol delivered within regional boundaries, and that means service stations close to boundaries either win or lose.

Now, the DomPost failed to report that the Wellington Regional Land Transport Committee has voted in favour of Transmission Gully - but, and it is a big but - there are still several hurdles left.

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Transit's board has to agree to the appropriate approach, and may decide against Transmission Gully, or decide in favour, or decide in favour, but in the meantime cannot neglect the current route (which it can't). I think it will do the latter - retain its commitment to Transmission Gully as the long term solution, but apply for fundable economic projects on the current route. The median barrier along the coast is one, an interchange at Paekakariki is another - Pukerua Bay Bypass perhaps another. Even then, Land Transport New Zealand needs to approve funding - Transit doesn't do this - something that politicians that helped set up this system (Peter Dunne and Maurice Williamson) tend to ignore in the rhetoric and which most journalists can't be arsed thinking about (they only report anyway).

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The simple point is - the money for Transmission Gully is not there - it does not stack up as a project of anything other than low national priority because it has bad economics, and the users are unwilling to pay, even the councils cheerleading it wont raise a dollar of their ratepayers' money to pay for it (meaning they wont risk their political lives on the issue - there is no risk in demanding others pay).

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So why should you be forced to pay for a road that you aren't going to use or benefit from? and if you are going to use it or benefit from it, then why wont you agree to pay more towards it? Agree to pay the $24 toll that would be required, or go tell the grandmother driving in Island Bay to the shops why she should pay more in petrol so you can go on holiday to Taupo 10 minutes faster?

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You might ask why supposed supporters of the free market like ACT and National, think this is ok. Even Maurice Williamson, who as Minister proudly refused to get involved in decisions on particular projects, because he believed projects should be decided on their merits by people able to weigh them all up objectively is now reported as guaranteeing the Penlink project in Rodney District will get funding approval if National is elected. Roll out the pork barrels.

Light blog

I’m off to New Zealand and Australia for the rest of the month, so will write here eratically during that time. The weekend in Switzerland was wonderful, Switzerland has the plus of being clean, polite, comfortable and efficient, and the minus of often being closed and rulebound.

I miss certain food, space, good tap water, family and friends - but I don't miss the tall poppy syndrome, the Kiwi navel gazing "thinking we're really important" and the insipid political correctness. Oh well, I wish you well and look forward to seeing a few of you in the next few weeks.

Tolling Transmission Gully

Well it had to happen - Transmission Gully could not be built as an untolled road, not because of cost, because it wont generate much revenue at all - but because if untolled it would be a subsidy for people commuting from Kapiti Coast and result in substantial amounts of housing development in Kapiti and Horowhenua because taxpayers - not road users and certainly not users of that road - would be paying for it. Tolling will mean two things - the users will be paying around 20% of the cost of the road (including fuel tax and road user charges), but at off peak times most people will use the existing road. Why pay if it wont save you time? BOTH routes should be tolled to pay for it - particularly since the main beneficiaries are those whingers who bought houses along the existing highway wanting a windfall increase in property values by taxpayers paying for a new road that wasn't even seriously considered until the 1990s.

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The Dominion Post continues to fail to report accurately claiming that the Hearings Panel report on public consultation was generated by Transit and the Regional Council, which is nonsense.

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The new regional plan proposes that Transmission Gully could be built for $955 million, in a decade. Of this, $412 million would come from already guaranteed funding, $428 million from special Government loans, and $115 million from loans to be covered by tolls. $955 million is a joke - seriously - this project will face overruns of around 10-20% if other state highway projects are anything to go by. Transmission Gully will cost around $1.1-$1.2 billion. The already guaranteed funding doesn't exist - that funding is actually $405 million and there is no such thing as a special Government loan - yet. A case could be put for it, but I wouldn't be lending money for a roading project which had lower benefits than cost - may as well build a gas to gasoline plant at Motunui.

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So we will see. If Transmission Gully is to go ahead, it should FOLLOW the rail improvements already agreed, and a number of minor improvements to the current route (median barrier, interchange at Paekakariki and possibly bypass at Pukerua Bay) should proceed.

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I still think there is every likelihood Transmission Gully wont proceed - because it is so hienously expensive. The next most expensive project in Wellington is $180 million and for the money spent on Transmission Gully, Wellington city could have a proper inner city bypass (4-lane cut and cover tunnel from Terrace Tunnel to Mt Victoria Tunnel, with both tunnels duplicated and 4-lanes to the airport) and a lot more besides. Such a project would transform the region by dramatically improving access to and from the airport and hospital, remove a third of the traffic from inner city streets - enable the waterfront route along the quays to have a lane removed in each direction, buses would flow far more freely through town.

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Transmission Gully will just knock 5 minutes off the off-peak time from Wellington to Kapiti and perhaps 20 minutes off the peak journey, and remove 60% of the traffic from Pukerua Bay and Mana - both communities very used to through traffic. Transmission Gully wont fix Wellington city congestion.

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Maybe a better approach is congestion pricing to pay for a proper city bypass and Transmission Gully? I simply think the region hasn't thought through its priorities sufficiently and too many are worshipping the cult of Transmission Gully - if they ever get it, they will be very disappointed.