Farewell Winston but...

Whilst the Serious Fraud Office investigation into NZ First finances should certainly see Winston removed from his Ministerial positions (if not then Helen Clark will have made a serious misjudgment), the question becomes whether NZ First will withdraw confidence and supply. If so, it might provoke the announcement of the election date, but it would also be likely that NZ First MPs would be looking for a new job. If not, then Labour has to ask itself whether it is comfortable governing reliant on a party that has proven itself to be at best slippery with the truth around its finances.

NZ First has never been popular with the mass media of course, partly because it has always couched itself as the party of the people who don't have a voice. NZ First is the party of talkback land, of the Waynes and Sharlenes who don't like the Chans who moved in next door with their nice car and children who are far more articulate than they are, who are suspicious of big business and think that "old" New Zealand was "taken away". The barely shrouded racism expressed (but probably not believed) by Winston Peters meant NZ First did worst in the likes of Wellington - NZ First is in effect the National Party of Rob Muldoon. It may be facing its swan song. Rarely does the media give the impression that NZ First is a party like others, but then again rarely does Winston Peters want this.

So let's move on. Does the degree of scrutiny that the media place upon NZ First ever get applied to the Green Party or the Maori Party? Who delves in the control-freakery of both? The anti-American hypocrisy of both parties, the strong emphasis on increasing the size of the welfare state, the unabashed racist agenda not to oppress a race, but to advantage one, their xenophobia about foreign investment.

Labour undoubtedly would do deals with both parties to stay in power, but where is the media scrutiny? National would almost certainly do a deal with the Maori Party, and wouldn't dismiss the Greens if it needed Green support to govern.

I acknowledge that NZ First's behaviour in recent months has raised serious issues, but fundamentally it is MORE important to consider what policies and who will be seeking to govern NZ in the next three years. The mainstream media loves a scandal, and is appropriately sinking its teeth into Winston Peters - but the same teeth could be sunk into all of the parties in Parliament - and with vigorous serious journalism, it would happen. Will it?

Why would the Democrats excite anyone?

I've long been perplexed as to what drives those who get excited and engaged with the two major US political parties. The Demopublicans and the Republicrats are different only in the areas they don't overlap. However both are predominantly concerned with power, power over businesses, individuals, to spend other people's money and take that money, to give other people's money to businesses they prefer, taking more from those they don't. It's an absolute abomination against reason, and is little short of braindead.

Barack Obama is a lightweight style focused rather leftwing vaccilating Presidential candidate who is riding substantially on his race and youth to differentiate himself, and present himself as an agent of "change". Yet his "change" is little more than more taxes, more spending couched in words of "support" and an ever changing approach to foreign policy. He has proven he is no friend of free trade, having voted to substantially increase agricultural subsidies, including subsidies to produce nothing at a time of high food prices. He has had substantial links with rather nasty men.

However the difference between Obama and John McCain is not huge. Hillary Clinton's bizarre statement that "Nothing less than the fate of our nation and the future of our children hang in the balance," is enormous hyperbole. I prefer McCain for reasons outlined before and I don't doubt McCain is better for New Zealand and indeed the world.

Yet stand back from it all and ask what is it really about? A man who talks of change, but with little substance riding on the back of image and his historic nomination from a racial point of view. A party painting the USA as being in despair, ignoring that it controls Congress and controlled both Houses far more often in post war history than the Republicans. It is truly the triumph of hyperbolic disinformation distributed with vapid alacrity.

Oh and don't believe I'll think the Republicans will be much better. However look for the hook, look for what the Democrats think they'll seriously change, and ask yourself why anyone would want to spend any time campaigning for this pablum - unless, of course, you expected to get some substantial benefit from more statism, which isn't what the USA was meant to be about.

A dream to follow

Today is a day to remember one of the great men of history and his dream, a dream that is a great one of liberty, a message of hope and aspiration that, unalloyed by the statist motivations of many who quote it - should be the universal declaration of hope of individualism. I need not say anymore than this, and urge that THIS be remembered today, despite the ambition of a gang of control freaks, liars and corrupt mediocrities currently having a conference in Denver to take control of the United States and further erode what this dream really means.

You can read the speech to remember in full here, but for me the highlights are below. I am aware of the politics of many surrounding Martin Luther King, Jr, but neither they nor his religious beliefs take away for a moment about what this speech does. I defy those who passionately love freedom and despise the mindlessness of collectivism to not be moved.

"I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal."

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of interposition and nullification - one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers."

The day before he was assassinated he talked of being at the mountaintop:

"All we say to America is, "Be true to what you said on paper." If I lived in China or even Russia, or any totalitarian country, maybe I could understand some of these illegal injunctions. Maybe I could understand the denial of certain basic First Amendment privileges, because they hadn't committed themselves to that over there. But somewhere I read of the freedom of assembly. Somewhere I read of the freedom of speech. Somewhere I read of the freedom of press. Somewhere I read that the greatness of America is the right to protest for right. And so just as I say, we aren't going to let dogs or water hoses turn us around, we aren't going to let any injunction turn us around. We are going on.

Never stop and forget that collectively -- that means all of us together -- collectively we are richer than all the nations in the world, with the exception of nine. Did you ever think about that? After you leave the United States, Soviet Russia, Great Britain, West Germany, France, and I could name the others, the American Negro collectively is richer than most nations of the world. We have an annual income of more than thirty billion dollars a year, which is more than all of the exports of the United States, and more than the national budget of Canada. Did you know that? That's power right there, if we know how to pool it."

May we all for a moment consider his ambition for a world free of racist bigotry - consider also his call for the use of voluntary protest and economic choice by those supporting him to influence change in behaviour. Martin Luther King, Jr. was not perfect, but he was a truly great man who changed the course of history and advanced freedom - oh to have a politician today who is 1% of what he was.

John Key shows principle

Yes!! Remarkable really. Good for him though. It looks like a coalition or confidence and supply agreement between National and NZ First is ruled out. The NZ Herald quotes him saying;

"I am ruling out Mr Peters. He simply doesn't have the integrity in my view unless he can somehow change that".

It is more than what Jim Bolger said or did, but then the same Jim Bolger who voted to privatise NZ Rail Ltd is now on the board of the renationalised railway. The same Jim Bolger who sits on the board of Kiwibank. However I digress.

I do wonder though, that if National did need NZ First, whether it would surrender power to a Labour mongrel coalition. However, it is worth noting a rare appearance of backbone.

NZ First has always been a party of blatant brainless populist opportunism, it seeks to tap the mindlessness of talkback radio, the very worst of much of New Zealand culture. The envy dripping suspicion of foreigners, the envy dripping suspicion of successful businesses, the belief that state owned enterprises are good when they are state owned, regardless of how poorly they perform and the resentment and anger of their privatised equivalents. The kneejerk belief that the "guvmint should do something".

However it has not done this in a vacuum. It has tapped a series of trends that have a grain of truth in the concern that NZ First voters carry.

NZ First would not have succeeded had National not lied to the electorate in 1990. Some of National's supporters today try to reassure the likes of me, and other libertarians that "wait till the Nats get in office then they can do some of the things you like", even though the Nats are saying little different from Labour. It is THAT kind of politics that NZ First rejected. One thing you can't say about Winston Peters is that he isn't clear about his policies. Jim Bolger promised to remove the hated superannuation surtax, but continued it after 1990. That single move decimated National's support among senior citizens. National created Winston Peters, he was one of them and it delivered an enormous deception to voters - greater than anyone could claim Labour generated in 1984 and certainly in 1987.

NZ First was also an early carrier of disenchantment at the Treaty claims process. A resentment from some taxpayers that some Maori were benefiting enormously from their taxes, and that the benefits were enriching a small number very well, was a genuine concern Winston tapped. However, he then went on to focus on the Maori seats and taking them all in 1996. Having moved across the spectrum on this issue, NZ First retains a not insubstantial level of support among Maori voters.

NZ First's big issue has been immigration, but sadly although there are serious issues about whether new migrants should be able to claim anything from the welfare state including health and education, Winston focused on race and bigotry. He played the race card, and stirred up a vile level of anti-Asian sentiment that appeared focused on successful East Asian migrants - you know the ones not filling the jails, welfare lines and talkback call lines. It was possibly the most poisonous recent part of modern politics, one that didn't stop National signing up to govern with NZ First, and didn't stop Labour.

NZ First also tapped the ongoing popular outrage at crime and the poor performance of the criminal justice system in addressing this, although it was little more than a repositary for rage. It still showed that Labour and National had not got to grips with a core concern of the general public.

However it is telling that while the superannuation surtax issue provided a huge catalyst to Winston's political career, his supporters did not reward him for removing it. Policies don't matter to voters as much as impressions and feelings, and NZ First was decimated at the 1999 election for its appalling performance as a team - even though it delivered on several promised policies, including abolishing the super surtax.

NZ First attracts protest votes, votes from people who don't like the status quo. It is hurting because Winston keeps Helen Clark and Michael Cullen in power - he can't evade or dodge that, as he is desperately trying to evade the allegations around donations. His politics were built on National lying, and tapping populist resentment that National has since partly tapped (although has also since backtracked on). Winston has built a career on being upfront and honest, and not having a secret agenda - his political career may be finished if National keeps its word and offers a government of bland "me too" policies that the public appears to be endorsing.

The problem is National looks like it has a secret agenda - given that it has virtually no policy differences from Labour, it is the only hook others have to attack National. It is the hook Winston has, and if it proves to be true even though I may agree with some of the policies it is still deceit and contemptible. Winston's political career will be reinvigorated if National has a secret agenda.

However, if National does not seek to govern with Winston's support, and enters government doing what it has said, then Winston's poison will have expired. It is clear that Labour is happy to govern with his support, and it is that which should be the focus. Labour is no more principled than National, it's just more deft at hiding how it sells out.

Light blogging till Tuesday but

Since I've been working my arse off for the last couple of months I am fleeing for a break as it is Bank Holiday weekend in the UK - so you'll hear little to nothing from me until Tuesday 26 August.

Rural Ireland should be a good break from looking at this screen, meetings and answering phone calls.

Meanwhile may I recommend to some of you who are regular to use a blog reading aggregator. Bloglines is the one I use, it tells me if any of the 20 or so blogs I regularly read have anything new and allows me to skim the articles and figure if I want to read more or not.

While I'm at it, let me note two of the books I have recently read:

"No One Left to Lie To" by Christopher Hitchens. The Clinton family and how awfully evil they are. Now Hitchens was certainly more leftwing then than now, and some of his criticisms are for Clinton supporting welfare reform, but it is the personal behaviour that is most telling. The fact Hitchens effectively calls Bill Clinton a rapist and hasn't been sued for it speaks volumes, and it is also damning how the Clintons got away with their lies and behaviour by a complicit mainstream media uninterested in giving ammunition to the Republicans. The critics of G.W. Bush would do well to read this to see how Clinton's foreign policy was, in some cases, an absolute disaster and i one case particularly cynical and evil.

"The Missionary Position: Mother Teresa in Theory and Practice" by Christopher Hitchens. Mother Teresa, friend of dictators, no friend of the poor, running her home for the dying whilst celebrating in the suffering of the poor as it brought them and her "closer to Jesus". Read how this angel of death raised millions of dollars, yet her homes for the dying were spartan affairs without medical staff, which in one case refused to send a 15yo boy to hospital because "if we sent him, they'd all want to go". Determine for yourself whether this celebrity raised vast sums of money for the Vatican's aggrandisement and global crusade, and if not where did the money go?

Have a good weekend.