22 September 2008

Brian McNamara - you wont hear from him again


Labour's Kaikoura candidate is Brian McNamara. Again, another without a list place. There is little information about him, other than his Labour 08 profile which says "my voice would represent the wishes and needs of ordinary Marlburians and North Cantabrians for
  • full employment,
  • higher wages,
  • better services and quality of life for all, and
  • the sustainable and beneficial growth of our agricultural, horticultural, high tech mechanical and tourist industries."
Full employment? Higher wages? Ah he is another one who believes in the socialist easter bunny.

It doesn't matter anyway. National's Colin King (yes I know nothing about him yet either) is the incumbent MP, who won in 2005 with a respectable 51.7% of the vote and 4675 over Labour Beehive stalwart Brendon Burns (from whence the name "Burns Unit" came for the PM's Beehive communications group). It is solidly National on the party vote as well (45% vs Labour's 36%) so McNamara will fade into political obscurity, thank goodness.

PREDICTION: Colin King will retain this seat effortlessly.

George Hawkins - a meritless likely winner


George Hawkins is the Labour candidate for Manurewa, having been the MP since 1990, and winning a rather astonishing 59.7% of the vote in 2005. Yes Hawkins is in the club of MPs who truly can say a majority wanted him to represent them. His majority is 11667 ahead of a National candidate who got only 20.4% of the vote, it will be miraculous if the Nats can turn that around with Cam Calder. The party vote also is little different between that result. This is Labour heartland through and through.

However, George doesn't have a list place and he hasn't been a Cabinet Minister (by choice, after the disgraceful 111 incidents before the last election) since the last election. You have to wonder how much of a lame duck MP he can remain being?

The Labour 08 website says it all when you see its empty profile for him. Labour doesn't even think it NEEDS to fight in Manurewa, that sort of complacency is sad for the people of Manurewa, but it is up to them. If they want to elect a failed former Cabinet Minister to represent them, then they sow what they reap.

PREDICTION: Hawkins will sleepwalk to victory, and Manurewa will be served by George until he wants a quiet retirement

Russell Fairbrother - the next big thing for me is railways??


In my ongoing series on Labour candidates...

Russell Fairbrother - Napier (no list placing): Napier was a solid Labour seat under FPP since 1954 and under MMP since 1996, until Russell Fairbrother won it in 2002. He lost in 2005 to National's Chris Tremain, with a 3591 majority, a stunning defeat in what was once Labour heartland country. National also beat Labour in the party vote with 42.2% vs 40.9%. However, like many Labour MPs who lost their electorates, he was back in on the list at number 38, but now he's not on it at all. Russell will be looking for a new job in a few weeks time and it will be about time.

Russell's own profile on the Labour 08 website is abysmal. He claims credit for "bringing the Meeanee expressway overbridge to Napier", when it was simply a very good project that was already a national priority for Land Transport NZ when it approved funding, some time ago. He did nothing. Even his own website is dormant. The rest of his profile is banal platitudes about "I experience both the good and bad of this beautiful city", such as what? Waiting lists? Parents not affording education at the schools they want to send their kids to? Crime? Finally, his biggest priorities for Napier are NOT dealing with intergenerational welfarism, crime and drug abuse among the underclass, inadequate educational achievement, the increasing cost of living, no he says...

"The next big thing for me to achieve is better public transport throughout Hawkes Bay and a strong rail link between the central North Island, Napier, Wairoa and Gisborne."

Well Russell, the railway line has existed for over 60 years, and it doesn't seem too many in Hawke's Bay want to use it often enough, and you can do a lot about improving public transport in Hawkes Bay after the election - you will be free to be a bus driver.

PREDICTION: Russell will be looking for a new job, probably defending hardened criminals because no organisation or individuals failed them "social structures did" (as his maiden speech enlightened us in 2002).

Harry Duynhoven - a shoo in


Labour Party candidates that are only standing for their electorates can only mean two things:
- Very high likelihood of winning electorate (so not needing a list position); or
- Token electorate candidate that the Party doesn't really care about winning anyway.

This isn't nefarious, as the Nats do this too. So after Sam Yau and Paul Chalmers (both clearly in the latter category) who else is standing for Labour, but not on the list?

Harry Duynhoven - New Plymouth: Yes, Harry has held New Plymouth since 1987 and has a loyal following. He is trained as a teacher, electrician and has a Masters in Public Policy, he is known as a hard worker and quite dedicated to local affairs. He is Minister of Transport Safety and Associate Minister of Energy. One of his pet projects has been compulsory third party property insurance for motorists, despite much official resistance to the idea. His majority was a solid 5439 in 2005, one of the few MPs to win a majority of votes cast (53.2%) during an election when Labour lost many provincial seats to the Nats. As National won the party vote in New Plymouth (44.5% vs 37.6% for Labour) it shows he has a high personal following in the seat. National's Jonathan Young will have to work hard to unseat Harry. Harry is unlikely to be too worried, but if on the night it is looking tight it will definitely be spelling doom for Labour, certainly Harry's personal following didn't translate into anywhere near as many party votes for Labour.

PREDICTION: Harry holds on but National's party vote lead will see his majority tighten.

21 September 2008

Qantas to fly A380 to NZ for promotion


So why on earth has Stuff included a photo of an Emirates flight attendant inside an Emirates plane in its article, with the caption "Qantas by a nose: Qantas will be the first airline to fly the new Airbus A380 to New Zealand". (photo to the right).

Mainstream media, carefully edited and double checked - not.

The report says, of course, that Qantas plans no scheduled A380 service to New Zealand. The first routes will be from Australia to the USA, then to Hong Kong/Singapore and the UK. Emirates by contrast will fly an A380 service daily to Auckland.

Meanwhile, the easiest way for NZers to fly on the A380 is Singapore Airlines, from Singapore to London after flying from Auckland or Christchurch.