09 November 2008

Bye bye to the losers

So who is no longer there to vote on how the government spend your money and tell you what to do or not to do? Time to celebrate the disappearance of:

Labour
Judith Tizard
Martin Gallagher
Harry Duynhoven
Russell Fairbrother
Mark Burton
Damien O'Connor (though will be awaiting specials as he is next on the list)
Mahara Okeroa
Lesley Soper
Louisa Wall
Dave Hereora

Pacific Party
Taito Philip Field

NZ First
Peter Brown
Winston Peters
Dail Jones
Ron Mark
Pita Paraone
Barbara Stewart
Doug Woolerton

United Future
Judy Turner

Independent/Kiwi Party
Gordon Copeland

The MMP slippery slide back
Darren Hughes out of Otaki, but back in on the list
Steve Chadwick out of Rotorua, but back in on the list
Lynne Pillay out of Waitakere, but back in on the list

RETIRED

Tim Barnett
Mark Gosche
Paul Swain
David Benson-Pope (de-selected)
Steve Maharey
Marian Hobbs
Jill Pettis
Dover Samuels
Margaret Wilson

Mark Blumsky
Bob Clarkson
Katherine Rich
Clem Simich

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

So who is the one YOU are most happy to see the back of? Other than Winston of course :) For me, it is Fairbrother, a wet apologist for some of the vilest individuals in the country.

Dear Peter Dunne

Oh Peter, it's just you again. The worm didn't come to save you, the Kiwi Party broke away from you (ah yes remember Anthony Walton and Future NZ? Yes we wont talk about what he got up to!), and United Future has been punished for straddling the middle muddle ground of mediocrity, whoring between Labour and National, supporting either, both and neither. People wanting Labour wanted Labour, people wanting a change voted National and ACT. There was no good reason for people to support United Future, even though your tax policy was better than National's - who knew?

John Key doesn't need you, nobody else does either. Be content being the member for Ohariu. Let the Families Commission disappear - you can't seriously believe it does anything worthwhile. Forget Transmission Gully, buy a dog, it will be a more friendly, rewarding and less costly pet.

However, take the offer as Speaker. You are a fair man, you could do it well, far better than the incumbent.

Dear Winston

Oh well, goodbye, farewell, amen.

You did well, starting with milking discontent from Bolger's broken election promises, then making a clean sweep of the Maori seats, leading a bunch of mediocrities into government, and recovering just enough to become Minister of Foreign Affairs. You milked latent racism against Asian immigrants, blatantly, and applied xenophobia against foreign investment, foreign goods and services. You even got some policies implemented, but how many pensioners now thank you for eliminating the vile Superannuation Surcharge that Labour implemented, National promised to remove but didn't - until you entered a coalition with National.

You're slippery as can be, always looking for a conspiracy, milking the talkback whingers and moaners, their bigotries, with flickers of intelligence - the key one I saw was your understanding of the burden of national superannuation, and seeking a way to break that by shifting it to individual contributory accounts. It was rejected because you wanted it compulsory and because your name was attached to it, but it wasn't a bad idea in some respects - compulsion being the key problem.

However, I wont miss you. You played the game of the lowest common denominator. You played the race card, without really believing it. You don't believe in choice, you don't believe in freedom, you don't judge people by what they do, but by what they are.

While you're at it, can you just arrange your party AGM early and wind up? Be a shame for those people to keep wasting their lives in your party now you're retiring.

Enjoy your retirement, after all I was forced to pay for it.

Dear Jeanette Fitzsimons

Well done, you have a couple more MPs. However I know it is disappointing you didn't do better. There are some reasons why.

1. It's a recession. You don't like economic growth, you want to spend more of people's money on things they don't want to be forced to pay for, and you want to put "the planet" ahead of people. Your environmentalism is about guilt and feeling bad for living a Western lifestyle, a lot of people frankly are fed up with your evangelical finger pointing. They want to be left alone.

2. Your patronising message about putting "our children" and "the planet" over tax cuts doesn't wash. People have children. They are not yours, families get pissed off with you and your comrades nationalising the people's children. People want tax cuts because they work fucking hard for that money - it is THEIR money - NOT yours. They know they know best how to spend it on their children NOT you. Learn that. Secondly, people see "the planet" and see that what you want them to do - ride a train, use a different lightbulb - will make no difference. After all, you talk a lot of scaremongering bollocks about oil (noticed petrol prices dropping), cellphone towers and anything "nuclear", people don't believe the end of the world is nigh - but they do care about their own lives and loved ones.

3. Most people most of the time don't want to be moralised at. It's what you self satisfied lot love to do, you love telling people what to do, telling them what not to do, telling them how "we" should spend money on things you like. Think again about being control freaks.

However you wont worry I am sure. You have, once again, been saved from being in government. Government after all harms small parties. You'll no doubt complain when National spends less of other people's money, regulates less of people's property (though I am sceptical that will happen) and gives people more of their money back. You'll frighten people about their food, about climate change, about cellphone towers and insist the planet can only be saved if people use trains more, regardless of cost.

So, given you're dyed in the wool lovers of big interfering taxing and spending government, here is one small piece of advice.

Use reason. It means not worshipping at the altars of scares like peak oil, like trains are best, like cellphone towers bad, like US military power is bad, like organic good/GE bad. It means not being scaremongers, not applying a religious fervour to matters that is a matter of faith not evidence. Then you might get more respect.

While you think about that, read Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal by Ayn Rand. Do it quietly, you might learn something.

Dear Helen Clark

Good for you conceding graciously and resigning.

You've learnt enough in politics to resign in dignity, as you've done worse. 1996 saw Labour's worst ever result with the first campaign you led the party into, in the meantime you have managed to decimate virtually every party you govern with - the Alliance and NZ First out of Parliament, United Future a one man band along with Jim Anderton. However, your greatest victory must surely be to have essentially "won" with the punters on policy. You got re-elected twice after increasing taxes, increasing the size of the state, pouring people's money into expanding welfare, state health and education, and increasing regulation and subsidies. It is what people wanted. National has been elected, largely on a platform to not alter what you've done in most cases. No privatisation, no essential change in state health and education, no end to Working for Families, Kiwisaver or the Cullen Super Fund. No end to ETS, or the anti-nuclear policy. Imitation is the highest complement, so you shouldn't fear your legacy - National was not elected on dismantling it. The views I support did not win National the election.

You've led three governments I have, almost without exception, disagreed with vehemently. You changed the law to get around the illegality of campaigning in 2005 with taxpayers' funds. You implemented many policies unannounced at the previous election. However, most of all you regarded the "state as sovereign", your love of the state and what you think as it being helpful has appalled me, but I give you credit for one thing. You still have some principles you hold onto dearly, and you, by and large, have stuck by them. Trade unions, state provided health, education, welfare and housing, state directed spending on the arts, telecommunications, transport and embracing the ecological agenda. A barely shrouded dislike of US foreign policy as well, has been part of your administration. If there is one thing to admire about you, it is that you've believed in all of this, fought it, and been determined to be consistent about that. It is more than most National Party leaders do.

So I hope you step back, resign as member for Mt Albert appropriately, and write a book. I hope, as you'd expect, that the National/ACT government does dismantle much of what you have done. That does not include civil unions and legalising prostitution - though neither measure was a government one, they were measures that did advance freedom a couple of steps. However, freedom is more than that - it is the chance to make your own choices about how you spend your money, about you and your families healthcare and education, and about adults interacting voluntarily - not having a finger pointing nanny telling them what's best. New Zealanders deserve far better than that. You spent nine years enjoying a healthy economy because of what two previous governments did to ease the size and extent of nanny's pointing finger - the free ride is over.

Goodbye, farewell, amen to you - but your policies? Well, don't worry too much.

Wellington Central: National won the party vote

Bureaucrats for the incoming government have voted for it, sort of. National came first, but add Labour and the Greens and it exceeds National and ACT.

National 11863
Labour 11339
Greens 6657
ACT 1403
NZF 531
United Future 351
Maori 272
Progressive 234
Bill and Ben 148
ALCP 73
Kiwi Party 72
Workers 33
Libertarianz 32
Family 29
Alliance 17
RAM 11
RONZ 6
Democrats 2
Pacific 2

Too early to compare with 2005, need specials for that!

Dear John Key

John

Well done, you've produced National's best result since 1990 and Labour's worst since 1996. I know you did it by essentially agreeing to much of what Labour has done, but still after 9 years it was an achievement to fight your first election as leader and win. Now you have the hard task of pleasing a few million people during a recession, with their expectations you'll fix the economy, their kids' education, their healthcare and improve law and order. You've promised to spend more of other people's money, but give some back too. Now I didn't vote National this time, as is bound to be obvious but I am glad you defeated Helen Clark - it is time for change, and your chance is now to make positive changes that both advance New Zealand, and promote a New Zealand less dependent on the state.

So I dare to give you 10 small pieces of advice:
1. Do not give Peter Dunne a Cabinet post or seek a confidence and supply agreement with him. 0.89% of the vote is not deserving of it. You don't need him as much as he wants you. He spent the last 6 years giving Labour confidence and supply, and his party is finished as a force. Make him Speaker - he has been in the House a long time, and this role would suit him. It also enables you to deal to the pointless Families Commission, and not build Transmission Gully without being held to ransom by one man.
2. Talk to Rodney Hide and Sir Roger Douglas about their roles. You need them and one of them should be in Cabinet. Hide would be easier for you, because Douglas would drive you all nuts - but Douglas should have a role. ACT will support you on law and order and tax cuts, but it needs something more - may I suggest dealing to the RMA, cleaning out bureaucracies and education vouchers as useful steps.
3. Don't enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Maori Party, but do enter into a dialogue and consultation arrangement. The Greens had this with Labour. It will pull the Maori Party into the tent, and teach them and you both very much. It isn't a chance to sell out, you have a mandate for change towards more frugal government, but it is a chance to undermine the Labour-Maori relationship of dependence.
4. Be careful who gets what Cabinet positions. May I make a few suggestions:
i. Nick Smith should not get environment/RMA, building/construction, conservation or climate change. The man is a Labour MP in very poor drag, his seat has more votes for Labour and the Greens combined than National. He will do nothing to the RMA to raise NZ's competitiveness or protect private property rights, he has never had a real job, a politician since his teens. Give him Corrections and Defence, if he needs something.
ii. Give education to someone who can fight the teachers' unions to the bitter end. Lockwood Smith is not that person. It should be a woman.
iii. Give transport to Maurice Williamson, he had a healthy hatred of the LTSA when he was Minister, and given how nationalised it became under Labour you need someone who can have it face the other way. Yes he went on about tolls, but he knows this area well.
5. Scrap the 39% top tax rate along with your tax cuts. ACT will support you, and any flack you think you'll get will fade away over the next three years. NZ$60,000 a year is not rich and it will be a huge sign that New Zealand wants its best and brightest back. Tackle the vile envy factor head on, you know how.
6. Delay the RMA fastracking for government projects and conduct a bottom up review of why you need that legislation. Let Rodney Hide do it. Start with first principles, start with private property rights and think carefully about transitional provisions, and while you're at it, read this.
7. Invite the Chief Executives of all government agencies to meet with the respective Minister, yourself and Rodney Hide. Ask the Chief Executive to explain in 5 minutes why the agency should remain, another 5 minutes to justify its current budget, another 5 minutes to outline what would happen if it closed up shop tomorrow. Those who don't satisfy you should be informed as such and either closed down or budgets slashed. Have a small group of Ministers and advisors go through budgets line by line, and cut at will.
8. Think very carefully about education, look at ACT's policy, go to Stockholm to see how it works, the UK Conservative Party has adopted a similar policy, you just need to sell it and take on the vested interests in the teachers' unions. It isn't enough, but it is a step forward to decentralising control and competition in education.
9. Send Tim Groser with yourself to Washington once the Obama Administration is sworn in. There is every risk it will turn its back on free trade, especially in agriculture. I don't need to explain how important it is to convince Obama how bad that would be for the US and the world.
10. Read George Reisman: Capitalism A Treatise of Economics, over Christmas and New Year, pass it onto Bill English as well. Demand all Cabinet Ministers read it within 3 months.

There is so much more John, but it's a start.

Good luck!

and later

I'll provide some more detailed analysis.

But congrats to the winners, and especially those Libz candidates who fought hard to spread the word of freedom. Your voices were heard.

Now to celebrate and sign off

Farewell kiwis, enjoy the celebrations. You should all at least be celebrating the demise of Winston Peters. I'm off to enjoy Saturday :)

What will the ACT bottomline be?

Here's a shortlist to start with:
- Drop the 39% tax rate
- Education vouchers
- Turn RMA on its head
- End ETS

Final count on the night

National 45.5% 41 electorate seats 18 list seats - 59
Labour 33.8% 21 electorate seats 22 list seats - 43
Greens 6.4% 8 list seats
ACT 3.7% 1 electorate and 4 list seats - 5
Maori 2.2% 5 electorate seats
Progressive 0.9% 1 electorate seats
United Future 0.9% 1 electorate seat

Outside Parliament
NZ First 4.2%
Kiwi Party 0.56% (clearly the Christian part of United Future was disenchanted)
Bill and Ben Party 0.51% (yep, people who don't give a fuck)
ALCP 0.36% (ALCP picked up votes from the Greens, but will go to sleep - again)
Pacific Party 0.33% (Philip Field couldn't get much support beyond South Auckland)
Family Party 0.33% (Destiny brand gone, the Christian vote clearly split three ways)
Alliance 0.08% (held their own despite the leftwing competition)
Democrats 0.05% (held their own as well)
Libertarianz 0.05% (up 13%)
Workers Party 0.04% (Communist rump)
RAM and Republic of New Zealand Party - can't even get votes from all their members!

08 November 2008

John Key the victor - PM elect

Obama? "They voted for change". New National led government. Thanks supporters. Voted for safer, more prosperous and more ambitious New Zealand. Inspired as a kid who rode bike from his state house past those of wealthier kids (pretty good stuff). NZ has so much more potential. Collective success rests on the success of individuals. His government values individual achievement. Thanks Clark, she gave him gracious comments on her concession. Spoke to Rodney Hide, Peter Dunne (didn't mention Maori Party), they are willing to lend support to a new government. Spoke to Tariana Turia, willingness to engage in dialogue with Maori Party next week.

So it DOES look like National/ACT/United Future, but he wont be wanting to upset the Maori Party.

(Helensville - a majority of 18,562, 15,000 ahead on party vote)

Will National do what Labour did?

Labour has always been thought to go with the Greens, and in 2005, the Maori Party.

It went with United Future in 2002, and NZ First and United Future in 2005.

National DOES have a choice this time:
- ACT
- Maori Party

Peter Dunne is an add on, he's unnecessary.

National might go with the Maori Party to broaden its base, after all it is, inherently, a conservative party. ACTivists and Rodney Hide might pause till they hear and see what John Key does.

ACT's MPs

Rodney Hide (Epsom is his through and through)
Heather Roy
Sir Roger Douglas
John Boscawen - Freedom of Speech Trust founder
David Garrett - Mr Sensible Sentencing Trust

ACT should be able to demand two Ministers from that, but will National want it?

Clark keeps the headline

As RNZ says, this is Clark grabbing the headlines tomorrow.

It wasn't a McCain concession, it was a campaigning concession.

One third new MPs and that caucus has to find a new leader. Goff, Cullen or silent T?

Clark concedes - stands down as Leader!

Congratulates John Key and National.
A night for winners to savour, but we wont be going away.
Accepts responsibility for the result.
We've achieved incredible things for New Zealanders (ugh)
Incredible amount of pride in economic growth, high employment (thanks of course to the reforms of the 80s and 90s), huge advances in public health and education (noticed those?), boosted the nation's identity and pride (yes nothing like nationalism).
Dozen new Labour MPs to join the team
Fear that all they've worked for goes up in a bonfire of flames of the rightwing (ah if only!)
Thanks Dr Cullen, family etc
Standing down as Labour leader

Clark's majority in Mt Albert slashed by 6,000 but still a respectable 8695. Party vote in Mt Albert is far closer, only 1800 ahead of National.

Electorates that have changed

Auckland Central - Kaye beats Tizard
Botany - Pansy Wong takes this new seat
Hamilton West - National's Macindoe beats Gallagher
Mangere - Labour's Sio beats Field
Maungakiekie - Lotu iiga of National beats Beaumont of Labour
New Plymouth - Young of National narrowly beats Duynhoven of Labour
Otaki - Guy of National beats Hughes of Labour
Rotorua - McClay of National beats Chadwick of Labour
Taupo - Upston of National beats Burton of Labour
Waitakere - Bennett of National beats Pillay of Labour
West Coast Tasman - Auchinvole of National beats O'Connor of Labour
Te Tai Tonga -Katene of Maori Party beats Okeroa of Labour

1015GMT: Where the hell is Clark?

Helen, it doesn't add up. Ring John Key, be the statesperson (?) you believe you are - you should have conceded half an hour ago.

Jenny Shipley was a gracious loser.

Mike Moore wasn't in 1993 and it assisted his downfall led by you. If you can't do this well, your caucus members should roll you.

Judith Tizard on RNZ

Gracefully conceding and saying she's the second Labour MP to lose Auckland Central isn't that right Richard? Good on you Judith, "elections come, elections go, you have to accept the will of the people". Wished Nikki all the best, no idea if she is in on the list, but Prebble thinks she might make it. "A changing of the guard and maybe there needs to be a change of the guard" - what could that mean Judith?

So good on you Judith, a gracious member of the Labour party.

NZ election results live: 1000 GMT

National 45.5%
Labour 33.8% a devastating hit for Labour
Greens 6.5% disappointing
NZF 4.2% more than people thought, but finally the end
ACT 3.7% good enough to demand a coalition and demand some decent steps forward
Maori 2.3% if specials overseas increase this the overhang may shrink one more

Libz on 1010

New Plymouth is now a National seat. Harry Duynhoven is gone, a massive majority overturned. Harry hasn't got a list position, so will be looking for a new job, after specials (314 majority).

Rimutaka remains Labour, Hipkins just beats Whiteside
Waimakariri close between Cosgrove and Wilkinson