Wednesday, November 05, 2008

National wont get 50% of the vote

It didn't happen for decades under First Past the Post, Muldoon got 47.6% in 1975. With ACT, United Future and even NZ First and Libertarianz, part of National's core support will be elsewhere.

So the questions become this:

Can Labour cobble together the Greens and the Maori Party to govern?
Or will National need ACT, the Maori Party and Peter Dunne altogether?

The answer could be how well Labour does in the Maori seats - you see the more Maori seats Labour wins, the better it is for National. An electorate seat win by Labour is a swap for a list seat - no net gain or loss. However an electorate seat win by the Maori Party (assuming party vote remains low) increases the size of Parliament and the threshold needed to form a government.

So how can overhang best benefit the left, and how can it benefit the right?

For the left it should want to have electorate MPs overhanging that are on its side. That means a party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. It also means a party vote for Jim Anderton's Progressives is a wasted vote. You want Jim's seat to be an overhang, along with the Maori Party ones. The Greens have no chance in any electorate so as long as they get 5% the left should be happy, regardless of whether it is bled off Labour or not. However, the left needs the Greens to reach 5%, otherwise it is over. NZ First breaking 5% would help the left immensely too.

For the right, it needs the same. Let's be clear, that means a vote for United Future is a wasted vote. Peter Dunne as an overhang would be good for National. ACT clearly has enough party votes to not overhang, even if it picks up Botany. More clearly it needs NZ First to not reach 5%. The Greens missing 5% is also important. However it is better for the Maori seats to go Labour and for Maori to vote for the Maori Party, to avoid THAT overhang.

However, if National is willing to do a deal with the Maori Party that it is willing to do - which may be questionable, then it is another story.

Me? Well I'll tell you later how I think you should all vote in every electorate.

1 comment:

Eric Crampton said...

iPredict puts National's chances of a majority at 18%. The most likely configuration of Parliament given current market prices of the various vote share markets and the Maori seats is:
Act 4
NAT 58
UF 1
NZ1 0
LAB 42
GRN 10

Market's saying 4% party vote for Maori, and UF is polling at 0.5%, so only overhang is Anderton.

Market's saying 27% chance Maori supports National and another 23% chance they abstain.