New Zealand politics in 2024

2023 was a year when New Zealand voters most adamantly said they wanted change. The near personality-cult around Jacinda Ardern had well and truly eroded, as the rhetoric around the government of “kindness” (implemented using the monopoly of legitimised violence of the state) and the budget of “wellbeing” (implemented by taking money from current and future generations) seemed increasingly empty. The government so committed to ending poverty had presided over the fastest increase in personal wealth by homeowners in modern history and its primary response was to tax landlords who didn’t want to rent out their properties for fewer than ten years without selling them.  It presented itself as a victim of external forces, whether it be Covid or inflation which NZ was constantly told was due to the war in Ukraine, even though many of NZ’s trading partners had lower inflation.

Although there was a brief flurry of excitement about Chris Hipkins, appearing to recalibrate Labour on “what matters”, voters were largely unconvinced. Hipkins follows Mike Moore and Bill Rowling in leading Labour to landslide defeats, albeit for different reasons. Jacinda Ardern is nearly invisible in the country that was hailed internationally for keeping Covid out, and she is now hailed internationally by those who never visited NZ, and she is now at Harvard, whose President Claudine Gay is surrounded by scandal around claiming that if a student of Harvard advocated for genocide against Jews, it would “depend on the context” as to whether it breached its policy on harassment and bullying. Claudine Gay is also now facing accusations of plagiarism in her earlier work.

The former Prime Minister of kindness hasn’t been approached for comment on what she thinks about the head of her new gig’s ambivalence about anti-semitism, but then again why would she abandon her career of highly-paid talkfests?

Meanwhile the 2023 election saw a threeway split in positions. While 27% were willing to give Chippy a go, 15% thought Labour had been far too timid and voted for the Greens and Te Pati Maori to advance a much more radical socialist, intersectionist, ethno-nationalist set of reforms including more tax, more spending, much more transfer of power from the state and Parliament to Iwi, and radical central planning around provision of health, education and the economy, let alone expansion of the welfare state to a universal benefit. 

The Greens and Te Pati Maori saw the changes as being that Labour didn’t do enough to address what it said it was doing about key issues such as climate change, poverty and Tino Rangitiratanga.  He Puapua was seen as a step along a journey of major constitutional change that would see Iwi standing side-by-side with Parliament and the “colonising” Government sharing power. Te Pati Maori successfully sold this vision to voters in almost all of the Maori seats, but Labour couldn’t sell the path of radical change to the general population, especially when questioning or criticising the path of more co-governance was simply labelled as racist and ignored.  

Fortunately around 55% (including some of the minor parties) voted in the other direction, with a mix of centre-right incrementalism (National), classical liberalism (ACT) and a touch of conservatism and nationalism (NZ First), with a couple of bones thrown at traditionalists.  It’s a historic switch in electoral support for Labour to lose 46% of the votes it gained in 2020 as a proportion of votes cast.  

The 2020 election was extraordinary, Labour got an unprecedented majority based almost entirely on having kept Covid 19 out of the country and life being relatively normal (albeit with foreign travel restricted for all but select politicians, officials and others chosen by the Government) compared to countries enduring extended lockdowns. Labour took that as a chance to embark on a series of radical reforms that ultimately saw its undoing. As it borrowed and spent to at first save businesses from collapse during the pandemic and then stimulate the economy, it went on to literally pay people money for nothing, and then blame inflation entirely on outside factors. As it increased benefits in order to address poverty (due in no small part due to a persistent housing shortage that can be blamed on governments of all stripes over the previous 25 years). it was no surprise that as baby boomers reached retirement age, a shortage of staff would emerge, as a generation withdrew from the labour force (bolstered by National Superannuation and inflated housing prices) and a growing number simply opted out of paid work altogether. Since 2017 the statutory minimum wage had been increased by just over 44%, even though prices in that same time had increased 25%. 

Reports of increasingly aggressive crime including ramraids were far too often dismissed or minimised, at least for those who were the victims of it, as it appeared that crime increasingly did pay.  Meanwhile, much needed reforms to the water sector had layered over them a complex governance structure that was to see Iwi, in four groups, deciding half of the members of boards, who would determine the members of another set of board, that would govern fresh, waste and stormwater infrastructure across the country.  This was all apparently because Te Tiriti now meant Iwi would have governance rights over whatever sectors the Government said it should – and infrastructure was now part of that.  It wasn’t enough for territorial authorities that own the infrastructure to consult with Iwi, not enough for there to be Iwi representatives on councils through exclusively Maori wards (which are democratically elected), but that Iwi would have equivalent powers to local government. Although some of the backlash against Three Waters was ill-directed mindless racism, the core issue – why should the future management of ratepayer owned assets be half governed by Iwi (who were already at the table of local government)?

Other completely unnecessary measures also gave the impression of a government less concerned about inflation and crime, than it was on social engineering and seeking to look as if it was addressing what it thought was important, when much of the public were concerned about the cost of living and threats to their families.

The aftermath of the Christchurch Mosque attack generated calls, particularly from parts of the Muslim community, to toughen laws on hate speech, primarily around religion. This raised concern that proposals advanced by the Ardern Government would constrain speech around ridiculing religions as “hate speech”.  Ultimately this was suspended, but it helped fuel a mix of genuine concerns around freedom of speech and conspiratorial concerns about a much more sinister intent.  Jacinda Ardern’s tone-deaf but well-meaning claim during the pandemic that if information “doesn’t come from us, then you can’t believe it” sounded straight out of the playbook of a dictatorship. No liberal democracy can or should claim it has the monopoly of truth, because it simply does not and cannot. 

The Public Interest Journalism Fund came from criticism that it was funding journalism that supported the Government’s policies, which although in some ways unfair, did include funding that specifically indicated a philosophical approach to some issues that was controversial, particularly around Te Tiriti. The lines between government and activism became blurred, including by the “Disinformation Project” which was clearly endorsed by the government, but which itself had its own ideological line.

The Disinformation Project of course has its own blind spots. It’s regular reporting of research by Byron Clark, former supporter of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (a breakaway communist led terrorist faction of the PLO) and the communist Workers Party of New Zealand, who was particularly focused on what he called the “far-right” didn’t ever reflect on the perspective someone clearly from the far-left would have on what is “extremist”. 

The 2021 controversy over the so-called “Listener 7” who claimed Matauranga isn’t science, and the long list of academics who sought to humiliate and denigrate them was also part of this dominant discourse in academia, media and politics. It was seen as an attempt to “cancel” and “close” debate on the topic, which extended to Dr Richard Dawkins in the UK, and responses claiming racism and colonialism emerged.  The debate around transgender rights, and the visit by “Posie Parker” supported by a coalition of womens’ rights activists and social conservatives saw similar discourse emerge, with a vehemence of anger and hatred.  All of this rubbed of on Labour, with a strong indication that there were opinions that brought “consequences” around employment and being accepted by academia, media and even business as having “correct” views on controversial topics. 

It's a side point that many of the same people who wanted “consequences” for challenging trans and Te Tiriti discourse run frightened when supporters of the Jewish community and opponents of Hamas condemn their Hamas-inspired rhetoric and slogans.

The majority of the voting public took in a mix of the narrative around the government, the cost of living crisis and concern about a lack of delivery (and performance personally about a growing list of Ministers who simply failed to meet standards of behaviour that should be expected of them).  ACT voters were dominated by those who had had enough of the growth in spending and taxation, and the politics of intersectionality and identity. National voters were primarily concerned about performance and lack of delivery, including the money wasted on expensive schemes seen as “out of touch” with what voters cared about. NZ First happily hoovered up the Covid 19 vaccine sceptics and opponents, but also returned to opposition to Maori nationalism and separatism and hitching onto other culture wars for convenience (see trans-rights).

There is now a National-led government that appears to clearly want to stem the growth in the state and, at the very least, return its size to that seen in 2017. It has clearly reversed some policies and is winding back reforms such as the centralisation of tertiary vocational training, the separate Maori health authority and Three Waters. Although some of the discourse around the government is catastrophism and projection of deranged phobia around its objectives (claims it wants to “erase” Maori or trans-people are unhinged nonsense), it is promising as a National-led government that actually is changing direction, which seems in part driven by ACT and NZ First both wanting to make their mark on the government. This should not be a surprise, as National did not win 40% of the vote, and is more dependent on both minor parties than it had been in the Key/English era.  There is also a generation of younger National, ACT and NZ First politicians who are fed up with a centre-right government simply pausing the advance towards more government and more compulsory collectivism.  

So far so good with most measures taken. It is obvious that Fair Pay Agreements had to go, along with the labyrinthine replacement to the RMA.  It’s particularly encouraging from an individual freedom perspective to see the removal of the tobacco prohibition measures, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth of neo-puritans on the left some who rightfully campaign to legalise cannabis but can’t see the inconsistency of prohibiting sales of tobacco to a growing number of adults.  We will wait to see what will come to replace the RMA.  

What I really want to see is for charter schools to flourish, to expand in number and for the thumping fist of the bureaucratic and professional union monopolies weakened in the control of the education system. I want the RMA replaced with private property rights. Nicola Willis has promisingly indicated willingness to cut core spending of many departments to 2017 levels, and for tax cuts.  

Of course, it wont be a libertarian government, but it looks like being a government that will turn back at least some of the spending and some of the regulation, and even some of the philosophical culture of the previous government. A government that is more interested in productivity and growth of private enterprise, rather than confiscation and distribution of the proceeds of production, and regulation and control of private individuals and their property. 

I can only hope that the calibre of Ministers will be on a significantly higher level than that of the Ardern/Hipkins era, and to be honest it wont be that hard. Nobody should pretend that it is easy to address crime or healthcare, because the fundamental reasons for both of this are long-standing and difficult to confront, but this government ought to focus on some key issues that it can start to turn around.  Educational choice and performance, and the barriers to enabling more housing.  If only it can adeptly take on the inevitable barrage of criticism from academia, media and the Opposition, who are eager to call it out as racist, misogynist, transphobic, white supremacist, neo-colonialist, neo-imperialist and every other blanket collectivist pejorative that can be lazily thrown around. Hopefully the front bench will have the testicular fortitude to respond intelligently and confidently to critiques, but more importantly give minimal reasons for criticism based on performance.

So in 2024 the National Party appears revitalised, and despite the critics, Christopher Luxon has emerged as Prime Minister, it is too early to tell whether the man as PM can prove to be greater than as Opposition Leader.  However, National might actually look like a government that isn’t conservative (in the sense of not changing) about Labour policies.

Labour is scarred, having few seats outside the main centres (Palmerston North and Nelson hanging on), and about to embark on a battle between the hardliners who think it lost for not being socialist enough (although if that were true, then those voters would have gone to the Greens and Te Pati Maori in sufficient numbers to give Labour a chance at government), and those who wonder how it could moderate its image and gain the confidence of voters again. For now, it looks like Labour will spend some time in the wilderness.

The Greens are buoyant because they have done very well indeed, winning two more electorates in Wellington, demonstrating very clearly the yawning gap between many Wellingtonians (including public servants, students and those working for industries supporting government) and the rest of the country, but maybe also the arrogance of Labour which thought it could parachute whoever it chose into two relatively safe seats, and win.  

ACT has a right to be pleased, because it will now have a more influential role in government than ever before. Hopefully it will be a greater success than Rodney Hide implementing Helen Clark’s vision for a greater Auckland Council, and it should enable ACT to stamp its mark on key issues such as education, gun regulation and freedom of speech.

Nobody rules out Winston anymore, as he pivoted and succeeded in being the voice for those who felt like their views, whether on Covid or Te Tiriti or on trans-issues, NZ First became the new conservatives, and a voice for those who felt unheard. The test for Winston Peters is whether he is seen as putting enough of a mark on this government to keep support for the following election. 

Finally Te Pati Maori will feel vindicated in reviving radical nationalist socialism with its support for the destruction of Israel and indifference to Russian irredentism. At best it showed Labour’s arrogance in assuming it still could own Maori voters, but at worst in indicates the outcome of many years of the promotion of intersectionality and structuralist theories in parts of Maoridom and by the state more directly. Labour funded and supported this philosophy while in government, and those who support it have found an authentic voice in favour of it – but it is not a position a majority of Maori, let alone voters in NZ, share.

Have a Happy 2024.

2023 General Election: Electorate voting guide Part One: Auckland Central to Northland... and now Part Two: Northland to Wigram

For some time now, I've tried to put together an electorate voting guide for those with a libertarian bent. Whether you vote ACT, National or any other party you think will advance more freedom and less government, you know that with a few exceptions, it is the Party vote that is critical in determining the numbers in Parliament.  Electorate votes are either in safe Labour, safe National or marginal seats, or in a few cases seats that are or might be won by a minor party (Greens, Te Pati Maori, NZ First, ACT or now TOP).

You can choose to not bother if you don't like any of them, but I'm suggesting that in most cases it is worth making a selection.  A general rule of thumb is if it is a safe Labour or National seat, you ought to vote for a minor party candidate who is promising, or if the Nat is of a more classically liberal bent, then maybe vote for him or her.  However, the seats where the Greens or Te Pati Maori hold or are likely to win, keep them out. Both parties are antithetical to values of individual freedom, less government, free market capitalism and Enlightenment values around freedom of speech and private property rights. 

Auckland Central:

Chloe Swarbrick took this in 2020 and she will be confident she’ll keep it, but Chloe is a rabid socialist with a penchant for cheering on Palestinians who want to wipe out Israel.  She’s also a complete control freak on alcohol, so we don’t need a neo-puritanical moral equivocator here. Removing the Greens from having an electorate is the most important goal here, so given it was a National seat for so long, give Mahesh Muralidhar from National a tick, to evict Chloe. He’s an entrepreneur, although he has a MBA, don’t hold it against him, as he’ll be better than Oscar Sims from Labour.   Mahesh Muralidhar, National

Banks Peninsula:

Held by Tracey McLellan of Labour, there’s no point voting for a former union organiser and expecting less government.  However her main opponent is National candidate Dr Vanessa Weenink who is a GP who has had roles in the doctors’ union. She seems better and has a chance, but if you want to give a libertarian a tick, vote for Laura Trask of ACT, who declares herself to be a libertarian.  Laura Trash, ACT

Bay of Plenty:

Todd Muller is standing down, but this is a safe National seat and Tom Rutherford is likely to win. He seems like a nice enough chap but his background is experience in communications, media and local government. Haven’t we had enough of that sort of thing? Cameron Luxton is the ACT candidate, but he is number 11, so has a high chance of getting elected anyway and he’s a tradesman, so he’s of better use outside Parliament. Meh, give Luxton a tick so the Nats pick someone who isn’t a spin doctor.  Cameron Luxton, ACT

Botany:

Luxon’s seat, used to elect Jamie-Lee Ross.  Now Luxon is no libertarian, but if you’d rather not vote for a future PM, your choices are not great. Bo Burns from ACT says nothing to convince me she believes in less government, indeed being on the Howick Local Board is a bit of a red flag. Sure social conservatives could support Dieuwe de Boer from the New Conservatives, but he’s no libertarian. No enthusiasm here at all, but I’d probably default to Luxon, as he’s done nothing seriously wrong, yet.  Christopher Luxon, National

Christchurch Central:

The sitting MP Duncan Webb (Labour) is an odious little creep who is well known for being a member of a Palestinian solidary Facebook group that tolerates rabid anti-semitism and Holocaust denial. It’s not always been a Labour seat, but it is morally compelling to vote for the candidate most likely to evict this socialist who is National candidate Dale Stephens. Yes he was a cop, and there is little sign he holds much belief in free enterprise and reducing the size of the state, but the imperative here is to remove Webb.  Dale Stephens, National

Christchurch East: 

Labour’s Poto Williams is thankfully standing down, with the new candidate for Labour being Reuben Davidson who seems tedious and uninteresting.  National is offering Matt Stock, a teacher who seems nice enough, but Toni Severin from ACT, who is currently a list MP, is a better bet as she talks about freedom, school choice and less government.  Toni Severin, ACT

Coromandel:

National’s Scott Simpson holds this seat and is almost certain to win again.  He is a social liberal, but Joanna Verburg from ACT seems a better bet being more committed to freedom.  Joanna Verburg, ACT

Dunedin:

With David Clark retiring, Labour is punting up List MP Rachel Brooking in this safe seat.  She’s a former lawyer with a specialty in resource management law, so don’t expect a lot of belief in private property rights. Michael Woodhouse is the perennial National candidate who has only really a tinge of supporting more freedom and less government. However, ACT candidate Tim Newman is pushing for a tram through Dunedin, which isn’t going to come from private investment is it?  So go for Adrian McDermott from the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party because well, he believes in something.  Adrian McDermott, Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

East Coast:

With Kiri Allan bowing out, Tamati Coffey as Labour list MP is having another shot at winning an electorate. He’s out of his depth and Rawiri Waititi beat him in Waiariki during a Labour landslide, so he’s useless as a campaigner and let’s not forget he sponsored the racist draft Bill (Rotorua District Council (Representation Arrangements) Bill) to give Rotorua District Counci Maori seats that required far fewer voters to elect Councillors than general seats. This himbo needs to be defeated, so although Dana Kirkpatrick from National is not compelling, it is worth to vote for her to kick this carpetbagger out of Parliament.  Dana Kirkpatrick, National

East Coast Bays:

Erica Stanford for National is safe here, and whilst she has some passion for change that is positive, having been on the record that National could work with the Greens and being supportive of a School Strike 4 Climate, you would think you could better than her. Michael McCook of ACT might be promising, but he’s a tax accountant who wants more representation of small business at the government level. How’s that consistent with free enterprise and less government? Paul Adams of New Zeal looks no better, and Bill Dyet from New Zealand Loyal seems like a nut. Labour list MP Naisi Chen is likely to just be worse than Stanford.  Honestly, I’d just not bother.   

Epsom: 

David Seymour is a shoo-in here nowadays but given his efforts to dilute measures to enhance the property rights of local property owners, there should be a review of the other options. Labour list MP Camilla Belich is a union lawyer, so forget her. National’s Paul Goldsmith isn’t inspiring either, being opposed to cannabis legalisation, even though he was brave in saying he thought colonisation was, on balance, good for Maori. There’s nothing inspiring in the NZ First and TOP candidates to support freedom (and NZ Loyal are lunatics), so you might give Seymour a tick for his efforts in standing up to a lot of abuse for having some very defensible positions.  David Seymour, ACT

Hamilton East:

Hamilton East is a marginal and tends to vote National more often than not, although it is held by Jamie Strange of Labour, as a rare social conservative in Labour, he’s not standing again. Georgie Dansey is standing, she is a union chief executive, so there is nothing here about less government. Ryan Hamilton, the National candidate has the best chance, who is a city councillor (sigh) and a small business owner. That’s not particularly inspiring, but bear in mind this is a marginal seat, you may just want to keep Labour out, which is a worthy goal. If you want someone a bit more interesting, Himanshu Parma, who has a real passion for whisky, is the ACT candidate and is much more promising.  We need more MPs with passion for alcohol.  Himanshu Parma, ACT

Hamilton West:

Remember Guarav Sharma? Well he’s not wasting time and money standing against Labour again. This seat is held by National’s Tama Potaka who ought to hold it and has a fairly impressive business background. Voting for him to keep Myra Williamson from Labour (who has a Ph.D from the University of Waikato) is reasonable, given Susan Stevenson from ACT says nothing about freedom on her profile. Tama Potaka, National

Hauraki-Waikato:

One of the Maori electorates, you would think Nanaia Mahuta should be safe here given the tendency to vote for the family name. Mahuta is behind the push for co-governance and eroding liberal democracy at local government with unelected Iwi members, and she is uninspiring as Foreign Minister, having “both-sided” Israel and Hamas with her first comment on the recent brutal attacks. The excuse of it being drafted by MFAT is not being accountable. So I’d be happy if Mahuta lost, but look at the alternatives. The main challenge is Te Pati Maori’s Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. Leaving aside the threats and home invasion story, Maipi-Clarke is notable for blaming other people’s ideas for the threats and she wrote a book on astrology. There’s no point voting for a young communist to replace one of the old guard who whilst flawed is much less dangerous.  The third option may be tempting but Donna Pokere-Philips stood for Te Pati Maori in 2020 and stood for TOP in 2017 (and was number 6 on the list, which tells you a LOT about how useless TOP was in screening candidates) and in 1999 stood for the hard-left Alliance.  She may lead the Outdoors & Freedom Party now, but who knows what she believes in other than opposing the Covid vaccine (which she apparently described as a bio-weapon)? Pokere-Philips might be tempting to be disruptive, but since she hops all over the political spectrum she can hardly be trusted. Just hold out and pick Nanaia Mahuta, Labour if at all to keep TPM out.

Hutt South:

This never really was a marginal, as it used to be considered safe Labour, but Chris Bishop changed all that.  Ginny Andersen took it from him in 2020, and she’s hardly the worst Labour MP, but she’s been hopeless as a Cabinet Minister, and so it is right to vote to remove her. Your choice is Chris Bishop for National, who is indefatigable locally, or Andy Parkins for ACT, who claims to be in favour of freedom and personal responsibility. Bishop is passionate about enabling more housing to be built, even if he doesn’t have quite the right solution yet (there needs to be mandatory liberalisation of planning laws to build up and out, not leaving it to Councils who are the problem). He is a social liberal. Take it off Labour and pick Chris Bishop, National

Ikaroa-Rawhiti:

Meka Whaitiri’s seat which she has left to join Te Pati Maori, so she shouldn’t be rewarded for joining the socialist ethno-nationalists. To stop her you have to vote for Cushla Tangaere‑Manuel of Labour. Ata Tuhakaraina of Vision NZ (Destiny Church) has his own story of turning his life around, and isn’t a bad choice, but let’s be serious. None of these candidates will be advocating for more freedom and less government.  The priority here is keeping Te Pati Maori’s ethno-nationalism away from Parliament, so it is Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, Labour

Ilam:

Feel relieved that Gerry Brownlee isn’t standing, but Sarah Pallett from Labour has to go. She’s just another unionist.  Of course Raf Manji from TOP is standing here as well, but TOP believes in more state, more welfare and he is campaigning for pork-barrel funding for Christchurch. It’s like the public service has its own party.  Enough of that, it is important to block TOP and Pallett, so give Hamish Campbell from National your vote, just to clear them out of the way.

Invercargill:

On paper this looks marginal as National’s Penny Simmonds won it by a small margin in 2020, but this is usually a safe National seat. Simmonds opposed vaccine mandates and opposed suppression of the speech of abortion opponents near hospitals, which might gain her more support than she would get otherwise.  Scott Donaldson of ACT talks vaguely about freedoms.  There’s no strong reason to oppose Simmonds, but her willingness to speak up on vaccine mandates is rare in the National Party, so I’d say Penny Simmonds, National

Kaikoura:

Another safe mostly rural National seat, held by Stuart Smith. Having been Chair of the Winegrowers’ Association wins credit in my book, but given this is a safe seat it is worth looking around for better options. Keith Griffiths of ACT is not inspiring, and David Greenslade from the New Conservatives is into binding citizens’ initiated referenda, so that’s out. The independents are either unknown or weird. On balance, vote for the wine man. Stuart Smith, National

Kaipara ki Mahurangi:

Chris Penk is National MP in this fairly safe seat, he is interesting because he actually speaks his mind. He is a bit of a social conservative given voting on euthanasia and abortion and transgenderism, but I’m not holding all that against him as the guy has a sense of humour. A lawyer who spent time in the navy is interesting sure. Brent Bailey from ACT is better than some ACT candidates in talking about excessive government intervention, but on balance Penk seems to deserve another shot. Chris Penk, National

Kelston:

This safe Labour seat is held by Carmel Sepuloni and she is currently Deputy PM.  You absolutely wont want a prospective future leader of the party of democratic socialism, but you’re unlikely to unseat her, but Dr Ruby Shaumkel from National is smart and better than Jake Curran from ACT who says “public service is his calling”. We don’t need more ACT MPs who think that. Alister Hood from the New Conservatives talks explicitly about tax cuts, the doubling in the size of government, although localism is not individualism.  You might consider Hood if you’re not worried about social conservatism, or if you want to narrow Sepuloni’s majority, vote for Shaumkel, but I wouldn’t bother.

Mana:

Barbara Edmonds of Labour holds this safe Labour seat, she was a tax lawyer and political advisor to Stuart Nash, so you’ll want to vote against her. Dr Frances Hughes is the National candidate, but there is nothing in her profile that suggests any belief in less government. Lily Brown from ACT is better, but you can’t go past Richard Goode from NAP (Not a Party) as someone who actually believes in individual freedom.  Richard Goode, NAP

Mangere:

Another solidly Labour seat with William Sio standing down, so Lemauga Lydia Sosene is standing for Labour. She has a diploma in business administration and has been a local councillor, so is more interesting than most Labour candidates. You’ll want to take a stand against Labour though, so Pothen Joseph from ACT, who is loudly in favour of individualism is your best bet. Rosemary Bourke from National seems reasonable enough, but Joseph would be a vote for freedom. Pothen Joseph, ACT

Manurewa:

Arena Williams is Labour MP for this safe seat and she advances a greater welfare state. She will win again, but your choices here are slim. National’s Siva Kilari has a rags to moderate riches story that is worth endorsing to try to demonstrate that entrepreneurship not welfarism is the answer to advancing people’s lives. Siva Kilari, National

Maungakiekie:

Priyanca Radhakrishnan from Labour holds this marginal seat, which could easily switch to National. You wont want her to remain MP, so you might consider Greg Fleming, the National candidate who is notable for being a founder of the Maxim Institute, a conservative think tank.  You’ll pick Fleming to pick up a win from Labour, and at that moment that’s a positive, but if personal liberty matters to you, you’ll struggle to vote for him. On balance I’d probably prefer to give Labour a bloody nose here than miss the chance, but if you can’t stomach Fleming, Margo Onishchenko from ACT would be your better choice.  Margo Onishchenko, ACT

Mount Albert:

Jacinda Ardern is the MP not standing again, so you’ll feel less concerned about voting out Helen White who will win the seat for Labour (she is a union lawyer whose main redeeming feature is owning a dachshund).  Melissa Lee is standing for National, and she’s been around for a while, but doesn’t even have a functioning profile on the National website. Ollie Murphy from ACT leads Young ACT and seems to support less government.  Murphy if you want to bother.  Ollie Murphy, ACT

Mount Roskill:

Little Michael Wood is safe here, but he’s such a little socialist that you’ll want to put this tiresome union hack in his place. Carlos Cheung for National was born in Hong Kong and is both a businessman and a medical professional.. Rahul Chopra of ACT says on his profile he is a board member for the Department of Conservation, which must be a typo. I’d be tempted to give Carlos Cheung the vote, because someone from Hong Kong is likely to be more free market oriented than most in the National Party.  Carlos Cheung, National

Napier:

With Stuart Nash retiring in some disgrace, Labour is punting Mark Hutchinson, a management consultant, to replace him.  On paper the seat is usually Labour, but this can be stopped, and Hutchinson’s weak class rhetoric is worth opposing. You should pick Katie Nimon from National who actually says “I have always believed that a limited government, and competitive enterprise, sees the most positive impact on communities”.  Give National this woman for its caucus, it needs more of this.  Katie Nimon, National.

Nelson:

Last election you followed me in ejecting Nick Smith, an enemy of private property rights, from this seat. Now it’s time to eject union organiser and big government advocate Rachel Boyack of Labour. Blair Cameron of National is uninspiring, but although Chris Baillie of ACT is better, the goal to get Labour out seems worth pursuing.  Blair Cameron, National

New Lynn:

Another Labour safe seat held by Deborah Russell of Labour who was wholly unsympathetic towards small businesses facing ruin during the pandemic. She’s been hopeless as a Minister, although is moderately socially conservative. You want this tax expert who seems to love tax far too much to be out. National’s Paulo Garcia seems a nice enough chap, but ACT’s Juan Alvarez De Lugo is from Venezuela and is much more likely to be committed to freedom and free markets, so give him your vote. Juan Alvarez De Lugo, ACT

New Plymouth:

Labour holds this swing seat with Glen Bennett who seems reasonable enough, but Labour needs to lose. David MacLeod from National will do it, but Bruce McGechan of ACT is a far better candidate, openly classical liberal who believes in education reform.  Bruce McGechan, ACT

North Shore:

This safe National seat is held by Simon Watts who is benign enough, but ACT’s Anna Yallop doesn’t inspire any better.  Take your pick or don’t bother

Northcote:

Labour’s Shanan Halbert holds this relatively marginal seat, and whether or not you believe or care about the bullying allegations, he’s unimpressive, so needs to be defeated. Dan Bidois of National is seeking to win the seat back, and ought to be given the chance even though he is an economist.  Dan Bidois, National

Northland:

This seat is usually National, so it is unusual that Willow-Jean Prime from Labour won it in 2020. She’ll probably get in on the list, but she’s a Te Tiriti focused lawyer, so is not going to be a friend of property rights and individual freedom. Grant McCallum for National is a better bet.  You’ll want to avoid grifter Shane Jones, and Matt King (DemocracyNZ) has no chance and isn’t strong enough on freedom to counter that. Mark Cameron from ACT will get in on the list, and doesn’t say enough to differentiate himself from McCallum.  So Grant McCallum, National.

Ohariu:

Peter Dunne is almost forgotten here, as Labour’s Greg O’Connor tries to hang on here in a seat that is probably the most centre-right of any in Wellington City. No-one who headed the cop union is going to be in favour of less government, so you’ll want him out. Nicola Willis of National has the best chance of doing this. I’ll give note to Jessica Hammond from TOP, because I know her and she’s smart, but if she wins she brings more TOP people with her, and that wont help the cause of more freedom and less government.  I’d reluctantly back Nicola Willis here because she seems to have put her job on the line for tax cuts, so let’s hold her to that. Nicola Willis, National

Otaki:

Terisa Ngobi of Labour took this belweather seat in 2020, but it seems likely to switch to National’s Tim Costley. Sure he’ll be better, but ACT’s Sean Rush who was a Wellington City Councillor who did push back against a leftwing agenda there, so he would have been a better bet if he didn’t engage in shenanigans to promote himself whilst he was a Councillor. He made too many screw-ups to support, so you could vote for Bob Wessex, NAP if you want to be fully libertarian, or if you just want Labour out, vote for Costley.

Pakuranga:

National’s Simeon Brown is a shoo-in, as this is a safe National seat. He’s a social conservative for those who find that appealing or not, but what I like is how much he upsets so many people on the left.  Parmjeet Parmar, who was a National MP, is now the ACT candidate, and while she is clever, there is little evidence she would be better than Brown. John Alcock from Rock the Vote NZ actually does seem to be more committed to liberty, but I’m always wary of people who want more local decisionmaking, because it just replaces central bureaucracy with local finger-waggers. I’d give Simeon Brown, National the tick to upset lefties, but you wouldn’t be wrong to give Alcock a tick for at least talking a lot about freedom.

Palmerston North:

This is typically a safe Labour seat, and the largely unknown Tangi Utikere is standing again for Labour. You wont want to bother with this ex.teacher, so Ankit Bansal from National (although he has a MBA) is worth looking at, given his profile is explicit about stopping wasteful spending. Michael Harnett of ACT isn’t inspiring, and there is no one else worth voting for.  So maybe give Ankit Bansal, National your vote

Panmure-Otahuhu:

This relatively new seat is a very safe Labour seat, but the holder of it is the odious Jenny Salesa. There are sound reasons why she didn’t become a Minister after the 2020 election when Labour had an absolute majority, so you absolutely should vote for whoever can send her out of Parliament, as she should not be anywhere near power. National’s Navtej Singh Randhawa is the best bet, he is a businessman who offers the best chance to remove Salesa.  Navtej Singh Randhawa, National

Papakura:

This has long been a safe National seat and Judith Collins is standing again. Mike McCormick of ACT talks explicitly about free speech and private property rights, so you should vote for him.  Mike McCormick, ACT

Port Waikato:

Your electorate vote wont count this time, so just the party vote until the by-election.

Rangitata:

This usually National seat went insane and voted Jo Luxton for Labour in 2020. She’s a yawn and a half, so what else is there? James Meager of National will probably win, he’s a lawyer who seems to be keen on “drafting laws to make every day New Zealanders' lives better and more prosperous”.  We don’t need that, but ACT is standing nobody here, and the only other candidate talking much about freedom is Michael Clarkson of Rock The Vote, but he is also keen on government not controlling what local authorities do. Karl Thomas, who is number three on the New Conservatives list doesn’t say much either.  You might vote James Meager, National to give Labour a thrashing, but I don’t know if I’d bother.

Rangitikei:

A streak of insanity used to run through this electorate when it was smaller in the FPP days and Social Credit’s leader Bruce Beetham would win it in the 70s and early 80s.  Under MMP it has been solidly National, but Ian McElvie is not standing again, so it is really whether Suze Redmayne for National is worth your vote. She’s a farmer so very much a traditional rural National MP. Former Federated Farmers President Andrew Hoggard is having a shot with ACT, and although he is a shoo in on the party list, I’d give him a go.  Andrew Hoggard, ACT

Remutaka:

Chippy’s seat has been solidly labour since MMP formed it, although it came close in 2008. The only real point here is to give Chippy a bit of a fright, so vote Emma Chatterton, National. 

Rongotai:

I live here now, and it is usually a safe Labour seat with former Wellington City Councillor Fleur Fitzsimons failing up to try to represent this electorate. Anti “car-fascists” Julie-Anne Genter from the Greens reckons she has a shot, and she might as the Greens scraped into second in 2020. Stopping Fitzsimons failing up is tempting, but Genter wants more government, more taxes and who can support the Greens when led by the odious Marama Davidson who equate Hamas with the IDF? Karuna Muthu from National is not very good at specific, besides a second Mt Victoria Tunnel (which Genter only supports for walking and cycling, in effect).  I’d give Karuna Muthu, National a shot if only to frustrate the other two.

Rotorua:

Todd McClay of National held onto this seat barely in 2020. Besides a try at liberalising trading on Easter Sunday, there isn’t a lot of freedom advocacy here, he is moderately social conservative. Marten Rozeboom of ACT isn’t compelling either. Otherwise it is curious that Merepeka Raukawa-Tait is standing for Te Pati Maori, when she used to stand for Christian Heritage, but you shouldn’t vote for her.  Meh, if you can bothered with Todd McClay you might give him a tick to ensure Labour stays out, but I wouldn’t bother.

Selwyn:

Safe National seat held by Nicola Grigg. She’s ok, but Ben Harvey from ACT says the “l” word (but not much else to back it up).  You might give Ben a chance if you like, but there’s not much in it.  Ben Harvey, ACT

Southland:

Another solidly National seat held by Joseph Mooney. He got into trouble for saying Te Tiriti promises Tino Rangatiratanga to everyone, which is an entirely defensible libertarian position. Todd Stephenson from ACT talks of being a classical liberal, so a vote for him would be fair too, but you could also vote for Anntwinette Grumball for the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party instead.  Honestly, you might feel a bit spoilt for choice here. Stephenson will get in on the list anyway, Mooney probably wont, so you might give Mooney a go, or just go out there and vote Anntwinette Grumball, ALCP 

Taieri:

Labour’s Ingrid Leary won this new seat in 2020 and it is a safe seat. She seems to favour a wealth tax and although she is quite good on China, you’re not going to get less government with her. The rivals aren’t greatly inspiring, Matthew French from National seems benign, and Burty Meffan from ACT says nothing about freedom so why bother with him? I’d probably just tick Matthew French, National just to cut Leary’s majority.

Takanini:

This new seat in 2020 is a safe Labour seat held by Neru Leavasa. He’s a doctor and a rare social conservative in Labour. National’s challenger is Rima Nakhle, a business manager for an organisation providing community and transitional housing.  You might choose to vote for her as she does mention wasteful government spending, but that’s the extent of it. Rae Ah Chee from ACT Is more committed to law and order.  So maybe vote for Rima Nakhle, National although social conservatives could fairly vote for Leavasa given his views on abortion.

Tamaki:

A rare real battle between National and ACT, which is really a question of social conservative vs. social liberal. Simon O'Connor is the social conservative candidate, but Brooke van der Valden from ACT is the better choice. She ought to be the next ACT leader, and so give Brooke van Velden, ACT your tick

Tamaki Makaurau:

Auckland’s Maori seat is a bit of a battle. Peeni Henare held onto it against John Tamihere in 2020. Henare is far from ideal, but as in most of the Maori seats, this is about resisting the anti-capitalist, anti-liberal democracy, Russia and Hamas sympathisers in Te Pati Maori.  Hold your nose, vote for Peeni Henare, Labour

Taranaki-King Country:

Solid National country with Barbara Kuriger.  Given her history and the lack of other candidates worth supporting, I’d just not bother.

Taupo:

A fairly safe National seat held by Louise Upston. She is socially conservative given her voting record and unfortunately has a MBA.  The other choice is Zane Cozens who is an entrepreneur standing for ACT. Like others, there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for either, but you might choose Louise Upston just to keep a distance from Labour.

Tauranga:

One time bulwark of Winston Peters, Tauranga is now a National stronghold. Sam Uffindell we all know, and he’ll win again.  You might feel strongly about NOT voting for him, so I’d choose Christine Young from ACT who has a more compelling background and story around being a self-starter. 

Te Atatu:

This safe Labour seat is held by Phil Twyford, who will win again, though heaven knows why.  The Minister for Disarmament finger wags to powers about how they should disarm, so you should send a message that Twyford should just go get a real job.  Angee Nicholas is National’s candidate and she seems far more interesting than Twyford (how hard is that though, to be fair?).  Simon Court from ACT would be a better choice, but narrowing the gap with Twyford is a worthwhile goal, so give Angee Nicholas, National your tick (and also to avoid the risk John Tamihere comes second, as the grifting political slut that he is).

Te Tai Hauauru:

Adrian Rurawhe of Labour isn’t standing again, and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer of Te Pati Maori rates her chances of taking this seat. If you don’t think the population should be split into Tangata Tiriti, Tangata Whenua and racists, then you’ll want this odious racist kept out of this seat. Soraya Peke-Mason of Labour is your best bet here. 

Te Tai Tokerau:

Kelvin Davis is safe here, but it remains a quiet mystery as to why the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party was never entrusted to be Deputy Prime Minister by the Labour Party.  As someone who accused ACT MP Karen Chhour of effectively not being Maori enough for having different political views, he deserves to be opposed. Maki Herbert of ALCP is your best bet (he came third in 2020).

Te Tai Tonga:

The Tirikatene clan will hold this whenever they stand, but you wont want to support Takuta Ferris of Te Pati Maori, or the highly questionable independent candidate.  You could vote Rebecca Robin of ALCP though.

Tukituki:

The seat that is Hastings and the rural surrounds was won by Anna Lorck of Labour in 2020, but she seems unlikely to win again which is good. Catherine Wedd is the National candidate and is a former journalist and business director. Rob Douglas of ACT is more convincingly in favour of less government. 

Upper Harbour:

Labour’s Vanushi Walters won this off National in 2020, but will likely lose it. You’ll want her out of Parliament. Cameron Brewer is the National candidate, but do you really want another communications consultant, ex. City councillor and lobbyist as your MP? Karen Chhour from ACT would be moderately preferable. Don’t be tempted by Shai Navot from TOP though.  Karen Chhour, ACT

Waiariki:

The anti-democratic, outspoken Rawiri Waititi, who thinks the reason Maori have problems is everything is racist, deserves to be ousted here.  Your only option is Labour’s Toni Boynton

Waikato:

This safe National seat held by Tim van de Molen, who is fairly centrist. You don’t have any other choices, but he’s ok, he’s socially centrist. Up to you.

Waimakariri:

On paper this was a marginal National seat in 2020, held by Matt Doocey, but he’ll be pretty safe here. Ross Campbell from ACT is not inspiring and no, you shouldn’t vote for Leighton Baker. Matt Doocey, National

Wairarapa:

Labour’s Kieran McAnulty picked this seat up convincingly in 2020, but he should be evicted from this seat given his senior role in increasing the size of this government. Mike Butterick of National is best placed to do this. 

Waitaki:

National’s Jacqui Dean held this fairly safe seat, but that moron is retiring, so National is putting Miles Anderson forward, who seems like a very standard National Party candidate. Sean Beamish of ACT talks of freedom, so on balance give him a tick.

Wellington Central:

Grant Robertson giving up Wokington Central was meant to leave it to former refugee Ibrahim Omer for Labour.  He’s a nice enough chap, but no one supporting freedom can support Labour when there is a better alternatives. This race also includes the odious Wellington City Councillor Tamatha Paul for the Greens, she’s on the far-left. She loudly advocates for Palestine, but has been silent since the recent Hamas attack. I guess she thinks her real views might cost her votes. While Wellingtonians might be better off removing Tamatha Paul from voting on Council, she ought not to get promoted for being such a coward for her likely hideous views. We don’t need more commie kids in Parliament. Scott Sheeran is hardly a great promoter of individual freedom, but he’s better than Paul and Omer, so tick Scott Sheeran, National

West-Coast Tasman:

Damien O’Connor is a moron, who at one point thought New Zealand could mediate between China and its enemies. You’ll want rid of him, but heaven help us that Maureen Pugh is National’s candidate. She’s a moron too who doesn’t “believe” in pharmaceuticals. Kelly Lilley from ACT isn’t a moron in a field with a lot of morons.  Pick Kelly Lilley, ACT

Whanganui:

Steph Lewis from Labour took this seat convincingly in 2020 and is just another former union rep. Carl Bates from National is better, but Craig Dredge from ACT is better still.  You might vote Bates to take it off Labour, but not with enthusiasm. 

Whangaparaoa:

This new seat is safe for National’s Mark Mitchell, but you’re better off picking Simon Angelo for ACT, given Mitchell is hardly going to be helpful on personal freedoms.

Whangarei:

Emily Henderson of Labour took this off National in 2020 but isn’t standing again, so Labour is putting forward Angie-Warren Clark, who is a lawyer and list MP.  Shane Reti of National is likely to win, so your best alternative bet is Jeni de Jong of the ALCP

Wigram:

Former Jim Anderton acolyte Megan Woods thoroughly deserves to be defeated here. She’s almost certainly going to win in this seat, so you’d be right to think seriously about voting for Tracy Summerfield of National.

Which party to vote for? New Zealand General Election 2023

I’ve been remiss in not offering my opinions on the political parties registered for this general election sooner, but I thought it was about time to do so.  I tend to spend a bit of time thinking about it, but basically it comes down to two sets of choices:

• Parties that will on balance take away more freedoms, tax and regulate you more, and overall increase the role of state in people’s lives, and demote the role of the individual over politically-defined collectives vs;

• Parties that will on balance increase freedoms, reduce tax and regulation, and overall reduce the role of the state in people’s lives, and increase the role of the individual over politically-defined collectives.

And:

• Parties certainly or likely to be elected to Parliament vs;

• Parties that certainly or almost certainly will not be elected to Parliament.

So below I have written an alphabetical review of each of the parties seeking to be elected under the party list, with a ranking of their likelihood to be elected to Parliament. My basis for review is whether the policies are libertarian, rational and whether the people behind it are to be trusted or ooze more turpitude than usual for politicians.

For those who can't be bothered reading so far, gere's my overall conclusion. 

Of the parties that are likely to get elected, ACT is the best of a fairly woeful bunch, and it’s primarily because of education policy and what looks like a bias towards less government. It’s far from consistent, and so much rhetoric is populist pablum, but it’s worth giving ACT its first chance to be the main supporting partner of National (which it didn’t achieve under John Key, as he could use TPM and United Future to get a majority). So, I’m reluctantly giving it a tick. Sure you could give National a tick instead, but it’s not a party that will move much towards less government and more individual choice and responsibility. It’s better than Labour, but that’s a low bar to cross. You could gamble with NZ First, but the idea Winston would pull National towards less government spending, less regulation and do anything substantial about pushing back against Maori nationalism is almost laughable.

If you don’t really care about a change in government you could vote for one of a few micro parties. Of them, the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is the most consistently libertarian because it has one policy, although it can’t organise itself to get close to being elected or indeed anything else. Of the rest, the New Conservatives might appeal to socially conservative classical liberals, but not libertarians. The other micro-parties are either blends of socialism with claims about freedom (primarily linked to the Covid vaccine, but also climate change and freedom of speech), or led by lunatics (Liz Gunn) or grifting shysters (Tamaki/Grey).

I will be hoping for a National/ACT government without NZ First, because it gives ACT its best chance to prove it can move the dial and make some substantial steps to implement reforms that are needed. 

In short:

ACT: Hold your nose and give a little less government a chance.

Animal Justice Party: Vegan fundamentalist nutters

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: Free the weed, but nothing else.

Democracy NZ: Conservative breakaway with an odd blend of anti-vax and anti-GMO, but it will fade away.

Freedoms NZ: Grifters Tamaki and Grey on their latest con.

Green: Blend of eco-authoritarians and commie post-modernists keen to sacrifice us all for the greater good, and if you don't like it why are you so full of hate and want the planet to burn and children to die?

Labour:  Union-tempered version of the above with a focus on much more gradualism.

Leighton Baker Party:  Pointless breakaway from the New Conservatives that is worse organised and is for social conservatives.

National: The anti-Labour party that primarily exists to obtain and hang onto power when Labour frightens or angers the public too much to stay in power, but only rarely and erratically reverses anything Labour does.

New Conservative: Social conservatism with some economic liberalism, yet with little to say about cutting state spending. A shadow of its former self having been decimated by the rise of multiple conservative micro-parties led by egos.

New Nation Party: Inconsistent unhinged blend of conspiracy, localism, lower taxes but more government spending. 

NewZeal:  Alfred Ngaro's conservatives for lower taxes but no plans for less spending. Why bother?

New Zealand First: Like dejavu Winston rises from obscurity to find new causes to advance, this time it's back to opposing racial separatism, transgender activism and to be tough on crime.  

New Zealand Loyal: Liz Gunn's mix of quackery and communism.

Te Pati Maori: Maori nationalist socialists

TOP: The party of clever leftwing policy wonks who aren't clever enough to work out how to get elected

Womens' Rights Party:  Feminist socialists against transgender post-modernism

The parties

ACT: Certain to get elected. Not at all a libertarian party, but the prime contender to pull a National-led government towards more freedom and less government. In its favour is a revolutionary approach to education, including decentralising roles and responsibilities, including what are in essence vouchers and charter schools for all. There is a tougher approach to welfare promoting individual responsibility, and what looks like a belief in significantly liberalising planning laws and a more rational approach to climate change policy. David Seymour’s rhetoric on reducing government waste ought to instinctively mean a reduction in spending, and a plan to lower and simplify income tax rates, although it is mild indeed compared with previous years. ACT is willing to take on the thorny issues of identity and governance around Te Tiriti, which has been ignored for too long. 

However, it is far from being all positive, the policies that are published are weak on some elements of economic liberalising. Water policy can’t suggest corporatisation, privatisation and user pays, but in fact is some bizarre blend of Muldoonism and its over-enthusiastic belief in PPPs (across far too many sectors). Sharing GST revenue with local government is also remarkably wasteful unless local government’s roles and responsibilities are pared back, otherwise the likes of Wellington City Council will just keep building or subsidising more entertainment and convention complexes. Those who rejected Covid vaccines, and the mandates and restrictions placed on people during the pandemic have fair reason to be disappointed in David Seymour’s comments during that period. Finally, it’s approach to personal freedom issues appears largely limited to legalising pseudoephedrine. It would be nice if it campaigned to reverse the absurd tobacco ban.  

There is a reason to support ACT, because no other party likely to be elected to Parliament will have MPs who, mostly, have instincts to put the state sector on a diet and to oppose Nanny State moves that National may just continue with.  However, it is entirely understandable why some might just find it too hard to swallow David Seymour’s pivoting on issues like housing intensification or vaccine mandates. For me, the number one reason to vote ACT is its education policy.  Education more than just about any other policy, is in crisis due to capture by bureaucracy and professional unions who want to take a monopolistic approach to how children should be educated. No other party can do something about this. I might be hopeful about reform of planning laws that could enable more housing, but I’m not optimistic about ACT on this. The cycle of politics in NZ is that ACT will likely peak at this election, especially if National is seen to do well by 2026, in which case this is the peak chance for ACT to effect real change. So on balance, a vote for ACT is defensible as a vote to give National a backbone on some issues.  8/10

Animal Justice Party: Certain to not get elected. Misanthropic lunatics with no chance of getting into Parliament. The party of mandatory veganism and those who want to equate domestic abuse between humans as the same applying to animals (including the emotional abuse of denying your dog its favourite toy – by the way you wouldn’t have property rights over any animal either). With policies to end animals in agriculture, it is fundamentally authoritarian post-modernist nonsense blending a benign hippie-level kindness with economic catastrophe and anti-scientific hatred of humans. The only good thing about the Animal Justice Party is it no doubt take votes away from the Greens, so go on and promote it among your more dull-witted Green supporters. 1/10

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: Certain to not get elected. The ALCP is just about legalising cannabis, so you could argue having one libertarian policy (and not wanting to increase the state’s role in anything else) means it is the purest libertarian party. You can’t be said to have “sold out” for voting for the ALCP, and for some legalising cannabis means more than anything.  A vote for the ALCP is making a statement about an issue most parties have chosen to ignore since the ill drafted referendum. However, it is just that one issue, and ALCP have little chance of getting in Parliament. Voting for ALCP indicates you rather don’t care about education, taxes, housing, environmental, economic or other policies.  These things matter so 6/10

DemocracyNZ: Certain to not get elected. Matt King’s breakaway party is a breakaway rural oriented conservative party. It prefers climate change adaptation to mitigation and looks to do little about reducing agricultural emissions beyond supporting scientific approaches towards doing so. It does seem to have a preference towards less regulation generally. It is in favour of more education choice and devolving some power. Otherwise, it is primarily about vaccine mandates, and parallels ACT and NZF on race issues. However, it does have an unscientific attitude to GMOs. The latter is irrational and odd. Still, it is likely to be relatively benign, except of course there is no plausible path to Parliament or even influencing it. It gets a 4/10.

Freedoms NZ: Certain to not get elected. Grifting megalomaniac Brian Tamaki and fellow grifter Sue Grey uses the word freedom, but freedoms are selective indeed.  Radical on lower taxes (but next to nothing on how to cut government spending), the big pushes are on compensating the vaccine injured. It claims to want to reject Nanny State but has very general statements about “better health and education. There is the touch of the conspiratorial here too, and it wholly rejects climate change and wants to significantly deregulate almost all regulation affecting the rural sector. Prosperity theology is grand-scale grift against the vulnerable and needy, and from a values point of view, someone who promotes this doctrine is not someone who believes in smaller government. Sue Grey in a different manner is a grifter of pseudoscientific nonsense, such as fear over 5G, and although I have respect for those who choose not to take the Covid vaccine, to talk of it being distributed as “genocide” says a lot about who is she and what she is about. This isn’t a party of freedom, it is a party led by confidence-tricksters who target the vulnerable.  It gets a 1/10.

Green: Certain to get elected. New Zealand’s party of socialism is the anti-thesis of more freedom, capitalism, belief in the human individual and less government. The Greens want more government, more tax (now targeting not just when you earn or spend money, but also just owning property), more regulation, more government departments, and with the exception of a less punitive approach to drugs (except alcohol), there is almost nothing for anyone who believe in freedom with the Greens.  The Greens are also in the frontline of promoting post-modernist concepts of identity defining people as privileged or victims based on immutable characteristics, and of course have little interest in private property rights. Note the Greens want Treaty settlements to include private land, wanting the state to decide that your home has to be bought by the state when you decide to sell.  This is also the party that is uninterested in helping Ukraine fight Russia, but happily puts front and centre candidates that chant slogans about wiping Israel off the map. The Greens after all carry the foreign affairs stance of self-styled “anti-imperialists” who don’t care about wars waged by anyone anti-Western including terrorists. Moreover, the Greens are at the forefront of wanting legislation on “hate speech” and are keen to define that based on who is speaking not just what they say.  A vote for the Greens is a vote to pass more power over your life, property and the community to the state.  It gets a 1/10

Labour: Certain to get elected. Green lite, full of people who wish they could go more socialist, go more identitarian, go more government, more taxes, more regulation, more bureaucracy, but know it wont win them power to do too much.  I mean why would you bother? It gets a 2/10. 

Leighton Baker Party: Certain to not get elected. If you’re going to have a personality led party, it needs to be a personality that enough people like and know. In Australia, Pauline Hanson and Bob Katter have done it, with constituencies big enough to justify it. For a start, it has three party list candidates. If it crossed the 5% threshold, it wouldn’t have enough candidates.  It’s a fairly standard conservative platform, with a few good points, like wanting charter schools, one law for all, enshrining freedom of speech and to ignore climate change mitigation. Yet it also wants direct democracy for decisions like tunnels? Baker is a conservative in the bedroom, and if you can’t rustle up six candidates on the tiny chance you get 5%, then why bother? It gets 3/10.

National: Certain to get elected. The party of free enterprise and individual freedom is generally very poor at advancing policies that reverse the statist policies of a Labour Government, let alone shrinking the role of the state even incrementally, when in power. At this election National’s big pushes are around minor tax cuts, some spending cuts, but a lot of new spending. It’s difficult to see its education policy breaking the bureaucratic/professional union monopoly on delivery and avoiding performance measurement, and likewise for its policy on planning to gut the post-RMA regulation of land use that hinders housing, supermarkets and other development. There does appear to be willingness to turn back race-based bureaucratic and funding measures, towards need, and to place more personal responsibility alongside welfare, as well as repealing the productivity-sapping “Fair Pay” measures. It would be generous to think National would turn the clock back to the spending and regulatory environment of 2017, let alone 1999. Yes voting National stops Labour getting in power, but it primarily stops the march to the left rather than reverses it much at all. You could do worse, but a libertarian would want a lot better.  6/10.

New Conservative: Certain to not get elected. The New Conservatives have clearly been gutted by the plethora of micro-conservative parties. There’s not really a lot here in economic freedom, some useful principles around property rights, but a bigger focus on family.  Although I’m more conservative on abortion than many, granting personhood to fertilised cells is not compatible with individual freedom.  There is a space for this party to represent socially conservative economic liberals, but there isn’t a lot that shows them to be economic liberals, especially a big pledge of lower taxes with nothing substantial on cutting spending. 5/10.

New Nation Party: Certain to not get elected. Starting with anti-privatisation rhetoric, there is an interesting range of positions. It wants a written constitution to protect freedoms, which is fine. Leaving the UN is conspiratorial nonsense (you don’t need to leave the UN to ignore what you don’t like).  It wants a $25,000 income tax free threshold, and no tax on benefits, superannuation or student allowances, but again no policies to cut spending except a generic “reduce powers of central government”. Sure, reinstating oil and gas exploration is fine, but more “provincial” powers is not compatible with more freedom. Then it wants to investigate decriminalising cannabis. It’s quite a mix of opposing He Puapua, more health spending, more funding for tertiary students and effectively defunding RNZ and the media generally.  I’m generous giving it 3/10

NewZeal: Certain to not get elected. Alfred Ngaro’s personal project. Another conservative party, but with a few weird policies like enabling housing deposits of only 2.5% for first home buyers. There is little interest in lower taxes and shrinking government, so the real question is why would you bother? 3/10

New Zealand First: On balance likely to get elected. Yes we do all know Winston, the indefatigable face of next generation Muldoonism. Winston put National in power once, Labour twice. He pivots between economic nationalism, anti-immigration and toughness on crime, and this time is opposing Maori nationalism and separatism in the way only Winston can. He is also waging war on “wokeness” which he discovered a few months ago, just under six years after he chose to govern with the blatantly woke Jacinda Ardern and the woke-ultras of the Green Party. The problem is this, I can believe Winston didn’t know He Puapua was being developed when he was a Cabinet Minister because he is fundamentally lazy.  He spends two years out of Parliament barely saying boo, and when he IS a Minister he’s happy travelling and having his name linked to a handful of policies. If you think Winston is going to change policies, then I have a bridge to sell you.  Winston is a populist opportunist who has three times in 27 years been given senior Cabinet positions (and his floxham and jetsam of followers) and there is no evidence it has made any substantial difference to economic or personal freedom.  Yes he might get in, but he is likely to slow down reforms than accelerate them, so 3/10.

New Zealand Loyal: Certain to not get elected. Liz Gunn’s unhinged party that is also incapable of getting enough candidates to be represented adequately if it reached 5%. It’s easily the most conspiratorial party of all, not only is it anti globalism, but it is hysterically environmentalist. It is keen on quack remedies and a financial transactions tax. Anyone talking about Covid response as a “mini-Holocaust” is not just hysterical but vile. It wants to nationalise all communications and energy, so this is no party of individual freedom, but a party of a deranged mix of authoritarian mysticism and hysteria. It’s frankly very sad.  0/10

Te Pati Maori: Almost certain to get elected. TPM has morphed in the past few years into Hone Harawira’s Mana Party, led in the background by a grifter only surpassed by Winston Peters, John Tamihere. The “genetically superior” Rawiri Waititi and the “Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti or the racists” classifying Debbie Ngarewa-Packer have made the party into a radical Marxist nationalist party. On the bright side, there are elements of its belief in self-determination that would be compatible with a small state, it is also the only party that would decriminalise drug use and possession, but on the other side is a strong belief that NZers need to judged based on their classification. You’re either people of the land (Maori), people that are allowed to remain because of Te Tiriti (forget if you are born here and have no other citizenship), and everyone else who is “dying off” and doesn’t matter. TPM wants more tax, wants private land subject to Te Tiriti claims and Mana Whenua would have first right to buy private land up for sale. This is also the party that thinks all countries should be friends with Aotearoa, including the one attacking Ukraine and including the ones that operate literal Orwellian police states (e.g., DPRK and Eritrea). Neither Marxism nor nationalist identitarianism is good for individual freedom, nor can you expect tired old “anti-imperialist” apathy towards leftwing imperialism. TPM offers little for freedom lovers, but a lot for people who think Zimbabwe offers lessons to follow. 1/10

TOP – The Opportunities Party: Almost certain to not get elected.  TOP’s priorities are a greater welfare state (putting everyone on welfare), a broader tax base, more taxpayer funded healthcare and public transport, and the reinstatement of the Southerner train from Christchurch to Invercargill.  A party of clever people who think they know what’s best. The highlight is wanting to treat cannabis like alcohol, but you could vote for the ALCP and not have the universal basic income policy for people who don’t want to work. It has no interest in liberalising education and of course like the other leftwing parties, wants schoolchildren to be able to vote. It’s main value to freedom lovers is in denying Labour 1 or 2 seats, so go on get your leftie friends to vote TOP.  3/10

Women’s Rights Party: Certain to not get elected. Feminism that is now driven by being gender-critical around trans-genderism. There’s a place for that debate, and the Greens and Labour don't seem to want it, but everything else is just another socialist party for more welfare and more regulation. 2/10. 

Footnote:  I'll be interested to see how leaders of all of the parties respond to the war against Israel from the Islamofascist Hamas. Labour has already disgraced itself and National has shown backbone.

New Zealand election 2023 - The case against Labour

So it’s that time when you get a chance to have a tiny say in what group of politicians pass laws on what you can do, and how to spend a portion of your money, or what to do with your property. They gain the power of legitimised violence over people’s bodies and their property, and they do it because the majority of voters let them do it.  They'll say they'll buy you healthcare, buy you education for your children, buy you a retirement income, and buy you some roads, policing and of course, keep you "safe".  They'll also all claim that they - people who produce nothing, and who have power - "create jobs" and "steer the economy", when of course they do this by interfering in it.  They produce money out of thin air, and then proclaim that they will "solve" inflation.  They take money when you work, when you invest and when you spend, then tell you they are "helping" you when they give some back to you (or more often than not, give some to a smaller group whose votes they are keen to get).

In a liberal democracy we live in relative freedom in that there are plenty of people living in countries with either totalitarian or authoritarian regimes that have an all-pervasive interest in what their subjects do, and also many who live in countries where government is incapable of protecting people from each other.  The latter are only free in the sense that you have to organise your own security and hope that the infrastructure that politicians provide doesn't collapse and kill you (see Libya).  

New Zealanders are fortunate to live in a developed liberal democracy, with rule of law, a lot of property rights and a relatively high degree of social and community cohesion, although the latter very much depends on where you live, and who you live with. It has that because of capitalism, private property rights, rule of law and a relatively high degree of freedom to interact, trade and employ people.  

For advocates of freedom and capitalism, the main advantage of a general election is that it is a chance to evict incumbents from power, to remove their power. The main disadvantage is that this is mainly done by giving your endorsement to another lot, the key for any libertarian is whether the other lot will, on balance, do less to interfere with your individual rights, tax you less, enable you to have more power to choose your healthcare, your kids’ education and hopefully protect you from criminals. 

Fortunately this election comes as a chance to evict the most leftwing Labour Government in decades, much moreso than the Clark Government and even the Kirk Government. 

It's hardly surprising that I want rid of a Labour Government, because it simply doesn't reflect my values. I don't want a government that believes in constant growth of the state, including the welfare state, to make more and more people dependent on other taxpayers.  I don't want a government that thinks that its role is primarily to take the wealth generated by others to give to other people or businesses.

However, this Labour Government in particular deserves to be defeated.  While I could go on about the government that fueled inflation by loose monetary policy and even looser fiscal policy, or the constant accretion of costs to business whether it be a new public holiday or extra annual leave or increasing the minimum wage far beyond inflation.  I could go about the mediocre outcomes in education, which has become increasingly centralised in a Wellington bureaucracy that not only micro-manages the curriculum, but strangles the supply of teachers by demanding they have many years of training, and be ideologically aligned to Labour's view of the role of the Treaty of Waitangi. There is no shortage of failure, but there is a strong pattern seen across almost all of the policies of the Labour Party:

• Obsession with centralising power and control: It's seen in the creation of single national entities for technical education and for health delivery. This not only concentrates power, but it also stifles innovation and creativity, it provides no basis to compare performance, except by measures that the single entities set up for themselves.  Diversity in education is not encouraged, and diversity in the skills and talents of teachers (let alone their belief systems) is also discouraged.  All of this makes it easier to control, but also easier for rent-seeking professional associations (glorified unions) to control supply of professionals, and to demand pay increases and a lack of accountability for performance of any government.

• Distrust of individuals and individual freedom and property rights:  Whether it be the spending of other people's money, it's continued lack of belief in using private property rights as a basis for laws on planning or its concern with regulating speech (whether it be "hate speech" or "misinformation") or its creeping ban on tobacco, it inherently treats individuals as needing guidance, as not being particularly fit to make their own choices.  It did seek to prohibit speech that ridiculed religion by default, before backing down. Now it funds a whole academic project against misinformation, which has enormous blind spots when it comes to anti-science and anti-reason claims popular on the left, such as on nuclear power, or genetically modified organisms, or even on whether NZ not taking action on climate change threatens humanity.  It certainly doesn't care about politicians lying about what they have done, or lying about each other in an election campaign.

The culture around speech, expounded by Labour, and much of the media and academia, is one of hysterical name-calling and cancellation of those who are less able to articulate what they don’t like and what they oppose.  Anyone who opposes a structuralist/post-modernist view on Maori issues is “racist’, anyone who questions gender self-assignment and puberty blockers is “transphobic” and anyone who questions cycleways or lower speed limits want “children to die” or wants “cyclists under attack”.  Furthermore, the taxpayer funded Disinformation Project had quite the blind spot for those spreading nonsense about nuclear energy, GMOs and other leftwing “cause celebres”.  It’s hardly surprising from an organisation that is committed to “the realisation of Tiriti justice” or the sinister UNESCO definition of freedom of speech meaning the “free flow of ideas by word and image that contributes to peace, sustainability, poverty eradication and human rights”. Heaven help us all for the vast panoply of human expression that doesn’t do that!  It’s also throughout academia, how else to explain the ranting invective of Professor Mohan Dutta towards former newspaper editor Karl Du Fresne. 

• Support for post-modernist identitarianism and the dishonesty about its support:  One of the most toxic philosophical trends, emanating primarily from the United States, is the embrace of post-modernist structuralist theories about power, privilege, advantage and groups. Central to that is a view that the "world" is designed and run (which assumes highly centralised command and control) for the most successful identities of people, and this is done by them systematically oppressing the least successful.  In the NZ context it basically means that wealthy able-bodied European heterosexual men (not trans-men of course) have designed the economy, social systems, laws and society to suit their success, and that the systems they designed cannot possibly suit the needs of those who are poor, disabled, from other races, other sexualities and other sexes (and genders).  The "evidence" for this is seen in unequal outcomes for various groups, particularly Maori and Pasifika, particularly women.  Whether it be crime, poor health and educational outcomes, employment or the like, it is primarily because the systems that exist are designed at worst to oppress, at best to ignore the needs of others.

This philosophy is absolutely promoted throughout much of academia, but also significant parts of the bureaucracy. Instances of racism when identified are only seen as symptoms of systematic oppression, and in the NZ context it is "colonisation" that caused it.  Statistics showing people of some other backgrounds (e.g. Asian) doing well in some contexts are blanked out, because the narrative is one of oppressed vs. the oppressor.  The Greens and Te Pati Maori are explicit about this, as it was blurted out by Marama Davidson saying all of the violence in the world is due to "cis white men". It's nonsense of course, but it's the world view of people who pigeon hole everyone into groups.  It is a more sophisticated version of Maoism, which simply deemed those who were wealthy or related to those with wealth as being the enemy, who exploited the proletariat, and so had to be demoted, purged and punished.  

The elements of truth behind all of this is that the state does have people who are bigoted by multiple identity categories, and the state's health and education systems let a lot of people down.  It lets down people of poorer and less-educated backgrounds more than others, because if you are wealthier, you have options to go elsewhere and more confidence to complain and get better service. So there are absolute merits in enabling more choice, more variety and more tailoring of services to meet individual needs, but Labour (and its allies) think it is more. See the report commissioned by the Human Rights Commission called Maranga Mai! which claims:

 "New Zealanders need to understand that colonisation, racism and white supremacy are intertwined phenomena that remain central to the ongoing displacement and erosion of tino rangatiratanga"... and "To eliminate racism throughout Aotearoa will require nothing less than constitutional transformation and we urge the government to commit to this much needed change".

Labour is happily funding government entities promoting a narrative of radical constitutional reform and that anyone getting in the way of it will be subject to direct action against the "settler-colonial status quo".

However, it is also supporting law and tax setting powers being shared with unelected politicians.  Labour supported local government having appointed politicians, in the example of Environment Canterbury which has unelected Mana Whenua representation. This is an entity that passes bylaws, that regulates private property and taxes property owners, which Labour has decided should include members that no one can vote out of office.  This reflects a belief in constitutional reform that sees Maori not as individual citizens with freedoms and powers to vote, be consulted with and to advise their representatives on what they think, but to treat Iwi as a bloc of power that elected politicians share power and decision-making with.  None of this was part of the Labour manifesto, and the ease by which so many of its politicians regard criticism of this as "racism" is contemptuous of the general public.

• Focus on image and virtue signalling over outcomes:  Policy on climate change is primarily, although not exclusively about image.  When Jacinda Ardern said climate change was New Zealand's new "nuclear-free" moment she was right of course, as the nuclear-free policy was at best, virtue signalling, and at worst a policy conceived by the hard-left to isolate New Zealand from its traditional allies. New Zealand's nuclear free policy did nothing to cut nuclear weapons or the threat of nuclear war, and does nothing now to reduce the risk of nuclear war in Asia or Europe. Ironically, climate change policy for New Zealand is about virtue signalling.  An honest government knows that whatever emissions reductions New Zealand undertakes will make zero difference to climate change, but that the main rational reason New Zealand undertakes to cut emissions is to avoid trade sanctions from some bigger economies.  However, Labour has treated it as an opportunity to "show off" by adding costs to the economy, and by going faster and further than others. 

There's plenty else, such as the pull peddling that Labour embraced during the pandemic, whereby a DJ, or sports stars, or thespians and jesters, could all get MIQ “slots” because they were approved important people, whereby ordinary New Zealanders wanting to go to funerals or worse yet, visit terminally ill relatives and friends, would find access to their own country subject to a lottery. It was the fact that wealthy and famous people could visit New Zealand because it tickled the fancy of Cabinet Ministers, over letting the dirty prols come home. Then it split the country into those who took vaccines, who would be allowed to largely live a normal life, and those who refused, who were ostracised, in part because of the false claim that being vaccinated significantly hindered the spread of the virus.  

But overall it is a government that thinks it knows best, not just in spending your own money, but in centralising control over key public services.  In education, as Damien Grant amply put, it heavily constrains supply of teachers requiring them to have six years of training, and then to be vetted by the Teaching Council according to their ideological beliefs. This isn’t just to suit the teachers’ unions, who like any monopolists are obsessed with containing competition, but also the philosophy that education should be supplied according to one view of pedagogy and moreover one view of philosophy. It used to be up to schools to decide if teachers were competent, because unlike medicine or engineering, it is not a complex technical skill.  Many people have the skills to teach and explain concepts, in fact good parents do it every day, many also have the skills to be social workers and mentors. However, Labour thinks unless its bureaucrats and in effect, its monopolist professional unions don’t have a stranglehold on curriculum and supply of teaching, children are at risk. Labour doesn’t trust parents, doesn’t trust individuals to set up schools and hire teachers based on merit and their assessment of performance.

This is also the government that talked of wellbeing and kindness, and demonstrated it by handing out free money, by increasing welfare benefits, and handing out corporate welfare in multiple forms. However, it is also a government that took an approach to law and order that while laudable on one level (interest in rehabilitating those who committed low level crimes), was driven by not believing that the number one job of the justice system is to protect the public from people who want to be aggressive towards them. Prisons protect people from those who want to do violence against them.

Most of all though, I am fed up with this meddling government. I don’t want Chris Hipkins to be “In It For You”, I want him to leave me alone, I want him and his group of mediocre minor achievers to get out of the way. To let more skilled and talented medical, educational, engineering and construction professionals into the country, not tied up by the monopolistic practices of gateway unions and associations, or the petty authoritarianism of immigration officials. I don’t want the Reserve Bank to be as concerned about climate change and Te Tiriti as it is about inflation. I don’t want a government or public servants that celebrate growth of public sector employees from 320 to 1200 as an "achievement".  I want Labour out.

and of course almost all of these criticism go for the Greens and Te Pati Maori as well.