Treasury to review Transmission Gully vs. the coastal highway costs

The Dominion Post reports that Treasury will undertaken an independent study into the relative costs of the two routes. This is unprecedented open interference into the affairs of Transit and Greater Wellington Regional Council – but it is about spending Crown money. I don’t doubt Treasury will have a good go at this.

Hopefully that should sort it out – since the proponents of the Gully think Transit would rather not build a big 27km motorway instead of a handful of smaller projects (unlikely) and that the Greater Wellington Regional Council – which previously strongly supported the Gully route – is biased against it!

Poor Treasury. If it comes out in favour of the Gully, it will be in favour of a half built option that needs to be completed at some point to be really worthwhile. If it supports the coastal route, it will get the mountains of abuse from the pro-Gully lobbyists – including Porirua City which keeps coming out with some nutty ideas.

However, Treasury can hardly be seen as having a vested interest, and is not as hated as Transit is on this issue – yet!

Have the Gully proponents noticed that the congestion at Paremata is gone?

Hey Jim - Matt's gone!

Jim Anderton’s personal – I mean Progressive – Party website still lists Matt Robson as an MP.

Given, like most small parties, the Jim Anderton party lost votes and is down to one seat, Jim needs to wake up - it's just you Jim - ask Peter Dunne what it felt like.

However, NZ First's link on its website to the confidence and supply agreement with Labour wasn't working when I checked it either. To its credit, United Future has its whole agreement posted.

Fundamentalist religion – the ugliest cancer on the planet?

I hate religion, I really do – people can get whatever comfort or whatever they want from whatever ghosts they believe in, build churches and change their lives for their ghosts, and even try to convince people to believe in their ghosts, but that is where it should end. Believe in whatever you want, but don't infringe on the rights of others justifying it through your faith.

I am sick of hearing how humane and loving Islam is – frankly about as sick as I am hearing about how Christianity is the same. Those who say this confuse the religion with those claiming to follow it. Now I couldn’t give a flying fuck about whether the true Islam is Osama Bin Laden’s or not, much like whether Christiantiy is led by the bigoted Pope, Queen Elizabeth the 2nd, Brian Tamaki or Benny Hinn (now THAT’s an evil little fucker!) – but I do care about the evil pricks who use religion to justify slavery, torture and rape.

The Daily Telegraph today in this story that a village council in Pakistan has decreed that five women ranging from 15 to 22 should be abducted, raped or killed because they refused to honour marriages forced on them when they were.. wait for it … aged 6 through 13. To their credit, the girls’ fathers are supporting them, and as a result have the death penalty imposed upon them.

See it all started when a father of one of the girls shot dead a member of another family, following some dispute where there were shots from both sides. The village council said appropriate compensation for the family was to make the girls of the family (both the man who killed the other, and his brother) marry male members of the other family – in other words, children were chattels to be given over. Of course it was a mullah in the village council who imposed this sentence.

Evil barbaric scum. The same scum who supported the Taliban banning girls from school - treating women as illiterate little slaves.

The Pakistani government recently prohibited this practice, but its fair and unbiased police seem to be doing little to enforce this law.

Oh, but all cultures are the same, don’t judge other cultures say the postmodernist cultural relativist vermin.

Duncan Bayne gives a good summary of why he regards all religion as fundamentally irrational here.

On top of this, The Times in London reports how a film in the Netherlands made by a Somali refugee (and now Dutch MP) about Muslim oppression of homosexuals carries no credits, to avoid murderous Islamic nutters making those who helped produce the film into targets for their peaceful religion. The report shows how some Muslims, who chose to move to the Netherlands, a highly liberal country, are basically out to shut down criticism and dissent. The semi-libertarian gay MP Pym Fortyn was shot by an ecoterrorist – a Green nutter who did it for the Muslims and hated Fortyn railing against environmentalists forcing railway lines to be built under cow pasture, because they hated any disruption to nature.

The true murderous life hating philosophy of these lowlives is obvious – they have no place in a liberal tolerant society which would allow their views to be expressed, but would not allow their violence to be.

Islam, at the very least, needs to go through a period called the Enlightenment. It happened to Christianity, and the worst excesses were buffed off, mainly by separating church and state – then it needs to go through a steady level of secular decline, as it has in western Europe.

Religion does nothing for me, at best it is historically quaint and gives some people quiet comfort and support – but I would rather it fade away.

That means all of the evangelical nutters as well - the proponents of "intelligent design" (such rot!) and the life hating, sex hating, freedom hating mullahs of Christianity. They would turn the world into a fundamentalist state little different in effect from the Taliban.

May they all rot.

Mark Blumsky's maiden speech

Mark Blumsky, former extravagant Mayor of Wellington and new Wellington National list MP has made his maiden speech, and besides some good stuff about less government and tax, he made 3 statements that show he can’t keep his hands off of things:

1. “We need to see progress on Transmission Gully. We need to see it now; it is necessary” I need say little more on this as I have blogged extensively about. Mark, lower tax and building a billion dollar road with a negative benefit/cost ratio don’t add up. Stop trying to waste our money.

2. “Out at the airport, it is vital that the new generation Boeing 787 jets are able to land in Wellington” Why Mark? What do you know about aviation? I believe they can land, but there is no indication Air NZ wants them to, because there is not enough demand for long haul flights from Wellington beyond Australia and the Pacific. Wellington-Singapore isn't going to happen, when they don't do Christchurch-Singapore anymore. Besides the 787s don't come for 5 more years. Shannon in Ireland played this cargo cult mentality – built a big airport and nobody came. Leave business to business Mark, you know shoes, you don’t know transport.

3. “We need to look seriously at some level of local government amalgamation.” As a libertarian you might think I believe in less local government, and I do. However, Owen McShane some time ago wrote that the optimum size of local authorities was not necessarily bigger. Yes some councils are too small – Banks Peninsula clearly is and is merging with Christchurch. Excessively small councils find it hard to attract talented staff and face high overheads due to poor economies of scale. However there is a more insidious face in big councils – big councils can waste money more easily because a tiny rates increase means a decent windfall in revenue – so big councils think they can undertake any lunatic scheme individual councillors dream up, because the cost of each scheme is relatively low. So you get art, business subsidies, video libraries, youth cafes and all sorts of utter nonsense that councils shouldn’t be doing – Mark should know, he led a council that embarked on continuous increases in local government spending.

The answer to local government is NOT to amalgamate, although if councils want to, it shouldn’t be stopped – but to eliminate unnecessary functions, which ultimately are all of them. Councils should be forced to get out of all activities that they can charge users for, and get out of social activities like housing and community centres. If you like something council does, pay for it yourself! Big councils want to do more, they want to interfere and tax more - bigger councils are not better!

Mark doesn't really believe in the free market, he believes in being popular - and frankly has not been impressive as much beyond a businessman and a cheerleader for Wellington.

Mark, do you want councils doing less, rating less and if so, what would YOU cut, or is the National policy on local government to do nothing?

Welcome New Zeal

Trevor Loudon has researched the left extensively, and has a new blog here. While I don’t get too heated up about Keith Locke’s indiscrepancies from the past – after all he deserves credit for defending Ahmed Zaoui in my book, and his support for the Khmer Rouge was thirty years ago – it is important to note these, and after all any National MP who once warmed to the Ian Smith regime of Rhodesia would get a LOT of shit from the left. Trevor’s outing of the idiot Rodolfo Stavenhagen who thinks he can judge New Zealand race relations for the UN (and of course National Radio cowtows to anyone from the UN, because the UN MUST be good) is well worth a read.

Welcome Trevor, as others have said, you will be a great contributor to the blogosphere.

School of depravity!!

Ferguson Intermediate School in Upper Hutt is facing a new depravity, that is completely inappropriate for 10-12 year olds. It appears it is a same sex activity between girls that is causing grave concern among staff, something even Queen Victoria would not believe existed. No, not drugs, no they are not pulling knives on each others, not beating each other up, not even masturbating each other, they are…. hugging. Yes I kid you not, it is reported here that the school is taking action - with an image of the brazen hussies performing such a lewd and lascivious act.

You know what comes of inappropriate hugging – just like washing nude, it encourages other behaviour – some of the girls might become not just friends, but CLOSE friends. They might enjoy the warmth, comfort and affection of another – the hugging isn’t forced, thank Clark, and it isn’t from teachers, after all teachers who want to give children any physical contact must be perverted!

Hopefully they will create cubicles for all pupils to change in when they do PE, and that ankles will be covered soon, and of course there is no holding hands, you know how intimate THAT is.

We ought to ban images and videos of them hugging too, I bet they see older teenagers and adults doing it – that’s where it all went wrong.

If not stamped out, hugging will lead to kissing, which will lead to French kissing and then touching legs and arms and bellies, and you know what comes from that AIDS and pregnancy! After all, girls should be told to save themselves for their husbands and wear burkhas so that they don’t get any bright ideas, and so boys and, eventually, men don’t. Thank Blair I’m in the UK where the main problem is that 70% of schoolkids report having been bullied – as least they are not behaving like perverts with each other!

Sprawl, transport and choice

PC has a wonderful series on why sprawl is good and the abolition of town planning even better. Most of the links are on his latest post on the topic, here.

The crux of so much of this is that planners get concerned about traffic congestion (which is a result of roads not being managed or charged like private property), insufficient use of public transport, energy use in homes and the disorder of capitalist societies. Most of this is out and out nanny statism.

To those who espouse this, they look at figures for energy use, public transport use and for them the less energy and more public transport the better- in short, Pyongyang in North Korea is the ideal city.

Frankly, who cares if people use more or less energy in their homes, or whose homes are energy efficient or otherwise? It doesn’t matter any more than whether those people buy a new pair of shoes every week or every year, or have a huge collection of CDs. The key is- as long as they PAY for it, a person should be able to consume whatever they wish. Pay meaning, the cost to purchase it and dispose of it, and that means no subsidies for production or distribution and no subsidies for rubbish collection or disposal or recycling. Remember how in so many countries energy and rubbish are run by central or local government, and are directly or indirectly subsidised.

Also who cares if public transport is well used or not, as long as those using it pay for it. Much public transport in the world is not subsidised – think of long distances buses and trains in New Zealand, and most airlines.

Planners are busybodies, they want to nanny us all, because we don’t know what is good for us. They want to protect us from using cars unnecessarily, from wasting energy and eating the wrong foods. They are do-gooders, and many have their hearts in the right place, but they need to be told to “fuck off, leave me alone, it’s my life and my money and I will do what I want with it”. Many of their messages are not bad in themselves – I don’t want to waste power or petrol, but sometimes I want a hot wash in my washing machine, sometimes I want to drive with the accelerator to the floor, sometimes I want to eat fast food. Sue Kedgley is the ultimate nanny – a hypocritical bitch who gets driven around, while calling on people to use public transport. John Prescott was the UK Transport Secretary, and did the same.

I want to live in a house, in the suburbs, with as many rooms as I can afford, as big a car as I can afford, and travel whenever I want in the class I can afford, and buy whatever I want – and live my life the way I want to. I don’t want anyone else’s money to do it. You can suggest ways I could do things better, but if you dare tell me where I should live, in what sort of house, how I must go to work or tax or subsidise things I don’t want to do because you don’t like my choices, then fuck off!

Jewish Council is wrong

Now I understand why the Jewish Council is calling for a banning of the sale of Nazi memorabilia.

There are a handful of freaks out there who get off draping their bedrooms with swastikas and feeling proud that they can follow someone who tells them what to do and how to run their lives and everyone elses. Fortunately almost all of the those with these views are almost completely incompetent – remember there was a National Front in New Zealand that couldn’t register as a political party and the British equivalents, the National Front and BNP are almost entirely a rabble of semi-insane losers who can barely organise themselves. A club of mostly useless men (and their vile female companions).

David Harcourt, a Wellington antiques dealer is rightfully defending his right to sell Nazi material. Banning it would of course raise the price for such stuff, and the claim that making money from it glorifies it is nonsense – the same claim can be made for selling t-shirts with Che Guevara on it, or Castro, or the mountains of communist era junk that gets sold in eastern European markets. I bought a few bits and pieces in Bratislava when I was there a year ago, out of curiosity and because, one day, I want to show my children and grandchildren the sort of crap that evil regimes gave to people – to show appreciation, while they oppressed them and denied their individuality.

I shouldn’t have to even state the obvious, the Holocaust was an absolute abomination, particularly as it was so carefully calculated, ordered and ran in what had been considered a civilised, modern Western society. Nazi Germany was one of the most evil regimes to have existed in modern times – but so was the Soviet Union, Ceaucescu’s Romania, Pol Pot’s Cambodia, Mao’s China, Saddam’s Iraq, Hoxha’s Albania, Mengistu’s Ethiopia, Bokassa’s CAR, Amin’s Uganda. Banning anything from any of the above is no better than what those regime’s did – they banned what they didn’t like. The USA does not ban Nazis, in fact they are easy to find, but there are very very few of them, and there is no chance whatsoever that they will gain the means to do evil.

The Jewish Council’s sensitivity towards anything from the Nazi era is understandable – but the answer is not to ban it, but to ignore it. We are not ever served by banning that we find most offensive, but by exposing it for what it is. Banning it and focusing on the misfits who get excited by swastikas gives those misfits, and Nazism more excitement, attention and allure to the few who may also find some thrill in the forbidden. That is the least thing the Jewish Council should be encouraging.

What the Police want - more speeding tickets

David Farrar has already demonstrated that the Police are back on about speeding again. The Police briefing for incoming minister has asked for them to get a lot more money and people, surprise surprise. This is something the public tend to LIKE, but is also fraught with danger.

Now, as everyone says, the Police have a hard job, but politicians have a harder job making them accountable. The Police are not easy for accountability, partially because:

1. Most people love them, they perform duties few of us would want to do ourselves, and they are essential to a peaceful and free society – and they know it and they know how to pull on public heartstrings. Much of the time they do their job very well;

2. It is a highly unionised profession, meaning they stick together to protect each other. This is a mentality that suits the job they do, but means when anyone is out of line, there is some willingness to cover each other’s trails. This is not a place to be too independently minded.

3. Management of the Police is in house. In other words, military like, every level of the Police hierarchy is managed by cops – not managers. Companies run by the core staff are often far from successful – airlines used to be run by airline people until it was realised that professional managers were needed – people who are not sentimentally attached to parts of the operation and who can ask the hard questions. Hospitals are the same by the way, they shouldn’t be run by GPs.

4. There is no competition or threat of competition.

Having said that the NZ Police are light years ahead of many of their overseas counterparts, although in some cases that hasn’t been hard.

The main risks that the Police present are:

1. Poor performance: Not responding to what the public – taxpayers- demand of them. This is responding to incidents that threaten themselves, their families or their property. This does not mean sending for a taxi for a distressed woman or not responding to 111 calls. The flak over this is a systematic lack of performance incentives – and the union and organisation will say this is too hard.

2. Lack of budget control: What the Police want, the Police get. The INCIS project is the classic example, no proper management and money just going down the plughole to IBM for a system that ultimately was not delivered. Anytime a politician considers making the Police more efficient, the Police stick together and say “that means removing a community constable from Manurewa” or whatever. The Police always say budget cuts affect the frontline, so the administrative overheads continue to blowout.

3. Police threat to individual liberty: As the frontline of the monopoly of legitimised state violence, the Police have powers to initiate force against New Zealanders. They should, of course, do this very sparingly, with priority on cases when there are victims or potential victims – and not at all in other cases. The Police always claim they enforce the law, but for many many years they have done this selectively. They are tough on drugs, but I don’t see them following around teenage girls to check if their boyfriends are 16 and over and breaking the Crimes Act with them. They ceased routinely enforcing the law against homosexual acts a few years before it was repealed. The Police can change their law enforcement emphasis – but all in all, they always advocate more power and discretion. If the Police had their way we would all have ID cards, electronic tracking devices attached to us at all times that they could check up on, and CCTV cameras on every street corner. The Police would also change the burden of proof so you are guilty till proven innocent. Don’t have any doubts about it, the term Police state isn’t something many of them think is a bad thing, and if you spent half your day dealing with lowlifes, you might have some sympathy for that.

So what have the cops asked for?

A need to increase frontline response and investigator numbers.

Attrition is 350-400 a year, so the Police propose double that recruitment rate per annum. Of course the actual numbers needed are not suggested, so that the numbers could presumably grow ad infinitum, along with the budget. Of course, they could stop enforcing victimless crimes, though Libertarianz is not in government.

A need to reduce staff safety risks, bolster field supervision and improve investigation file quality for Court with more sworn positions at Sergeant and Senior Sergeant level.

These are several different things, but this means more money to promote experienced cops.

Considering next steps in areas of road policing enforcement alongside education and engineering options

Here the cops take the easy out – lowering speed limits, blood alcohol limits and more use of speed enforcement and tougher sanctions. Now given Transit and the Police recently admitted that in one location (Tokoroa-Taupo) speed wasn’t the key factor, it seems that as speed enforcement is really easy, they want to slow everyone down.

My view is that the biggest road safety problem comes down to punishment – people who kill others on the road due to stupidity should be banned from driving, for life. If you can’t stay on your side of the road, or obey a red light – then tough – and if you are caught driving again, you get imprisoned, for trespass. In a world of private roads, an unauthorised driver would be trespassing – but in New Zealand, it is a far bigger offence to be smoking cannabis than it is to be an idiot driving a car and killing someone. Speeding is an issue, on some roads in some conditions, but it is an attitude in New Zealand that you can’t punish bad driving – but you can punishing breaking rules. I don’t care if this means underprivileged stupid people are in prison for reckless driving causing death – better that than them being in prison for having the odd joint!

and the Police? Abolish victimless crimes, to give the Police more chance to follow real crimes -and make them locally accountable. Split the Police into several dozen precincts, each individually accountable to an electable sheriff - maybe not as many precincts as there are local authorities, but somewhere around 40. Then bulk fund according to the local population, let the Police pursue the local priorities, and anything that goes across precincts can remain the purview of a centralised investigation unit. Now that would be a change!

Wellington: Paremata congestion gone

Stuff reports that it seems that the much maligned Mana highway upgrade has done the job – morning and evening peak congestion has been eliminated. After much criticism that the $24 million upgrade was a waste of money and it should have been spent on the cargo cult called Transmission Gully – the $24 million upgrade works! A bit cheaper than the $1.1 billion price for Transmission Gully, but then the advocates of Transmission Gully have almost a social credit view of economics. The Mana upgrade had a benefit cost ratio of over 5:1, Transmission Gully is around 0.5:1 - it is obvious which project is a good investment.

The upgrade was based on a simple premise – the problem is that two lanes of free flowing traffic merge into one for several kms. So the solution was fairly straightforward – ensure two lanes flow between those points. The bridge was duplicated to create two lanes each way, and the road widened from Mana Esplanade to the 4-lane highway north of Plimmerton. In between those points parking is banned at peak times so an extra lane can operate in one direction. Five sets of traffic lights ease the flow from side roads, improve local and have not hindered the flow. In fact, the cops are concerned about speeding along the road now!

Who needs a 27 km hilly 4-lane motorway to fix this problem? Only stupid central and local body politicians addicted to spending other people's money promote this, along with a small number of local residents who will benefit from their properties not being on such a busy highway.

Now this wont be a long term solution, Transit says ten years and traffic growth will have filled up the road capacity. In the meantime, some consideration can be made about how to plan to fix that - a bypass at Mana is the best answer at around $220 million.

Ten years saving $1.1 billion on Transmission Gully (or $220 million on a Mana Bypass) is worth a good bit of money – at 5% interest a year, minus inflation it is still over $200 million in net savings from NOT building Transmission Gully. It is time to stop building roads well in advance of them being needed – if Transmission Gully or a Mana Bypass are to be built they it shouldn't be before 2015-2020 – and by then there may be congestion pricing, which could mean nothing need be done. The money can be used for something else.

So the pressure should be off – Paremata is no longer a traffic bottleneck, for now – another reason why politicians shouldn’t decide road building based on media driven popularity contests – I doubt if any Members of Parliament given a list of roading projects could decide what are the best ones.

Post Election Departmental Briefings

Having been involved in a couple of these over the years, they are interesting exercises. Departments/Ministries choose whether to give free and frank advice that may – to some – show ideological colours – or they dish out pablum - something plain and boring, which doesn’t represent a challenge to the status quo. Some of these briefings have been out this week and reported. A GOOD department will step aside from current policy and talk about outcomes, the current situation and what should be done to improve outcomes. This is a carefully calculated briefing about moving forward, rather than criticising past policies. Government departments can’t be seen to support or oppose previous policies, but simply advise on what they believe – professionally – is best.

Now the cynics amongst you will say this is highly political – there is no way that Treasury will NOT say cut spending and tax, or that the Minister for the Environment wont say tax pollution, regulate activities and spend money on green things. There is some truth to that – but I think that is the difference in flavour among many in the public sector. The difference between the statist and the economic rationalists, and each government department has a greater or lesser number of these.

For example, you are less likely to find some socialist statist nutcase working for The Treasury than an Austrian school free-market advocate – some would say like attracts like, I would say that this is simply good old fashioned commonsense. Treasury also, mostly, attracts highly skilled intelligent hard working people – the crèm de la crem of the public sector. This is one reason why Treasury gets involved in most areas of the public sector – not only does it have to advise on spending, but it actually contains high quality analysts generally. New Zealand could do worse than have the government run by The Treasury (though it could do better too). See much of what Treasury does is stop money being wasted and stop bad ideas from being implemented – so it attracts people who have the brains and the balls to say “wait- why are we doing this? What’s the evidence this is worth doing? Prove it!”. I can say that, on average, 4 out of 5 Treasury officials I dealt with were very smart people who I could engage with intellectually about issues. They had to go to Health, Education, Te Puni Kokiri, Environment and Social Development and say no – or ask questions of those who wanted to spend your money on their ideas. Treasury provided a brake on spending, and many times it would offer alternate recommendations in Cabinet papers which opposed what other departments were proposing- and it was really up to Dr. Cullen to take or leave that advice, and convince his colleagues if he took it.

On the flipside, the kooky useless nano-kleptoMinistries (Pacific Island Affairs, Youth Affairs, Women’s Affairs) tend to attract, mostly (I say this because I get surprised when the occasional intelligent rational person I know somehow gets hired by these agencies), lefty post-modernist deconstructionist types, or simply the vacant “I wanna help people” crowd who sleepwalk their ways from largely useless university degrees. These are the ones who see government as this great moneybin which Uncle Scrooge (Treasury) guards, and they want to save the world- they think that with the money taken from the productive, they can someone make a difference. They think that the country would be worse off without these little tags on the skin of the country, when in fact many of us can remember before they existed and would be happy to see those tags surgically removed. It would hurt the people there, but we would all be better off. These nano-kleptoMinistries could all be gone tomorrow, and virtually nobody in the country would be worse off, or miss them.

More disconcerting are the mega-kleptoMinistries – Education, Heath, Social Development, and many others, which constantly suck up large amounts of money, and play on the political heartstrings of MPs. They are driven almost entirely by socialists of some variety, who think what they do is so important and the only reason it isn’t done as well as it could be, is lack of money. Having convinced most New Zealanders that their health care and education is a matter for nanny state, they want to spend more, intervene more and regulate and tax more. They are the ones living it up under Labour, and they hate National governments. They are from leftwing academic, professional or union backgrounds and have every excuse in the world as to why they shouldn’t be accountable for performance – after all health is about people dying, and education about children – and what heartless soul would cut money for that!

I recommend you read post election briefings from The Treasury at least, and any other department you have a particular interest in. The media wont report on these critically – as New Zealand has precious few journalists, just reporters that take as given what departments say – except Treasury, because journalists are wary of anyone talking economics – they don’t understand it.

Privacy and the Motor Vehicle Register

I see that it has been reported in Stuff that “thieves track cars on vehicle register”.
You see you can, for a small fee, find out the name and address of any owner of a registered motor vehicle in New Zealand – useful if someone runs you over and you can recall the rego number, but also useful for marketing companies and stalkers. Although in some parts of the country the register is not exactly up to date, because the Police aren’t too keen on enforcing the law on such matters where it is rough.

Transport officials are drafting a Cabinet paper that would stem abuse of the system, including protecting against the disclosure of vehicle owners' personal information.

This is very old news, as Cabinet agreed in 2002 to tighten up privacy of the
Motor Vehicle Register it is about time – it simply hasn’t been a legislative priority since then.

Of course if roads were not run by the government there would still be a Motor Vehicle Register run collaboratively by the road companies, as there would be a need to ensure that there was a consistent level of information for charging vehicles, and enforcing conditions of using roads (currently traffic laws).

North Korea's new soulmate - Turkmenistan

If you thought the North Koreans were nuts then check out the imitator – Turkmenistan under President for life Niyazov, who took the ending of the Soviet Union as a chance to go back to Stalin – he calls himself Turkmenbashi and has written his own philosophy in the Ruhnama The BBC has an article about it here .

Or you can go to the Turmenistani government website yourself here and work it out for yourself. Make sure you have a firewall operating – websites of authoritarian governments are notoriously nosey on people’s PCs.

Bush on China

I read that President Bush has been acclaiming the freedom and democracy of Taiwan, and suggested that mainland China continue to open up and follow a similar path.

There is nothing in this that I think anyone who supports liberal democracy, whether libertarian or even the Green party could fundamentally disagree with. Taiwan and South Korea have both transitioned from authoritarian governments to being fully fledged vibrant and fairly free liberal democracies. Protest and free speech is open in both countries – leaving their counterparts (the People’s Republic of China and North Korea) far behind. Mainland China has made much progress, but it still executes political opponents and cracks down on freedom of expression from time to time.

And I don’t want to see any nonsense about the United States abusing human rights – organise a political party, print a newspaper, run a protest in New York, then try Taipei, then try Beijing – only in the last one will you face a long prison sentence and probably torture.

Bush is right - and only the George Galloways and other sycophants of murderers would disagree.

Demise of First Class

I miss first class.

This is an unashamedly elitist post – because I think it is slightly sad.

Air New Zealand quietly ceased providing a First Class service on its long haul flights earlier this year. This is in line with the introduction of its new class structure. It keeps economy - I mean scum class – by providing new seats and a fully interactive entertainment system. It provides premier economy class, which is like business class 15 or so years ago, with 6 inches more legroom, double the recline and a slightly classier food and drink service for more money –and business class has seats that recline fully to a flat bed with pillow and duvet – very nice indeed, not the sloping flat seats of (summaries of the business class products on these links) Qantas, Singapore Airlines or Cathay Pacific - but not first class.

Now admittedly Air New Zealand’s First Class seats are not as good as the new business ones, and its first class service was not quite up to that of the likes of Singapore Airlines or British Airways, but there was something about providing 5 star service on a plane that made it special. Touches like having a soup course, as well as a choice of entrees, constant attentiveness and separate quieter cabin – more amenities for the bathroom, and more separate check in from business – it was something for those who wanted nothing spared for their comfort and enjoyment inflight – and now the top product is for the well heeled business traveller or tourist, not the CEO.

Other airlines have dropped first class – Qantas dropped it from Auckland-LA flights, KLM, Scandinavian, Alitalia, Austrian, Finnair all have dropped first. Virgin Atlantic never had it – calling its top Upper Class- first class service at business class prices, and they are right, to a point.

Maybe it’s because few New Zealanders can afford first class or few first class travellers fly to New Zealand, maybe business class is just so good, that the next step isn’t worth it, maybe it costs so much to upgrade plane cabins to the next level (some Emirates planes have almost separate cabins for first class) that they better be filled or there is no point having them.

I remember when business class (and first class initially with Ansett) came to New Zealand domestic flights – that all disappeared when Air NZ realised that almost all of those seats were either taken up by MPs, or international travellers connecting to flights – very few wanted to pay to fly Wellington to Dunedin business class. Even Trans Tasman flights used to have first class with Air NZ and Qantas, now it is a cheap business class.

Still the market provides what it can bear. I flew first class four times on Air NZ, always upgrades from paid business class seats- it felt special, although a bit antiquated most recently. It was like a mini 5 star restaurant – and I got offered a separate DVD player (as it was recognised that the current tape based in flight entertainment system used in business class is kind of crappy) or Video Walkman with a selection of films to choose from. I sat in the former first class a couple of months ago flying to London- seat 1A no less – with business class service. It’s not the same, the big elaborate fruit and cheese board is gone, instead of selecting those I wanted, I got a small plate, pre-selected, handed to me. The rest of the meal was a good, albeit small, business class meal – and the service was still good- but it wasn’t first class.

and if you are thinking "what a wanker, I only fly economy class" then tough - I find flying long distances economy class to be little better than being shipped like cargo. You queue up like sheep at airports, at gates, cram yourself into tiny spaces in small seats, and expected to sleep upright while periodically some other pleb asks you to wake up and get out of your seat so they can join the 15 minute queue to go to the toilet. You wait for half an hour to an hour for your luggage at the other end. I'm 35, I've done that a few times and I will avoid it for trips of more than 5 hours now. Premium economy class can be a good compromise, but real travelling is business or first class- and the only people who deny it are those who haven't done it!

Wrapping children in cotton wool

The Sydney Morning Herald has reported that the Australian Federal Government is considering laws banning unauthorised photo taking in public places and publication of said photos. This is to cover cases of pedophiles taking what would otherwise be perfectly innocent photos of children at the beach or in the playground, and then publishing them on websites - a kind of legal voyeurism which creeps people out. Well it is creepy, but what is really going on here?

Nanny state is rearing her ugly head again - ready to stop all well meaning good people from taking photos in public places which may or may not include children - without permission from the parents. What if parents do this with their own children? (after all a fair proportion of child molestation cases involve relatives). One approach is commonsense - if you see someone creepy taking photos of your kids - tell them to fuck off, take your own photos of them. It also reflects the tragedy of the commons - in that publicly owned space cannot set limits on who goes there - I'm not suggesting gates around beaches and parks necessarily, but if such places WERE privately owned - the owner could set rules about taking photos, and the Police could intervene if someone breaks them, because then it would be trespassing. Private parks exist in the US, UK and other countries.

One of the problems of any laws on this are that is presumably this also covers TVNZ when it has a reporter on Lambton Quay at 4pm in the afternoon when countless school kids walk past – otherwise the defence will be “I was photographing the park, the children happened to be in it”.

I know what this is trying to do – people feel uncomfortable about images taken in public places when they are published. I, like countless others, have numerous photos of strangers that happen to be in photos of places I have photographed. There are photos of me as a child that my parents took in playgrounds, with other children there.

However, if anyone wants to understand why I fight rigorously against nanny state – this is one example. Yes there are perverted (mostly) men who masturbate about children – there always will be – unless we adopt a Taliban type approach and cover children in burkhas, this will happen. Most will never do more than that – in fact there are people who masturbate about strangers every day, including those they photograph. Ah, you say, but photographing children is creepy – no it is not. The only thing that is creepy is the motive. There are plenty of parents, relatives, caregivers who happily photograph the kids they are responsible for, or looking after, with their friends, and the motive is - 99% of the time – not sexual. You’ll never know when it is. There are strangers, photographers, journalists who will take photographs which include children, and again, it wont be sexual – but occasionally it is. When it is, 9 times out of 10 you will never know – and most importantly, the child is not harmed, anymore than it is harmed because someone has an image in their mind. See a photograph (not including child pornography here) of a child will to almost everyone be that – it wont have any consequence, and wont be sexual. However it will be to a pedophile. Fetishes are another example – there are countless people into all sorts of bizarre fetishes that would otherwise be seen as nonchalant – women holding balloons, white socks, knee high boots, watching people eat – all sorts of everyday things that if photographed mean nothing to anyone, except the fetishist. Frankly if everyone knew everyday everyone who thought something sexual about them, many times they would be horrified (though often intrigued!).

The line is crossed when the pedophile either acts on his desires upon a child, or threatens to – that is where the law steps in. The law simply cannot tell patrol thought crimes – though it often tries.

Even the Swiss are in on the act, with the Society of Saint Nicholas banning children hopping on Santas laps at Christmas time. This is incredibly sad. I sat on several Santa Claus laps when I was little, I don't recall Santa offering me some "special gift" from his pants, or trying to find one in mine, but it was special - now the society is reflecting fears of parents. What evidence is there that Santa Clauses are perverts? Except of course for workplace Christmas party ones - where it is the perfect excuse to get women to sit on your lap (I was work Santa for four years in a row and it paid off very well one year, and I am going to miss it this year!).

This sort of nonsense needs to end – just like the ban on parents videoing their children in a play or at the pool. Yes there are perverts out there, and yes a tiny minority hurt kids – but until they act or threaten to act to hurt the child, the law should not step in, and it certainly should not ban what are otherwise harmless activities. Pedophiles probably record kids talking too, they probably draw them and probably buy kids clothes because they turn them on – so are we going to ban everyone doing those things without permission too?

The one thing that is most ignored in all of this is that technology is also meaning that children, or more particularly adolescents also take their own photos, of each other - clothed and unclothed, and they distribute them. Not smart perhaps, but it happens - so do you ban 14yos taking digital photos of each other dressing up, or in bedrooms? Again, the law is really not the solution, it is just a tool.

Rod Donald

I was at Heathrow Airport checking my email before flying to San Francisco when I read the news. For all of the profound political differences I had with the man, I heard much more about him from a good friend of mine, who was his friend - who also had political differences. For me, Rod Donald was perhaps the brain of the Green Party - he carried more intellectual grunt than any of the others, and was a warm individual who liked a drink and enjoyed life. He was not one of the joyless hate filled mongers of nihilism that spme on the political spectrum are.

I will add more later, but he is a loss, as a human being, a warm character and someone that could be debated with - using minds. That, I respect.

Transmission Gully - The Real Story - Part 5

Having summarised the history up till now and the debate, this is my final post on the Transmission Gully story. The situation today is that 4500 submissions have been sent to the Greater Wellington Regional Council on the draft Western Corridor plan - I bet most are asking for money that hasn't been confiscated from people yet - to be spent on Transmission Gully. That is the flipside from the consultation on the Wellington Inner City Bypass, when plenty all wanted a road not to be built - even though the money from road users was there and it is a worthwhile project. Following that consultation, Transit and the Greater Wellington Regional Council will produce a final Western Corridor Plan, for endorsement or revision by the Transit New Zealand Board and the Wellington Regional Land Transport Committee - good luck to them both! There is a report back to Cabinet on whether there is an agreed Corridor Plan in order to access the $405 million additional funding I have mentioned in this posting - it requires agreement on a plan and agreement on how to pursue consenting for any upgrade on the current highway. The big issue is whether Cullen throws more general tax money at Wellington for Transmission Gully, whether Wellington can agree on a plan and what Transit's board thinks. This final major posting attempts to show why Transmission Gully is a lousy idea - not because I'm a Green, I like roads, but because it is a waste of money.

What should happen?

If Transmission Gully was around the same cost as the coastal upgrade, I would argue for my Option 3 in my previous post. However, the study and the peer review indicate that the difference in cost between the coastal option and Transmission Gully is around $250 million - $300 million. That is money I’d like to see going to other things.

The Transmission Gully advocates say it must be built regardless of cost – which Fulton Hogan and other construction contractors must be thrilled about, along with property owners. Why not pay all property owners $1 million minimum? Why not pay for all construction workers for the road to have annual first class holidays around the world and new Ferraris? After all – “bugger the cost”. Those examples seem extreme, but what IS the difference? What if that $250 million or so went on hospitals, or schools instead of a more expensive road to do the same job as a cheaper one?

The environmental arguments are somewhat specious once you get rid of the NIMBY syndrome. In my view, people who live on Mana Esplanade bought into their environment – they chose to live on State Highway 1 and now want to have their suburb exempt from that – which of course would not happen anyway, as 40% of the traffic would remain on the current route.

None of these areas have endangered species along them nor have any great natural significance – you’ll notice that the Greens or other environmental groups are on the side of the Gullites.

The first priorities for the part of the corridor between Paremata and Mackays Crossing (I take for granted that the other ends have higher needs) should be:

1. Build the median barrier from Pukerua Bay to Paekakariki: I believe Transit is pursuing this as fast as it can. I believe it is at the design stage and will be seeking consents to widen the road sufficiently for this to happen, at a relatively modest $16 million. This will significantly improve safety and reliability along the route.

2. Construct some sort of flyover/interchange at Paekakariki: Access to and from Paekakariki is far from safe, and something akin to a flyover over the current intersection for north-south traffic would help. The claims that Paekakariki Hill Rd would need $400 million spent on it as a result are nonsense, as Porirua City Council only needs to maintain it and manage it, not upgrade it to a 100 km/h highway!

3. Bypass Pukerua Bay: This is easy and should be built either to 2-lanes or 4-lanes, it will relieve that community, ease the queuing going north (as there is some loss of traffic at Pukerua Bay) and leave the most difficult bit till last.

4. Start pursuing options for routes for a Mana Bypass: Although the Mana upgrade that is now open seems to be working well and ensuring traffic flows reasonably smoothly – in the longer term Mana should be bypassed, which means some land around the Ngatitoa Domain would need to be used. The process for sorting this out will be lengthy, so should start as soon as it can.

Transmission Gully as a route can be retained as a long term option, but there is no need for 6-lanes between Wellington and Kapiti – 4-lanes is enough. Transmission Gully will make it 6-lanes, until Tawa when it becomes 4-lanes again!

The coastal 4-laning can be sought and eventually built, but is hardly the top priority. What has come over far too many people is a hysteria about congestion and road closures that nobody would say is worth spend $1.1 billion to fix. That is over $7000 for every Wellington household.

Government funding offer

As the final part of this saga up to now, Cabinet agreed earlier this year to two Crown contributions to a solution on the Western Corridor over the next ten to twelve years. These are:

1. $225 million to fund public transport and roading improvements along the entire Western Corridor (this can include Petone-Grenada, additional stages of the Kapiti Western Link Road, essential upgrades of the current route, and the modest rail upgrade plan). This funding is unconditional, and is to fund the highest priority parts of the Corridor.

2. $405 million to fund a solution for the access and congestion issues on State Highway 1 between Linden and Mackays Crossing. This is a contribution towards either the coastal route or Transmission Gully. It will not fully fund either – the only catch is that parts of the coastal route could be built (and benefits from them arise) and it is likely that other parts could be liable to get standard National Land Transport Fund funding anyway in the future.

A total of $885 million of taxpayers money for Wellington transport on top of the dedicated funding from road user charges and petrol tax - better than Auckland on a per capita basis!

Conclusion

The case for Transmission Gully does not stack up because:

1. It costs too much : At $1.1 billion it is a staggering amount of money, equivalent to all of the other conceivable roading projects that could be built in Wellington combined – it is worth more than all of the petrol tax collected in Wellington in 7 years, including all of the money spent on road maintenance and all other projects. Assuming the coastal route was not built, the next most expensive project proposed in the next ten or so years is the Petone-Grenada link road at $180 million – even a second Mt Victoria Tunnel and 4-lanes out to the airport would be around $250 million – the cost difference between Transmission Gully and the coastal route.

2. To build it would mean a subsidy to road users: To fund Transmission Gully would mean non-road users paying for a road – this should offend all supporters of user pays and the free market, as much as it should offend the Greens. The government has pledged to grant Wellington $885 million of taxpayers money for land transport in the next ten years. This is more than equal to all of the petrol tax paid in the Wellington region to the Crown Account – so essentially matches the National policy (for Wellington at least) for road funding. As Transmission Gully cannot be funded by tolls (only pays for less than 10%) and all the funding from petrol tax wont fund it either, then either general taxpayers have to fund a road to the capital or ratepayers do. Since the loudest councils on this (Porirua and Kapiti) are very silent when they are asked to ask their ratepayers for a contribution, the calls for Transmission Gully are piggies at the trough – Peter Dunne is seeking a porkbarrel, as is Porirua and Kapiti. This nonsense was supposed to have gone with Muldoon – it should remain in the past. The people living in Mana/Plimmerton who want others to pay for it are no surprise, but why should other people be made to pay for their prospective property value increases?

3. Transmission Gully is a bad investment: It doesn’t stack up on economic efficiency grounds. It has a benefit cost ratio of, at best 0.5:1, so it is like putting $1.1 billion in the bank and coming back 25 years later and finding only $550 million left – like Think Big. Not only would non-road users have to pay for it, but it wouldn’t even generate net economic benefits for the nation. It doesn’t even pay its costs. ACT and National, which rightly condemn poor investment in rail projects that are just as bad, can’t see a bad road when it stares them in the face. Losing $550 million in national wealth is an outrage, when there are hundreds of millions of dollars of roading projects elsewhere in New Zealand that generate positive returns. Simple measures like eliminating all traffic lights on Highway 2 from Wellington to Upper Hutt could save time and accidents, a second Mt Victoria Tunnel would all be positive investments. Anyone advocating a negative investment is simply plain stupid – why doesn’t everyone pay for some road users and property owners to benefit to half the extent of the cost.

4. The problems of the current route can be solved by other cheaper means: The reasons Transmission Gully is advocated are:
- Accidents along the coastal highway (not fixed just reduced in number by the Gully- largely fixed by a median barrier);
- Congestion at Mana (fixed, for now, by the now open upgrade – can be fixed longer term by a bypass at Mana for 20% of the cost of the Gully);
- Occasional road closures (usually due to accidents, largely fixed above. The very rare slip is hardly a reason to spend $250 million on insurance – and 4-laning the current road should enable it to remain open with at least one lane I each direction, even if part of the lanes are blocked.

Other congestion is less serious than many other locations in Wellington (e.g. Ngauranga, Mt Victoria Tunnel). For $220 million Mana can eventually be bypassed, and Pukerua Bay bypassed for $70 million. The coastal section does not need 4-laning for some years as congestion will not be severe enough to justify it, but the 4-laning of it will provide a far more reliable route than Transmission Gully – the second route mantra comes at a $250-$300 million premium. Why do something for quarter of a billion more than you need to?

5. The coastal route can be upgraded in stages: Transmission Gully is only worth building as one route, which would take five years construction and around four years pre-construction. It requires an enormous amount of funding and enormous construction effort for one project, once, with all the costs that the equipment would present for just one project (it would sit around largely useless for years after that or need to be moved to multiple locations to get used on smaller contracts). The coastal upgrade can be built in stages and the benefits realised progressively. The so-called disruption is what happens with all road projects – Transmission Gully would disrupt the motorway south of Porirua and the highway north of Paekakariki, the inner city bypass disrupts central Wellington. Auckland’s central motorway junction (spaghetti junction) is having several new ramps and lanes installed – on the busiest part of the roading network, and this is managed to avoid worsening peak congestion, and undertaking much work at night. Within 10 years, there could be a Pukerua Bay Bypass and the coastal 4-laning would be finished in year 11 along with a Paekakariki flyover. All that is left is a bypass at Mana. Transmission Gully would not be finished for 15 years.

6. An alternative route is unnecessary: The Hutt Valley has no realistic alternative route to Wellington if the Hutt motorway is closed. Auckland’s North Shore does not have one to Auckland if the Auckland Harbour Bridge is closed, the Wairarapa does not if the Rimutaka Hill Road is closed. New Zealand cannot afford to build parallel routes for the sake of it. Paekakariki Hill Road is a viable light vehicle alternative, and 4-laning (with a median barrier on) the coastal route will not only avoid most accidents which cause closures, but provide ample room for diverting traffic around incidents (which are unlikely to block 4-lanes with shoulders).

In addition, in the longer term there is likely to be some sort of road pricing to replace petrol tax - differentiating by time of day and location, which means congested roads cost more to use. Demand management, such as airlines, hotels and phone companies use to get people to use networks at off peak times and charge a premium at busiest times, will be the norm. Under that environment, people may think very carefully indeed before using scarce road space at peak times to commute to work. That is when very large expensive roads start to look rather redundant and you concentrate road investment on making what you have safer and more efficient (e.g. removing traffic light controlled intersections, additional lanes, realignments). That is a far more efficient approach.

The Transit New Zealand Board and the Wellington Regional Land Transport Committee should drop Transmission Gully for the reasons I have outlined above. ACT and National MPs should come to their senses with economic rationalism, and stop advocating a mindless Think Big Roading project, and advocate user pays - the pork barrelling they are pursuing should be above them. Peter Dunne should give it a rest and stop advocating for a road that will do nothing for his local constituents (when Petone-Grenada will), and Dr Cullen should stay out of it.

Transmission Gully is a bad project which needs consigning to the proverbial dustbin of history, someone needs the courage to put it to sleep.

Transmission Gully - The Real Story - Part 4

In Part 3 I summarised the funding that Transmission Gully cost far more than previously estimated and how Transit and the Wellington Regional Council responded to that – by calling for a more comprehensive study into transport along the corridor. I also summarised the government’s additional funding for Wellington transport, without the Western Corridor. In this part I go through the key study findings and what it really means. As submissions on the draft Western Corridor Plan are due in by Friday 4 November, I thought I better accelerate these posts in case anyone wants to make a submission. Details on the study are available at the Greater Wellington Regional Council website for the project

The Western Corridor Transportation Study

The Western Corridor Transportation Study goes through the basic stages of public policy analysis:

- Problem definition;
- Option identification;
- Option analysis;
- Recommended packages.

The project has three phases:

- Initial consultation (identifying issues, priorities and options that the public wanted considering);
This stage screened out options that were not worthy of further consideration (including electrification of the rail line to Otaki and converting Akatarawa Road into a major highway) and provided the raw data for putting together packages of projects that were complementary.

- Scenario testing (development of different packages of projects and consultation on those).

- Development of draft corridor plan (a preferred package for consultation).

This package has been consulted on by Transit and the regional council, with submissions closing on Friday.

The purpose of the study is to reach a Western Corridor Plan to be adopted by Transit and the Greater Wellington Regional Council. Another part of this is that the findings about the best transport options would inform advice to Ministers about what level of additional taxpayer funding should be provided for the Western Corridor.

Key findings

In terms of problems along the corridor, the key findings are:

1. Ngauranga Gorge has the worst congestion by far.
2. Traffic growth is greatest through Paraparaumu/Waikanae.
3. Trip reliability is the biggest issue of public concern– not safety or regular consistent congestion.
4. Paremata/Mana will be eased by the current improvements, but congestion will be back to current levels within ten years.

Congestion is low between Plimmerton and Mackays Crossing. Yes I know sometimes you get delayed for a short period on some evenings there, but on average, the traffic flows relatively well. Congestion at Pukerua Bay is starting to emerge at peak times, but congestion between Pukerua Bay and Mackays Crossing wont be serious for a bout 10-15 years. The biggest issue for the public is the route remaining open. Congestion is far more serious south of Tawa and particularly south of Johnsonville.

In addition, the main safety concerns largely relate to intersections on the highway (particularly between Raumati and Peka Peka) and the coastal stretch of highway.

Solutions

The key findings in relation to options are as follows:

1. The main weaknesses in the rail link are the single track sections between Pukerua Bay and Raumati. Passenger rail service frequency can be increased to 15 minute intervals at peak times to Paraparaumu only if some double tracking is carried out from Mackays Crossing to Raumati ($40 million). Further double tracking from Pukerua Bay to Paekakariki would improve reliability (as the line would be at capacity) but would cost another $280 million more – this is hardly worth it.

2. Rail alone wont fix congestion, as rail improvements will shift 500 people a day from car to rail, but only remove 100 vehicles from Ngauranga Gorge at peak times. At best some low cost enhancements (bigger park and ride) and improvements that would happen anyway (new trains and more frequent services) may delay growth in congestion, but beyond that rail improvements are very expensive and will deliver little.

3. Completely free flowing road capacity between Kapiti and Wellington at peak times will reduce rail patronage by 10% and will probably increase congestion south of Ngauranga.

4. North of Mackays Crossing, the Kapiti Western Link Road would reduce congestion in Paraparaumu and Waikanae, and improve reliability by providing a second crossing of the Waikanae River. In the longer term, an expressway following much of the current highway would reduce crashes and further relieve congestion, including providing options to bypass central Paraparaumu and Waikanae townships. There is little debate about this and Transit has the Kapiti Western Link Road – Stage 1 – in its 10 year State Highway Plan.

5. South of Linden, the Petone-Grenada link road would improve linkages for freight between the Hutt and the north, and the Hutt and Porirua, as well as providing congestion relief for the most congested parts of the Western and Hutt Corridors (Ngauranga Gorge and Ngauranga-Petone respectively). Petone-Grenada was the MOST ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT PROJECT evaluated in the study – it would generate the same level of benefits as Transmission Gully, but for only $180 million. Dr. Cullen and Peter Dunne might want to debate this, but it does show what value there is in politicians keeping out of the way – it is clear that the Petone-Grenada road is well worth building.

Now the real debate is between Linden and Mackays Crossing.

The BIG issue Gully vs Coast- same benefits, different cost

Some of the biggest myths need reiterating here. The best projects on the Western Corridor are NOT on this section. There are far greater benefits in building Petone-Grenada and a Kapiti expressway than either Transmission Gully or 4-laning the coast road. Simple as that. Why? Because the congestion at Ngauranga Gorge and between Hutt and Ngauranga is worse, the congestion in Kapiti is growing faster, and the crash rate in Kapiti is higher than along the coast road (plus the coastal crashes can largely be prevented by a median barrier).

Most roading projects in New Zealand proceed not because of politicians (hilarious seeing local MPs claiming credit for new roads – Winnie Laban and Darren Hughes had absolutely no influence at all on when the Mackays Crossing Overbridge proceeded), but proceed because they are fixing a problem that is worth fixing.

The much maligned Lindale underpass, unfortunately underscoped by Transit and above budget, was built because Lindale was the site of several fatal accidents, and with growth in that area would be the site of more – but Peter Dunne wouldn’t know that. One of the most treacherous sections of highway in Wellington used to be State Highway 2 outside Cornish St in Petone, until Transit resurfaced it with non-slip surfacing, which eliminated a blackspot – but Peter Dunne wouldn’t campaign for such a non-sexy project which actually saves lives for only a few hundred thousand dollars. Petone-Grenada would provide an alternative to the Hutt motorway for people going to the Hutt when that route is congested due to an accident – which happens several times a year – something I would have thought Hutt MPs would care about.

However, back to the central section of the Corridor. The issues are:

Safety: The coastal section head on collisions will be prevented by a median barrier (with some modest widening) which will cost around $16 million. Transit has design funding for this work, which will need resource consents as some of the existing walls and rock structures beside the highway need to be demolished – let's see if the Plimmerton and Paremata Residents’ Associations oppose this one. The other safety issues are intersections at Paekakariki and Airlie Road (Whenua Tapu cemetery), and the exposure to risk in Pukerua Bay and Mana. Paekakariki and Airlie Road are fixed with an overbridge ($25 million) and underpass (maybe $5 million) respectively – Transit is consulting separately on Paekakariki because it does not believe that it can continue with the current dangerous intersection regardless of whether or not Transmission Gully is built, and it is right. Transit also believes that a 2-lane bypass of Pukerua Bay ($50 million) is necessary, regardless of whether Transmission Gully is built – primarily because if it IS built (assuming untolled) 40% of traffic will remain on the current highway. So the main safety issues can be fixed for around $96 million – leaving Mana/Plimmerton still exposed (although safer as the traffic lights provide far safer traffic and pedestrian access for local residents). Transmission Gully would avoid the need for any further work at Mana, and possibly a Pukerua Bay Bypass.

Congestion: Congestion on this section will exist primarily at Mana/Plimmerton, within ten years of the latest improvements being completed, and the merge beyond the yet to be completed Mackays Crossing overbridge. Some modest congestion at Pukerua Bay is also likely where the 4-laning ends. The only way this can be resolved is by either 4-laning the entire route and a bypass at Mana, or Transmission Gully. However, lets get some perspective here. That congestion will be very much peak focused for relatively short periods, it wont be urgent at Mana/Plimmerton for some time, and a 2-lane Pukerua Bay Bypass will ease delays at that point. Congestion relief should not be a priority in the short term, but planning will need to be made to build extra capacity to relieve congestion in the medium to longer term.

Reliability: This is the issue that Transmission Gully proponents talk the most about – they want a third highway standard road into Wellington (there are already two – SH1 and SH2, and arguably Paekakariki Hill Road and Akatarawa Road both provide light traffic alternatives during closure). Another road would certainly improve reliability – but building in such a high level of redundancy for closures that happen only a few times a year, at such a high cost is something worth debating. The reliability problems of the current route are substantially reduced if a median barrier is installed, because it will significantly reduce the rate of crashes – which are the main reason the road gets closed. The crashes will also be located on one side of the road, meaning that traffic should still flow in the other direction.

Slips? These are rare, and the one event in the last year that closed the highway for a considerable period of time was unexpected, but is unlikely to happen again. This is when the option of 4-laning could make a significant difference. 4-laning the highway provides far more road space to undertake work to clear crashes and slips. It is relatively easy to clear a 4-lane highway of any incidents, so much so that the proposed “Reliability” package for the Western Corridor did NOT include Transmission Gully. In short, the reliability benefits of Transmission Gully (remembering it would be steep, with a viaduct along a fault line) are not worth it. Reliability is significantly improved by placing a median barrier along the coastal route and a flyover at Paekakariki, and would be adequate with 4-laning of the coastal route.

Cost

Now this is the critical one. According to the study, taking into account inflation and factoring in project risk, the comparison is as follows:


Transmission Gully $1.09 billion
Coastal upgrade $735 million (Comprised of Mana Bypass $220 million, Pukerua Bay Bypass $70 million, Coastal 4-laning $365 million, Paekakariki interchange 4-laning $20 million and Grays Road upgrade $60 million)

So there you have it. Since the study finding, a specific report was commissioned to confirm these costs and essentially, nothing bridges the $250-300 million gap in cost between these options. Both routes are about the same length, so no gain there. Both routes would enable 100 km/h travel between Mackays Crossing and Linden. The key difference is that Transmission Gully is a brand new 27km road built along a faultline in rural farmland vs selective upgrades to an existing road, with a couple of new segments along an established corridor and coastline, with some houses that will need to be moved or demolished.

Now note I have assumed a number of givens – that the median barrier along the coastal highway proceeds anyway, and a flyover (2-lane) at Paekakariki also proceeds anyway, but that the Pukerua Bay Bypass does not proceed regardless.

Transmission Gully’s benefit/cost ratio is now less than 0.5:1, it is a worst dog than ever before.

However, the coastal highway isn’t entirely the best project either. Parts of it are. A Mana Bypass is expected to be worthwhile within ten years, as traffic growth erodes the extra capacity benefits from the just completed upgrade. A Pukerua Bay Bypass is also expected to be worthwhile in saving travel time and significantly improving access around that community. However the coastal segment doesn’t generate many benefits and would struggle in itself to get a positive benefit/cost ratio (though is nowhere near as bad as Transmission Gully). The reason being that the only benefit in 4-laning the coastal section is really network reliability – safety benefits are minor and the congestion relief benefits are low as well, at least at current traffic volumes. The coastal section should be done last.

So what now?

Assuming silly arguments such as not doing Petone-Grenada are dismissed, along with refusing to do anything along the current route for safety reasons, there are three options:

1. Develop and build Transmission Gully. This would mean no pursuit of any coastal improvements after the median barrier is built and the Paekakariki flyover. Transmission Gully could probably be completed within 10-12 years.

2. Develop and build the coastal expressway upgrades progressively. The sequencing isn’t important, but would see the expressway completed within 10-15 years, although segments would be open in advance of that.

3. Build neither within the next ten years, but improve the existing highway to be a safe reliable 2-lane route until the economics of either of the above options improve.

Next: What my preferred option is and what funding the Labour government gave for the Western Corridor?

The Tory Party's chance to go forward

With the Tory Party race down to two horses - David Davis and David Cameron (and it all being up to party members now), it is timely to consider what this means for the party that once considered itself the natural party of government in the UK.

While much of the media is treating David Cameron as its darling child, David Davis has upped his campaign by wanting to reduce the size of the British government as a proportion of GDP to below 40%. He also has talked about flat tax, not too seriously mind you, but was floating it. Now the cynic in me says he just wants the votes that went to Liam Fox in the last round – trying to be the right wing candidate. He was never talking much like this before, and frankly I have seen enough conservative/libertarian mainstream party candidates before who disappointed. However, to his credit, he never used the drug issue to get at David Cameron, although it is unclear whether this was because it was more likely to backfire. Davis wouldn’t be bad, he has disowned the bad side of Blairism, the spin, the obfuscation of reality and the nanny statism that it still carries (the latest manifestation being a proposal to require sellers of houses to produce a certificate of fitness or similar so buyers don’t need to get the homes inspected – which, critics say, buyers wont trust anyway!).

Cameron, on the other hand, drips charisma, youth and enthusiasm. He has shown a disdain for mindless authority – his refusal to be drawn into whether or not he inhaled or snorted in his youth, shows some level of maturity. Many old fashioned Tories would have boo’ed him off the stage, before they paid some woman in black leather to dress them in a plaid skirt and stockings and tell them what a naughty girl they are. Cameron’s downside is that he is committed to increasing spending on public services as well as tax cuts – not exactly a trimming of the state, though his message appears to be one the public want to hear.

For me personally, it would be hard to pick between them. Ideologically, Davis is probably in favour of less government than Cameron – but critically, Cameron is more socially liberal than Davis. THAT is something the Tories desperately need. One solution promoted by Davis is for Cameron to be his deputy – there are worse options. Together they would represent a change, and balance each other out – and lets face it, the Tories have quite a majority to overturn to get elected in four to five years time. However, I doubt Davis can overturn it – he might cut it back substantially, but he hasn’t got the “X” factor that Cameron has.

So, reluctantly, I am still convinced David Cameron is the best hope the Tories have – to shed their old Conservative coat and to look less socially anal (and hypocritical). The Tories need to stop playing the closet race card of immigration – which, while a legitimate issue, is seen by too many non-Anglo Saxon migrants, as being racist – a way of tapping the likes who would otherwise support the ultranationalist British National Party. The Tories also need to stop treating homosexuals, single parents and anyone who doesn’t look like they are in a “born to rule” family, like not being worthy of their consideration.

Ironically, despite his Eton background, Cameron is the candidate most likely to do this. I believe with a consistent message, carefully disciplined, the Tories could waltz to victory, albeit a narrow one, at the next UK election. More and more Britons are tiring of Labour’s “tell us what to do” attitude, and Gordon Brown will creep Labour back towards old Labour, and the dynamism of reform that Blair has pursued will wither.

The Tories need this change, it is all they have, otherwise they will die. Blair at the Labour Party Conference this year said “never overestimate the LibDems and never underestimate the Tories” – now it is time for the Tory party membership to prove him right, I just hope that those that are still off their ventilators aren't still wondering why Winston Churchill isn't standing!