Yes it is literally all over, bar the counting, but Obama still isn't over the hurdle. Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida remain too close to call. That is the difference between the landslide and just victory.
McCain has virtually no chance to recover, but he could make it a close race.
Since 0330 GMT Virginia has gone to Obama with 13 projected.
Obama 220
McCain 135
Senate - D 52, R 38, independents (pro D) 2
House - D 171 R 111 (9 R>D)
Popular vote - 51% Obama, 48% McCain. At least that is showing a decent gap.
05 November 2008
0330 GMT: Still no landslide
Iowa for Obama with 7 electoral votes is another switch from the Republicans in 2004, no doubt because Obama backed agricultural subsidies!
Texas, Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas, Utah for McCain with 34, 6,6,6 and 5 respectively. All solid Republican states.
Popular vote is still 49% McCain, 50% Obama. Again, hardly a landslide.
Obama 207
McCain 135
Senate- 52 D, 36 R, 2 independents for Democrats (4 go from R to D)
House- 149 D, 91 R (218 for majority) (9 go from R to D)
Obama should win, given projections for Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa for him. However, I didn't think I'd need to be waiting up this long to get the result.
It remains painfully close in many states.
Texas, Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas, Utah for McCain with 34, 6,6,6 and 5 respectively. All solid Republican states.
Popular vote is still 49% McCain, 50% Obama. Again, hardly a landslide.
Obama 207
McCain 135
Senate- 52 D, 36 R, 2 independents for Democrats (4 go from R to D)
House- 149 D, 91 R (218 for majority) (9 go from R to D)
Obama should win, given projections for Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa for him. However, I didn't think I'd need to be waiting up this long to get the result.
It remains painfully close in many states.
0300 GMT - Obama on the cusp of victory
Obama now adds Ohio, New Mexico as projected wins, 20 and 5 respectively to hit 199. However, both are still with less than half the vote counted. However, if it goes through these are the first two states to fall from the Republicans, should mean an Obama victory.
McCain adds Louisiana with 9 to hit 78
Senate - projected 50 Democrat, 36 Republican, 2 independents (pro Democrat). Democrats will be happy.
House - projected 103 Democrat, 68 Republican. Long way to go yet.
The only ballot declared so far is Massachusetts - on abolishing state income tax - 69% no, with 44% declared.
McCain adds Louisiana with 9 to hit 78
Senate - projected 50 Democrat, 36 Republican, 2 independents (pro Democrat). Democrats will be happy.
House - projected 103 Democrat, 68 Republican. Long way to go yet.
The only ballot declared so far is Massachusetts - on abolishing state income tax - 69% no, with 44% declared.
0230 GMT - McCain needs Florida and Ohio
McCain must be worried about North Carolina, which remains slightly ahead for Obama with 39% of the vote. Ohio, Virginia and Indiana are too close to call. McCain needs them all.
CNN says:
Obama 174
McCain 69
Obama has:
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania.
McCain has:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota.
BBC is calling Ohio for Obama, which if true will be the breaking point for McCain.
CNN says:
Obama 174
McCain 69
Obama has:
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania.
McCain has:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota.
BBC is calling Ohio for Obama, which if true will be the breaking point for McCain.
Post 0200 GMT results preliminary from BBC
Michigan Obama 17 electoral votes
Minnesota Obama 10 electoral votes
Wisconsin Obama 10 electoral votes
New York Obama 31 electoral votes
North Dakota McCain 3 electoral votes
Wyoming McCain 3 electoral votes
Rhode Island Obama 4 electoral votes
No change from 2004 - still
CNN saying Obama 174 McCain 49
Minnesota Obama 10 electoral votes
Wisconsin Obama 10 electoral votes
New York Obama 31 electoral votes
North Dakota McCain 3 electoral votes
Wyoming McCain 3 electoral votes
Rhode Island Obama 4 electoral votes
No change from 2004 - still
CNN saying Obama 174 McCain 49
0159 GMT- On the cusp of the key states
Florida still too close to call, Georgia looks like McCain, along with Arkansas, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Senate - Democrats 47, Republicans 30
House - Democrats 38, Republicans 20
but a barrage of results about to come
Senate - Democrats 47, Republicans 30
House - Democrats 38, Republicans 20
but a barrage of results about to come
No states have changed compared to 2004 yet
I still would put my money on Obama, but one thing is clear:
It's 0145 GMT and not a single state that voted Bush in 2004 has voted Obama this time round.
Far too early to call, but... since last time:
CNN has declared Pennsylvania for Obama
so it IS 102/34
It's 0145 GMT and not a single state that voted Bush in 2004 has voted Obama this time round.
Far too early to call, but... since last time:
CNN has declared Pennsylvania for Obama
so it IS 102/34
0130 GMT - US election
CNN has Obama at 81, declaring New Hampshire but not Pennsylvania. McCain still at 34.
McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. These all remain too close to call.
McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. These all remain too close to call.
0115 GMT - US election update
Pennsylvania projected for Obama 21 electoral votes
New Hampshire projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
Illinois projected for Obama 21 electoral votes
DC projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Massachusetts projected for Obama 12 electoral votes
Delaware projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Tennessee projcted for McCain 11 electoral votes
Maryland projected for Obama 10 electoral votes
Connecticut projected for Obama 7 electoral votes
Oklahoma projectd for McCain 7 electoral votes
Maine projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
New Jersey projected for Obama 15 electoral votes
Obama winning Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are both major blows to McCain who hoped to pick them up. Both went to Kerry in 2004
Fundamentally there have not been any changes in states compared to 2004.
CNN is saying 77 for Obama and 34 for McCain.
BBC is saying 103 for Obama.
The landslide hasn't happened - yet.
New Hampshire projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
Illinois projected for Obama 21 electoral votes
DC projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Massachusetts projected for Obama 12 electoral votes
Delaware projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Tennessee projcted for McCain 11 electoral votes
Maryland projected for Obama 10 electoral votes
Connecticut projected for Obama 7 electoral votes
Oklahoma projectd for McCain 7 electoral votes
Maine projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
New Jersey projected for Obama 15 electoral votes
Obama winning Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are both major blows to McCain who hoped to pick them up. Both went to Kerry in 2004
Fundamentally there have not been any changes in states compared to 2004.
CNN is saying 77 for Obama and 34 for McCain.
BBC is saying 103 for Obama.
The landslide hasn't happened - yet.
0100 GMT - US elections
President - McCain 16 (South Carolina projected to win although Obama is ahead!), Obama 3
Still no change from 2004 election. Too early to say.
Senate - (including uncontested) Democrats 41 Republicans 27. 1 win for the Democrats
House - Democrats 8, Republicans 6
75% turnout reported
Still no change from 2004 election. Too early to say.
Senate - (including uncontested) Democrats 41 Republicans 27. 1 win for the Democrats
House - Democrats 8, Republicans 6
75% turnout reported
Real Clear Politics - real clear coverage
Yes, go here, watch it add up with the proportion of the vote counted, and the proportion for the candidates.
It's easier to use than any of the TV networks.
It's looking closer than many would have thought.
It's easier to use than any of the TV networks.
It's looking closer than many would have thought.
What to watch
States to watch are:
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
South Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Senate- Democrats hold 39 and Republicans 26 that aren't up for grabs. 35 seats up for grabs. 2006 saw the two parties holding 49 each, with 2 independents holding the balance of power. Democrats will be looking to grab 21 seats out of the 35 to get a supermajority. Republicans obviously seeking to grab 25 to keep the Democrats at bay.
House - 435 up for grabs. Democrats won 233 in 2006, Republicans 202.
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
South Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Senate- Democrats hold 39 and Republicans 26 that aren't up for grabs. 35 seats up for grabs. 2006 saw the two parties holding 49 each, with 2 independents holding the balance of power. Democrats will be looking to grab 21 seats out of the 35 to get a supermajority. Republicans obviously seeking to grab 25 to keep the Democrats at bay.
House - 435 up for grabs. Democrats won 233 in 2006, Republicans 202.
US ballot measures worth watching
One side of the US elections are state based referenda on many issues. There are few this time compared to recent years. So courtesy of CNN - here they are.
Measures I would support:
California - Parental or guardian notification of abortion sought by a minor
Colorado - End affirmative action
Maryland - Allow video lottery
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana
Michigan - Allow stem cell research
Nebraska - End affirmative action
South Dakota - Limits on abortion to 20 weeks, and cases of mother's health
Washington - Allow doctor assisted suicide
Measures I would oppose:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants
Arkansas - Ban on gay couples adopting children
California - Ban on gay marriage
Colorado - Human life defined as from moment of conception
Florida - Ban on gay marriage
South Dakota - Limiting abortion to rape/incest and health of the mother
Measures I would support:
California - Parental or guardian notification of abortion sought by a minor
Colorado - End affirmative action
Maryland - Allow video lottery
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana
Michigan - Allow stem cell research
Nebraska - End affirmative action
South Dakota - Limits on abortion to 20 weeks, and cases of mother's health
Washington - Allow doctor assisted suicide
Measures I would oppose:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants
Arkansas - Ban on gay couples adopting children
California - Ban on gay marriage
Colorado - Human life defined as from moment of conception
Florida - Ban on gay marriage
South Dakota - Limiting abortion to rape/incest and health of the mother
First US results
Kentucky McCain 8 electoral votes
Vermont Obama 3 electoral votes
No change from 2004
Vermont Obama 3 electoral votes
No change from 2004
Record turnout in US election
The Daily Telegraph is predicting 65% turnout, well above that of 55% in 2004, 51% in 2000, 49% in 1996.
That is a good thing.
It's either a massive turnout for the rockstar Obama, or a massive turnout to reject him. Methinks the former.
Most African Americans are, understandably, voting for the candidate who represents their aspiration. However, it is remarkably sad that beyond that, so many are choosing based on style - and that goes for both sides. Substance is sadly lacking.
That is a good thing.
It's either a massive turnout for the rockstar Obama, or a massive turnout to reject him. Methinks the former.
Most African Americans are, understandably, voting for the candidate who represents their aspiration. However, it is remarkably sad that beyond that, so many are choosing based on style - and that goes for both sides. Substance is sadly lacking.
Green policy means keeping kids indoors
It's so stupid it is worth highlighting again:
The Green Party electromagnetic policy includes "Minimise exposure to electromagnetic radiation especially for children and pregnant women."
Electromagnetic radiation includes visible light.
So the Greens presumably want kids keep indoors during the day, and at night, keep the lights out.
Oh and if that isn't good enough for you, it would include wifi internet, it would include all computer monitors, TV screens, and even radios - they all emit electromagnetic radiation.
Do you still trust the Greens on anything scientific?
The Green Party electromagnetic policy includes "Minimise exposure to electromagnetic radiation especially for children and pregnant women."
Electromagnetic radiation includes visible light.
So the Greens presumably want kids keep indoors during the day, and at night, keep the lights out.
Oh and if that isn't good enough for you, it would include wifi internet, it would include all computer monitors, TV screens, and even radios - they all emit electromagnetic radiation.
Do you still trust the Greens on anything scientific?
Anderton right to call Key's approach Muldoonist
Yep more stinking pork, now it is National promising Tauranga money for a road - like the very worst in politics, without even knowing the cost and without knowing how worthwhile that project is compared to others - or even whether those who use it would pay for it. Like a King going round making promises to the little people.
Anderton says "There may well be a good case for the road in Tauranga, but it needs to be transparently compared to the business case for other possible infrastructure uses for $100 million, and there needs to be a very transparent total pool of funding available" which there is, and in fact another use is to give it back to those who paid it. If National simply applied its policy from the 1990s, it would be just as Anderton describes - even though he opposed it at the time.
Funny old world politics isn't it? It isn't about policies - it is about being scoundrels to principle.
Will John Key announce National will fund the much needed widening of the Victoria Park Viaduct ( now foolishly an overly ambitious tunnel project) in Auckland? That is one of the best road projects in the country - objectively speaking - but clearly winning votes among Auckland commuters is less important that beating Winston.
Or maybe he will announce funding the Kapiti Western Link Road, one of the best projects in Wellington, or maybe he'll announce the Schedewys Hill realignment north of Auckland? Maybe he hasn't heard of any of these? Because he's a politician and if you rely on politicians to make decisions on things like this, they'll make mistakes, they'll spend money to get votes, not to deliver best outcomes.
That's Muldoonism and oh John, it's Winston Peters, Peter Dunne and the Labour party too.
Wouldn't it be nice if politicians admitted they DON'T know what's best for everyone?
I mean other than Libertarianz of course.
Anderton says "There may well be a good case for the road in Tauranga, but it needs to be transparently compared to the business case for other possible infrastructure uses for $100 million, and there needs to be a very transparent total pool of funding available" which there is, and in fact another use is to give it back to those who paid it. If National simply applied its policy from the 1990s, it would be just as Anderton describes - even though he opposed it at the time.
Funny old world politics isn't it? It isn't about policies - it is about being scoundrels to principle.
Will John Key announce National will fund the much needed widening of the Victoria Park Viaduct ( now foolishly an overly ambitious tunnel project) in Auckland? That is one of the best road projects in the country - objectively speaking - but clearly winning votes among Auckland commuters is less important that beating Winston.
Or maybe he will announce funding the Kapiti Western Link Road, one of the best projects in Wellington, or maybe he'll announce the Schedewys Hill realignment north of Auckland? Maybe he hasn't heard of any of these? Because he's a politician and if you rely on politicians to make decisions on things like this, they'll make mistakes, they'll spend money to get votes, not to deliver best outcomes.
That's Muldoonism and oh John, it's Winston Peters, Peter Dunne and the Labour party too.
Wouldn't it be nice if politicians admitted they DON'T know what's best for everyone?
I mean other than Libertarianz of course.
Greens have another anti-science policy
I blogged about this a couple of months ago - the scaremongering hysteria of Sue Kedgley about cellphone towers.
Now it is Green Party policy - a policy on electromagnetic radiation!
Kedgley barked:
"Communities all over New Zealand are fighting the construction of cell towers. Many are desperate as some towers are near their homes and even children's bedrooms, and they are worried about the potential health effects - as well as the effect on their property values."
Only because you're scaring them you evil conniving bitch. How utterly despicable she is, "children's bedrooms". Have you mapped all of the TV translator locations near "children's bedrooms"? Have you told them the REAL evidence you have of health effects?
No.
You go around the country scaring the scientifically dumb, scaring them for votes. Painting the telecommunications industry as evil, threatening the health of children and with what evidence?
Nothing.
However, big foreign telecommunications companies are an easy target for a mediocre, scientifically illiterate socialist.
Now it is Green Party policy - a policy on electromagnetic radiation!
Kedgley barked:
"Communities all over New Zealand are fighting the construction of cell towers. Many are desperate as some towers are near their homes and even children's bedrooms, and they are worried about the potential health effects - as well as the effect on their property values."
Only because you're scaring them you evil conniving bitch. How utterly despicable she is, "children's bedrooms". Have you mapped all of the TV translator locations near "children's bedrooms"? Have you told them the REAL evidence you have of health effects?
No.
You go around the country scaring the scientifically dumb, scaring them for votes. Painting the telecommunications industry as evil, threatening the health of children and with what evidence?
Nothing.
However, big foreign telecommunications companies are an easy target for a mediocre, scientifically illiterate socialist.
Do you talk about the effect of broadcasting transmitters? No. Even though they have been around a lot longer, have far higher powers. Because you couldn't tell people TV and radio is harming them could you.
Do you talk about the effect of EMR from electric railway catenary? No - because you like electric trains. After all, there couldn't be EMR from
Do you stop using your cellphone? No of course not, don't be silly.
Oh and Sue? You're bathed in electromagnetic frequencies every day - in fact you're about to hit the period of the year when it gets most intense. Visible light is electromagnetic radiation you ignorant twit.
So what WOULD this policy mean?
It would ban any new TV or radio stations, the sale of home wireless routers, laptops with wifi capability, cellphones. Because:
"protecting public health and taking preventative action before certainty of harm is proven must be the basis of decision making" (sic) would mean no more EMR".
Kids wont use laptops, wont use radios (they emit EMR as well as receive it), will stay indoors, and will not use lights because the Greens will "Minimise exposure to electromagnetic radiation especially for children". After all light, infrared, ultraviolent, radio waves (which is what cellphone towers emit) are all forms of EMR.
You might find you can't use your cellphone at all in many areas because the Greens would "Not permit cell phone towers in residential areas or near schools and childcare centres, and ensure communities get to decide where they go".
So that's it - why have a cellphone? You wont have coverage near your home.
The policy is utterly brainless, it is completely divorced from science and evidence, and shows exactly where reason and the Greens are located - on other planets. The worst part of the policy is how the despicable scaremongering Sue Kedgley scares ignorant mothers to think their children are at risk from cellphone transmitters.
That is simply plain evil.
Maori Party want more welfare too
Yes it's not just abolish the dole, according to the NZ Herald, it's also give $500 to the poorest families - taken of course from everyone else.
What do they get that for?
What did they do to earn it?
What will they spend it on?
The Herald asks Adelaide Wharakura, a mother working part time, who would get the money if she backs it, she obviously says yes, but even so she is wiser than the Maori Party. She said:
"Who it makes a difference to depends on which families you give it to. There are a lot of drugs and alcohol. If I'm being honest [there are some who would] rather spend money on things like that. This money shouldn't be spent like that - there should be some checks or rules"
Yes, money taken from hard working taxpayers as a handout, which some will use on drugs and alcohol.
Even the Maori Party's candidate for Hauraki-Waikato said "it was likely that for some children the money wouldn't trickle down and the majority would miss out"
So a bit of theft and giving money for nothing is still ok - take from more successful families to pay for less successful ones.
Marxist Maori Party nonsense - it wants to take your money and give it away for nothing.
and Labour and National will both go to bed with it for power. So why would you vote for them?
UPDATE: Not PC posts eloquently on the nonsense of the "multiplier effect" of boosting the economy by taking money from people in the first place.
What do they get that for?
What did they do to earn it?
What will they spend it on?
The Herald asks Adelaide Wharakura, a mother working part time, who would get the money if she backs it, she obviously says yes, but even so she is wiser than the Maori Party. She said:
"Who it makes a difference to depends on which families you give it to. There are a lot of drugs and alcohol. If I'm being honest [there are some who would] rather spend money on things like that. This money shouldn't be spent like that - there should be some checks or rules"
Yes, money taken from hard working taxpayers as a handout, which some will use on drugs and alcohol.
Even the Maori Party's candidate for Hauraki-Waikato said "it was likely that for some children the money wouldn't trickle down and the majority would miss out"
So a bit of theft and giving money for nothing is still ok - take from more successful families to pay for less successful ones.
Marxist Maori Party nonsense - it wants to take your money and give it away for nothing.
and Labour and National will both go to bed with it for power. So why would you vote for them?
UPDATE: Not PC posts eloquently on the nonsense of the "multiplier effect" of boosting the economy by taking money from people in the first place.
National's agenda after the election
Stuff reports that after tax cuts and an increase in welfare:
"He also intends introducing at least seven big bills dealing with violent offenders, criminal gangs and youth crime, DNA testing for every person arrested for an imprisonable offence and increased police powers to protect domestic violence victims."
"He also intends introducing at least seven big bills dealing with violent offenders, criminal gangs and youth crime, DNA testing for every person arrested for an imprisonable offence and increased police powers to protect domestic violence victims."
Yes, you read it. DNA testing for every person arrested for an imprisonable offence, whether guilty or not.
ACT's website has no recent press release on this, but it does have them from 2004 and 2002. Then ACT supported having a DNA database for all convicted criminals, any taken from suspects who are cleared should be destroyed.
I'd like to know what ACT policy is now. I know Libertarianz would categorically reject a database of DNA from people who are not convicted who did not consent to it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)