Is fuel tax in the UK becoming impossible to increase?

I hope so.

Yesterday, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne did his latest U-turn on his budget – he deferred a 3p/l increase in fuel duty that was planned for August. The increase had actually been planned under the Gordon Brown administration, which was always keen to increase taxes on fuel faster than inflation. The coalition government simply sought to maintain it, but was under pressure from Labour (hypocritically) and others to not proceed with it, so it has been delayed.

Now this move is welcome. Unlike the US (and New Zealand now), increases in fuel tax in the UK are not dedicated to spending on transport, but general revenue (and indeed four times as much is collected in fuel tax than is spent on roads). The statist media (indeed state media in the form of the BBC and Channel 4) talk about how it is a “cost” of £500 million (£1.5 billion if the increase is permanently suspended), but this is of course only the nonsense accounting view of Treasury.

It is £500 million that remains in the economy to be spent, invested or saved by individuals and businesses, rather than be spent by government. On top of that the official view (ineptly put by junior minister Chloe Smith) is that it is “funded” by savings in spending from various government agencies. All good stuff, but it does raise two issues.

The first is whether it is permanent. It’s unclear how it will be easier to raise fuel duty in January compared to August. The same politics will arise then and rightfully so.

The second is whether the UK is finally getting to the point where atlas (in the form of motorists) will shrug and say “no more”, at least in relation to fuel tax. That stage has already been reached in the US where the federal government has been unable to raise fuel tax since 1994 and neither have 20 states. It’s causing concern because, unlike the UK, fuel tax in the US is dedicated to expenditure on transport, mostly roads and so it is becoming difficult to fund improvements and maintenance. As a result, more and more states are looking at new ways to pay for roads, with tolls for new links and capacity being popular, along with letting private companies build improvements and toll for them, others are considering how to replace fuel tax completely with direct user charges.

In short, the politics of increasing fuel tax are promoting a shift to user pays, away from taxing proxies, in the United States.

Opposition to fuel tax increases is understandable. People don’t want to pay more when they see government poorly spending the money it does get, with money misdirected to politically motivated new works whilst maintenance falls by the wayside. Tolls are grudgingly supported because they get linked to what you use.

In the UK, opposition is twofold. For a start, motorists feel unfairly singled out, with tax at around 59p a litre BEFORE VAT, tax is the majority of the price of fuel.

Most grudgingly accept VAT on most goods and services, because it isn’t targeted. There is also tolerance of taxes on alcohol and tobacco because of the links between their consumption and health impacts. However, why fuel?

Since none of the money is dedicated to roads (and it is many times higher than the road budget) and roads are crumbling, it seems it has nothing to do with that.

Since there is a discounted rate of VAT on electricity and gas, the environmental argument seems fatuous and inconsistent.

What remains is a Nanny State finger pointing view, aligned to the Green Party, that people “shouldn’t” drive and so fuel tax is a way of encouraging them to use public transport, cycle or walk. The fact that the freight hauled on most trucks has no realistic alternative mode is blanked out. The fact that so many reject other modes, even though they are subsidised (with taxpayer subsidies for rail almost as much as total spending on roads), indicates that it doesn’t meet their needs.

So the overwhelming impression is that fuel duty in the UK is about fleecing people who have few options to avoid it.

It is about time motorists stood up and said enough.

There is a reasonable argument that, in the absence of tolls and privatisation of roads, a tax on fuel used on the roads is a rough proxy for user pays. So if the rate of fuel duty was to match that (taking into account tax taken from annual vehicle excise duty) it would drop from 59p to around 9p a litre (in fact given the massive backlog of capital work needed to renew the network I’d say 10p). If that was transparent, then it would show it up for what it is – a tax grab. Any reasonable view of it being environmental would mean increasing VAT on electricity and gas, which is also unpalatable.

It SHOULD become political unpalatable to continually increase fuel duty – a tactic that Chancellors of the Exchequer have been using since John Major, with Gordon Brown particularly keen on milking money from motorists.

Of course the UK can’t cut fuel tax more than half, for EU law prevents reducing tax on unleaded fuel below what is around 29p/l. Yes, the EU actually sets FLOORS for taxes with Directive 2003/96/EC.

Meanwhile, it ought to be time that UK motorists generally said no – and were louder and more militant against persistent tax increases. This fuel duty increase postponement should be permanent, and fuel duty ought to be in decline.

Shock news - Socialists hate constraining local government

Some months ago Nick Smith raised himself in my estimation (to be fair, the only way was up) by declaring that the “power of general competence” granted local authorities around a decade ago by the then Labour-Alliance coalition government, with warm support from the Green Party, would be overturned.  Rodney Hide, whose beliefs should have meant he was at the forefront of this, failed, and Nick Smith, who is typically considered to be one of the more centrist of the Nat Cabinet Ministers, embraced an agenda of local government sticking to “core services”.

Now setting aside what they are (and I think it could be very few), this has the promise to help keep local government out of private property rights, out of the way of businesses, individuals and keep rates bills from rising faster than inflation.   It essentially would stop councils thinking they can grow functions as long as they can force ratepayers to pay for them.

When Labour, the Alliance and the Greens embraced “empowered” local government, it was part of a wider belief that the role of the state, including local government, should not be constrained by legislation if elected councillors wanted local government to do things.  It was saying that when councillors are elected, they should have the widest mandate to “do as they wish” collectively,  because accountability would lie at the next local election.  All very well if you think of government and society as being a conglomeration of groups with interests that are all competing, which are gloriously tempered by democracy.  Not very well if you think government is the body with the monopoly of legitimised force against individuals, which typically takes from the many to give to the few, and which regulates some for the satisfaction of others.

You see, those on the left of the political spectrum have a benign, almost warm fuzzy view of government because it can do things that they can’t do themselves – for them it is about forcing people to do things or banning them, or engaging in commercial or non-commercial activities that none of them could ever imagine being able to do so by choice.   For me, it is about using the coercive power of the state to use other people’s money to pursue pet projects and to take rights or property from some less favoured individuals for the benefit of more favoured ones.

It is hardly surprising then to read the news that Wellington’s Green Party Mayor is upset about the proposed changes, and spouts the typical propaganda line used by anyone who thinks local government is representative.  She talks about it constraining the “self-determination of communities”.  Really? For a start, a community does not have a collective brain, it is comprised of individuals with their own views.  As a result, a community is not a “self” so cannot have “self-determination”, because it is comprised of hundreds or thousands of “selves”.  If thousands of people want to act in a particular way, they do not need local government if they are not intending to use force.  They can fund raise, they can spend their own money, they can open up a business, or a charity or they can boycott one.   Indeed, self-determination of the individuals in a community is very empowering.

Yet what Celia Wade-Brown means is the power to force people to pay for something they don’t want, or the power to ban people from doing or make people do things they don’t like.

The idea that people in a city are somehow “empowered” because a minority of them bother to vote for a cabal of councillors who are off the leash and able to do whatever a majority of them deem as being a “good idea”, is a nonsense akin to the absurd theory of the “vanguard party” of the people which represents the “general will”. (Remember your will if contrary to that, is at best meaningless, at worst dangerous).

For the leftwing gutter rag the Standard to support this view is unsurprising.  Besides generating a headline that is sheer nonsense (if only it were true), it talks in glowing terms of local democracy, largely because statists like themselves think of government as doing “good”.  It makes the false claim that New Zealand local government “has the lowest gathering of funds at a regional level in the entire OECD”, when the UK easily outstrips that (there being very low contributions from council tax).  It raises the red herring that “attempts to change this with regional fuel tax and congestion charges” have been vetoed by National, when there is no evidence that any local authorities in New Zealand have wanted to do either (nor did Labour push for either outside Auckland).  Nothing gets statists excited more than wanting new taxes and new ways they can interfere in the lives of businesses, property owners and individuals in the guise of “local democracy”.

It cites an article by Christine Cheyne of Massey University.  The same Christine Cheyne who was an advisor to Prime Minister Helen Clark on local government and transport policy.  Not surprisingly she will take the view that the status quo is just wonderful.

Local government should be constrained.  Regional Councils were once just regional water catchment boards, they should return to this role.  Territorial authorities were once simply land use planning agencies that also looked after local roads, parks and refuse collection, they should return to the planning function alone with the rest of the activities privatised by both sale and transfer to ratepayer shareholding owned entities.  The monstrosity that is Auckland Council should be curtailed back in the same way.  If local government is to have any function it can be as a local arbitrator and record keeper of property rights in land (and waterways and airspace).  Nick Smith’s bill should turn the clock back to the situation pre 2002 in many senses (although it doesn’t have a clear vision for its role in transport, which is another issue).  It isn’t enough but it is a good start, the next big step ought to be to deal with the RMA – but I’m not holding my breath for that one.

Meanwhile, you have until 26 July to make a submission on the Bill.  Go on, encourage Nick, you know the other lot will be moaning and groaning for councillors to keep and strengthen their powers to tax, spend, borrow and regulate.   The Labour Party, which treats local government as a training ground for its new generation of finger-pointing, do gooding, control freaks, is already prepared with an automatic submission website (which I wouldn't waste your time editing, because they wont forward submissions that disagree with their "we know best" point of view).

Egypt's new dawn or a new dark age

For many years, there has been much concern expressed in the Western world about the consequences of letting the Muslim Brotherhood take over in Egypt.  After all, it was the justification for providing oodles of financial support for Hosni Mubarak’s regime, after he succeeded Anwar Sadat (who dared to make peace with Israel and was assassinated as a result), who himself succeeded the warmongering personality cult figure of Nasser.   Egyptians have been under the jackboot of dictatorship for decades, and as much as US Administrations have appeased Mubarak and Sadat (given both have maintained peace with Israel and kept the Suez Canal open), their opponents have long deified Nasser.  Egyptians who dared cross with any of the regimes would face a police, secret police and military ably dishing out summary justice, engaging in imprisonment, torture and summary executions.  

There were two comforts casually taken by Western supporters of the Mubarak regime.  One was that he wouldn’t wage war against Israel, back Islamists in Iran, Israel or elsewhere.  The value of having an ally who is peaceful in an area that has been volatile, is considerable, especially when it can have its hands on the throat of one of the great shipping routes between Europe, the Persian Gulf and Asia.   The second was that Egypt appeared to modernise.  It could be seen in the malls and shopping centres in Cairo, where young Egyptian women would walk around in jeans, hair uncovered and look little different from those in Europe.  It could be seen in the relative vitality of a country that welcomes tourists, has many fluent in English and had a semblance of a civil society.   However, underneath that entire facade were multiple pressures.

The first was the tired nature of living under a tired corrupt regime that had last more than 30 years with one president.  A regime where wealth and success could come to the well connected, the relatives, the friends and those willing to share with those in power the booty of contracts, trade and business.  A regime where the victims of such corruption, victims of the extra-legal use of authority by the regime would be ignored, at best.  A seething resentment that a country that was becoming wealthier, more connected, with an increasingly younger population, was sitting atop something rotten.  

The second came from those who resisted the modernisation, who saw the wealth and success of fellow Arab regimes to east and west, and would spread resentment at the dependency of Egypt on the succour of the United States (Egypt being, until recently, the second biggest recipient of US taxpayer funded aid after Israel).  They would prey upon the fact that most Egyptians are Muslims and see the hope in dealing with corruption, crime and what they perceived as moral decay, in dumping the quasi-secularism of the Mubarak regime, in favour of Islamism.  They did not think of the 10% Christian minority, or the tiny Jewish minority, nor did they think women should be anything but “equal, yet not bearing duties against their nature and role in the family”.  They would also prey upon the strong anti-Israeli sentiment, which harks back to the families whose sons were victims of the wars Egypt had waged against Israel in the past, and the strong fraternal sense of injustice many Egyptians felt with Palestinian Arabs.

So when Egyptians threw off the Mubarak regime and held elections, the inevitable binary result was that the top two candidates would represent the old regime, and the organisation best organised and longest protesting about it – the Muslim Brotherhood.

With Mr. Morsi becoming President, in a land that no longer has a working Constitution, the stage is set for a new battle.  Given the Parliamentary elections have been ruled null and void, these will presumably be held again, but he faces the army first and the smaller mass of Egyptians who support modernity.  The women who deep down fear new laws about what they wear, who they marry, their rights to divorce, their treatment if abused, their employment and their work.  The Christians who fear new laws about worship, about free speech, about education and about equal treatment under the law.  The Egyptians more generally who want a society where the state protects everyone’s rights, as individuals, including the right to apostasy (which has, at best, been controversial and difficult in Egypt).

For now, it is likely that Egypt will not become the new Iran.  It is still receiving US government largesse, which is largely benefiting the military.  Any shift in policy that results in this ending will risk a military coup, given the sheer size of the Egyptian military.  However, it is difficult to envisage how a man who belongs to an Islamist organisation, which espouses Sharia law as definitive, which seeks to restrict the role of women, which supports the abolition of the state of Israel and considers jihad and martyrdom as glorious, is going to ever represent a step forward.

If his colleagues get elected in the Parliamentary elections (along with Salafists who are more extremist), then one can envisage a new constitution.  Not one that separates religion and state, nor one that prioritises individual rights.

The intellectual bankruptcy of supporting democracy as the measure of freedom will then be revealed. Egyptians will be deemed to have “supported” an Islamic state, and it will be “better” than the Mubarak regime.

Those who would protest in the streets for civil liberties, for the rights of women and the rights of minorities would appear to be willing to surrender those, for the victory of a man who represents rejection of Mubarak, and implicitly, the United States which backed him.

It may be that fears of an Iranian style Islamist revolution are wrong, it may be that Mr. Morsi is in fact willing to support a secular Egypt, that respects religious and individual freedoms, that fights the scourge of corruption that has long infested that land and takes only token steps towards embracing the long held agenda of an Islamist state.  

However, it is clear that being allowed to vote for a President is not freedom.  Individual rights are not protected when people who do not belong to the dominant religion, live and worship in fear, and when laws are enforced to prohibit people abandoning the dominant religion with the death penalty.

State religion, deep cultural misogyny, suppression of “blasphemous words and deed” and death worship are not compatible with individual freedom (including the rights and equality under the law for women), freedom of religion, freedom of speech and embracing of life.  

Like a train that has escaped one tunnel, had a brief smattering of daylight and may now be about to enter another…

Tax avoidance is not just legal, but moral

The feeding frenzy is out.  In the UK if you legally arrange your personal affairs to minimise your tax liability then the Prime Minister thinks it is immoral.

It all came out when a newspaper reported that comedian Jimmy Carr is apparently using a legal tax-avoidance scheme through Jersey.   Carr's humour is ascerbic and rarely has anything political to say, although it was notable he poked fun at banks and tax avoidance not long ago.

However, David Cameron's jumping on the bandwagon of condemning tax avoidance as immoral is about participating in a radical left-wing campaign that essentially supports more tax.  A campaign pushed by the economic-illiterates at UK Uncut.  That group supports increases in the size of the state, opposes spending cuts and wants more money collected in taxes from businesses and those on relatively high incomes.  Its demand to further infringe on the property rights of businesses and individuals is matched by its supporters invading and occupying private property to "make their point".   However, give them credit for being consistent - these people don't believe in property rights (until you take anything they claim).

As I'm a libertarian, I believe taxation is legalised theft.  It is money taken by force because people engage in behaviour the state has deemed it wants to charge for, such as employment, making a profit, buying certain goods and services and the like.  It isn't a charge for a service provided.  There is no consent involved, there is no relationship whatsoever between taxes paid and services received.

So from my point of view, whatever steps anyone takes to not pay tax are moral, because it is an act of self-defence against the use of force against property.  Plenty of Greek citizens do this presumably because they can and because they don't believe the state spends their money wisely, and they'd be right.

Legally, there is a difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance.  Tax evasion is to take steps to conceal undertaking activities for which tax is due.  Tax avoidance is to structure your affairs to minimise your legal liability for tax, not through concealment or falsifying tax returns, but by any legal steps.

Buying duty free alcohol at the airport is tax avoidance.

Choosing investments that have low or zero tax liability over others, is tax avoidance.

Some instruments for tax avoidance are complex and require professional assistance, which effectively means only people with relatively high tax liabilities can see net savings from paying someone to help them minimise their tax bill.

That's what Jimmy Carr did.

Immoral?  No.  

In fact, if he was illegally evading tax I'd also argue that it is not immoral either.

It is not moral to surrender to the state more money than you have to.   The state, particularly when the bulk of what it spends the money on is to give preferences, privileges and unearned money to other people, is not a supreme moral actor.

Jamie Whyte in the Wall Street Journal explains why Carr acted morally (notwithstanding the mild hypocrisy over his past jokes about tax avoidance).  I'll paraphrase his article below.

The usual vague comment trotted out by statists (those who believe that more state spending is generally a good thing) is that it isn't "fair" and that people must pay a "fair share".  

Whyte makes the split between private and public goods.  

Private goods are those which are consumed personally, such as healthcare, education, pensions, subsidies and the like. To equate taxes for those on any ground of "fairness" is open to serious criticism.  Does Carr consume disproportionately more of these than others?  If not, why should he pay more?  Given his income appear to be many orders above that of the national average, it is fairly certain that he would pay much more than he is ever likely to consume.   The people paying little or no tax, who do consume private goods are the ones where there isn't much "fairness", but the left take it for granted that it's fair for such people to have access to goods and services that they can't afford.  However, that doesn't mean it is fair for Carr to be forced to pay for them.  Why is his existence and success an obligation to pay for others?  The only "fairness" argument is to pay for what you use.

For public goods, such as law and order and defence, the only "fair" approach is for everyone to pay the same.   An argument can be made that the wealthier you are, the more property you have so it is fair to bear a higher burden for the costs of the state to be available to protect it.  In which case, a low flat tax to cover such "public goods" would be "fair".  Income tax of 10% would carry little incentive to engage in tax avoidance or evasion.

Beyond that, Whyte makes the compelling argument that given Carr generates income from people paying for his performance, he must generate a "consumer surplus" (nobody pays to go to his shows to get less than the value of the ticket, but more).  So in fact he is already contributing as a producer.  The snobbish sneers from conservative right and socialist left that he is a mere comedian (the conservatives considering it to not be a proper job in a suit, the socialists thinking it isn't as important as a bureaucrat or a miner) can ignore that, despite his comedy not having universal appeal, he makes people laugh and their lives a little bit better.  They pay for it, so he "produces" (the alternative view is to embrace the wondrous delights of authoritarian regimes where comedy is suppressed).

Even adopting the Marxist view that we all have an obligation to those less fortunate which needs to be enforced by force (which I do not share), making Carr pay more in tax isn't really going to deliver that fairly at all.

The British Government does not redistribute wealth in a way that could be defended robustly as favouring the least advantaged, in actual fact it engages in masses of transfers to people on middle incomes and to people who, by global standards, are relatively well off.  Some of the transfers are:

-  Winter fuel allowance for everyone over 60 regardless of income (a subsidy for energy bills for the elderly.  The Queen would get it if she applied).

-  Child benefit, for every child in a household as long as no one in the household is on the second highest income tax rate (which hits at around £35,000 a year - hardly rich).

-   Housing benefit, which can pay rents for a person or family up to £400 a week (a cap introduced since it was found that one family was getting over £160,000 a year for one property).

Beyond that, if it really was about those most disadvantaged, it would not be most people in Britain.  It would be children in Niger or Haiti or elsewhere.  It would be those without schools, without nutrition, without homes.   However, it isn't.  The claim that it is morally justified by helping the most needy is fatuous because it blatantly isn't true (nor could it be, as neither voters nor politicians would stomach it).

Winding back from all that, taxation exists because people vote for governments who impose them.  Indeed the majority are docile about forcing the minority to pay for what governments bribe them with.  Beyond the core functions of the state, little else that it does contributes to wealth creation, the services it does provide are unlikely to be of a standard or nature that people would choose themselves, and it engages in vast numbers of transfers that are little more than bribes to rent seekers who lobby politicians to get them to loot on their behalf.

Jimmy Carr is both legally and ethically correct to arrange his financial affairs to minimise his liability to this monstrosity.  The budget deficit and public debt are not his fault, it is the fault of politicians and their second-handers who have demanded more and more be spent on them and their pet projects and activities, without being willing to force the public to pay for them (let alone ask).

Tax avoidance is legal, it is moral, and indeed I believe people have a moral duty to themselves and their loved ones to maximise the ways they can avoid tax - for tax takes from YOUR wealth so someone else can spend it, as they see fit. Why would anyone voluntarily, and legally, prefer politicians spending his own money to himself spending it, unless he himself was engulfed in self-hate or believed in his own ineptitude relative to politicians and bureaucrats? 

Who owns YOUR life?

It's a question libertarians pose from time to time, because it is rather fundamental.

It seems silly to most people, for most people consider they are in charge.

Most of the time, in most ways you are.

Indeed, most people in Western liberal democracies accept that adults can choose how they live their lives, in most ways.  That includes freedom of choice of religion (or no religion), and so to live one's life within whatever teachings they wish, as long as it does not involve infringing upon the rights of others.

So why do so many deny voluntary euthanasia?

Is it fear that people will make decisions they will regret?  Well, maybe.  However, surely if a person demands to end his life time and time again, and is absolutely distraught with the indignity and frustration of his life, is the validity of that no longer worth arguing?  Besides.  Who are YOU to say whether someone would regret a decision?  It is, of course, impossible to regret anything when you are dead.

Is it a belief that life is "sacred"? Yes, often.  However, that is a religious belief.  A deeply held one no doubt.  Yet should this apply to the person whose life is actually is?  To whom is it more sacred than the person living the life?  The religious would say "God", but if the person concerned does not believe that, how can this view be forced upon him?

I know religious conservatives have deeply held beliefs, and are not swayed by being confronted by those who want to die, those who have spent months and years day in day out suffering, enduring a life that they despise - in part because, unlike most who seek suicide, they do not have the means to actually end their life painlessly.

However, I'm posting this tragic story because Tony Nicklinson knows only too well who owns his life.  Not him.  

In this interview by the UK's Channel 4 news, he pleads for the right to permit someone else to take his life.  

He has "Locked in Syndrome".  He cannot physically move anything except his eyes.  This man is a father, a husband, once a rugby player, who has had enough after seven years of existing as he does.

Yes, those making such a request should not be those pressured to do so.  Yes those making such a request should not be able to do so on a whim.  Yes those making such a request should have counselling and there be clarity that they are not mentally ill (be careful in how you define that too).  

However, once you get through such safeguards, then get out of the way.

Don't impose your religious beliefs on others.

You do not own their life.

You do not speak for "God" or whatever deity you wish to plead the case for.

Let a peaceful adult who knows what he wants, who declares how much he suffers with his existence, to end his life.

and yes.  This also means opposing the force feeding of an adult with anorexia who wants to die.  The alternative, after all, is the state assaulting an innocent adult.  

You see, those who oppose assisted suicide are not only willing to get in the way of those who haven't the means to take their lives, but also to inflict force upon those who do, as long as the person who does is "ill".  

It comes down to the belief that the state not only should protect people from others, but protect them from themselves - even to use restraint and invasive intimate physical force to do so - even if protection causes them constant and persistent pain and suffering.

Now how can one believe that is right to inflict choices on adults that involve such pain and suffering that if a private citizen initiated it, he or she would face a criminal charge and likely lengthy prison sentence?

Moreover, if you do resist allowing people to take their own lives, when they are consenting intelligent adults, in obvious ongoing chronic distress, why do you think it is your right to do so? 

For if you simply got out of the way, then all these people would be guilty of is offending you and possibly, your conception of a deity.

You do not have a right to not be offended, and certainly you do not have the right to prevent the offence of a deity.

So what would YOU say to Mr Nicklinson as he sits only able to communicate by the movement of his eyeballs, weeping?  If YOU think his life is worth more than he does, what will YOU do to prove it?  Will you spend day after day, week after week, month after month, sitting with him, with his existence, unable to walk, talk, gesticulate, move, manage your ablutions, wash yourself, dress yourself, change the channel on the TV, itch, scratch, hug or kiss your loved ones?   Will you tell him every day as he looks into your eyes that he ought to keep going on like this, whereas those with the physical means can choose to terminate their lives?

Go on - prove your compassion isn't just words.  Share in his life in a way that will make a difference, or leave this peaceful suffering man alone to make his own choices.

He's not asking you to kill him, he's just asking you to let him choose to die when and how he wants.

It's his life, not yours - and as he does not (and cannot) own your life, then stop trying to own his for your conscience or because of your own belief system. 

Myths of UK economic policy

Now I could have said this myself, but I don't need do, because Liberal Democrat blogger, Stephen Tall, has done it for me.  Now that's someone who is no libertarian, and ought to get a wider constituency that those laissez-faire capitalists who are fed up with the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition's pathetic attempt at austerity and Labour's dishonest attempt to present itself as the saviour.

What are the myths?

1.  UK public spending is reducing:  In nominal terms it is rising by 8% over the term of this government, in real terms cut by 3%!  Any large business that couldn't extract 3% savings out of five years of operations would be an abysmal performer.  Moreover, in real terms spending in the last year of this term of government will be higher than every year of the Blair/Brown government except the last year.   Big swingeing cuts? Hardly.

2.   Public debt is being reduced:  No.  You see you can't do that unless you run a budget surplus, and that isn't happening or going to happen in this term.  Public debt as a proportion of GDP will be rising by 8% during the term of this Parliament, and wont be dropping in nominal or real terms.  

3.   Labour's approach would have made a big difference:  No.  Ernst & Young modelled the difference, and calculated it would have meant the economy growing on average 0.2% more across three years.  Each additional job would have cost £370,000 in debt (jobs with average income of a tenth of that).

4.   The Obama Administration has taken a different approach which has paid off:  No.  The Obama Administration after the 2010 congressional elections, cut federal spending by 0.9% in real terms.  Somewhat equivalent to the UK government.  Barely austerity at all for both, but US tax levels remain far lower than the UK's.  That's a difference Labour and other leftwing opponents ignore.

5.  There is a magic easy alternative solution:  Both recent UK governments have been Keynesian.  Both dropped interest rates to near zero levels, both printed more money,  both engaged in deficit spending. 

Now I'd argue there are solutions, and that taking a more aggressive stance to cutting the deficit by cutting spending, NOT increasing taxes (which has been about a third of the strategy), would have cut wasteful wealth destroying spending, helped keep the growth of the state interest bill under control, stopped the state competing with the private sector for investment, and meant more money would remain in private hands.  

However, no party in the UK offers that solution as of yet.  You might wonder quite why a government, that is now quite unpopular, didn't just take the hard medicine at the start - rather than pretend to do so, given people think it has already, and it hasn't worked.

Three elections - freedom's not the winner

Greece

I've never seen so much televised election coverage for a Greek election, with BBC News, Sky News and CNN all providing dedicated coverage yesterday.  This was an election about remaining in the Euro - Greek voters, more often than not, wanted to play it safe.

The Greek election result is clear - a country divided amongst those who are scared of losing their savings in Euros to those who want to demand other country's taxpayers support a bloated socialist state, and then a who lot of others who variously want either the government to take over and steal from the rich, steal from the foreigners, or the 1.59% who actually want less government.

So for now, Greece will live off of the back of hundreds of billions of Euros of money from taxpayers in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Estonia, Slovakia and other solvent parts of the Eurozone, and will attempt to survive with some spending cuts and tax rises - although the former wont be enough, and the latter will choke off the economy even more.  The optimist in me hopes that Greece can actually cut its deficit, balance its budget, open its economy, cut costs and move forward.  However, I suspect Greece will be racked with strikes, mass protests and continued exodus of the best and brightest, whilst the coalition between the two parties that led Greece for 30 years into this mess in the first place fractures as the vested interests both have protected fight for their cut of the borrowed bankrupt pie.

I can only hope that since New Democracy now includes a few elements in favour of less government and not increasing taxes, that the concessions that this government can get from Germany are to not increase taxes more.  That at least will stop choking the private sector more (as cutting government spending is not the same as increasing taxes).   Meanwhile the far left reality evaders, whose xenophobia about foreign capital doesn't extend to foreign taxpayers propping up socialist states, will continue to portray all of this as some grand conspiracy to make foreign bankers rich.  Those "foreign bankers" (Golden Dawn would be proud of that rhetoric) took a 110 billion write off of Greek debt so far, meanwhile foreign taxpayers have effectively restructured most of Greece's private debt into new lower interest rate loans.   However, Syriza and the leftwing xenophobic haters of capitalism just blank this out - and none have any answer as to how to bridge the gap between the Greek government's spending and its tax receipts.   The newly elected Greek government must close that gap, or will face yet another judgment in a couple of years.   The only way it might even hope to do that, and rescue the economy, is to let the private sector flourish by getting out of the way (and doing its proper job when it is expected to do so).

France

French voters have snubbed Sarkozy's party and have voted for the fancy funny land of the Socialists. The party that helped decimate the French stockmarket and chase businesses away when it was last in power in the early 1980s (as Francois Mitterand - the man who instigated the Rainbow Warrior bombing - sought to nationalise major businesses).   France will now either follow the path of Greece, in strangling its already fairly stagnant economy some more, chasing its best and brightest to London, some more, or will actually face reality and introduce reforms that hitherto were too hard for the vain git Sarkozy to introduce.

France is full of myths, one is its great manufacturing sector - which as a proportion of GDP is no greater than the UK's - another it how its mixed economy staved off the worst of the financial crisis - when in fact France has parts of its economy (agriculture and the space sectors in particular) largely propped up by EU subsidies.  

Higher taxes, more regulation to protect those already in jobs at the expense of those without them, and a head in the sand attitude to fiscal balance, will help ensure France continues to lose competitiveness relative to Germany and the world.  It is probably a decade away from its final decisive crisis, as France's generous welfare state and corporatist monstrosity of an economic policy finally collapses in on its own contradictions.  Not much liberte, not so much fraternite, and perhaps egalite of poverty.

Egypt

How's this for a choice?  Want an Islamist President who has vowed to respect other religions, the rights of women and the new freedoms Egyptians went on the streets for?  Or do you want a President from the old guard, the old corrupt militarist regime that kept a lid on freedom of speech and ensured that its cronies were wealthy and comfortable?  Half of all Egyptians chose neither.  It appears that a narrow majority of the rest chose Islamism.

Some on the left in the West who rail in favour of womens' rights, secularism, tolerance, liberal values, peace for homosexuals and the like will celebrate this, to their shame.  Others will share the concern with those of us elsewhere on the political spectrum.

The overriding of the parliamentary election by the judiciary may be worrying, but if the Islamist has won the Presidential election, it may give some impetus for others to vote for a new Parliament that isn't so dominated.

However, I am not hopeful.  The simple reality is that democracy in Egypt is more likely than not to create a state run by those who think religion and state are the one and the same, who hold views of women (let alone gay people) as being subordinate and whose views on Jews, Christians and others who don't hold their religion are less than flattering.   

The result wont be clear until Thursday, but let's be clear - it wont mean more freedom for people in Egypt.

Greek voters do have rational choices - but they reject them (UPDATED)

The two main incumbent parties in Greece, although both supporting the necessary bailout plan, are both institutions that have led the country down a path of corruption, fiscal incontinence and reality denial for too long.  Beyond them, the Greek Parliament is polluted by the likes of Marxists who believe business should all be owned by the state, and fascists who preach bigotry and racism with their faux pride and proto-violent approach to government.

However, there are parties that can make a difference:

- The Liberal Alliance advocates the state withdrawing from business, abolishing permanent employment in the state sector, privatisation and replacement of the state pension with a privatised pension system, along with tax cuts. 

-  The Drasi party supports cutting government spending and free market reforms.

Both parties ran on a single platform in the May 2012 election, but only gained 1.8% of the vote.  This time they are running with the "Recreate Greece" party which is said to share a similar approach to economic policy although being more centrist.  The hope is that the combined support of all three will cross the 3% threshold for Parliamentary representation.

Democratic Alliance would have been another option.  It supports cutting the civil service by a third, abolishing permanent tenure and introducing performance pay.  It also seeks major tax cuts with a flat tax of 20% and negative income tax to replace welfare.   However, it has aligned itself with the incumbent New Democracy Party (the non-socialist one).  Will it have enough influence to make a real difference?  I doubt it.

So the best option appears to be the "Recreate Greece - Action – Liberal Alliance". 

Together they would embrace real austerity that does not include raising taxes, but does include cutting the state down to a size that is affordable, it does mean not scrapping the Euro in favour of a junk currency and means opening up the Greek economy to be more competitive and dynamic.

The two major incumbents support more taxes, the Syriza party supports putting its head in the sand and hoping that Greece doesn't go bankrupt.

In the meantime, wise Greek citizens will be emptying their bank accounts in Greek banks.  Opening German, French and British ones, and depositing their Euros as fast as they can, and holding onto just enough cash necessary to function.   Good luck to them all.

UPDATE:  It looks like a binary choice between New Democracy (in favour of the bailout package including spending cuts, privatisation AND unfortunately tax rises) and the Green Party like Syriza Party which essentially expects to blackmail Germany into paying for its retention of socialist economics.   New Democracy retains a chance Greece remains in the Euro, Syriza is highly likely to see a complete default in late July if it can't convince the Germans to prop them up.

It is entirely plausible that neither could form a government.

That's why it remains the most principled choice to back the Liberal Alliance, for only it will support both less spending and lower taxes.  New Democracy may be less worse than Syriza, but if economic growth matters to anyone in Greece, they can't get it voting for for those who support higher taxes (let alone a bunch of reformed communists).

No Asset Purchases without a referendum

If the parties that lost the last election can demand that the Government seek an additional electoral mandate to implement the policies National stood on in its 2011 manifesto, then surely the same applies in reverse.

Every time the state buys something with taxpayers' money, it should ask permission.

Labour should have held a referendum on buying buy Air New Zealand, buying the Auckland railway network then buying the national rail network then buying TranzRail. 

If the state should gain permission when it sells assets, it should also seek it when it buys them.

Somehow, I doubt the idea will gain traction with Labour and the Greens, because to them when they spend taxpayers money, acquire property for the state - it is "good" for it is for "everyone".

In other words, the state can always accumulate more and more property with your money, but it daren't dispose of any of it.   However, none of that is really a surprise is it?

Greeks withdrawing cash

If anything demonstrates how far we are all removed from free market capitalism and an economic system based entirely on private property rights, one need only look to see the power the state has on the resource most people have as a medium of exchange and storage of value - money.

With speculation rising about the next Greek government quite possibly being led by a quasi-communist who thinks he can call the bluff of Eurozone governments in demanding that they lend the Greek government more money it can't pay back (having already received bailouts worth nearly a quarter a trillion Euro), fear is that the bluff wont work and Greece will be cast adrift, with the Greek government unable to pay its bloated public sector, unable to pay interest on its debt and pushed out of the Eurozone.

With all of that goes any talk of European solidarity, as quite rightly, Germans, Austrians, Dutch, Slovaks, Estonians and the like say no to their government funding Greece's fiscal incontinence, so Greece finds a new way to pay its bills - by printing worthless banknotes likely to be called a New Drachma.

What does the average Greek citizen do then?  Well, Greek banks get all their assets and liabilities redenominated into this junk currency, so the savings of Greek people get utterly destroyed, because of the Greek government.  Greek companies with debts with foreign banks in Euros face bankruptcy as they will be unable to pay debts using the junk currency.  

Many Greeks will seek to flee to live and work in the rest of the EU.

Except the EU has other ideas.  Greeks will be cast asunder, not only having their savings plundered and destroyed by their government, but having their fellow EU partners treating them as foreigners, not worthy of being able to live and work in other Member States.   The grand political project would be over as far as Greece is concerned.  This shameful treatment of people unfortunately stuck in a country that the EU embraced, subsidised and treated fraternally for decades, shows the real limits of the openness of the EU - when the going gets tough, they turn their back on you.

So Greeks are preparing.  With 800 million Euro exiting Greek bank accounts today, this will only accelerate.  Once they have their cash, they will deposit in foreign banks, convert it to gold or silver, or simply stuff it under the mattress.

For you see when it comes down to it, a fiat currency isn't a store of any real value if those who issued it declare it to no longer be so - for it is as easy to destroy that which you printed out of thin air.

For all the SYRIZA party is offering Greece is the promise that all can be made better out of the thin air of socialist economics.

UPDATE:  A former Socialist Defence Minister of Greece is facing charges of money laundering and is facing ongoing investigation for tax dodging.   Is it any surprise that so many Greek citizens actively avoid tax when then is corruption at the highest levels by those who want to spend their money, but make sure they use the state to enrich themselves?  Shame the political choices of Greeks are largely more of the same.