The Sydney Morning Herald has reported that the Australian Federal Government is considering laws banning unauthorised photo taking in public places and publication of said photos. This is to cover cases of pedophiles taking what would otherwise be perfectly innocent photos of children at the beach or in the playground, and then publishing them on websites - a kind of legal voyeurism which creeps people out. Well it is creepy, but what is really going on here?
Nanny state is rearing her ugly head again - ready to stop all well meaning good people from taking photos in public places which may or may not include children - without permission from the parents. What if parents do this with their own children? (after all a fair proportion of child molestation cases involve relatives). One approach is commonsense - if you see someone creepy taking photos of your kids - tell them to fuck off, take your own photos of them. It also reflects the tragedy of the commons - in that publicly owned space cannot set limits on who goes there - I'm not suggesting gates around beaches and parks necessarily, but if such places WERE privately owned - the owner could set rules about taking photos, and the Police could intervene if someone breaks them, because then it would be trespassing. Private parks exist in the US, UK and other countries.
One of the problems of any laws on this are that is presumably this also covers TVNZ when it has a reporter on Lambton Quay at 4pm in the afternoon when countless school kids walk past – otherwise the defence will be “I was photographing the park, the children happened to be in it”.
I know what this is trying to do – people feel uncomfortable about images taken in public places when they are published. I, like countless others, have numerous photos of strangers that happen to be in photos of places I have photographed. There are photos of me as a child that my parents took in playgrounds, with other children there.
However, if anyone wants to understand why I fight rigorously against nanny state – this is one example. Yes there are perverted (mostly) men who masturbate about children – there always will be – unless we adopt a Taliban type approach and cover children in burkhas, this will happen. Most will never do more than that – in fact there are people who masturbate about strangers every day, including those they photograph. Ah, you say, but photographing children is creepy – no it is not. The only thing that is creepy is the motive. There are plenty of parents, relatives, caregivers who happily photograph the kids they are responsible for, or looking after, with their friends, and the motive is - 99% of the time – not sexual. You’ll never know when it is. There are strangers, photographers, journalists who will take photographs which include children, and again, it wont be sexual – but occasionally it is. When it is, 9 times out of 10 you will never know – and most importantly, the child is not harmed, anymore than it is harmed because someone has an image in their mind. See a photograph (not including child pornography here) of a child will to almost everyone be that – it wont have any consequence, and wont be sexual. However it will be to a pedophile. Fetishes are another example – there are countless people into all sorts of bizarre fetishes that would otherwise be seen as nonchalant – women holding balloons, white socks, knee high boots, watching people eat – all sorts of everyday things that if photographed mean nothing to anyone, except the fetishist. Frankly if everyone knew everyday everyone who thought something sexual about them, many times they would be horrified (though often intrigued!).
The line is crossed when the pedophile either acts on his desires upon a child, or threatens to – that is where the law steps in. The law simply cannot tell patrol thought crimes – though it often tries.
Even the Swiss are in on the act, with the Society of Saint Nicholas banning children hopping on Santas laps at Christmas time. This is incredibly sad. I sat on several Santa Claus laps when I was little, I don't recall Santa offering me some "special gift" from his pants, or trying to find one in mine, but it was special - now the society is reflecting fears of parents. What evidence is there that Santa Clauses are perverts? Except of course for workplace Christmas party ones - where it is the perfect excuse to get women to sit on your lap (I was work Santa for four years in a row and it paid off very well one year, and I am going to miss it this year!).
This sort of nonsense needs to end – just like the ban on parents videoing their children in a play or at the pool. Yes there are perverts out there, and yes a tiny minority hurt kids – but until they act or threaten to act to hurt the child, the law should not step in, and it certainly should not ban what are otherwise harmless activities. Pedophiles probably record kids talking too, they probably draw them and probably buy kids clothes because they turn them on – so are we going to ban everyone doing those things without permission too?
The one thing that is most ignored in all of this is that technology is also meaning that children, or more particularly adolescents also take their own photos, of each other - clothed and unclothed, and they distribute them. Not smart perhaps, but it happens - so do you ban 14yos taking digital photos of each other dressing up, or in bedrooms? Again, the law is really not the solution, it is just a tool.
17 November 2005
08 November 2005
Rod Donald
I was at Heathrow Airport checking my email before flying to San Francisco when I read the news. For all of the profound political differences I had with the man, I heard much more about him from a good friend of mine, who was his friend - who also had political differences. For me, Rod Donald was perhaps the brain of the Green Party - he carried more intellectual grunt than any of the others, and was a warm individual who liked a drink and enjoyed life. He was not one of the joyless hate filled mongers of nihilism that spme on the political spectrum are.
I will add more later, but he is a loss, as a human being, a warm character and someone that could be debated with - using minds. That, I respect.
I will add more later, but he is a loss, as a human being, a warm character and someone that could be debated with - using minds. That, I respect.
05 November 2005
Transmission Gully - The Real Story - Part 5
Having summarised the history up till now and the debate, this is my final post on the Transmission Gully story. The situation today is that 4500 submissions have been sent to the Greater Wellington Regional Council on the draft Western Corridor plan - I bet most are asking for money that hasn't been confiscated from people yet - to be spent on Transmission Gully. That is the flipside from the consultation on the Wellington Inner City Bypass, when plenty all wanted a road not to be built - even though the money from road users was there and it is a worthwhile project. Following that consultation, Transit and the Greater Wellington Regional Council will produce a final Western Corridor Plan, for endorsement or revision by the Transit New Zealand Board and the Wellington Regional Land Transport Committee - good luck to them both! There is a report back to Cabinet on whether there is an agreed Corridor Plan in order to access the $405 million additional funding I have mentioned in this posting - it requires agreement on a plan and agreement on how to pursue consenting for any upgrade on the current highway. The big issue is whether Cullen throws more general tax money at Wellington for Transmission Gully, whether Wellington can agree on a plan and what Transit's board thinks. This final major posting attempts to show why Transmission Gully is a lousy idea - not because I'm a Green, I like roads, but because it is a waste of money.
What should happen?
If Transmission Gully was around the same cost as the coastal upgrade, I would argue for my Option 3 in my previous post. However, the study and the peer review indicate that the difference in cost between the coastal option and Transmission Gully is around $250 million - $300 million. That is money I’d like to see going to other things.
The Transmission Gully advocates say it must be built regardless of cost – which Fulton Hogan and other construction contractors must be thrilled about, along with property owners. Why not pay all property owners $1 million minimum? Why not pay for all construction workers for the road to have annual first class holidays around the world and new Ferraris? After all – “bugger the cost”. Those examples seem extreme, but what IS the difference? What if that $250 million or so went on hospitals, or schools instead of a more expensive road to do the same job as a cheaper one?
The environmental arguments are somewhat specious once you get rid of the NIMBY syndrome. In my view, people who live on Mana Esplanade bought into their environment – they chose to live on State Highway 1 and now want to have their suburb exempt from that – which of course would not happen anyway, as 40% of the traffic would remain on the current route.
None of these areas have endangered species along them nor have any great natural significance – you’ll notice that the Greens or other environmental groups are on the side of the Gullites.
The first priorities for the part of the corridor between Paremata and Mackays Crossing (I take for granted that the other ends have higher needs) should be:
1. Build the median barrier from Pukerua Bay to Paekakariki: I believe Transit is pursuing this as fast as it can. I believe it is at the design stage and will be seeking consents to widen the road sufficiently for this to happen, at a relatively modest $16 million. This will significantly improve safety and reliability along the route.
2. Construct some sort of flyover/interchange at Paekakariki: Access to and from Paekakariki is far from safe, and something akin to a flyover over the current intersection for north-south traffic would help. The claims that Paekakariki Hill Rd would need $400 million spent on it as a result are nonsense, as Porirua City Council only needs to maintain it and manage it, not upgrade it to a 100 km/h highway!
3. Bypass Pukerua Bay: This is easy and should be built either to 2-lanes or 4-lanes, it will relieve that community, ease the queuing going north (as there is some loss of traffic at Pukerua Bay) and leave the most difficult bit till last.
4. Start pursuing options for routes for a Mana Bypass: Although the Mana upgrade that is now open seems to be working well and ensuring traffic flows reasonably smoothly – in the longer term Mana should be bypassed, which means some land around the Ngatitoa Domain would need to be used. The process for sorting this out will be lengthy, so should start as soon as it can.
Transmission Gully as a route can be retained as a long term option, but there is no need for 6-lanes between Wellington and Kapiti – 4-lanes is enough. Transmission Gully will make it 6-lanes, until Tawa when it becomes 4-lanes again!
The coastal 4-laning can be sought and eventually built, but is hardly the top priority. What has come over far too many people is a hysteria about congestion and road closures that nobody would say is worth spend $1.1 billion to fix. That is over $7000 for every Wellington household.
Government funding offer
As the final part of this saga up to now, Cabinet agreed earlier this year to two Crown contributions to a solution on the Western Corridor over the next ten to twelve years. These are:
1. $225 million to fund public transport and roading improvements along the entire Western Corridor (this can include Petone-Grenada, additional stages of the Kapiti Western Link Road, essential upgrades of the current route, and the modest rail upgrade plan). This funding is unconditional, and is to fund the highest priority parts of the Corridor.
2. $405 million to fund a solution for the access and congestion issues on State Highway 1 between Linden and Mackays Crossing. This is a contribution towards either the coastal route or Transmission Gully. It will not fully fund either – the only catch is that parts of the coastal route could be built (and benefits from them arise) and it is likely that other parts could be liable to get standard National Land Transport Fund funding anyway in the future.
A total of $885 million of taxpayers money for Wellington transport on top of the dedicated funding from road user charges and petrol tax - better than Auckland on a per capita basis!
Conclusion
The case for Transmission Gully does not stack up because:
1. It costs too much : At $1.1 billion it is a staggering amount of money, equivalent to all of the other conceivable roading projects that could be built in Wellington combined – it is worth more than all of the petrol tax collected in Wellington in 7 years, including all of the money spent on road maintenance and all other projects. Assuming the coastal route was not built, the next most expensive project proposed in the next ten or so years is the Petone-Grenada link road at $180 million – even a second Mt Victoria Tunnel and 4-lanes out to the airport would be around $250 million – the cost difference between Transmission Gully and the coastal route.
2. To build it would mean a subsidy to road users: To fund Transmission Gully would mean non-road users paying for a road – this should offend all supporters of user pays and the free market, as much as it should offend the Greens. The government has pledged to grant Wellington $885 million of taxpayers money for land transport in the next ten years. This is more than equal to all of the petrol tax paid in the Wellington region to the Crown Account – so essentially matches the National policy (for Wellington at least) for road funding. As Transmission Gully cannot be funded by tolls (only pays for less than 10%) and all the funding from petrol tax wont fund it either, then either general taxpayers have to fund a road to the capital or ratepayers do. Since the loudest councils on this (Porirua and Kapiti) are very silent when they are asked to ask their ratepayers for a contribution, the calls for Transmission Gully are piggies at the trough – Peter Dunne is seeking a porkbarrel, as is Porirua and Kapiti. This nonsense was supposed to have gone with Muldoon – it should remain in the past. The people living in Mana/Plimmerton who want others to pay for it are no surprise, but why should other people be made to pay for their prospective property value increases?
3. Transmission Gully is a bad investment: It doesn’t stack up on economic efficiency grounds. It has a benefit cost ratio of, at best 0.5:1, so it is like putting $1.1 billion in the bank and coming back 25 years later and finding only $550 million left – like Think Big. Not only would non-road users have to pay for it, but it wouldn’t even generate net economic benefits for the nation. It doesn’t even pay its costs. ACT and National, which rightly condemn poor investment in rail projects that are just as bad, can’t see a bad road when it stares them in the face. Losing $550 million in national wealth is an outrage, when there are hundreds of millions of dollars of roading projects elsewhere in New Zealand that generate positive returns. Simple measures like eliminating all traffic lights on Highway 2 from Wellington to Upper Hutt could save time and accidents, a second Mt Victoria Tunnel would all be positive investments. Anyone advocating a negative investment is simply plain stupid – why doesn’t everyone pay for some road users and property owners to benefit to half the extent of the cost.
4. The problems of the current route can be solved by other cheaper means: The reasons Transmission Gully is advocated are:
- Accidents along the coastal highway (not fixed just reduced in number by the Gully- largely fixed by a median barrier);
- Congestion at Mana (fixed, for now, by the now open upgrade – can be fixed longer term by a bypass at Mana for 20% of the cost of the Gully);
- Occasional road closures (usually due to accidents, largely fixed above. The very rare slip is hardly a reason to spend $250 million on insurance – and 4-laning the current road should enable it to remain open with at least one lane I each direction, even if part of the lanes are blocked.
Other congestion is less serious than many other locations in Wellington (e.g. Ngauranga, Mt Victoria Tunnel). For $220 million Mana can eventually be bypassed, and Pukerua Bay bypassed for $70 million. The coastal section does not need 4-laning for some years as congestion will not be severe enough to justify it, but the 4-laning of it will provide a far more reliable route than Transmission Gully – the second route mantra comes at a $250-$300 million premium. Why do something for quarter of a billion more than you need to?
5. The coastal route can be upgraded in stages: Transmission Gully is only worth building as one route, which would take five years construction and around four years pre-construction. It requires an enormous amount of funding and enormous construction effort for one project, once, with all the costs that the equipment would present for just one project (it would sit around largely useless for years after that or need to be moved to multiple locations to get used on smaller contracts). The coastal upgrade can be built in stages and the benefits realised progressively. The so-called disruption is what happens with all road projects – Transmission Gully would disrupt the motorway south of Porirua and the highway north of Paekakariki, the inner city bypass disrupts central Wellington. Auckland’s central motorway junction (spaghetti junction) is having several new ramps and lanes installed – on the busiest part of the roading network, and this is managed to avoid worsening peak congestion, and undertaking much work at night. Within 10 years, there could be a Pukerua Bay Bypass and the coastal 4-laning would be finished in year 11 along with a Paekakariki flyover. All that is left is a bypass at Mana. Transmission Gully would not be finished for 15 years.
6. An alternative route is unnecessary: The Hutt Valley has no realistic alternative route to Wellington if the Hutt motorway is closed. Auckland’s North Shore does not have one to Auckland if the Auckland Harbour Bridge is closed, the Wairarapa does not if the Rimutaka Hill Road is closed. New Zealand cannot afford to build parallel routes for the sake of it. Paekakariki Hill Road is a viable light vehicle alternative, and 4-laning (with a median barrier on) the coastal route will not only avoid most accidents which cause closures, but provide ample room for diverting traffic around incidents (which are unlikely to block 4-lanes with shoulders).
If Transmission Gully was around the same cost as the coastal upgrade, I would argue for my Option 3 in my previous post. However, the study and the peer review indicate that the difference in cost between the coastal option and Transmission Gully is around $250 million - $300 million. That is money I’d like to see going to other things.
The Transmission Gully advocates say it must be built regardless of cost – which Fulton Hogan and other construction contractors must be thrilled about, along with property owners. Why not pay all property owners $1 million minimum? Why not pay for all construction workers for the road to have annual first class holidays around the world and new Ferraris? After all – “bugger the cost”. Those examples seem extreme, but what IS the difference? What if that $250 million or so went on hospitals, or schools instead of a more expensive road to do the same job as a cheaper one?
The environmental arguments are somewhat specious once you get rid of the NIMBY syndrome. In my view, people who live on Mana Esplanade bought into their environment – they chose to live on State Highway 1 and now want to have their suburb exempt from that – which of course would not happen anyway, as 40% of the traffic would remain on the current route.
None of these areas have endangered species along them nor have any great natural significance – you’ll notice that the Greens or other environmental groups are on the side of the Gullites.
The first priorities for the part of the corridor between Paremata and Mackays Crossing (I take for granted that the other ends have higher needs) should be:
1. Build the median barrier from Pukerua Bay to Paekakariki: I believe Transit is pursuing this as fast as it can. I believe it is at the design stage and will be seeking consents to widen the road sufficiently for this to happen, at a relatively modest $16 million. This will significantly improve safety and reliability along the route.
2. Construct some sort of flyover/interchange at Paekakariki: Access to and from Paekakariki is far from safe, and something akin to a flyover over the current intersection for north-south traffic would help. The claims that Paekakariki Hill Rd would need $400 million spent on it as a result are nonsense, as Porirua City Council only needs to maintain it and manage it, not upgrade it to a 100 km/h highway!
3. Bypass Pukerua Bay: This is easy and should be built either to 2-lanes or 4-lanes, it will relieve that community, ease the queuing going north (as there is some loss of traffic at Pukerua Bay) and leave the most difficult bit till last.
4. Start pursuing options for routes for a Mana Bypass: Although the Mana upgrade that is now open seems to be working well and ensuring traffic flows reasonably smoothly – in the longer term Mana should be bypassed, which means some land around the Ngatitoa Domain would need to be used. The process for sorting this out will be lengthy, so should start as soon as it can.
Transmission Gully as a route can be retained as a long term option, but there is no need for 6-lanes between Wellington and Kapiti – 4-lanes is enough. Transmission Gully will make it 6-lanes, until Tawa when it becomes 4-lanes again!
The coastal 4-laning can be sought and eventually built, but is hardly the top priority. What has come over far too many people is a hysteria about congestion and road closures that nobody would say is worth spend $1.1 billion to fix. That is over $7000 for every Wellington household.
Government funding offer
As the final part of this saga up to now, Cabinet agreed earlier this year to two Crown contributions to a solution on the Western Corridor over the next ten to twelve years. These are:
1. $225 million to fund public transport and roading improvements along the entire Western Corridor (this can include Petone-Grenada, additional stages of the Kapiti Western Link Road, essential upgrades of the current route, and the modest rail upgrade plan). This funding is unconditional, and is to fund the highest priority parts of the Corridor.
2. $405 million to fund a solution for the access and congestion issues on State Highway 1 between Linden and Mackays Crossing. This is a contribution towards either the coastal route or Transmission Gully. It will not fully fund either – the only catch is that parts of the coastal route could be built (and benefits from them arise) and it is likely that other parts could be liable to get standard National Land Transport Fund funding anyway in the future.
A total of $885 million of taxpayers money for Wellington transport on top of the dedicated funding from road user charges and petrol tax - better than Auckland on a per capita basis!
Conclusion
The case for Transmission Gully does not stack up because:
1. It costs too much : At $1.1 billion it is a staggering amount of money, equivalent to all of the other conceivable roading projects that could be built in Wellington combined – it is worth more than all of the petrol tax collected in Wellington in 7 years, including all of the money spent on road maintenance and all other projects. Assuming the coastal route was not built, the next most expensive project proposed in the next ten or so years is the Petone-Grenada link road at $180 million – even a second Mt Victoria Tunnel and 4-lanes out to the airport would be around $250 million – the cost difference between Transmission Gully and the coastal route.
2. To build it would mean a subsidy to road users: To fund Transmission Gully would mean non-road users paying for a road – this should offend all supporters of user pays and the free market, as much as it should offend the Greens. The government has pledged to grant Wellington $885 million of taxpayers money for land transport in the next ten years. This is more than equal to all of the petrol tax paid in the Wellington region to the Crown Account – so essentially matches the National policy (for Wellington at least) for road funding. As Transmission Gully cannot be funded by tolls (only pays for less than 10%) and all the funding from petrol tax wont fund it either, then either general taxpayers have to fund a road to the capital or ratepayers do. Since the loudest councils on this (Porirua and Kapiti) are very silent when they are asked to ask their ratepayers for a contribution, the calls for Transmission Gully are piggies at the trough – Peter Dunne is seeking a porkbarrel, as is Porirua and Kapiti. This nonsense was supposed to have gone with Muldoon – it should remain in the past. The people living in Mana/Plimmerton who want others to pay for it are no surprise, but why should other people be made to pay for their prospective property value increases?
3. Transmission Gully is a bad investment: It doesn’t stack up on economic efficiency grounds. It has a benefit cost ratio of, at best 0.5:1, so it is like putting $1.1 billion in the bank and coming back 25 years later and finding only $550 million left – like Think Big. Not only would non-road users have to pay for it, but it wouldn’t even generate net economic benefits for the nation. It doesn’t even pay its costs. ACT and National, which rightly condemn poor investment in rail projects that are just as bad, can’t see a bad road when it stares them in the face. Losing $550 million in national wealth is an outrage, when there are hundreds of millions of dollars of roading projects elsewhere in New Zealand that generate positive returns. Simple measures like eliminating all traffic lights on Highway 2 from Wellington to Upper Hutt could save time and accidents, a second Mt Victoria Tunnel would all be positive investments. Anyone advocating a negative investment is simply plain stupid – why doesn’t everyone pay for some road users and property owners to benefit to half the extent of the cost.
4. The problems of the current route can be solved by other cheaper means: The reasons Transmission Gully is advocated are:
- Accidents along the coastal highway (not fixed just reduced in number by the Gully- largely fixed by a median barrier);
- Congestion at Mana (fixed, for now, by the now open upgrade – can be fixed longer term by a bypass at Mana for 20% of the cost of the Gully);
- Occasional road closures (usually due to accidents, largely fixed above. The very rare slip is hardly a reason to spend $250 million on insurance – and 4-laning the current road should enable it to remain open with at least one lane I each direction, even if part of the lanes are blocked.
Other congestion is less serious than many other locations in Wellington (e.g. Ngauranga, Mt Victoria Tunnel). For $220 million Mana can eventually be bypassed, and Pukerua Bay bypassed for $70 million. The coastal section does not need 4-laning for some years as congestion will not be severe enough to justify it, but the 4-laning of it will provide a far more reliable route than Transmission Gully – the second route mantra comes at a $250-$300 million premium. Why do something for quarter of a billion more than you need to?
5. The coastal route can be upgraded in stages: Transmission Gully is only worth building as one route, which would take five years construction and around four years pre-construction. It requires an enormous amount of funding and enormous construction effort for one project, once, with all the costs that the equipment would present for just one project (it would sit around largely useless for years after that or need to be moved to multiple locations to get used on smaller contracts). The coastal upgrade can be built in stages and the benefits realised progressively. The so-called disruption is what happens with all road projects – Transmission Gully would disrupt the motorway south of Porirua and the highway north of Paekakariki, the inner city bypass disrupts central Wellington. Auckland’s central motorway junction (spaghetti junction) is having several new ramps and lanes installed – on the busiest part of the roading network, and this is managed to avoid worsening peak congestion, and undertaking much work at night. Within 10 years, there could be a Pukerua Bay Bypass and the coastal 4-laning would be finished in year 11 along with a Paekakariki flyover. All that is left is a bypass at Mana. Transmission Gully would not be finished for 15 years.
6. An alternative route is unnecessary: The Hutt Valley has no realistic alternative route to Wellington if the Hutt motorway is closed. Auckland’s North Shore does not have one to Auckland if the Auckland Harbour Bridge is closed, the Wairarapa does not if the Rimutaka Hill Road is closed. New Zealand cannot afford to build parallel routes for the sake of it. Paekakariki Hill Road is a viable light vehicle alternative, and 4-laning (with a median barrier on) the coastal route will not only avoid most accidents which cause closures, but provide ample room for diverting traffic around incidents (which are unlikely to block 4-lanes with shoulders).
In addition, in the longer term there is likely to be some sort of road pricing to replace petrol tax - differentiating by time of day and location, which means congested roads cost more to use. Demand management, such as airlines, hotels and phone companies use to get people to use networks at off peak times and charge a premium at busiest times, will be the norm. Under that environment, people may think very carefully indeed before using scarce road space at peak times to commute to work. That is when very large expensive roads start to look rather redundant and you concentrate road investment on making what you have safer and more efficient (e.g. removing traffic light controlled intersections, additional lanes, realignments). That is a far more efficient approach.
The Transit New Zealand Board and the Wellington Regional Land Transport Committee should drop Transmission Gully for the reasons I have outlined above. ACT and National MPs should come to their senses with economic rationalism, and stop advocating a mindless Think Big Roading project, and advocate user pays - the pork barrelling they are pursuing should be above them. Peter Dunne should give it a rest and stop advocating for a road that will do nothing for his local constituents (when Petone-Grenada will), and Dr Cullen should stay out of it.
Transmission Gully is a bad project which needs consigning to the proverbial dustbin of history, someone needs the courage to put it to sleep.
03 November 2005
Transmission Gully - The Real Story - Part 4
In Part 3 I summarised the funding that Transmission Gully cost far more than previously estimated and how Transit and the Wellington Regional Council responded to that – by calling for a more comprehensive study into transport along the corridor. I also summarised the government’s additional funding for Wellington transport, without the Western Corridor. In this part I go through the key study findings and what it really means. As submissions on the draft Western Corridor Plan are due in by Friday 4 November, I thought I better accelerate these posts in case anyone wants to make a submission. Details on the study are available at the Greater Wellington Regional Council website for the project
The Western Corridor Transportation Study
The Western Corridor Transportation Study goes through the basic stages of public policy analysis:
- Problem definition;
- Option identification;
- Option analysis;
- Recommended packages.
The project has three phases:
- Initial consultation (identifying issues, priorities and options that the public wanted considering);
This stage screened out options that were not worthy of further consideration (including electrification of the rail line to Otaki and converting Akatarawa Road into a major highway) and provided the raw data for putting together packages of projects that were complementary.
- Scenario testing (development of different packages of projects and consultation on those).
- Development of draft corridor plan (a preferred package for consultation).
This package has been consulted on by Transit and the regional council, with submissions closing on Friday.
The purpose of the study is to reach a Western Corridor Plan to be adopted by Transit and the Greater Wellington Regional Council. Another part of this is that the findings about the best transport options would inform advice to Ministers about what level of additional taxpayer funding should be provided for the Western Corridor.
Key findings
In terms of problems along the corridor, the key findings are:
1. Ngauranga Gorge has the worst congestion by far.
2. Traffic growth is greatest through Paraparaumu/Waikanae.
3. Trip reliability is the biggest issue of public concern– not safety or regular consistent congestion.
4. Paremata/Mana will be eased by the current improvements, but congestion will be back to current levels within ten years.
Congestion is low between Plimmerton and Mackays Crossing. Yes I know sometimes you get delayed for a short period on some evenings there, but on average, the traffic flows relatively well. Congestion at Pukerua Bay is starting to emerge at peak times, but congestion between Pukerua Bay and Mackays Crossing wont be serious for a bout 10-15 years. The biggest issue for the public is the route remaining open. Congestion is far more serious south of Tawa and particularly south of Johnsonville.
In addition, the main safety concerns largely relate to intersections on the highway (particularly between Raumati and Peka Peka) and the coastal stretch of highway.
Solutions
The key findings in relation to options are as follows:
1. The main weaknesses in the rail link are the single track sections between Pukerua Bay and Raumati. Passenger rail service frequency can be increased to 15 minute intervals at peak times to Paraparaumu only if some double tracking is carried out from Mackays Crossing to Raumati ($40 million). Further double tracking from Pukerua Bay to Paekakariki would improve reliability (as the line would be at capacity) but would cost another $280 million more – this is hardly worth it.
2. Rail alone wont fix congestion, as rail improvements will shift 500 people a day from car to rail, but only remove 100 vehicles from Ngauranga Gorge at peak times. At best some low cost enhancements (bigger park and ride) and improvements that would happen anyway (new trains and more frequent services) may delay growth in congestion, but beyond that rail improvements are very expensive and will deliver little.
3. Completely free flowing road capacity between Kapiti and Wellington at peak times will reduce rail patronage by 10% and will probably increase congestion south of Ngauranga.
4. North of Mackays Crossing, the Kapiti Western Link Road would reduce congestion in Paraparaumu and Waikanae, and improve reliability by providing a second crossing of the Waikanae River. In the longer term, an expressway following much of the current highway would reduce crashes and further relieve congestion, including providing options to bypass central Paraparaumu and Waikanae townships. There is little debate about this and Transit has the Kapiti Western Link Road – Stage 1 – in its 10 year State Highway Plan.
5. South of Linden, the Petone-Grenada link road would improve linkages for freight between the Hutt and the north, and the Hutt and Porirua, as well as providing congestion relief for the most congested parts of the Western and Hutt Corridors (Ngauranga Gorge and Ngauranga-Petone respectively). Petone-Grenada was the MOST ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT PROJECT evaluated in the study – it would generate the same level of benefits as Transmission Gully, but for only $180 million. Dr. Cullen and Peter Dunne might want to debate this, but it does show what value there is in politicians keeping out of the way – it is clear that the Petone-Grenada road is well worth building.
Now the real debate is between Linden and Mackays Crossing.
The BIG issue Gully vs Coast- same benefits, different cost
Some of the biggest myths need reiterating here. The best projects on the Western Corridor are NOT on this section. There are far greater benefits in building Petone-Grenada and a Kapiti expressway than either Transmission Gully or 4-laning the coast road. Simple as that. Why? Because the congestion at Ngauranga Gorge and between Hutt and Ngauranga is worse, the congestion in Kapiti is growing faster, and the crash rate in Kapiti is higher than along the coast road (plus the coastal crashes can largely be prevented by a median barrier).
Most roading projects in New Zealand proceed not because of politicians (hilarious seeing local MPs claiming credit for new roads – Winnie Laban and Darren Hughes had absolutely no influence at all on when the Mackays Crossing Overbridge proceeded), but proceed because they are fixing a problem that is worth fixing.
The much maligned Lindale underpass, unfortunately underscoped by Transit and above budget, was built because Lindale was the site of several fatal accidents, and with growth in that area would be the site of more – but Peter Dunne wouldn’t know that. One of the most treacherous sections of highway in Wellington used to be State Highway 2 outside Cornish St in Petone, until Transit resurfaced it with non-slip surfacing, which eliminated a blackspot – but Peter Dunne wouldn’t campaign for such a non-sexy project which actually saves lives for only a few hundred thousand dollars. Petone-Grenada would provide an alternative to the Hutt motorway for people going to the Hutt when that route is congested due to an accident – which happens several times a year – something I would have thought Hutt MPs would care about.
However, back to the central section of the Corridor. The issues are:
Safety: The coastal section head on collisions will be prevented by a median barrier (with some modest widening) which will cost around $16 million. Transit has design funding for this work, which will need resource consents as some of the existing walls and rock structures beside the highway need to be demolished – let's see if the Plimmerton and Paremata Residents’ Associations oppose this one. The other safety issues are intersections at Paekakariki and Airlie Road (Whenua Tapu cemetery), and the exposure to risk in Pukerua Bay and Mana. Paekakariki and Airlie Road are fixed with an overbridge ($25 million) and underpass (maybe $5 million) respectively – Transit is consulting separately on Paekakariki because it does not believe that it can continue with the current dangerous intersection regardless of whether or not Transmission Gully is built, and it is right. Transit also believes that a 2-lane bypass of Pukerua Bay ($50 million) is necessary, regardless of whether Transmission Gully is built – primarily because if it IS built (assuming untolled) 40% of traffic will remain on the current highway. So the main safety issues can be fixed for around $96 million – leaving Mana/Plimmerton still exposed (although safer as the traffic lights provide far safer traffic and pedestrian access for local residents). Transmission Gully would avoid the need for any further work at Mana, and possibly a Pukerua Bay Bypass.
Congestion: Congestion on this section will exist primarily at Mana/Plimmerton, within ten years of the latest improvements being completed, and the merge beyond the yet to be completed Mackays Crossing overbridge. Some modest congestion at Pukerua Bay is also likely where the 4-laning ends. The only way this can be resolved is by either 4-laning the entire route and a bypass at Mana, or Transmission Gully. However, lets get some perspective here. That congestion will be very much peak focused for relatively short periods, it wont be urgent at Mana/Plimmerton for some time, and a 2-lane Pukerua Bay Bypass will ease delays at that point. Congestion relief should not be a priority in the short term, but planning will need to be made to build extra capacity to relieve congestion in the medium to longer term.
Reliability: This is the issue that Transmission Gully proponents talk the most about – they want a third highway standard road into Wellington (there are already two – SH1 and SH2, and arguably Paekakariki Hill Road and Akatarawa Road both provide light traffic alternatives during closure). Another road would certainly improve reliability – but building in such a high level of redundancy for closures that happen only a few times a year, at such a high cost is something worth debating. The reliability problems of the current route are substantially reduced if a median barrier is installed, because it will significantly reduce the rate of crashes – which are the main reason the road gets closed. The crashes will also be located on one side of the road, meaning that traffic should still flow in the other direction.
Slips? These are rare, and the one event in the last year that closed the highway for a considerable period of time was unexpected, but is unlikely to happen again. This is when the option of 4-laning could make a significant difference. 4-laning the highway provides far more road space to undertake work to clear crashes and slips. It is relatively easy to clear a 4-lane highway of any incidents, so much so that the proposed “Reliability” package for the Western Corridor did NOT include Transmission Gully. In short, the reliability benefits of Transmission Gully (remembering it would be steep, with a viaduct along a fault line) are not worth it. Reliability is significantly improved by placing a median barrier along the coastal route and a flyover at Paekakariki, and would be adequate with 4-laning of the coastal route.
Cost
Now this is the critical one. According to the study, taking into account inflation and factoring in project risk, the comparison is as follows:
Transmission Gully $1.09 billion
Coastal upgrade $735 million (Comprised of Mana Bypass $220 million, Pukerua Bay Bypass $70 million, Coastal 4-laning $365 million, Paekakariki interchange 4-laning $20 million and Grays Road upgrade $60 million)
So there you have it. Since the study finding, a specific report was commissioned to confirm these costs and essentially, nothing bridges the $250-300 million gap in cost between these options. Both routes are about the same length, so no gain there. Both routes would enable 100 km/h travel between Mackays Crossing and Linden. The key difference is that Transmission Gully is a brand new 27km road built along a faultline in rural farmland vs selective upgrades to an existing road, with a couple of new segments along an established corridor and coastline, with some houses that will need to be moved or demolished.
Now note I have assumed a number of givens – that the median barrier along the coastal highway proceeds anyway, and a flyover (2-lane) at Paekakariki also proceeds anyway, but that the Pukerua Bay Bypass does not proceed regardless.
Transmission Gully’s benefit/cost ratio is now less than 0.5:1, it is a worst dog than ever before.
However, the coastal highway isn’t entirely the best project either. Parts of it are. A Mana Bypass is expected to be worthwhile within ten years, as traffic growth erodes the extra capacity benefits from the just completed upgrade. A Pukerua Bay Bypass is also expected to be worthwhile in saving travel time and significantly improving access around that community. However the coastal segment doesn’t generate many benefits and would struggle in itself to get a positive benefit/cost ratio (though is nowhere near as bad as Transmission Gully). The reason being that the only benefit in 4-laning the coastal section is really network reliability – safety benefits are minor and the congestion relief benefits are low as well, at least at current traffic volumes. The coastal section should be done last.
So what now?
Assuming silly arguments such as not doing Petone-Grenada are dismissed, along with refusing to do anything along the current route for safety reasons, there are three options:
1. Develop and build Transmission Gully. This would mean no pursuit of any coastal improvements after the median barrier is built and the Paekakariki flyover. Transmission Gully could probably be completed within 10-12 years.
2. Develop and build the coastal expressway upgrades progressively. The sequencing isn’t important, but would see the expressway completed within 10-15 years, although segments would be open in advance of that.
3. Build neither within the next ten years, but improve the existing highway to be a safe reliable 2-lane route until the economics of either of the above options improve.
Next: What my preferred option is and what funding the Labour government gave for the Western Corridor?
02 November 2005
The Tory Party's chance to go forward
With the Tory Party race down to two horses - David Davis and David Cameron (and it all being up to party members now), it is timely to consider what this means for the party that once considered itself the natural party of government in the UK.
While much of the media is treating David Cameron as its darling child, David Davis has upped his campaign by wanting to reduce the size of the British government as a proportion of GDP to below 40%. He also has talked about flat tax, not too seriously mind you, but was floating it. Now the cynic in me says he just wants the votes that went to Liam Fox in the last round – trying to be the right wing candidate. He was never talking much like this before, and frankly I have seen enough conservative/libertarian mainstream party candidates before who disappointed. However, to his credit, he never used the drug issue to get at David Cameron, although it is unclear whether this was because it was more likely to backfire. Davis wouldn’t be bad, he has disowned the bad side of Blairism, the spin, the obfuscation of reality and the nanny statism that it still carries (the latest manifestation being a proposal to require sellers of houses to produce a certificate of fitness or similar so buyers don’t need to get the homes inspected – which, critics say, buyers wont trust anyway!).
Cameron, on the other hand, drips charisma, youth and enthusiasm. He has shown a disdain for mindless authority – his refusal to be drawn into whether or not he inhaled or snorted in his youth, shows some level of maturity. Many old fashioned Tories would have boo’ed him off the stage, before they paid some woman in black leather to dress them in a plaid skirt and stockings and tell them what a naughty girl they are. Cameron’s downside is that he is committed to increasing spending on public services as well as tax cuts – not exactly a trimming of the state, though his message appears to be one the public want to hear.
For me personally, it would be hard to pick between them. Ideologically, Davis is probably in favour of less government than Cameron – but critically, Cameron is more socially liberal than Davis. THAT is something the Tories desperately need. One solution promoted by Davis is for Cameron to be his deputy – there are worse options. Together they would represent a change, and balance each other out – and lets face it, the Tories have quite a majority to overturn to get elected in four to five years time. However, I doubt Davis can overturn it – he might cut it back substantially, but he hasn’t got the “X” factor that Cameron has.
So, reluctantly, I am still convinced David Cameron is the best hope the Tories have – to shed their old Conservative coat and to look less socially anal (and hypocritical). The Tories need to stop playing the closet race card of immigration – which, while a legitimate issue, is seen by too many non-Anglo Saxon migrants, as being racist – a way of tapping the likes who would otherwise support the ultranationalist British National Party. The Tories also need to stop treating homosexuals, single parents and anyone who doesn’t look like they are in a “born to rule” family, like not being worthy of their consideration.
Ironically, despite his Eton background, Cameron is the candidate most likely to do this. I believe with a consistent message, carefully disciplined, the Tories could waltz to victory, albeit a narrow one, at the next UK election. More and more Britons are tiring of Labour’s “tell us what to do” attitude, and Gordon Brown will creep Labour back towards old Labour, and the dynamism of reform that Blair has pursued will wither.
The Tories need this change, it is all they have, otherwise they will die. Blair at the Labour Party Conference this year said “never overestimate the LibDems and never underestimate the Tories” – now it is time for the Tory party membership to prove him right, I just hope that those that are still off their ventilators aren't still wondering why Winston Churchill isn't standing!
Cameron, on the other hand, drips charisma, youth and enthusiasm. He has shown a disdain for mindless authority – his refusal to be drawn into whether or not he inhaled or snorted in his youth, shows some level of maturity. Many old fashioned Tories would have boo’ed him off the stage, before they paid some woman in black leather to dress them in a plaid skirt and stockings and tell them what a naughty girl they are. Cameron’s downside is that he is committed to increasing spending on public services as well as tax cuts – not exactly a trimming of the state, though his message appears to be one the public want to hear.
For me personally, it would be hard to pick between them. Ideologically, Davis is probably in favour of less government than Cameron – but critically, Cameron is more socially liberal than Davis. THAT is something the Tories desperately need. One solution promoted by Davis is for Cameron to be his deputy – there are worse options. Together they would represent a change, and balance each other out – and lets face it, the Tories have quite a majority to overturn to get elected in four to five years time. However, I doubt Davis can overturn it – he might cut it back substantially, but he hasn’t got the “X” factor that Cameron has.
So, reluctantly, I am still convinced David Cameron is the best hope the Tories have – to shed their old Conservative coat and to look less socially anal (and hypocritical). The Tories need to stop playing the closet race card of immigration – which, while a legitimate issue, is seen by too many non-Anglo Saxon migrants, as being racist – a way of tapping the likes who would otherwise support the ultranationalist British National Party. The Tories also need to stop treating homosexuals, single parents and anyone who doesn’t look like they are in a “born to rule” family, like not being worthy of their consideration.
Ironically, despite his Eton background, Cameron is the candidate most likely to do this. I believe with a consistent message, carefully disciplined, the Tories could waltz to victory, albeit a narrow one, at the next UK election. More and more Britons are tiring of Labour’s “tell us what to do” attitude, and Gordon Brown will creep Labour back towards old Labour, and the dynamism of reform that Blair has pursued will wither.
The Tories need this change, it is all they have, otherwise they will die. Blair at the Labour Party Conference this year said “never overestimate the LibDems and never underestimate the Tories” – now it is time for the Tory party membership to prove him right, I just hope that those that are still off their ventilators aren't still wondering why Winston Churchill isn't standing!
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