Dummies guide to the National Land Transport Programme

Various journalists HAVE published in the morning papers about how this region and that region are about to get certain roads built in the coming financial year because Land Transport NZ - the government's land transport funding body - has just released its National Land Transport Programme. Invariably they will get things rather wrong.

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So here it is:

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1. In the next year, the government intends to net $1.81 billion from your road user charges, motor vehicle license/registration fees and the fuel tax dedicated to the National Land Transport Fund. It also intends pumping in another $538 million from the Crown account - this is equal to all the rest of the petrol tax that you pay that used to get spent on everything else. So as of 1 July, you can actually say, for the first time ever, that all of the money collected from road users is being spent on land transport. The total funding being spent is now 90% more than it was 4 years ago - while you may say this is good, the growth has clearly been inflationary in the construction sector as road project prices go through the roof.
2. Land Transport NZ decides how this money is spent based on bids from Transit and local authorities. Transit and local authorities cannot make Land Transport NZ fund anything, and both get turned down from time to time, or get less than they ask for. So Transit actually funds nothing, virtually all of its money has to be approved by Land Transport NZ.
3. The National Land Transport Programme is Land Transport NZ's INDICATIVE allocation of funding, by activity class, for the next year. Most projects listed in the Programme are either already approved in the past year, or MAY be approved in the coming year. Approvals are made on a case by case basis for projects over a certain. It is NOT approval for big state highway projects, it does NOT mean certain projects are definitely going ahead - but it does mean that they COULD be funded, if the final bid is up to scratch, costs haven't blown out and there aren't other pressing priorities (i.e. natural disaster sucking up emergency road funding).
4. For the first time it now integrates funding for Police traffic enforcement and safety education campaigns, so that tradeoffs can be made between building roads or improving safety through education or enforcement of traffic rules.
5. About $324 million is allocated to public transport, walking/cycling, rail/sea freight and travel demand management (i.e. not roads), around 16% of the total. The Greens will say it is not enough, but this is over three times the proportion that used to go into those activities when the Nats were in power. Half the reason it isn't more is because in some cases councils are bidding for crap projects, or they want a higher proportion of subsidies Remember also that most of that funding only cover half of the cost of the subsidy, the other half of the subsidy comes from councils, and there are costs paid for by users through fares. Road users fully pay the costs of state highways - the majority of public transport users are subsidised by those road users.
6. Almost everything local authorities get funding for from this has to be part funded by them, which means your rates. Your rates may be paying from anything between 55% to as little as 13%.

Now compared to other countries where politicians decide ever project that gets funded, this system is a vast improvement - but with the Crown money being inserted, specifically to go to specific regions, with Ministers saying what that money is expected to fund, this is getting a bit blurred. The Greens will say that road building is pointless and the roads will be empty soon - noticed that happening have you? Labour will think this enormous spend up is fulfilling all everyone ever wanted.

So will the National Party or ACT criticise the politicisation of funding? Maybe they will criticise the end of benefit/cost ratios as the determining factor for funding projects (it is now only one factor). Maybe they will suggest it would be better if the highways at least were run by the private sector, as is starting to happen in the US, with a direct relationship between what road users pay and what they get in service, or maybe they'll just moan that certain porkbarrel roads they think are important aren't getting funded quickly enough. *snort*

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Get the National Land Transport Programme in full or for regions here.

Get Transit's State Highway Plan for the next year here.

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UPDATE 1: I am disappointed again at the shoddy journalism. For starters:

Rebecca Quilliam in Stuff said "For the first time Transit's funding includes $224 million for police road enforcement". Um no, Transit doesn't allocate the funding and hasn't for ten years now - sheesh learn about what you write - and it doesn't have anything to do with "police road enforcement". The NZ Herald makes exactly the same mistake.

and "Auckland's roads are to get 26.7 per cent – or a $558.7 million cut." Really? Given that this figure comes from a table that includes $146.9 million for passenger transport (and lesser amounts for other non road activities) it is more like $400 million - in fact had you taken 30 seconds to read up the table, you'd have SEEN that figure. The NZ Herald makes the same stupid mistake.

and "A significant amount of funding will be spent on projects including the Manukau Harbour Crossing " Actually no money for that has been approved, and what has been indicated that MAY be approved, is a tiddling $17.4 million on investigation and design - not construction.

and "At least $33.46 million has been put aside for construction of new state highways, which will include helping to build the Transmission Gully motorway. " She means for Wellington, and she means upgrades not NEW state highways, and no - virtually nothing about construction for Transmission Gully, but around $10 million MAY be approved for investigation. Not construction, unless you count the $400,000 for finishing the long approved tree planting along the route to contain runoff. Sorry Rebecca, nothing dramatic there.

In the Dominion Post, Adam Ray and Colin Patterson make similar mistakes saying:

"Work worth $80 million investigating Transmission Gully, a proposed new inland motorway to enter Wellington, will begin straightaway. " Um no. Investigation costs $10 million, the other $70 million is detailed design. The $10 million is likely to be approved this year, but has not yet been approved, it wont be happening straightaway. Transit at best is putting together a bid for the $10 million identified as likely to be funded.

So where did this all come from? Easy. Reporters (not fucking journalists - journalists do more than parrot what others say) have taken, for example, this statement:

"A particular focus is on high priority Auckland projects such as the SH20 Manukau Harbour Crossing which is part of the strategic Western Ring Route."

and said instead that "A significant amount will be spent on projects including the Manukau Harbour Crossing ".

None of them understand that this is an indicative programme and actual funding is decided on a case by case basis. Wellington's Inner City Bypass was in the programme for three years, before it actually got funding, so was the ALPURT B2 motorway bypass of Orewa. The Manukau Extension of SH20 had funding approved two years ago and has yet to have a sod turned on it. Why? Don't ask me - get one of the "journalists" to ask these questions. You rely on them so much else information, tell me now that you trust them.

World Cup - sad loss of Aussie

Tomahawk Kid Graham Clark has said a lot I wanted to say on this - the refereeing was bloody awful in the Australia-Italy game, and the penalty called for which cost Australia the game was outrageous. Graham suggests that there be a video referee, as in one day cricket, who could be called upon to rule when the referee on the ground isn't certain. Italy did not deserve to win, its performance was abysmal. Australia on the other hand has gone from strength to strength, and would have been a marvellous upset - but there were certain lapses of concentration at critical moments.

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Now we are into the quarter finals and there are some reasonable bets here. Hopefully Ukraine will manage to sneak a victory this Friday against Italy - lets face it, Ukrainians need something to cheer themselves up. While if I had to, I'd put money on Italy, its performance hasn't been great. Germany vs Argentina will hopefully go to the hosts, who deserve to go foreward - plus geographically who wants a blood spat between Brazil and Argentina. Brazil will smash France, as is natural, but on Saturday England will stop and watch it play Portugal. England have gotten this far through skin of their teeth, and by being in groups where, with the possible exception of Sweden, the team has not been evenly matched - but then again, has really only scraped through. I'd be betting on England to do the same again against Portugal. Portugal won its group convincingly, defeating Mexico (and the less important Angola and Iran thankfully - who wanted the mad holocaust denying President to come over to Germany) so will not be a pushover.

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On something a little different - the official Fifa World Cup site has something called Fan of the Match. This is awarded to the passion shown of fans there. I put photos of the highest and lowest rated ones at the top, I think I can guess how they are being rated.

What to do with North Korea?

Capitalism is so awful isn't it, far better to totally reject it and adopt an approach where the profit motive is eliminated, there is full employment, everything is owned "by the people" and everyone works for the "common good". Well this photo is the result - this the success of complete socialism - North Korean style. Malnourishment of children. Meanwhile, it is developing missiles. It is of mindblowing hypocrisy that the left condemns the US for poverty and militarism, when Americans do not starve, do not get thrown in gulags at the slightest hint of opposing the regime and are not prevented from leaving, but pays little attention to the utter horror of North Korea.

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While Iran remains the number one focus of concern with nuclear proliferation, North Korea remains the biggest puzzle. 56 years ago on Monday, North Korea launched its overwhelming attack on South Korea following the US withdrawal of troops from the South, and with the egging on of Stalin and Mao. It continues to deny that this is what happens, despite Soviet archive evidence confirming it. North Korea has admitted that it has nuclear weapons, whether or not this is a bluff is unclear, and will remain so until North Korea conducts a test. Hopefully that will not happen.
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North Korea is an enormous threat to South Korea, Japan and the US. It has a standing army of 1 million vs 650,000 in South Korea, and you can be sure that after the top echelons of the leadership and the secret police, the armed forces get fed and looked after. Sure it does not have the high tech weapons systems that the US possesses, but it does not really need them. It would take half an hour for North Korean troops to reach Seoul by road, and under ten minutes for missiles to hit it. It possesses large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and one of its biggest exports is arms. There is little doubt that North Korea has the potential to kill millions in South Korea in days, either as a first strike or in response to any military attack.
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That is why an attack on North Korean military facilities is out of the question. It would almost certainly start a second Korean War, and you can be sure that not only South Korea, but Japan and possibly Alaska or Hawaii would also be subjected to attack (although I would bet on US ABM capabilities over North Korean missiles anyday). The cost in lives in South Korea and Japan would be enormous, and hardly worth it. North Korea has sabre-rattled for decades, launched minor border skirmishes, attacked boats and engaged in terrorism (although that ended after the Cold War) , but has not launched another war and its number one motive is survival. Kim Jong Il is no fool - he knows that if he launched any attack on the south, he is finished if he launched a nuclear attack, the US, south Korea and a substantial coalition of the willing would finish off North Korea. China would not step in to save him.
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He is using nuclear weapons to do two things. Firstly, to deter an Iraq style attack by the US. While the odds of the US attacking first have always been very remote, nuclear capability rules it out. Remember this nuclear capability was being pursued well before this Bush administration, and reflected more the end of security guarantees from the USSR and China, and the evidence from the Gulf War of US military superiority over the 1960s era military of Iraq.
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Secondly, North Korea wants to be noticed. Its economy is virtually bankrupt, the majority of its GDP is sucked into the armed forces, which keep a significant portion of the population mobilised against the pretend foreign threat (keeps them from local issues) and much of the rest is sucked into propping up the elite (Kim Jong Il has been the world's largest individual buyer of Hennessy), and the resources poured into monuments and propaganda. It wants aid, it wants technology and it wants investment. If it did not pose a military threat, most of the world would quietly ignore it and wait for the regime to collapse.
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So what can be done? If you cannot attack North Korea, you can either maintain an icy Cold War against it, attempting to undermine it, or engage and try to reform the regime through incentives. The former means letting it gradually fall over, with the possible risk that in its dying days it lashes out with the military to bring down the south with it, the latter means using government aid to, inevitably, boost the wealth of the oppressors, rather than the oppressed.
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The first priority is to retain a tough defence and deterrence, making it clear that any North Korean first strike will mean the end of North Korea's regime. Following that needs to be espionage, to infiltrate the regime, assisting dissidents, dropping radios into the country on balloons so that the people can listen to south Korean radio and engage in a quiet process of undermining the regime. Thirdly, it is aid on our terms. Let non government agencies enter North Korea to deliver aid personally to those who need it so it is not diverted.

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Finally, dialogue. Dialogue that is not like the statement at the end of this post, but is about being realistic, behind closed doors, about the regime's long term future - this means opening up, trade zones and closing the gulags. Remember, virtually none of this dialogue will be with Kim Jong Il directly, but with others who could be a great asset if they believe the West has good will towards Korea and Koreans. The only future for North Korea is to change, to open up, and allow its brutalised, oppressed people to be freer, and to be re-educated in how to function in such a society. Give them property rights, give them choices and give them a chance to learn about their various areas of expertise/interest - instead of spending time each day learning turgid bullshit about Kim Jong Il and propaganda about the regime.

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A plan has to be developed to allow them to become free - the worst options are military attack or to wait until it collapses to respond. An attack will be unbelievably costly while it is so heavily armed and so capable of killing millions - a collapse will risk the mistakes of parts of the former USSR- anarchy dominated by the emergence of organised criminals (ex party/army) with the means to impose order.

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Oh and you think the regime cares? Well read this - it is most of a press release from the Korean Central News Agency, commenting on a high level defector's remarks about the human rights abuses in the country - the language is hilarious, and says a lot about how bizarre the world view in Pyongyang actually is. Imagine any other government using such terms to describe anyone, I have put the most outrageous in bold. Hwang Jang Yop was once President of Kim Il Sung University and Chair of the Supreme People's Assembly:

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"U.S. hard-line conservatives were reported to have arranged the visit of ugly-looking Hwang Jang Yop to the U.S. from October 27 to November 4 for such anti-DPRK burlesques as "hearing", "interviews" and a "lecture." They took him to different places to let him make malignant remarks such as "dictatorship abusing human rights" and solicit the U.S. not to offer any "security assurances" so that the political system in the DPRK may "collapse."

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As already known, Hwang, by nature, is human scum as he defected to the south in quest of profligacy and his own pleasure leaving behind his own family and relatives and unhesitatingly betraying his own motherland that had protected his own life. It is not hard to guess what such a runaway would say as he has inveterate bitterness towards the system in the DPRK. His jargon is the shrill cry on his deathbed.

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What matters is that the neo-conservatives in the U.S. earnestly waited for him and arranged all sorts of "interviews" almost everyday during his visit to hear that dirty and silly guy talk nonsense. Leading members of the International Relations Committee of the House of Representatives, senior officials of the State Department and leading officials concerned of the Department of Inter-Security and other neo-conservatives in the U.S. vied with one another to hear him just as bluebottles gathered around rotten meat.

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They seemed to have nothing to do. They arranged "hearings" one after another to listen to Hwang who can hardly be considered as a human being as he is unable to make an objective judgement of reality, bereft of faculty of independent thinking. This is really enough to make even a cat to laugh. It is deplorable that those who puff themselves up in the political circle in the U.S. behaved so. This proves that they are worse than Hwang, the human trash without an equal in the world.

Death of Aaron Spelling

Aaron Spelling died on Friday following a severe stroke he experienced on 18 June.
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He produced hundreds of TV series and episodes, including Starsky and Hutch, Charlie’s Angels, Fantasy Island, Hart to Hart, Dynasty, The Love Boat, Melrose Place and most recently, Charmed.
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Now none of these will ever be seen as brilliances of drama or comedy, but he was instrumental in creating a genre of storytelling with drama and comedy that was immensely successful and popular. That popularity was due to it being light entertainment – who can forget Mr Roarke and Tattoo on Fantasy Island (pictured), which I remember watching as a child, or the cheesy Love Boat.

Cindy "Stalin" Kiro’s approach to child abuse

There is another world that some people inhabit – a world where the state can solve everything, and everything bad is nobody’s fault, just the system doesn’t ensure that things “fall through the cracks”. It is the world of Childrens’ Commissioner Cindy Kiro, and if ever there was an argument for abolishing this role and keeping Dr Kiro far from any public policy role, this is it.
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She is rightly concerned about child abuse, but what stands out a mile is her solution and her view of the perpetrators in her official press release.
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For the solution, she has said:
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“I am calling for the creation of a plan for every child so that no one falls through the gaps. These plans would mean that educational, health and safety information would be shared and assessed in a consistent way.”
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Yes, rub your eyes. A plan for every child. The state will now truly be a parent, not only for those on welfare, but for every child. How do you plan a child’s education? How about health? Does this include diet? Safety? Do your kids ride bikes without helmets, climb trees, use electrical devices? Do you have smart kids who are highly responsible, or really stupid ones? Imagine that – a plan. You need a lot of bureaucrats to set up plans and monitor them, though who knows if there will be enforcement? It does mean that all sorts of aspects of parenting could be questioned – do you allow your children to watch adult rated TV? Do you discriminate under the Human Rights Act in front of your children? Do you smoke near them? Do you allow them to taste wine? Chilling isn’t it – a politically correct Cindy Kiro vision of the state planning a child’s life – all for the child’s good you understand. Not quite Brave New World – but do you want a bureaucrat establishing a plan for your child?
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Then she says: “A key benefit of the integrated framework is that all professionals will be required in their assessments to take account of the child’s life in the context of the families and communities in which they live.”
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So teachers marking kids’ school work will have to “take account of the child’s life”? “It’s ok, little Johnny comes from a poor semi-literate family, so we will scale up his English marks to a B even though he performed at a D”. What the hell does this really mean Dr Kiro?
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Finally- you know how violent abusive parents kick and beat their children up, and are cruel and deliberately malicious? Well ACTUALLY how stupid could you be. It isn’t THEIR fault they torture and kill their kids. See Dr Kiro says:

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“It’s time to stop the blaming and ask ourselves how these children escaped the safety net that was available to their parents.”

So not only DON’T blame the perpetrators – not THEIR fault they are evil, but how did the children escape the safety net AVAILABLE TO THEIR PARENTS? What the hell is that? “Hey kids how did you escape this safety net we abusive violent thoughtless parents have to rescue you”? Imagine if this was describing a man who abducts and rapes a child, and you said “don’t blame him – find out how the child escaped the safety net available to the rapist”. This is fundamentally corrupt of reason and morality.

Dr Kiro – the abusers are to blame, fully and completely. Most New Zealand parents are not like that, they are not to blame. The safety net is not available to perpertrators – these parents are vile, disgusting, lowlife and your failure to acknowledge this minimises this crime, and minimises the responsibility they have for what they do.
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She concludes “In future we need to put in place a plan for each child from the day that they are born so that children don’t fall through the gaps again.”
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No we don’t Dr Kiro – leave good parents alone, put abusive parents in prison and prevent them from ever having custody again - stop subsidising bad parents with money taken from good ones – and while you're at it, buy a ticket to Pyongyang – you’ll find your ideas of planning children’s lives working a treat. Please also state how many children you have saved from abuse as Commissioner for Children - I doubt if it is as high as 1.