07 May 2008

Wellington transport plan reasonable

Well the Greens are unhappy (but building a road and not building a steel church - I mean light railway - means that is guaranteed), but the plan itself as reported in Stuff isn't half bad. A new flyover at the Basin Reserve (long been planned and necessary) will make a big difference as will widening Wellington Rd and Ruahine St. Bus lanes through town and down Cambridge and Kent Terrace could do some good (especially if taxis and trucks are allowed on them too), so all in all a reasonable way to spend some fuel tax.
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The ridiculous light rail fetish, which few of the enthusiasts accurately cost on a per passenger km basis, should be killed. However, second Terrace Tunnel and Mt Victoria Tunnel would be good - but there is no talk of tolls which could fund them. I'd argue that State Highway 1 could be privatised and that would incentivise construction of a decent bypass as it could have variable tolls by time of day, but there is little appetite for this in Wellington.
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Oh and while the Wellington Mayor is enthused, note no MPs will get fired up about modest good road projects - they don't see votes in them (unlike Peter Dunne's fetish with Transmission Gully), so they often get neglected. Not even the Transport Minister, Annette King, whose electorate would benefit enormously from improving the roads between the city and the airport, is too interested - but then maybe she's looking at what her job is after the election?

06 May 2008

NZ Herald hits rail issue on the head

Today's NZ Herald editorial has made the point that is ignored by the anti rail privatisation church:
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"If those private owners who put their money into the assets did not maintain their investment, there must have been a reason. They would surely have not let those assets deteriorate if rail was truly competitive with road transport and capable of realising a good profit. Passenger services would not have ended if people had viewed trains as a preferred means of transport. Most recently, Toll had been unable to make the business afford the rent that the Treasury wanted for use of the Crown-owned track network. Clearly, there was a significant distance between the profitability of the rail service and the cost of infrastructure maintenance."
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Absolutely furthermore "People will also take some convincing that modernisation, in itself, will make rail attractive to customers. Evidence supplied by Wisconsin Central and Toll suggests there is a substantial, perhaps unbridgeable, gap between it and roading in purely economic terms."
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So you see, it was economically rational to run down the railway system. It simply wasn't worth it. Unless of course you believe the nonsense about the environment, or you want a train set to run.

So what IS happening with fuel tax?

First, the government announces, some time ago, that to fund more inefficient public transport, and roads that are politically driven, it will allow regional councils to levy fuel taxes on petrol AND diesel (diesel typically has no tax usually).
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Helen Clark says on the 6th that the new regional fuel taxes to subsidise public transport (and fund more roads) wont happen.
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Dr Cullen then says they will. However the government wont agree to a "full tax" immediately. He says that without a regional fuel tax in Auckland, rail electrification can't proceed. You might ask why those who would benefit from rail electrification - users and operators of the commuter rail service - can't pay for it themselves? You might ask by how much congestion will drop because of electrification? You wont get an answer.
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Now Helen Clark says it wont include transport in the emissions trading regime until 2011, so that the punitive 8c/l levy would be delayed. Note the word delayed. She also said the government wont approve a regional fuel tax as high as 5c/l, which means you might get one less than that.
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However, one thing you can be certain of - Labour will increase fuel taxes or levies. You might ask how good the "investments" are that it expects the taxes to be used on.

Reaction to rail nationalisation

Predictably, the soothsayers and faith based activists for rail are bowing their heads in deference to the mountain of taxpayers' money thrown into buying the ferries and railway rolling stock. Don't forget this is $150 of your money taken to be used on this - you might have preferred that be spent on food, health insurance or some books for your kids - no you've been forced to buy a business that will cost you more again, each year, so that a handful of companies can move their freight more cheaply.
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Mainfreight is cheering it on, after all, it will be a key beneficiary of subsidised rail freight.
Jim Anderton and NZ First's Peter Brown, both experts of regulatory economics (ha!), are wetting themselves with excitement. Peter Brown claims it "will result in improved service, innovation" though I wonder what he was drinking when railways were last government owned to think that state ownership means innovation and quality service. It was a national joke. Jim Anderton of course simply worships state ownership - remember that he will be deciding, along with other Ministers what trains you'll be forced to buy for the railways. Yes - the $665 million is only the start. It's worth noting that Air New Zealand, being publicly listed and partially privately owned doesn't have any such political interference (or subsidies) in its investment programme. However, you might wonder whether Peter Brown, whose personal policy fetish is coastal shipping - has realised the government is about to own one of the biggest competitors of the coastal shipping sector!
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Richard Prebble claims the buyback may cost as much as $3 million a day in subsidies. He may not be far wrong. He also asks if different companies will be allowed to run train services on the tracks (as is the case in much of Europe and Australia) or whether the government will run a monopoly? It's a good point. Why shouldn't someone wishing to buy their own trains run a service on the publicly owned tracks, especially now the government has bought Toll's monopoly access rights?
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The trucking industry, in the form of Tony Friedlander (ex. Muldoon era Minister of Works) of the Road Transport Forum said it was too early to comment. After all government owned rail is likely to compete with many trucking operations.
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The Greens are of course thrilled that taxpayers have been forced to buy their idol - the railway rolling stock and locomotives. It would be nice if they actually used it more though. Nevertheless Jeanette Fitzsimons is already calling for you to be forced to pay for the slowest motorised long distance transport in the country - passenger trains! It takes six hours to go by rail from Christchurch to Dunedin (without speed restrictions) four hours to drive, less than an hour to fly. It takes five hours from Wellington to Napier by rail, 3.5 to 4 hours to drive and an hour to fly. Auckland to Wellington by rail can, at best, be done in 10.5 hours, seven hours to drive and one hour to fly. Few things excite the Greens more than rail transport - it truly is a faith based initiative.
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National of course is opposing it, but wont reverse it. See that's what being in Opposition is all about - oppose a policy at the time, but go along with it when you get elected. It's called Ratchet Socialism - Labour advances socialist policies, and National can't move the ratchet back, (and has policy worthy of rat shit as a result). The claim the Nats make that it wouldn't get a good price for the sale. However, here's an idea. Don't sell it, hand out the shares to the general public. Give everyone a stake in the railways and hand over the shares. Publicly float them, see if the value is retained, and then people can bail out if they like. It wouldn't be "flogging off the assets to foreigners" it would be handing them to New Zealanders - true public ownership, though not one socialists agree with because it doesn't mean Cabinet is in control. However, David Farrar thinks there is a case for the state to own core infrastructure assets - so he wont think the Alliance is mad in seeking renationalisation of Contact Energy, Auckland and Wellington airports. Meanwhile Maurice Williamson has said National is committed to buying electric trains for Auckland. Why, except for votes?
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I'll expect ACT will advocate privatisation of it again, as it should.

05 May 2008

Food prices? Blame government

If ever you wanted to witness the catastrophic effects of government intervention in markets you need only see the international crisis around food prices. The primary reason why food prices have been increasing is demand from middle income consumers in India and China. This increase should easily have been accommodated by a free and open global market for food production. Demand increases, prices rise and this should encourage production in the commodities most sought after. Farmers and wholesalers of such goods would make good profits they can reinvest in growing more, and doing so more efficiently. Consumers benefit as this dynamism and entry into the production market helps keep prices from increasing too rapidly.
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Well it would work that way, but for the European Union, US federal government, Japanese government and other agricultural protectionists.
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Many have blamed the new found fetish for biofuels. They are partly right. Now biofuels are meant to be good because their production absorbs the same CO2 produced when they are burnt, and can replace oil. Sadly, whilst biofuels may have a future, governments in many countries have started subsidising them, making it more economic to grow corn and wheat for fuel rather than food. Half of the growth in crop consumption is due to biofuels, and that would not have happened had the US, EU and the like thrown bad money at it. Rather than letting oil companies choose to invest in the best options for more energy, there has been massive diversion to biofuels - the result is higher food prices. If biofuels were not subsidised they would face the same pressure on prices that oil (and food) has, making their economics more questionable and helping ensure that the balance of agricultural production is not leaning towards fuel.
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The biofuel agenda has been promoted by environmentalists such as the Green Party, keen to mandate compulsory targets for biofuel production. As much as they may wish to plead that it should be "sustainable", the vile meaningless buzzword of the 21st century, the truth is simply this - Government incentives for biofuel production increase the price of food. Environmentalists who want the state to encourage biofuels are doing so at the cost of food - simple as that.
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However, the new fad for biofuels may, at least, have a future. If left well alone, biofuels may well become important, but will be competing with hydrogen fuel cells, solar energy, wind energy, nuclear and dare I say it, new sources of oil.
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There are two far bigger concerns around the trade in food that are hindering, enormously, the ability of the food sector to respond to increases in demand.
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The first can be quickly addressed, these are the failures of the developing countries in the form of price controls, import controls, domestic monopolies and the like which have existed in many of the countries most suffering from the increases in prices. The price controls on food have restricted the economics of food production in those countries, and restrictions on imports have also hindered supply. Deregulating the import, export, production and sale of food should be a priority so that the right signals can be sent to increase production, and for food exporting countries to enjoy the windfall to encourage them to invest in producing more. Sadly the socialism of countries like Venezuela, keeping food prices down, has exacerbated the situation.
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However, for all of these failiings (and in many countries these barriers are being dismantled out of necessity), nothing beats the abject catastrophe created by the European Union, USA and Japan with agricultural protectionism.
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Liam Halligan in the Sunday Telegraph attacks, quite rightly, the French Agricultural Minister Michel Barnier who claims, without a hint of irony, that the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a "good model". Model of what?
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Millions will happily protest against so called US imperialism, and have no doubt about it - US agricultural policy is only slightly better (and the Democratic Party led Congress is now pushing through another Farm Bill to spread pork to the feather bedded US farming lobby), but who protests the multi billion dollar distortions and disasters that result from the EU's CAP.
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Let's review what the CAP actually does.
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For starters it inflates the price of food in Europe by imposing tariffs, quotas and bans on food imports from countries outside the EU. It does this to protect inefficient European farmers, and so hurts European households by making them pay more than they need for food. The knock on effect is that efficient food producers outside Europe get poor access to that wealthy market, hindering their production in favour of the small, energy intensive subsidised farms of Europe. So the CAP first favours the less productive against the more productive, and European consumers pay more, whilst disadvantaging others.
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Secondly, the £33 billion per annum in subsidies - yes £33 billion - is poured into the farms that already have a protected market, so they can produce. Ah, you cry, but if they didn't produce wouldn't the price of food go up? Um hold on, part of these subsidies is to pay farmers NOT to produce, much like in the US. This trick was to eliminate over production, caused by the protectionism and subsidies in the first place. So yes, the EU pays for farm land to be unproductive, as does the US federal government. Be nice to end that straight away so that farm land might be more profitable used AS farm land than as a source for a welfare cheque - but no the French government says "it is a model". However, what is truly destructive about these subsidies is how they decimate food production elsewhere in the world, you see the CAP subsidises exports of inefficiently produced European food to the rest of the world.
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The result? Agriculture in many developing countries has been stunted by the EU's exports of its highly subsidised produce undercutting efficient production elsewhere, whilst shutting its own doors to imports.
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As Halligan says "the CAP, along with other Western subsidies, has delayed the cultivation of, and investment in, vast swathes of potentially fertile land across Africa, Asia and Latin America. And it's this land which should now be supporting the large-scale commercial production of the food these regions - not to say global markets - so badly need."
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So the EU, followed by the USA (and don't doubt Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will keep this going, McCain's opposition to "pork" spending may hold some hope) and Japan (on rice predominantly) have stunted and hindered food production elsewhere by propping up their own inefficient agricultural producers. The insanity of the CAP is such that the more efficient dairy farmers in the UK can't benefit from record dairy prices because of quotas of production within the EU - what rational agricultural policy prevents your farmers from making money from high commodity prices, but ensures your consumers pay more than that for what they buy?
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The CAP was originally about two things - ensuring European farmers had adequate incomes and food security. The latter is a nonsense, given the UK used to consume virtually all of NZ's food exports until the 1970s, and international trade in food with record prices will help ensure food security. The former is even more of a nonsense. The CAP stops European farmers from realising the benefits of high commodity prices, whilst simultaneously hindering production elsewhere. If there were ever a time to remove agricultural subsidies and trade protectionism for agriculture it is now.
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The clear message to Brussels, Washington and Tokyo should be plain and clear. It is time to dismantle your pork barrel laden agricultural protectionism. That means abolishing subsidies so that production isn't distorted in favour of inefficiency, and abolishing tariffs, quotas and bans on free trade in agricultural commodities - so that your own consumers aren't paying over the odds.
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Agricultural subsidies are the invention of socialists and economic nationalists, the truly economic braindead. They are immoral, destructive and a cancer upon the world of food production and trade. Nothing would assist in addressing food shortages more than dismantling these abominations, and meanwhile the enormous money saved might just be a boost to the flagging European, US and Japanese economies. Farmers in these countries need to be told - as prices for dairy, meat, wheat and rice are at record levels - you should stand on your own feet. Meanwhile, it would be nice if the EU's budget was halved and taxpayers got their money back.
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As is said by the Economist, ever the friend of free trade:
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"Defenders of the CAP and other rich-country farm policies cannot have it both ways. They cannot demand more money when prices are low, and then ask for extra protection when they rise. High food prices further undermine their already rotten arguments for support, and offer a golden opportunity to dismantle rich-country farm protection"
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The environmentalist new left movement is propagating a new form of snake oil called "food sovereignty". The UN Rapporteur on the "right to food" Jean Ziegler, a supporter of Cuba's agricultural policies, is a cheerleader for this.
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It's about time that these economic fraudsters were exposed for what they are. Their philosophy is literally killing people, and it is impoverishing farmers throughout the developing world. The time is now for all those who give a damn about food to call for a complete liberalisation of agricultural trade. Nonsense like so-called fair trade and the like should be ignored for what it is, a distraction.
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Meanwhile blame the environmentalist movement for biofuels, along with agricultural protectionism (although socialists and economic nationalists are equally to blame here). However there isn't much hope, with Sarkozy's administration talking about "community preference" as a new form of protectionism, and both Clinton and Obama pushing anti-trade agendas. S0 when will those who claim to care about poverty speak up against agricultural corporate welfare?