Appeasing North Korea

So:

- You run a totalitarian slave state which a loud declared intent of "liberating" your neighbour. You are known to already hold ICBMs, biological and chemical weapons.
- You develop a nuclear weapons programme which isn't admitted as even being a nuclear programme until the US confronts the world with the evidence.
- You announced withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement all the time continuing to develop your nuclear programme. The IAEA declares that it cannot provide any meaningful assurances that you are not developing nuclear weapons.
- The Clinton administration does a deal - the "Agreed Framework" to supply fuel oil, light water reactors and economic aid, in exchange for ceasing plutonium enrichment. In comes the fuel oil, and the aid - you're smiling.
- The IAEA immediately states its dissatisfaction with the Clinton Administration's deal because it gives North Korea too long to comply- which of course, pleases you immensely, because you can move things.
- The aid continues, you allow inspections of the facilities you have cleaned out, and you keep both the aid, and the reprocessed plutonium and uranium.
- Under the Bush Administration, after being called a member of the axis of evil, you admit to having a nuclear weapons programme all along. You say you have every right to do so, and besides the promised nuclear reactors are years behind schedule. You refuse to allow inspections, but say you will halt (again) if you get aid. Your first bluff worked - you got aid AND weapons.
- Meanwhile a ship is discovered with missiles you've made being transported to Yemen.
- The US halts oil shipments and aid, and demands you keep up your side of the bargain. You remove seals from the original nuclear reactor and announce it is going to be activated again, and you'll restart reprocessing plutonium.
- IAEA refers the issue to the UN Security Council.
- You declare how you proudly develop your nuclear deterrent and you'll prove it, but you'll freeze in exchange for concessions.
- Clinton Administration Secretary of State Madeleine Albright admits that you cheated during the Clinton years.
- You say you'll treat the US as a friend as long as it stops slandering your system - President Bush had previously called your leader a tyrant, you maintain concentration camps for children of political prisoners down to infant age.
- You reach agreement with the US again to halt the programme, and rejoin the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement. Then you say you want a light water reactor again.
- You test fire seven missiles just to show you're serious.
- You announce you'll test a nuclear weapons, and you do.
- UN Security Council passes resolution of sanctions, mainly financial and trade in luxury goods.
- You agree to shut down the reactor after receiving 50,000 tonnes of fuel aid, and allowing inspections to verify. Inspections verify you have shut down the reactor.
- You throw out inspectors once more and recommission the plant.

Now a deal is struck between you and the US, for you to be removed from the list of countries supporting terrorism, and to have a new verification plan for the ceasing of activities.

You still have nuclear weapons, missiles and still sabre rattle daily against South Korea, Japan and the USA on your media.

Yes, I know the question is - what else can be done? Well, this house of cards is ready to collapse - you'd be wiser to engage with it as much as possible, offer North Korean officials trips to learn about economics, business and governance elsewhere, and plan for the collapse.

However playing its endless game of blackmail and bribe, is not the answer. That should end. Meanwhile, I am sure South Korea and Japan are grateful for the US nuclear umbrella.

Labour candidates 40-36 - mostly mediocre

Continuing my series on Labour candidates are numbers 40 to 36. This is when we are getting into the margin between winning and losing. It is conceivable that Labour wont get enough party votes to save these MPs if they do not win their constituencies. Not because Labour wont have 36 MPs, but because enough lower down the list and off list will have a bigger chance of winning electorates, so there will be a lesser need for the list MPs. Now guess the profession of most of them...

Mahara Okeroa – Te Tai Tonga – Number 40: Profile, photo and no website link. He has a facebook. Mahara is Te Tai Tonga’s current MP. Mahara was a teacher and a regional director for Te Puni Kokiri before being elected in 1999. Nothing unusual in a Labour MP coming from teaching and bureaucracy, makes a small change from unions.

“By removing barriers to Maori in education, healthcare, housing, and employment, we have made sure that Maori are equipped with all the tools to enable them to reach their full potential.” Yet some don’t, care to explain why Mahara? What barriers existed before?? “Maori are entrepreneurial, youthful and dynamic, and Labour is determined to build on these attributes, to ensure that Maori have the best possible future.” Well quite positive really. To give Mahara credit his profile doesn’t engage in attacking other parties, and he talks about opportunities and less about government support (although he certainly implies that a lot).

He’s certainly head and shoulders above Louisa Wall as a Maori candidate.
In 2005 Mahara won with 47.2% of the vote against the Maori Party’s Monte Ohia on 34.1%. Labour got 57.9% against Maori Party’s 17.6%. Mahara may well be able to hold his own here against Rahui Katene, the Maori Party candidate. Although I support abolishing the Maori seats, in the meantime, I hope he does hold on, though you have to wonder who the three people were in Te Tai Tonga who voted for the One NZ Party! Prediction: Mahara will hang onto his seat, Te Tai Tonga isn’t a Maori Party stronghold.

Mark Burton – Taupo – number 39: Profile, no photo and no website. Mark has been MP since 1993 first for Tongariro then Taupo. Mark was a social worker, and worked for the Red Cross, Social Welfare and Otaki Health Camp before being elected. He has been a Minister of Internal Affairs, Defence and SOEs, but resigned from these roles in 2007.

“Labour has major policies to roll out and progress, building on the broad range of social, economic and environmental policies we have advanced over the last nine years. " Like?

“So in Election 2008, I am proudly campaigning, and Labour is campaigning - as we always have, on substance – on policies delivered and policies to come, because we know that none of the very real challenges New Zealand has faced and faces now, can be met with short-term fixes and one line slogans.” Hmmm yes, Labour wouldn’t do that, I mean the website has no one line slogans does it?

Now Mark is going to be looking for another job after the election. He won Taupo with 45.5% of the vote in 2005, against National’s Weston Kirton on 41.1% (Mayor of Ruapehu District). With boundary changes this is the most marginal seat in the country, so Mark is almost certainly gone. On the party vote National was ahead in 2005 with 44.3% against Labour’s 37.3%. Louise Upston is the National candidate. Prediction: Mark Burton’s political career is over. Labour has virtually guaranteed it.

Judith Tizard – Auckland Central – number 38: Photo and profile, no website. Judith’s life has been in local body politics, and owning and managing a restaurant. She is of course the final member of a bizarre political dynasty that includes her grumpy dad and foul mouthed mother. Judith has been an MP since 1990 (Panmure, then Auckland Central defeating Sandra Lee in 1996).

Judith’s profile has no statement, it looks like a CV – convenient really because there is a reasonable chance she’ll need it after the election. It shows her out of Cabinet portfolios and her interests “Politics, reading, gardening, cooking, swimming and theatre”.

Nothing about aspirations, nothing about Labour’s “achievements”, nothing about future policy, nothing about what she wants for Auckland Central or has “achieved”. Great that.

Judith won in 2005 with 43.9% not a high percentage of the electorate vote, against Pansy Wong with 33.1% . Mind you Nandor Tanczos got 14.8% of the electorate vote. It is telling the party vote for Labour was higher on 45.2% with National on 33.7%. National’s Nikki Kaye is working damned hard to unseat Judith, and she has a chance. Judith’s position is on the knive edge locally and on the list. Nikki Kaye has a large gap to bridge, and with Nandor Tanczos retiring it does offer votes that can go elsewhere. It is a brave man who is certain on this one, but I’d like to think Judith would barely be ousted. Prediction (maybe optimistic but): Judith will be surprised when Auckland Central is tired of her and the Labour vote just scrapes below enough to save her on the list. Nikki Kaye will be the bold intelligent hard working new MP for Auckland Central.

Damien O’Connor – West Coast-Tasman – number 37: photo and profile, no website. Damien has been MP for that region since 1993. He has been a farmer, adventure tourism operator and union rep (funny that).

“While being the elected representative for our region since 1993, I am particularly proud of what has been achieved for the electorate during the last three years. Both the West Coast and Tasman continue to flourish; a result of considerable government investment and sustained economic growth. We must ensure this continues.”

Nothing exciting, rather bog standard, then a long list of pork that he claims he is responsible for getting for the West Coast. At least he’s honest, though government should never be about pork. Damien got 47.7% of the vote in 2008, against National’s Chris Auchinvole who got 40.9%, so this is no longer the safe Labour seat it once was, particularly when you note National won the party vote here with 39.6% against Labour’s 37.2%. Chris Auchinvole won a list seat and is running again. It could be a tighter race, though Damien has a strong local following. Prediction: Damien O’Connor will scrape in.

Stuart Nash – number 36 list only: profile, no picture or website. My guess is that Labour needs to get to this party vote to have a serious chance at power.

“I have the skills and experience to handle the complexities of the 21st century and to get the job done. I am well educated and experienced in business, strategy, marketing, management and trade, with Master’s degrees from Auckland and Canterbury Universities.” Degrees in business hmmm but that means “I was the Director of Strategic Development at AUT University” so not REALLY business then.

The funny thing is he never once mentions Labour, at all, not anything the government has done, or any policies, or the word Labour!

“As this country embraces the 21st century. I am confident with my experience and abilities that we will be able to handle the issues and challenges that are going to confront New Zealand in the future.”

Well it’s a list position, but I think Stuart wont quite make it.

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Oh dear, Damien O'Connor and Mahara Okeroa have the best chances of this lot, Mark Burton is a lost cause, but the real race is Auckland Central. What sweeter victory for National than to remove one of Parliament's lazier MPs. However, Labour's party vote also needs to drop below 38%.

Labour candidates 44-40 underwhelming

In my ongoing series of Labour candidates, I cross into those who are actually in Parliament - the ones that Labour needs re-electing to be in power, and a sad lot they are. None of them I believe will be re-elected:

Lesley Soper - Invercargill - number 44: Profile, photo, no website on site. Lesley is the first list MP I have profiled, having entered Parliament following the resignation of Georgina Beyer. She's a unionist (yawn yawn what a surprise), having worked for the primary teacher's monopoly and unaccountable pay rises union (NZEI).

She believes in Southland, but I had NO idea that it is the DIARY capital of the country. I must get a new diary next time I am down there. Why? Well she says :"the whole province has done well under the Labour-led government, from education and health to jobs, to diarying expansion & oil exploration, to a new CourtHouse , to an international-class Sports Stadium". Diarying indeed! An MP who values education!

She's a list MP, so if Labour does as well as last time, she's in - but Invercargill? It's a National seat, Eric Roy took it last time with 49.5% of the vote, against Labour's Wayne Harpur on 43%. Bear in mind Mark Peck held it until 2005 when he retired. So Soper will be trying to win, but her chances are low. Party vote last time was won by Labour on 45.2% against National on 39.5%, so she should be focusing on holding that. Prediction: Soper will be looking for another job, she wont unseat Eric Roy and Labour wont do well enough for her to be elected on the list.

Louisa Wall - Tamaki Makaurau - Number 43: Photo and profile, but no website on the party site. She doesnt appear to have a website for campaign too. Louisa is another list MP, known for her netball. She got into Parliament because of the retirement of Ann Hartley.

Louisa's profile states she "gained a Masters degree in Social Policy in 2001. I have used this degree to advance the needs and aspirations of Maori working within public bureaucracies as a Maori specific representative." Oh dear, so she loves advancing people who are unproductive in a "Maori context", just what Maori need - encouragement to live off of the back of others!

For Maori to have an MP who stands for self reliance, success, education, reason, entrepreneurship and getting the state off their backs. Well it isn't Louisa. Yes she is young, successful in sport, Maori and lesbian - but that isn't enough to consider passing laws and spending other people's money. Tamaki Makaurau was won by Pita Sharples with 52.4% of the vote against John Tamihere on 41.2%. Louisa will surely struggle against Sharples. On the party vote Labour got 55.1% the Maori Party 27.5%, so she'll mainly be campaigning for that, which frankly is the main way she may get re-elected. Prediction: Louisa will be looking for another job, she wont win Tamaki Makaurau, and the party vote wont quite be enough.

Dave Hereora - Papakura - number 42: Profile, photo. Dave Hereora is one of the least impressive MPs of all. Nobody knows him, he is a list MP and just another unionist.

This on his profile is difficult to comprehend: "Having canvassed the Papakura electorate, of the number of issues raised, crime is highlighted as a concern relating to the recent raft of incidents within the wider South Auckland area." OK, you know Labour has been in power for nine years. Crime highlighted relating to the raft of incidents???

"Although statistics show a drop in crime, I am continuing to work alongside the Police in support of their presence and have attended, along with the schools and community, the opening of the Awhi Centre in Smiths Avenue. I am also working closely with Mayor Penrose and meeting and visiting local retailers to improve their networking and safety procedures. " Meeting AND visiting, because an MP can teach you networking and safety.

What a genius, talent and there aren't enough unionists in Parliament are there?

Dave is standing for the new seat of Papakura against Judith Collins, who is the incumbent from Clevedon. Dave will struggle against Judith, but it isn't ruled out. As we move further up the list, that may be where his chance lies, but don't forget, others lower on the list have higher chances of winning electorates. Prediction: Dave will be looking for another job.

Martin Gallagher - Hamilton West - number 41: Profile, photo and well yes Martin is an electorate MP since 1999. "I am seeking re-election to parliament because of my absolute commitment to social justice." Another bloody thief - social justice meaning those successful get money taken from them to pay for those who are not.

"I want to be part of a Government that recognises and promotes our uniqueness as a society and takes our values of peace and fairness to an international stage." Pass the bucket. Save me, can't any of these tossers write anything substantive? Peace? Fairness? Surely more can be expected from a former Deputy Mayor, a member of the multi millionaire Gallagher family? Guilty about success so much he is part of government sucking success out of others.

So Hamilton West was won by Martin in 2005 with only 45.9% of the electorate vote against National's Tim MacIndoe on 43.5% - 825 votes in it. So it is marginal, as is the party vote with Labour on 41.3% and National on 40%. Tim MacIndoe is standing again for National, so Martin faces a serious challenge. Again the list position isn't that high if those higher up win their seats as some may do. Prediction- Martin Gallagher will be going back to the family business.

Labour brings you more petrol tax and a useless railway

Yes, electrification of Auckland's passenger rail network is to go ahead, but don't expect those using it to pay for it.

No. Dr Cullen has said you'll be paying, if you drive in Auckland.

Motorists will, with a new petrol tax for Auckland. Even those driving in Warkworth, Waiuku, Orewa, Bucklands Beach, everywhere without being a "cooee of a railway station" as the PM once said. Yes, Labour is taxing all road users in Auckland to benefit a relatively small number of people who can choose the train to go to work, and those with adjacent properties.

You see in Auckland only 12% of jobs are in the CBD - and perhaps only another 2% are served by other stations along the Auckland rail network. Only 3 out of 9 of Auckland's main transport corridors are served by rail (the one's that aren't are North Shore-CBD, North Shore to West Auckland, CBD-central isthmus, CBD- Pakuranga, Pakuranga-South Auckland and West Auckland to South Auckland (unless you accept it is very slow)). So of that, let's say 15% of jobs, only 5% of commuters could even USE rail, if it was convenient times etc. Around 30% of commuters to downtown Auckland already use bus, so many of those using rail will be ex. bus users, bus services that in many instances are commercially viable privately run operations.

So this is about benefiting at best maybe 2.5% of commuters - it wont reduce congestion, it never has done anywhere else, it will take people from buses and will be a very expensive subsidised trip for those lucky enough to live near a station and work near one.

It's a show off toy for politicians to open. Are you prepared to spend more on petrol to pay for something you don't use? If you want it, are you prepared to pay a fare that fully recovers the cost of providing the service? If not? Why are you prepared to pay a fare that does if you want to fly to Wellington?

Why should urban public transport not be expected to be self sustaining?

The Auckland Regional Council thinks it is essential - it is entirely in the thrall of the failed Smart Growth rail based public transport religion that has seen billions wasted throughout the USA to no avail. "regional council transport chairwoman Christine Rose said it was essential electrification be secured through a fuel tax" the same silly bint who supported the illegal cycle protest over the Northern Motorway, and who wants to waste money on an expensive cycle bridge over the harbour.

Unsurprisingly, the Nats haven't said if they would reverse the petrol tax, but they wouldn't reverse the waste of money of electrification. Fine if it is a contractually committed sunk cost, but that's it.

Auckland has wasted a lot of money on rebuilding its virtually useless railway system to replace a lot of bus services, it is about to spend a fortune on pursuing electrification which may generate more trips, but at a huge subsidy - and with virtually no impact on congestion. Aucklanders who want a railway should pay for it - those who don't shouldn't. How hard is it for people to pay for the transport they use? Yes, that does mean tolls for new roads, it does mean no more ratepayer funding of local roads and it does mean not building a tunnel under the PM's electorate for a motorway.

Can someone at least ask for an independent study into the economics of Auckland passenger rail?

David Cameron - what DOES he believe in?

Widely acclaimed as one of his best speeches, David Cameron was lining up the Conservatives as a future government.

It was a mixed bag, but plays to the philosophical middle of the road in the UK. Some snippets:

Supporting the armed forces "We are going to stop sending young men to war without the equipment they need, we’re going to stop treating our soldiers like second class citizens we will do all it takes to keep our country safe and we will do all it takes to protect the heroes who risk everything for us."

He thinks freedom is anarchy, sadly "But freedom can too easily turn into the idea that we all have the right to do whatever we want, regardless of the effect on others. That is libertarian, not Conservative - and it is certainly not me."

Sensible personal responsibility extended to obligations towards others, your existence allows others to claim upon you. Is that what this means? "For me, the most important word is responsibility. Personal responsibility. Professional responsibility. Civic responsibility. Corporate responsibility. Our responsibility to our family, to our neighbourhood, our country. Our responsibility to behave in a decent and civilised way. To help others. That is what this Party is all about. Every big decision; every big judgment I make: I ask myself some simple questions. Does this encourage responsibility and discourage irresponsibility? Does this make us a more or less responsible society? Social responsibility, not state control. Because we know that we will only be a strong society if we are a responsible society."

He sounds good on cutting spending: "It means ending Labour’s spendaholic culture it means clamping down on government waste and it means destroying all those useless quangos and initiatives. So I will be asking all my shadow ministers to review all over again every spending programme to see if it is really necessary, really justifiable in these new economic circumstances. But even that will not be enough."

He says taxes are YOUR money: "I know it’s your money. I know you want some of it back. And I want to give it to you. It’s one of the reasons I’m doing this job. But we will only cut taxes once it’s responsible to do so once we’ve made government live within its means. The test of whether we’re ready for government is not whether we can come up with exciting shadow budgets. It is whether we have the grit and determination to impose discipline on government spending, keep our nerve and say “no” - even in the teeth of hostility and protest."

Then he starts to want to spend your money, on ridiculous pet projects, while stopping the private sector spending its money: "I have never believed in just laissez-faire. I believe the government should play an active part in helping business and industry. So when our economy is overheating in the south east but still needs more investment in the north the right thing to do is not go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow but instead build a new high speed rail network linking Birmingham, Manchester, London, Leeds let’s help rebalance Britain’s economy."

Then he swings back to not believing in Nanny State: "Labour are clutching at it as some sort of intellectual lifeline. It goes like this. In these times of difficulty, we need a bigger state. Not just in a financial and economic sense, but in a social sense too. A Labour minister said something really extraordinary last week. It revealed a huge amount about them. David Miliband said that “unless government is on your side you end up on your own.” “On your own” - without the government. I thought it was one of the most arrogant things I’ve heard a politician say. For Labour there is only the state and the individual, nothing in between. No family to rely on, no friend to depend on, no community to call on. No neighbourhood to grow in, no faith to share in, no charities to work in. No-one but the Minister, nowhere but Whitehall, no such thing as society - just them, and their laws, and their rules, and their arrogance."

Just when it sounds good he wants "efficient government", and more obligations upon people: "No, when times are tough, it’s not a bigger state we need: it’s better, more efficient government. But even more than that we need a stronger society. That means trusting people. And sharing responsibility."

So that's the choice in the UK. A party that will offer more choice in education, and reform welfare, but believes you do owe others a living, believes business should be subsidised, believes in less government, believes in personal responsibility, but also collective responsibility for others.

Truly this is what the centre-right is about - half of it I can vote for, support, and know it is a lot better than Labour - but then it still wants to waste money on subsidies, interference, and the NHS. Have no bones about it, this is about change, it is different from Labour - unlike National in New Zealand - but it is still disappointingly weak for a libertarian. I can hope the Conservatives can shrink the state, but it really is only a start - well, continuing from what Thatcher did (and reversing some of what Labour has done).