14 October 2008

How should Maori Party voters vote?

Yes yes, they shouldn't, I know - they should vote Libertarianz, but seriously it’s not really me to help out those who I think are voting for statist collectivist racially based party, but the thing is that MMP does it for them, and Maori Party voters figured it out last time anyway. They have something supporters of virtually all other parties have – a party vote that is best NOT given to the party they support. Why?

The magic of the overhang. You see last election the Maori party won 4 electorate seats, but only won just over 2.1% of the party vote. Typically, a party is entitled to its share of the seats in Parliament according to the party vote, as long as the party wins either 5% or one electorate seat. Yes, I know most of you already knew that. However, the Maori Party won more electorate seats than it won proportionate to the party vote, which means an overhand. The Maori Party has one more seat than it would’ve got had it won one electorate seat and then just had its party vote counted.

So what does this mean? Well for starters the size of Parliament crept up by one, which meant that the number of seats for a majority crept up too.

More importantly it shows that the party votes for the Maori Party were as good as wasted – and indeed many Maori Party voters, probably unconsciously – reflected that, since in all seats won by the Maori Party, Labour won the party vote.

Maori Party voters got the best of both worlds, from their perspective. represented by a Maori Party MP and Labour list MPs.

What it means is that voting for the Maori party on the list is pretty much futile if you believe the Maori party will win more electorate seats than it is likely to get as a proportion of the party vote – which is highly likely.

For those of us who believe in less government it means, ironically, that we can either encourage those who vote for the Maori Party on the electorate vote to vote for a party that supports private property rights and less government (Libertarianz or ACT) or encourage them to, vote for the Maori Party (stopping Labour getting their vote. You see if the Maori Party wins many more party votes then the overhand disappears, there are less MPs in Parliament representing the Maori seat voters, which probably means less Labour MPs – a good thing from my perspective.

If National (or ACT or Libertarianz) were clever they would accept and welcome Maori Party supporters vote Maori party in their Maori electorates – but seek the party vote wholeheartedly. For whilst there may be an overhand, the party vote would be held by someone other than Labour.

Perverse? Yes, but that is what the electoral system allows. I once saw an ACT video pre-1996 proposing that National voters vote National in their electorates and ACT for the party vote, for the very same reason. Of course any major party actively pursuing this would be incentivising the other major party to split into Labour- electorate and Labour – party vote, parties, an absurdity, to create an enormous 65 seat overhang of constituencies.

So remember that this election, the Maori Party has every chance of winning more seats than its party vote would entitle it to do, which no doubt is what the Maori Party would want. The bigger question is whether the Maori Party listens to its supporters who will, undoubtedly, predominantly vote Labour on the party vote – or whether it will support National. The latter, surely, would be enormously risky for the Maori Party, but more importantly, if successful, such a partnership would be much much riskier for Labour.

Would Maori Party supporters dare risk a party vote for one other than Labour? Which political party has said it would repeal the Foreshore and Seabed Bill, and defend Maori private property rights? It begins with L - and it isn't Labour.

Labour list candidates 29 to 25, any better?

Continuing my lengthy series on Labour party candidates are list positions 29 to 25. Yes they are all a shoo in, but will any make it on the electorate vote? I'm guessing just one.

Kelvin Davis – Te Tai Tokerau – number 29: Photo, profile, no website (he's not this Kelvin Davis). Kelvin was a teacher and school principal. He states: “Maori will achieve greatness by becoming educated, by attaining influential and meaningful positions in society and business and assisting to make decisions and inform policy that will help us all become ‘great’. Maori need to be proactive, positive and inclusive.” Much true, although an element of “being great through government” isn’t good. He wants to “create the conditions where all Maori achieve beyond their potential. I am going to make a difference.” If only it was about encouragement of the cultural change needed to do it, but surely he holds some hope. You could do worse than elect this man.

However, he is up against Hone Harawira, a great statist and populist. Harawira won with 52.4% against Dover Samuels on 33.4% in 2005, a yawning gap. However Labour did get 49.3% of the party vote against the Maori Party on 31%. Kelvin sounds like a major step up from Hone Harawira, but his chances can’t be great. Prediction: Harawira will hold on comfortably, he has the image and profile to be secure.

Carol Beaumont – Maungakiekie – number 28: Photo, profile, no website (but the CTU has a profile on her -down the page). Carol says “I have always been involved in representative and advocacy roles seeking to make positive change.” Is she a unionist then? “ I am proud of the changes that we have benefited from under Labour but there is more change we all want and need. For all New Zealanders I want to work to strengthen our democracy”. Pablum for the proletariat, because the Electoral Finance Act has really strengthened democracy hasn’t it? This is Mark Gosche’s electorate, so his retirement will mean Carol will face a tougher race. He won in 2005 with 53.3% against National’s Paul Goldsmith on 31.6%, and party vote was very similar with Labour on 50.7% and National on 33.5%. National is putting up Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, who may appeal to this electorate with a relatively high Pacific Islander population, so the race may be more interesting than it first looks. However, a gap of over 20% is considerable and so it is likely Carol will get through. Prediction: Carol Beaumont will take Maungakiekie, but with a far narrower majority than Mark Gosche.

Charles Chauvel – Ohariu – number 27: Photo, profile, and no website link, but he does have a website. Charles is a list MP. He claims credit for doing this:
• “open a new park in Korokoro,
• lead the 2007 Carbon Challenge in the Ohariu Valley,
• support childcare centres and schools across the electorate,
• advocate for improved transport - from new tunnels on the Johnsonville line through to the improvements to SH2”

I can fairly say I did more for lowering the floors of tunnels on the Johnsonville line than Charles ever did, so there he is claiming credit for decisions that have virtually nothing to do with him. Charles does say on his website he is into more integration with Australia - Schengen agreement style - which can't be a bad thing.

Now the interesting thing is that this is about Peter Dunne, and so both Charles and Katrina Shanks of National (a list MP also) are battling to unseat. Dunne has a big majority in this seat, and if votes are to go from him they are unlikely to go to Chauvel as, after all, they are both in the same government. However, Dunne’s local presence is substantial, and despite all the best will in the world, he is likely to remain the local MP. Prediction: Dunne will hold on reasonably comfortably, but the swing to National will see Chauvel coming third behind Katrina Shanks.

Phil Twyford – North Shore – number 26: Profile and website, which has only a photo on it!After living in the United States it was wonderful coming back to a New Zealand that is optimistic, confident, moving ahead on so many fronts, and sure of our place in the world. I think a lot of the credit for that goes to the Labour-led Government of Helen Clark. Labour’s prudent economic management has delivered economic growth that has allowed overdue investment in our infrastructure, established the superannuation fund that will give security to New Zealanders when they retire, and allowed significant new investments in health and education.”

Idiot. He thinks government is so important, he thinks that it hasn’t reaped the benefits of the previous reforms.

The Shore offers a great quality of life and unquestionable beauty but it is feeling the strains of rapid growth and development.” Not any more it isn’t! Given Wayne Mapp took North Shore in 2005 with 59.6% of the vote against Phil Twyford with 33.3%, he hasn’t a hope in hell of winning. Even the party vote is a lost cause, with National getting 53.5% in 2005 against Labour’s 29.9% Prediction: Phil Twyford will become a list MP, but Wayne Mapp will keep North Shore with no threat.

Moana Mackey – East Coast – number 25: Profile and photo (looking a bit different). She’s a biochemist! Done the union thing too, but what a waste – a scientist telling others what to do. Now she’s currently a list MP. “Over the last three years I have made the East Coast electorate my number one priority, and I hope that my work securing funding for local projects, lobbying on local issues, and assisting hundreds of you personally through clinics proves that I get results and shows that I am the right person for the job.” She likes chasing pork for the electorate too. However, she hasn’t much chance. In 2005, Anne Tolley won the seat with 44.8% of the vote against her on 40.8%. National got 42.2% of the party vote against Labour’s 39%, so this is nearly a bell weather electorate. Moana hasn’t really got much a chance this time when the tide is turning against Labour. Prediction: Anne Tolley will remain MP, but Moana will be in on the list.

So there you have it people, more outstanding talent pretty much guaranteed to walk into Parliament - because one in three New Zealanders think the Labour Party is so good for them.

13 October 2008

Labour rescues rich students from the horrors of reality

Yes, the poor bubbas, so needy are the students of the middle and upper income earners.

According to the NZ Herald, Helen Clark is looking to take NZ$210 million a year (which of course is one year, it will grow) of your taxes to pay for the daughters and sons of doctors, lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, senior bureaucrats, politicians to all have a “universal student allowance”. It is of course grand theft to benefit the most advantaged.

It isn’t about students from poor backgrounds, because they already get an allowance. Let’s make it clear it is a blatant election bribe aimed at middle to upper income likely National voters and their voting age children.

Clark bemoans the current income tested allowances “Most of these students would receive no allowance under the current rules and need to borrow… “ Borrow! Horrors! So they actually would have to think before they claim their 75% + taxpayer funded education as to whether it will enable them to earn more money? They might have to take a risk? It gets worse for the poor bubbas “…, receive help from their parents…” NOOO anything but that, anything but rely on mum and dad, no far better to keep taxes up and make them dependent on Auntie Helen – your new parent.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it gets worse, you may have heard that some students are, according to our great Comrade Leader Helen Clark, deciding to “… work part-time, to make ends meet.” Nooooooooo. How COULD they? How unreasonable to spend your life learning that you actually have to earn your way? How WILL they learn life as a bureaucrat when they have to spend time EARNING their money?

So, a great filthy fat election bribe, the piggies are in trough playing with your future earnings eager to bribe others with it.

I’ll ask students one simple question – why do you think it is moral to force other people, who don’t know you, who may thoroughly oppose what you are studying, who may have a mortgage, their own kids, their own businesses and their own needs, to pay for you to live whilst you study with the primary aim of living an above average standard of living?

Oh and need I say the National response? "We will indicate a more generous scheme but it won't be universal at this time" Just another "me too".

UPDATE: Libertarianz Education Spokesman and Hutt South Candidate Phil Howison is concerned that this bribe could encourage students to stay at university endlessly:

"this is a blatant attempt to buy votes. It is bribery. It is corrupt. It is also part of Labour's agenda to make every New Zealander dependent on the state - just as Welfare for Families put middle-class families on benefits, even the richest students will be given their Universal Student Bribe. Welfare dependency destroys motivation, independence and self-reliance. We should be getting people off welfare, not putting our best and brightest on it and simultaneously removing the incentive for them to ever leave university"

Libertarian radio

Adding to the NZ libertarian media sphere is Libertarian Radio it contains links to a number of free market libertarian podcasts and broadcasts including Lew Rockwell, Free Capitalist Radio and Libz radio.

UK acts Nanny on alcohol

According to the Sunday Telegraph the British government is looking to address alcohol abuse in the UK not by requiring those who have accidents due to their own alcohol misuse to face the medical bill, no - by regulating how businesses can sell alcohol.

A government draft code of conduct, which could be made into law includes:
- Requiring wine to be sold in glasses that identify exactly the volumes sold;
- Banning promotions of free drinks to women;
- Restrictions on free samples;
- Bans on promotions that link drinking to "social, sexual, physical, mental, financial or sporting performance";
- Bans on drinking games that relate to speed and volume of drinking.

Yes, Nanny would rather penalise everyone, limit everyone, punish everyone - like children in a school yard, than target those who abuse, those who cost others. No.

There are bigger reasons why so many Brits drink far too much - it wont be fixed by regulation - it is cultural.