Nats 49%
Lab 31.2%
Greens 6.1% (have to be hoping better than this)
NZF 4.5% (easing back thank god)
ACT 3.4% remaining steady
Maori 2.1%
Bill and Ben 824 votes, 9th biggest party! MacGillicuddies reborn (in the joke vote category)
The left vote is definitely well down, but remember 2005, Labour pulled through at the end.
Worth noting the lunatic left Auckland based RAM is doing appallingly badly.
West Coast Tasman remains with National narrowly ahead
Maungakiekie a core Labour seat looking very close.
Rimutaka narrowly Labour
Maori seats have Te Tai Tonga going from Labour to Maori Party, but hardly a clean sweep
National still leading in most the seats I listed before:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
Libz 137 finally ahead of the communist Workers' Party!
08 November 2008
NZ election results live: 0715 GMT
Far too early to tell, but the Nats and ACT may be able to form a government, but the key looks like the Maori seats. Maori Party might pick up Te Tai Tonga, and its party vote isn't doing that well.
48.7% National (still low in my view to govern very happily)
31.4% Labour (low but will pick up)
6.2% Greens (so you want your kids protected from light)
4.6% NZ First (got to hope Auckland voters will knock this down)
3.3% ACT (good effort, but likely to dribble down)
Prebble on Radio NZ saying too early to tell in Auckland Central. 14% swing needed for Kaye to take it. RNZ saying she got a lot of publicity, partly because she is young and pretty!
Wellington Central has Stephen Franks ahead but far too early to tell.
Prebble says foreign sounding names don't do well in NZ! I think he IS right, but with MMP this effect is reduced.
Other electorates to note - Rimutaka is neck and neck Labour/National as is Wellington Central - either would be the first Wellington electorate going National if you exclude Wairarapa.
Libz 109, damned communists ahead!
48.7% National (still low in my view to govern very happily)
31.4% Labour (low but will pick up)
6.2% Greens (so you want your kids protected from light)
4.6% NZ First (got to hope Auckland voters will knock this down)
3.3% ACT (good effort, but likely to dribble down)
Prebble on Radio NZ saying too early to tell in Auckland Central. 14% swing needed for Kaye to take it. RNZ saying she got a lot of publicity, partly because she is young and pretty!
Wellington Central has Stephen Franks ahead but far too early to tell.
Prebble says foreign sounding names don't do well in NZ! I think he IS right, but with MMP this effect is reduced.
Other electorates to note - Rimutaka is neck and neck Labour/National as is Wellington Central - either would be the first Wellington electorate going National if you exclude Wairarapa.
Libz 109, damned communists ahead!
NZ election results live: 0700 GMT
NZ First fourth! Don't write NZ First off yet, Winston wont win his seat, but 4.6% is perilously close to the threshold.
Kiwi Party is getting close to the Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne parties, both of which are one man shows with 5% counted.
Libz hit 100 votes :) which should mean a substantial increase in vote compared to 2005 if translated evenly.
ACT's 3.28% looks like Sir Roger Douglas will be worrying the Nats
Nats 48.6% vs Lab 31.5%
Electorates have Nats ahead in many Labour seats:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
Kiwi Party is getting close to the Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne parties, both of which are one man shows with 5% counted.
Libz hit 100 votes :) which should mean a substantial increase in vote compared to 2005 if translated evenly.
ACT's 3.28% looks like Sir Roger Douglas will be worrying the Nats
Nats 48.6% vs Lab 31.5%
Electorates have Nats ahead in many Labour seats:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
NZ election results live: 0645 GMT
Well I'm watching my guide and Not PC's guide as reference points, listening to Radio NZ (yes I know) because both TV channels are clearly unable to stream properly.
Parties
National 48.9% a bit low for this stage
Labour 31.3% very low for this stage
Green 6.2% looks very good for them (eek)
NZ First 4.6% higher than most pundits thought, but not enough
Bill and Ben Party shows you can convince 500 odd people to vote for a joke!
Electorates
National's safe seats all look safe again.
Auckland Central has Nikki Kaye narrowly ahead of Tizard
Botany has Labour coming second behind Pansy Wong, ACT's Wang campaign isn't looking like a winner.
Epsom has Rodney Hide comfortably ahead of Richard Worth
Mangere Labour's Sio is well ahead of Philip Field
New Plymouth, Duynhoven behind National's Young
Ohariu, Dunne narrowly ahead of National's Shanks
Otaki, Hughes still narrowly ahead of National's Guy
Tauranga, Winston is well behind
Maori seats, looking not much different from before
Conclusion
Nats, ACT, Greens should all be relaxed. Labour must be worried, and the Dunne/Anderton parties will be just that. Libz fighting with the Workers' Party :)
Parties
National 48.9% a bit low for this stage
Labour 31.3% very low for this stage
Green 6.2% looks very good for them (eek)
NZ First 4.6% higher than most pundits thought, but not enough
Bill and Ben Party shows you can convince 500 odd people to vote for a joke!
Electorates
National's safe seats all look safe again.
Auckland Central has Nikki Kaye narrowly ahead of Tizard
Botany has Labour coming second behind Pansy Wong, ACT's Wang campaign isn't looking like a winner.
Epsom has Rodney Hide comfortably ahead of Richard Worth
Mangere Labour's Sio is well ahead of Philip Field
New Plymouth, Duynhoven behind National's Young
Ohariu, Dunne narrowly ahead of National's Shanks
Otaki, Hughes still narrowly ahead of National's Guy
Tauranga, Winston is well behind
Maori seats, looking not much different from before
Conclusion
Nats, ACT, Greens should all be relaxed. Labour must be worried, and the Dunne/Anderton parties will be just that. Libz fighting with the Workers' Party :)
NZ election results live: 0630 GMT
Party vote (I'm going to round to the nearest tenth of a percent)
18% between National and Labour 49.1% Nat/31.5% Lab
Greens 6.1%
Kiwi Party 0.6%
Electorates
Far too early to tell. Maori Party doing well in its seats.
Bridges well ahead of Winston in Tauranga
Formerly safe Labour seat of Napier, already well ahead for National's Chris Tremain
Conclusion
Nats will be quietly relaxed, Labour must already be worried
Greens looking good
NZ First doing better than expected
ACT doing better than expected
18% between National and Labour 49.1% Nat/31.5% Lab
Greens 6.1%
Kiwi Party 0.6%
Electorates
Far too early to tell. Maori Party doing well in its seats.
Bridges well ahead of Winston in Tauranga
Formerly safe Labour seat of Napier, already well ahead for National's Chris Tremain
Conclusion
Nats will be quietly relaxed, Labour must already be worried
Greens looking good
NZ First doing better than expected
ACT doing better than expected
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