14 January 2010

Google says no to the Communist Party of China

Google's enormous success as a company offering a search engine and advertising related to it has given it dominance in how people search the internet. A dominance that has upset governments, some of whom are keen to kneecap overly successful businesses (think of anti-trust/competition law agencies, none of which have learnt from the absurd attempt to kneecap Microsoft, only to find that Microsoft itself is facing both competition and the disadvantages of being too big), but others don't like the internet because of it facilitating a free flow of information and media.

Every new communications and information technology has seen responses from vested interests seeking to restrict or ban it. However, they have also proven to be the unlocking of freedom, a check on bullies, charlatans and authoritarians of every bent. It is no surprise that the Nazis engaged in public book burning, that communist Romania banned typewriters unless they were officially approved, registered and their typefaces customised so the Securitate could tell whose typewriter had produced a document.

Whilst the Nazis were the first to extensively use radio broadcasts to rally support across the nation, the discovery of shortwave radio meant that people in authoritarian regimes could get news from free countries. So the Soviets and even today regimes in China, Cuba and Iran still attempt to jam inbound radio broadcasts from the likes of the BBC and Voice of America. North Korea simply produces radios with no tuning dial, with the capacitor preset to the single state radio station.

Television became a key platform to inform East Germans of what life in the West was like, and news from a non-Stalinist perspective, with much of East Germany able to receive West German terrestrial television broadcasts. Satellite TV more recently has made major inroads across the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. However, entry into that market in China has been done respecting local censorship laws.

However, the internet has become revolutionary. As anyone online can produce content, and the content accessed is up to the person online, its scope is ubiquitous and all encompassing. However, unlike broadcasting, the internet is also an essential business tool. Email is now vital to the productivity and sales of many businesses.

In the mid-late 1990s I attended several intergovernmental meetings which discussed "regulating" the internet. At the time Saudi Arabia had banned it, because it had no idea how to handle content that was blasphemy against Islam and anything of a sexual nature. What was made abundantly clear is that with the internet comes freedom of choice, although some countries were and still are engaging in grand firewall projects.

When Google set up google.cn, it agreed to respect the censorship policies of the People's Republic of China. Google argued that participating in the Chinese market would be more positive for free speech than ignoring it. However, whilst Google would explicitly not include certain results in its google.cn searches, it was clear savvy users in China could find ways around this.

Since then, the Chinese government has expressed concern that Google facilitates access to pornography, and has called for Google to step up measures to help with its censorship efforts. It is trying to pursue an endless game and losing.

So the announcement by Google that it will pull out of China unless it can provide a free open uncensored service is astonishing. It has justified it on the grounds that there have been hacking attempts at Gmail accounts from China, and presumably it has little recourse to the Chinese authorities to prosecute this. However, it is a brave move in the country that has now got the largest number of internet users in the world.

Google has apparently stopped censoring google.cn, which must be causing great angst amongst the Chinese government and the Communist Party. Previously censored articles and images of Tiananmen Square, critiques of Mao Tse Tung and support for Chinese dissidents, Taiwan and indeed much porn will now be easily accessible.

More important than that, Google has let all users in China know of its policy. It has called upon the 300 million or so Chinese internet users to note what their government is doing, and how Google will walk if things don't change.

It is a calculated risk. In China, Google is not the leading search engine. A local variant, Baidu, (a blatant copy) is. However, it will not take long before its users learn they can access what was previously forbidden. Google risks losing advertising revenue in China, now the world's second biggest economy. Yet Google also will gain publicity elsewhere and support from millions in the free world.

So what is the likely response from Beijing? I suspect it will seek to wave Google farewell and seek to ingratiate itself with Yahoo and MSN. It is terrified of free information, protests and calls for political reform, so will itself seek to block Google. After all, the odds that millions of Chinese will revolt over this is low. Yet it will put a stumbling block in the growth of the internet in China.

However, kudos to Google. It will have declared its hand as being the search engine for a free world, it will have shown how a private company can frighten the world's largest authoritarian government. After all, look at how sanitised this report from Xinhua (the Chinese state news agency) is about the issue.

Peter Foster, the Beijing correspondent of the Daily Telegraph says: "Interestingly, for all the nationalism and anti-foreign sentiment that typifies China’s more vocal netizens, the majority of comments on Chinese web discussions forums seem to be extremely worried about what Google’s potential pull-out signifies for China in the longer term."

China has made massive progress though its own hard work and ingenuity, but it has also leant heavily on a global knowledge economy whose well-spring is the free-flow of information.

Google is a potent symbol of that idea and while China can get along just fine without Google in the short-term, a decision to shun Google (which at this point looks the likely course) would expose the inherent limits of the Chinese ‘miracle’.

Yes, the relative economic freedom China has experienced in the past 30 years has been matched by much less individual freedom, particularly when it comes to holding government and more specifically the Communist Party to account. It would appear that the Communist Party can no longer demand obedience and surrender by foreign companies seeking to reap rewards from the ample Chinese market.

13 January 2010

Beware of consultants who know nothing

Take this piece of poorly researched nonsense from Gerson Lehrman Group.

Mistakes?

1. "As launch customer of the stretched, longer range 787-9, Air New Zealand was probably the first major carrier to abandon First Class seating and focus on making money where it counted."

What a non-sequitur. Buying the Boeing 787-9 has nothing to do with abandoning First Class as Air NZ got rid of First Class because it focused on a superior business class hard product on long haul flights, and because NZ demand for First Class is derisory. It was also far from the first "major" (!) carrier to abandon first class. Air Canada, Iberia, SAS, KLM, Alitalia and Finnair all did so, along with Northwest, Delta and Continental on international routes. Clearly the writer has no background in the airline sector.

2. "Boeing has missed a huge opportunity in getting the 787 to customers who so desperately want this new fuel efficient airliner" How? The competition is years away, and the 787 is a ground breaker because of what it is made of, but the writer never mentions that. Funny that. Boeing has screwed up because of supply chain quality and timeliness issues, but the 787 has a key point of difference that the writer doesn't note.

3. "The 747-8 has survived in large part because the passenger variant is still a couple of years away". No. It has survived because most of the orders are for the freight variant, which has successfully killed off the A380F for now.

4. On the Boeing 787 "but there won’t be any cancellations due to the set backs on the program thus far." Except for the cancellations by Qantas, Tui, LCAL and others.

5. Umpteen errors of grammar.

A tip to those who commission management consultants.

Get CVs from those expected to work on the project, seriously query their experience and knowledge. Talk to those involved to quiz them on what they know, and don't let substitutes be offered unless you vet them. Finally, contact the clients they say they have had and ask the clients what the roles were.

Another sign of peace in Iraq

Lufthansa is to be the first major airline to restart flights into Baghdad from later this year.

Austrian Airlines flies to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, but Lufthansa will be a big sign of confidence in Baghdad and Iraq. It will no doubt suddenly make Lufthansa the preferred carrier to Baghdad, although not the first Star Alliance carrier (as Turkish Airlines flies from Baghdad to Istanbul).

Let's hope the confidence is well placed.

Name suppression of ex.MP

The internet has made this entire case a bit of a game. Cameron Slater's post is skirting on the edge of the law, though he explains part of his view on name suppression here. Some have taken to assuming the ex. MP charged of a sexual offence represented this or that electorate, or is in this or that party. It doesn't helop that the New Zealand Herald said "former MP from the top of the South Island" although appearing in the Nelson District Court indicated that anyway.

Ken Shirley has incorrectly been mentioned too often in relation to this, and continuing to name people without any basis for it other than pure speculation is quite unfair. Of course, the list of possible MPs (which if you include all top of the South Island electorates and list MPs) is not great, so it puts a handful under suspicion, although no doubt their family and friends can vouch for them all, bar one.

Of course, given the internet the answer was bound to turn up, and it really wasn't rocket science to figure it out. One very well known and popular website effectively names the accused indirectly. It isn't the only place mentioning it (and no I'm not going to say).

The purpose of name suppression is primarily to protect victims or relatives of the accused. That is entirely fair and reasonable. How this is addressed when the internet is extra-territorial, and allows people to post elsewhere is difficult, as I suspect thousands now know the name and it is being mentioned in person, by phone and even by the foolish by email.

So in effect name suppression has value only in delaying not preventing circulation of names, and in the case of the unknown is likely to be effective. So the question is why should anyone, who has a public profile, be protected from the same sort of scrutiny anyone else might have? Well they should not, people should be treated on a similar basis - and if name suppression is to protect the victim, then it may not be abused like it has been in this case. If it is to protect the accused, then the question has to be asked why?

However, equally disconcerting is that other former MPs from who are nothing to do with this case are having their reputations put under the spotlight because of speculation. Similarly, if there is truth in the alleged offences, then concern should also be for the victim.

It is also fair to note that until the man concerned is convicted, he should be treated as innocent until proven guilty. However, this sort of thing should not be a game. If found guilty, then the name should be released, only if it is not detrimental to the victim. It is quite possible this whole case is very very messy given all those involved.

I am not allowing comments, for fairly obvious reasons.

Islam 4 UK driven underground


The pro sharia law organisation "Islam 4 UK" has now been declared a terrorist organisation by the UK government, banning it, which of course simply means it will regroup under a new name, and re-emerge. The move is unsurprising, but also shows the emptiness of New Labour, which like most things it doesn't like, thinks that a law banning it will make it better - this being the same government that has embraced funding Islamic groups, and has passed laws against "hate speech".

Islam4UK has responded by saying: "what is clear is that if you differ with the Brown regime and those who advocate freedom and democracy and whose citizens are supposedly dying for these ideals abroad, then freedom quickly dissipates to be replaced by dictatorship... Today's ban is another nail in the coffin of capitalism and another sign of the revival of Islam and Muslims. "

Islam4Uk openly admits it opposes freedom and democracy, and is celebrating being banned. Islam4UK after all envisages a world where you'd be imprisoned or worse for "insulting" Islam.

Is a ban helpful? No. It just shows weakness and plays into the hands of the organisation.

What would be a preferable response? A direct, open and loud declaration by all political parties that believe in it that Sharia law will not be implemented in the UK, that Western capitalist liberal democracy has survived threats from fascism and communism and wont tolerate stone age theocrats seeking to undermine it and the rights of individual citizens to live their lives peacefully as they see fit.

Oh and when Islam4UK does ever utter justification for the use of force to advance its politics, then it should be treated as a terrorist organisation (not banned), and its members and associates treated as such by law enforcement agencies.