Where and when will North Korea's future new leader be born?

Why ask such a question?  Wasn't he seen recently in public with his dad Kim Jong Il?

Well yes.  However, when and where was he born? 

Daily NK explains that none of this is new.

Confused?

Well there is NO official birthday, birth year or birth place for Kim Jong Un, yet.   However, some sources in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) claim that this is being manufactured at present.  

It goes like this:

Kim Song Ju (Kim Il Sung after 1935) was born 15 April 1912 at Mangyongdae near Pyongyang.  His birthplace is a national shrine, although the authenticity of almost all of it is questionable, debate about his birthday, birth year and birth place is largely closed.

Kim Jong Il was born 16 February 1941 at Vyatskoye Russia.  This is where it gets interesting.   The official story is he was born 16 February 1942 at Mt. Paektu in Japanese occupied Korea. The earlier date and location are proven by Soviet records and other historical accounts.  Even the DPRK once published his birth year as 1941 well before Kim Jong Il had any political role. 

Why change it?

Firstly the change in location is the most important point.  The official history of Kim Il Sung is that he was an anti-Japanese revolutionary fighter (true on the face of it) who helped lead the Korean people to remove the Japanese Imperial Army from the Korean Peninsula (far from the truth).  To support this myth it can't be said that Kim Il Sung in 1941 (or 1942) was actually in the USSR leading the 1st Battalion of the Soviet 88th Brigade of exiled Koreans (and Chinese) learning about Marxism-Leninism.   Kim Il Sung fought in the Red Army, a fact that would not support his nationalistic Korean anti-Japanese credentials.  Those credentials have been critical to gaining support for him among north Koreans - who better to lead you than a man who single-handedly saved Korea from the (truly) brutal and barbaric Japanese occupation.

So Kim Jong Il HAD to be born in Korea to support the myth of his father.   Given that was the case, where better than Mt. Paektu, the highest mountain in Korea (although half of it is in China) and so it carries "sacred" qualities.  It is where Kim Il Sung was supposed to have had his base to fight the Japanese, so how better to assert anti-Japanese credentials for Kim Jong Il than to claim he was born amongst soldiers.

What about the year?  Well Kim Il Sung was born in 1912, which meant 1962 was the year of his 50th birthday celebrations.   It was decided if Kim Jong Il was said to be born in 1942 not 1941, then 1982 could be a year of 70th birthday celebrations for Kim Il Sung and 40th birthday for Kim Jong Il (he was publicly announced effectively as successor by name in 1980).   Nothing more than that.

So Kim Jong Un?  He needs a suitable birthplace, something to do with his grandfather I would think.  There are conflicting accounts as to whether this is being constructed (and residents relocated as a result).   The birth year is accepted in South Korea as being 1983 because of the testimony of Kim Jong Il's former chef who defected.   Shifting it to 1982 would align it with his father.

What does all of this prove beyond being a quaint curiosity? That a state that owns its people so comprehensively as the DPRK is so egregiously willing to lie to them on such a grand scale about the most trivial of things. 

On a more optimistic note, the Korea Times reports that North Koreans are laughing off the propaganda they are being fed about the new leader and his immortal exploits.   Given even his older half brother opposes the succession (and is being protected by the Chinese government), it seems unlikely that a second hereditary succession can be undertaken smoothly.

Happy Birthday Maggie

Almost forgotten, today was the 85th birthday of Baroness Thatcher, the woman who dragged the Conservative Party kicking and screaming back to its principles and stopped the party from just being a comma to the Labour Party's implementation of socialism.

Her victory was one that changed British politics somewhat, but changed the British economy dramatically.   Not only did she set it free, pulling back the state from areas ranging from telecommunications to buses to railways to coal mines to airlines, but she so shook up the political establishment the Labour party had to abandon hard-core socialism (which meant nationalising industries ever time it got elected) and embrace a mixed-market economy to be elected.   Most of us she confronted a communist (no exaggeration) union movement that was sustained by bullying, monopolies and intimidation, and won.

Let's not be deluded though.  Despite the rabid vile rantings of so many on the left, Thatcher didn't dismantle the welfare state, she didn't dismantle the NHS or state education, she didn't even shrink state spending as a proportion of GDP.  She did take on local government, abolishing the ridiculous Greater London Council, she did believe passionately in private enterprise and choice, but most notably she looked socialism in the eye and didn't blink.  She did it in the Falklands, she did it against Moscow and did it in Brussels.  She showed that she had more courage than any of the "born to rule" testicularly challenged bores who typically infest the Conservative Party.

Sadly, New Labour took her legacy and after its first term got intoxicated again on keeping much of Britain in dependency, with ever growing grants, subsidies, middle class welfare and feeding the gobbling behemoth of the NHS.   This bubble popped when the recession killed off tax revenue to sustain the borrowing.  In short, Gordon Brown squandered Mrs Thatcher's legacy.

What Britain has now is a pale weak unprincipled imitation of Thatcher, and a Labour Party led by a man who is cheered on by a man Thatcher defeated twice.   Thatcher rescued Britain from its Post War stagnation, but she didn't dismantle Britain's welfare state.  The fact that all too many today in Britain sustain a myth of Thatcher as devil shows how much she rattled the socialist consensus.   She wasn't perfect by a long way, she supped with the likes of Pinochet, she mistakenly proposed a new tax for local government and had a streak of social conservatism around some issues that kept many from even considering the Conservatives (e.g.  playing up to bigotry around immigrants and homosexuals).

However, for turning the tide back, temporarily, for putting the wind up a Marxist Labour Party that nearly (had it listened to Tony Benn) nationalised the 20 biggest companies in Britain in the 1970s, for being part of the Western alliance that stared down the murderous anti-human dictatorships of Marxism-Leninism (and won) and for showing Britain that there can be a better way than always turning to the state, she deserves to be congratulated for reaching 85.

Thank you to the Adam Smith Institute for this video reminder of what was:

Len's boondoggle

If you want an example of why politics should be taken out of the sphere of transport then Len Brown’s policies provide some pretty clear guidance.  A lot of attention has been paid to his policies focused on building expensive electric rail lines to the North Shore, Auckland Airport and an underground CBD rail loop. These lines that would cost billions of dollars, would lose money year after year to operate and hence couldn’t be sold for even one twentieth of what it will cost to build them.  However, Len Brown is a politician – he has visions, visions of how to spend other people’s money and he doesn’t care whether this spending is worth it financially, economically or environmentally.  No, he’s joined one of the religions of recent times - Railevangelism – driven by faith, passion and a belief that trains are good, and a little thing like money shouldn’t get in the way of Auckland having more.

The cost of his plans approach NZ$5 billion.  To put that in context that is around two years total spending on land transport by government on roads and public transport, across the country.  It is double the total annual national take of fuel tax, road user charges and motor vehicle licensing fees.   So if you like Think Big, you’ll love Lenin’s Think Biggest. 

Ahh, but wont people use it?  Well sure they will, but you wont be charging fares that even cover the costs of running the trains (which need to be bought too, the $5 billion doesn’t include those).   You see the whole urban rail strategy is based on the trains not making a financial return.   So not only will the capital expenditure be a deadweight loss, but it will bleed money continuously unless the fares are increased to change that.  Funnily enough if the fares were increased the trains would be empty, which tells you exactly how much those who would ride the trains truly value them.

Ahh, but wont their be economic benefits from reduced traffic congestion?  You’d hope so for that sort of money, and a year on year subsidy, but this is where things break down a little.  Yes, the NZTA estimates that removing one car from peak time roads in Auckland and shifting the users to rail is a $17 benefit in reduced congestion.   However, will everyone on those trains have been people who would have driven cars?  Hardly.   Many will be existing bus users,  for the CBD loop some will have otherwise walked, some will have been car passengers (so the car is still being driven but the train offers a convenient option for the passenger) and yes some will be drivers of cars.  On top of that some will be new trips, trips that otherwise wouldn’t have been done,  but which you will have been forced to pay for.   Funnily enough the railevangelists treat everyone on a train as if it is someone who is doing good for everyone else by not driving a car, ignoring that many of them would not have driven in the first place.

Oh but wont congestion be reduced?  Really?  What new world city has made any impression on traffic congestion by building a new electric rail network?  Los Angeles? No.  Portland?  No.  Atlanta?  No.  In all cases the impact on traffic has been minuscule, and is more than made up by the continued growth in road traffic.  A large amount of money spent for next to no gain.   In Auckland only 12% of commuters terminate their trips in the CBD because most jobs are not downtown.  Len Brown wants to build a railway focused on servicing downtown Auckland where over 30% of commuter trips are already by public transport (mostly buses, which get ignored by many railevangelists because they aren’t politically sexy).  The simple truth is that his ideas will benefit a tiny percentage of commuters at a cost of thousands of dollars for every Aucklander.

Surely a rail line to the airport is a good idea and will take lots of people out of their cars?  Well it might take some businesspeople (they always need a subsidy) from taking taxis to the CBD, but the catchment area for airport trips is across all of Auckland.  Who will take the train to west Auckland or Penrose or Pakuranga or Long Bay or Point Chevalier?   Auckland does not and will never have the kind of high frequency metro service seen in London, Paris or New York,  so it will remain highly inferior to take any connecting trips by rail.   An airport line wont ever stack up.

Let’s be clear, the last and the current government have committed to wasting your money on a heinously expensive rail electrification scheme that is already costing a fortune.  Before that has even been built or proven by any measure, Len Brown wants to build the next few stages at around 3x the cost of what is committed already.   He isn’t even saying “let’s wait and see how it goes” in case it proves to be a financial failure or simply doesn’t reduce congestion, he’s calling for more money to be poured down this tunnel of faith.

The economically rational response to the rail programme is to treat it as a sunk cost, let the current contracts be concluded and eventually sell the whole thing off to whoever wants to run it.  The economically rational response to Auckland’s traffic congestion is to commercialise and privatise the road network so it can be priced and invested in according to demand, rather than political whim, and finally for Len Brown to get his pilfering hands out of the wallets and purses of ratepayers.   He is no better at planning how Aucklanders should move than he would be if he wanted to plan how Aucklanders should eat, dress or be housed!

Hwang Jang Yop's passing deserves more coverage

If you watched or read most of the media in the last day or so you'd think the key news about North Korea was the appearance of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un at the 65th Anniversary celebrations of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang.  After all, the authorities in Pyongyang invited foreign journalists and TV crews to cover it.

Sadly on the same day a man died in South Korea who sheds more light on the regime than the spectacle of military parades in the (surprisingly small) Kim Il Sung Square and pictures of an ailing autocrat and his youngest son (with a face allegedly reshapen by plastic surgery to look like his grandfather).  

Hwang Jang Yop was President of the Committee for the Democratisation of North Korea, and the highest ranking defector ever from North Korea.  He was International Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the Supreme People's Assembly from 1972 to 1983 when he was removed and "softly" purged (criticised and demoted rather than incarcerated and condemned).  He subsequently defected in 1997 by walking into the South Korean Embassy in Beijing whilst on an official trip, after which he spent his remaining years in South Korea, writing books and memoirs of the regime in North Korea.

He passed away at his home in Seoul due to a heart attack on 10 October 2010, the day North Korea commemorates the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.   Thankfully his passing does not appear to be suspicious, as it was well known that he was a leading target for North Korean agents  to assassinate.

His defection was bitter for the regime, and he was aware of this, as he fully expected his wife and children would suffer enormously as a result.  North Korea imprisons entire families for the political crimes of one, including children and the elderly with no limits on age.  His letter to his wife expressed his belief that he had to defect for the people of North Korea and could not go on with things remaining as they are.

He wrote 20 books after his defection, about the regime, the Kims and strategies to bring its downfall and reform.  In his memoirs he claims to have written the Juche Idea (the national ideology associated with Kim Il Sung), he tells about the long history he lived through from Japan's brutal colonialism, the Korean War, the rise and fall of socialism, the death of Kim Il Sung and the so-called "Arduous March" when mass starvation saw Kim Jong Il prepare for war whilst millions died.

His excellent regular column in the Daily NK website was one of the most incisive commentaries on the regime and its nature.  His final column mentioned the annointing of Kim Jong Un as Kim Jong Il's successor:

“Kim Jong Il has turned his entire country into a huge prison; a place where a few million people starve and he enslaves the rest...Kim Jong Il is the worst kind of thief; a man who stole a whole country...Now he is making fun of and humiliating the North Korean people, making them shout ‘Hurrah!’ and ignoring the world after conferring a boy with the title, 'general'."

He is being commemorated in South Korea now as a great man whose defection helped challenge the views of many who supported North Korea, and highlighted much about the reality of the regime in Pyongyang. 

The Daily NK visual tribute is here.  His memoirs were published, in serial form, on Daily NK here.

Sadly his passing is likely to get only a brief mention in Western media, compared to the military display and show of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang yesterday, for which the BBC, CNN and other major TV broadcasters were invited.   I note none of Stuff, TVNZ and RNZ websites are carrying this news (NZ Herald carries an AP report), but all carry the story, video and pictures of North Korea the regime want to show.  Even CNN doesn't have the story on its Asia page.  While the BBC does, it puts greater headlines on Michael Law's being an attention-seeking airhead.

Journalism? Ha!

Nobel Peace Prize winner makes a timely point

The Nobel Peace Prize has been devalued so many times over the years that one could be excused for ignoring it.   From its regular glorification of the UN, to the celebration of fraudsters (Rigoberta Menchu), vacuous self promoters and appeasers (Jimmy Carter, Al Gore), accomplices to mass murder (Henry Kissinger, Yasser Arafat) and celebrators of dictators (Agnes Bojaxhiu), it has occasionally got it right  in more recent years- with Mikhail Gorbachev, Lech Walesa, Aung San Suu Kyi and Martin Luther King Jr. 

Granting it to President Barack Obama when he had demonstrably done nothing in the cause of peace (and whose record to this day remains bountifully barren in this field) even disgusted many who would have tended to be supportive of him.  An award for achievement which is designed to encourage someone who had only achieved rhetoric as substantial as that which lies between Pluto and Neptune is meaningless.

Clearly the Nobel Peace Prize Committee intended to encourage with the granting of the prize to Liu Xiaobo a timely debate within and with China about human rights and freedoms in what is now the world's second biggest economy.  

Xiaobo helped draft Charter 08, China's version of Charter 77 which in socialist Czechoslovakia helped to solidify calls to erode the Marxist-Leninist dictatorship in Prague.  His fundamental call is for China to no longer suppress political speech, a separation of powers between state and party, an independent judiciary, protection of private property rights and liberal democracy.

In that he is calling for that which now exists in Taiwan, which largely exist in Hong Kong and which are taken for granted in the West, and indeed in increasing numbers of Asian states.   Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia have all transformed themselves from dictatorships of one form of another into liberal open societies, where political debate is vigorous and free speech guaranteed.   China need not fear this.   Indeed, its future prosperity not only relies on it, but will demand it.

Much has been achieved in China in the last twenty years.  There is debate about issues, the gap is questioning the role of the Communist Party, and there is considerable risk if one criticises politicians.   Chinese people can live their lives without much political interference, and the amount of non-political/civil and private space for citizens has grown enormously.   However, without the ability to criticise ones political leaders, China remains a country where the state treats its citizens as children.

China's greatest weakness today is the rule of law.  Without an independent judiciary, without the ability of the judicial system to hold politicians, laws and officials to account - consistently - China retains a system where corruption is built in to the state, party, judiciary and all of the instruments of state violence.

The reaction of the authorities in Beijing is not unexpected, trying to shut down discussion, treating the Prize as "blasphemy" and threatening trade relations with Norway.   This is not how a modern 21st century power behaves, it is how the poor paranoid and blinkered Maoist China of the 1980s would behave.  

Indeed, it is likely that this will cause more harm than good, as the clumsy efforts to censor this news from the Chinese people will fail.  The internet, even as censored as is attempted in China, is too porous for this news not to now be widely known among tens of millions of Chinese citizens.   The attempt at treating these people as children who can't know news about their own country is counter-productive, and will undo the enormous efforts at national loyalty that were promoted by the Olympics and the ongoing national prosperity.   Following this failure, Xinhua News Agency (China's monopoly state news agency) will no doubt try to shape public opinion in the clumsy manner that was its full time job from 1948 till the 1980s, and this will be seen for what it is.

I like China, it is a country of immense diversity, energy, entrepreneurship and good nature.  I want it to succeed, but it is not a bad time to remind it to look at the two models of governance on its doorstep (indeed one shining example at the back door) that allows its citizens the dignity to speak freely about those who govern them and how they behave.   For the past 30 years China has been moving closer to how both Taiwan and Hong Kong operate - Mr Xiaobo reminds us of the great leap forward (!) needed to lift it up to the shining heights of a modern state and society that exist in that province and region.