Advice for David Cameron

Let me assume, for the hell of it, that it would be better for the Conservatives to govern than Labour.

Then the appropriate strategy NOW is this.

- Nick Clegg has an offer. He will want to renegotiate. If he wants to substantially change it, say it is take it or leave it. Clegg will prefer you over Brown. You have more of the vote than Tony Blair did in 2005, tell Mr. Clegg that he either respects that, or you'll seek confidence and supply.

- If Clegg says no, and negotiates something with Brown, let it be. You can say you tried to form a government in the national interest, on common ground, but you wont sell out your supporters. Besides, you know that a Brown/Clegg/others government (as Labour + LibDems does not equal a majority) either wont last or will involve enormous tradeoffs with the SNP and/or others, that it will be desperately unpopular. Bide your time.

- If Clegg comes crawling back, seek confidence and supply, from Clegg and others, and form a minority government. Be prepared to hold another election if you can't govern effectively. Bear in mind Labour will have its own internal bloodbath in the meantime.

First and foremost, remember that selling out your party, principles and policies to gain power will eviscerate you. Allowing Gordon Brown to do the same will have a similar effect on him.

UK election: Two offers

Labour

Gordon Brown has said that he respects Clegg wanting to talk to Cameron first, but that the door is open for him to talk to Clegg as well (and Cameron). Gordon dangling fundamental electoral reform with a referendum.

Conservative

David Cameron has said either there can be a minority government with confidence and supply from a range of parties, which includes policy compromises, or a "comprehensive offer" to the LibDems.

That "comprehensive offer" would be as follows

Leave immigration, Europe and defence as not negotiable for the Conservatives.
Seek common agreement on education, a "low carbon economy", abolishing ID cards, reducing taxes on those with the lowest incomes and a commitment to civil liberties.
A cross party inquiry on political reform, regarding the electoral system, to consider ideas from all parties.

It also needs to recognise the highest priority is tackling the deficit, this year.

Conclusion

Brown seems desperate, he only offers electoral reform.
Cameron seems statesmanlike, almost take it or leave it.
Clegg? Well what is to his advantage. Brown will mean Labour plus others, but a referendum on reform. Cameron hasn't offered a referendum, but it would be a clean 2 party deal.

Green Party blindly believes a dictatorship

I have been lamblasted loudly by Green Party sympathisers because I damned Frogblog for believing reports about the Cuban health system being simply great.

Now I don't know if Cuba's health care system produces the great outcomes that it reports to the UN or to outsiders. Who does? Cuba isn't a country where you can publish anything, or say anything, or organise a non-governmental association without official approval, or criticise the government. Cuba is a one-party state, it is a dictatorship. There is no freedom of speech regarding politics or public policy in Cuba. How can you believe what the Cuban government says when it throws into prison people who criticise it?

I tell you how, you hold up your hands to your eyes and wilfully ignore that.

The responses I got from the Green supporters are telling:

"How can Cuba trade doctors for oil in Venezuela" Did that happen? You believe Hugo Chavez as well, given he hasn't exactly shown warm tendencies towards free speech?

"How can Cuba offer 5000 doctors after Hurricane Katrina" Because it knew it wouldn't actually have to deliver. Do you think the Cubans really thought George Bush would welcome them in?

"The UN Human Development Index says Cuba has the same life expectancy and infant mortality as the US" The UN gets its data from member states. The Cuban government tells the UN what it wants the UN to know, and nobody audits it.

"Cuba has been renowned for years" Yes, by leftwing activists and developing countries that know no better. Most of the developed world governments are a bit more grown up than that.

"Watch Sicko, it shows you how wrong you are about Cuba" Really? So Michael Moore talked to dissidents, talked to people who independently reviewed the Cuban healthcare system? Yes, thought not.

"Batista was worse" Ah there was a worse dictatorship before, that justifies the current one. Silly me. Tell the Burmese and North Koreans that the next governments they get will be nicer dictatorships, ones that don'[t run gulags, just political prisons, ones that don't execute on a wide scale, just torture and harass.

"Cuba is people not profit oriented" Notice the hoards flocking to live there and nobody wants to leave, and it is so people oriented, the people's freedom of speech can be completely suppressed. How easily do socialists trade away fundamental freedoms when capitalism is absent.

So there you have it.

A dictatorship, that gives its elite the best health care, that doesn't allow independent organisations to be established without state approval, that only permits official publications and broadcasting, that imprisons political opponents, can be believed for having a great health care system.

Except..

Katherine Hirschfeld has written criticising the Cuban healthcare system because:
- "Formally eliciting critical narratives about health care would be viewed as a criminal act both for me as a researcher, and for people who spoke openly with me";
- "Cuban Ministry of Health (MINSAP) sets statistical targets that are viewed as production quotas. The most guarded is infant mortality rate. The doctor is pressured to abort the pregnancy whenever screening shows that quotas are in danger. There is no right to refuse the abortion".
- "In Cuba, however, values such as privacy and individualism are rejected by the socialist
regime as “bourgeois values” contrary to the collective ethos of socialism.... Cuban family doctors are expected to attend to the “health of the revolution” by monitoring their
neighborhoods for any sign of political dissent, and working closely with CDR officials to
correct these beliefs or behaviors."
- There is no right to take action on medical malpractice and no sanctions, unless of course, it is against a member of the elite.

To take one quote from her article "People simply would not voice negative opinions in
the context of researcher-interviewee interactions. Questionnaire data would be similarly
unreliable. In fact, most Cubans I spoke with informally seemed to view questionnaires as tools to elicit popular reiteration of the party line. As one friend stated, "We know we're supposed to be moving toward democratic reforms and be able to speak out, to criticize. But people are still scared. Any kind of survey or opinion poll makes them afraid. No one will say what they really think."

Of course our leftwing friends who support the Greens would point a finger and say "University of Miami" "Americans" "they have to be anti-Cuban". Which is a cop out, it doesn't answer the fundamental points.

It is this simple:

Either you believe what a dictatorship says about how successful it is in looking after its subjects, or you are a sceptic.

It would appear the Green Party is willing to believe a dictatorship.

UK election: Verdict so far

With 34 seats yet to declare, it is mathematically impossible, short of recounts, for the Conservatives Party to get a majority on its own now. However, there are some fairly clear conclusions to be drawn from the election so far:

1. Lots of people turned up late to vote in substantial numbers, and the staff were not sufficient to handle it. Frankly, if you have a 14 hour day to vote, and a postal voting option, I'm not sympathetic.

2. Labour has suffered a significant defeat. However, it does not appear to be on the scale of 1983. 29.2% of the vote is better than Labour might have expected, but with more than 2 voters to 1 against a Labour government, it is astonishing that Gordon Brown thinks it is wise to demand that he have the first call at forming a government. Desperation for power is not pretty. Indeed it may well turn the Liberal Democrats away from any deal.

3. The Conservative Party has made some good wins, has held off the Liberal Democrats, picked up in Wales, but still not done enough to secure power. 36.1% of the overall vote so far is MORE than Labour got in 2005 when it won outright, so David Cameron can claim greater legitimacy to lead a government than Gordon Brown. However, in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 the Conservatives did significantly better. What went wrong?

4. The Liberal Democrats are where they generally always are, only this time it's worse. Having lost seats overall, and only picking up 1% more vote than 2005, it is not remotely any kind of breakthrough. Its predecessor Liberal/SDP Alliance won a higher proportion of the vote (but fewer seats) in 1983. Kingmaker Nick Clegg may be, but he has no grand mandate to do so.

5. The number four party by proportion of the vote is UKIP, albeit only 3.1%. The only seat it had a chance of winning, Buckingham, has not declared yet.

6. The Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties have barely changed at all. Scots having the same seats as before, Welsh gaining 1. No breakthrough there.

7. BNP will say that it did well, with 1.9% so far. While Nick Griffin got nowhere close to his goal of second in Barking, the BNP did disturbingly well in plenty of safe Labour seats.

8. Green Party of England and Wales will be thrilled to have 1% of the vote, but more importantly 1 seat. Replacing George Galloway as the voice against capitalism, individual freedom and western civilisation.

The only party that can govern with the Liberal Democrats alone is the Conservative Party.

Labour with the Liberal Democrats would also need the SNP and Plaid Cymru at least, plus the Green MP at least.

uK election live: uncertainty ahead

I'm off to bed, briefly.

Conservatives pulling in new victories, Liberal Democrats are possibly worse off than before, and Labour has seen much of its vote collapse.

However, it is highly likely to be a hung parliament.

Gordon Brown is apparently going to seek to form a government, because he is legally entitled to do so. However, it would appear to be up to the Liberal Democrats to decide whether to support the Conservatives, or to be a part of a ragtag mob to prop up Gordon Brown.

Whatever is chosen, it will cost the LibDems at the next election.

UK election live: 5.30am Labour clinging onto power without legitimacy

Gordon Brown has flown back to London.

However, Conservatives now have a higher proportion of seats and the vote than Labour, by a long margin.

The Conservatives have a higher proportion of the vote, and with a higher turnout, than Labour in 2005 got.

BBC predicting Conservatives will be 20 short of a majority, but even Labour and the Liberal Democrats together would be short.

Possible combinations:

Conservative-Liberal Democrat

Conservative-DUP, Alliance, independent, SNP, PC

Labour-Liberal Democrat-SNP, PC, SDLP

In other words, unless Nick Clegg does a deal with David Cameron, it will be Ulster, Welsh and Scottish parties that will decide who the PM will be.

UK election live: 5am the birds are singing and..

ITV predicting Conservatives 23 seats short of majority.

So far..

Conservatives - 224 seats, 36.7% of vote

Labour - 168 seats, 27.4% of vote (record low since 1920s)

Libdem - 36 seats, 22.6% of vote

Notable LibDem losses like Oxford West to Conservatives.

Labour would find it difficult to govern given how far behind it is, as it would need the LibDems, SNP and Plaid Cymru, with independents or some Ulster MPs.

Conservatives only need Lib Dems or most of the others...

UK election live: 5am the birds ares

UK election live: reaching those goalposts

The Conservatives need to win a net 166 seats to govern.

So far of the top targets:

- 45 have been won;

- 16 have been lost;

- rest are still to be declared.

The Liberal Democrats were hoping for at least a 5% gain.

So far of the 30 targets:

- 1 has been won;

- 16 have been lost;

- rest are still to be declared.

Oh and leftwing Education Minister Ed Balls has been re-elected, just...

UK election live: Ministers start to fall

Jacqui Smith, former home secretary and star culprit on parliamentary expenses

Shahid Malik, Local Government Secretary

Particularly satisfying to see them gone.... hopefully more to come

UK election live: "Seats to watch" update 2

Rochdale - "Bigotgate" did not cost Labour this seat, because the Liberal Democrats (which were second) lost votes along with Labour.

Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP's number one target to win from Labour. SNP lost 2.3% of the vote, Labour gained 6.5%. A bloody nose for the Scottish nationalists.

Carmarthan West and Pembrokeshire South - Key Plaid Cymru target for Labour. Went Conservative with 9.8% gain. Losses from Labour, LibDem and Plaid Cymru.

Also notable that TV personality Esther Rantzen got a derisory result in Luton South on an independent ticket.

UK election live: 4am roundup

Half of seats declared:

Conservative 159 seats - 35.8% of vote

Labour 124 - 27.2% of vote

Liberal Democrats 24 - 22.2% of vote

Other 25

overall 5.1% swing Labour to Conservative.

Liberal Democrats only up by 1%

UK election live: Rochdale stays Labour

Gordon Brown's gaffe in Rochdale with Mrs "what about the Eastern Europeans" Duffy hasn't cost him. It remains, barely, a Labour seat. Although disturbingly it would appear the Labour vote lost went to the fascist National Front, with the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing into the Conservatives.

Rochdale held because the Liberal Democrats misfired, I suspect because of the policy of granting illegal migrants amnesty doesn't play well in seats where the National Front can attract 1 in 20 votes.

UK election live: "Seats to watch" update

Guildford - LibDem's number one target, Conservative in 2005, has seen 9.9% swing TO Conservatives. The Liberal Democrat bubble has burst.

Dundee East - Labour number one target against SNP. Saw Labour lose 2.9%, small increase to SNP, but Conservatives picked up rest. Stays SNP.

Hastings and Rye - Threshold between Labour majority and plurality. Won by Conservatives with 3.3% swing.

more to come as results appear.

UK election live: How to watch seats

The best way to see how the parties are going with targets appears to be on the BBC:

Here shows the seats the Conservatives have targeted to get a majority AND how they are doing.

This shows the same for the Liberal Democrats

LibDems have won ONE target seat.

Labour so far swung 6.1% to Conservative, but also Lib Dems have swung 0.6% to Conservatives.

BUT, at 34% at this stage, it is a GOOD result for the Conservatives. 28% for Labour is not.

UK election live: Nationalists not done well

Both Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalists) and the SNP (Scottish nationalists) hoped to do well from discontent with Labour in their traditionally Labour nations.

They haven't. Plaid Cymru's single seat won from Labour hides how the Conservatives have picked up several seats from Labour. The SNP has won none of its target seats.

They both campaigned on protecting their nations from austerity if they were needed to keep either major party in power. Perhaps Welsh and Scottish voters, both experiencing coalitions with the nationalist parties, aren't that enamoured about the prospect of that writ large!

UK election live: Too early for anyone to claim anything

Tory landslide? Not yet.

Liberal Democrat gains? None so far. LibDems have lost a seat to the Conservatives

Labour can hold on? hard to say

A string of Tory gains, but Labour still ahead on total vote share and seats.... but long night ahead

UK election live: Labour thinks it can govern with LibDems

Far too early to say, but Labour Ministers are all saying that they can govern with the LibDems in a coalition.

Funny how the LibDems have not been asked what they think of this. However, it does look like Labour has scared the children into turning out for them.

UK election live: LibDems must be disappointed

Lib Dems hold onto their seats, but not picking up targets so far. The bubble seems to have clearly burst. A key target, Guildford saw a swing from LibDems to Tories.

Conservatives starting to pick up seats, but fail to pick up Tooting which was critical.

So far, modest gains by Conservatives, although Labour safe seats see big loss of votes to Conservatives

UK election live: Conservative confidence growing

Kingswood - first Tory win from Labour.

Torbay - Tory target, LibDems hold. Looks like Labour voters are going LibDem where Labour cannot win.

Report that Gordon Brown will seek to form a coalition if there is a hung parliament

That stubbornness will mean it is a long long night.

Labour has lost three seats so far, it is still far too soon to call it.