It's time to reform land transport funding and management

I'm not usually a supporter of new bureaucracies, but I'll give the Infrastructure Commission its due, it's done quite a good job at summarising the main strategic problem in land transport funding.  That being that political ambitions, which match a lot of public ambitions, for spending on roads, railways and public transport, exceed the political willingness to tax the public to pay for them.

More precisely, it seems to exceed the willingness of the public to pay more fuel tax and road user charges, or rates, or for public transport, fares.  I say this because I think it is a fair bet that Luxon and Ministers Willis and Bishop don't think the public would swallow double digit increases in fuel tax or percentage increases in road user charges largely to pay for big highway projects, mostly in the North Island and mostly near Auckland, Hamilton and Wellington. 

The Infrastructure Commission notes that:

Since the late 2010s, spending on roads and rail has far exceeded user revenues, requiring large top-ups from general taxes. In the 2024–2027 funding period, Crown grants and loans totalled $12.8 billion, or nearly 40% of the $32.9 billion in planned expenditure. 

Source: Infrastructure Commission

The Commission continues:

New Zealand spends more on land transport than any other type of infrastructure. Mature road and rail networks connect most parts of the country, supporting the smooth movement of people and freight that underpins a well-functioning economy. While these networks perform reasonably well against peer countries, some important gaps remain. Land transport infrastructure providers face limited external oversight and no economic regulation to protect consumers – which is unusual compared with network sectors where consumers can’t choose between multiple providers. Transport faces several challenges, such as rising congestion on urban road networks, rising carbon emissions, and high health impacts from air pollution and road crashes

What's new

So this gives the impression that there are problems, today in 2026, with congestion, emissions and safety. You might think that this isn't exactly new, and you'd be right. Let's turn the clock back over 27 years...

Maurice Williamson, Minister of Transport, 18 November 1998

For years we have seen steady growth in traffic volumes. Currently, the traffic on our roads is increasing by about 4 percent each year. Also, the way we use our roads has changed. Expanding industries like forestry, dairying and tourism have increased road use in many rural areas beyond their capacity. Population growth in areas such as Auckland, the Bay of Plenty and parts of Waikato has meant that road use in these places is growing more quickly than in other parts of the country.

Some roads are less safe than they could be because they were not designed to carry either the volume of traffic or the amount of heavy vehicles they do. We can improve the safety of our roads, and reduce the human and financial costs that crashes create. The increasing use of our roads also puts greater emphasis on the environment - the environmental impacts of road use can be reduced.

Traffic growth is causing increasing congestion problems in many, particularly urban, areas. It is also increasing maintenance costs and the demand for new roads. We are struggling to meet these new financial demands.

Simply spending more money on the problems would add costs to our total economy, which we would all have to bear. What we need is a system that is smarter at informing road users of the costs they are creating, and smarter at deciding where new investments should go.

A system that results in our road resources being used very wisely. If we wait the problems will get worse and the costs of changing will be greater. If we act now, the changes can be managed in a gradual process with minimal upheaval.

That press release was in the context of announcing a major reform of the land transport funding system, that didn't proceed.  

What did happen was three things. One of them is the most obvious, politicians threw money at the problem, and as happens so often when government spending increases exponentially, it doesn't deliver the value for money that it used to.

Spending spree

If we compare 1998 in real terms (using CPI inflation to bring 1998 prices to 2025 dollars), spending on road infrastructure and public transport alone (there was little government spending on rail infrastructure in 1998), has increased by around 350%. That's 3.5x increase over and above inflation in spending on roads and public transport.

As you see above, 40% of current land transport spending isn't coming from motoring taxes (let alone charging rail users even a quarter of the costs of maintaining their infrastructure), it's coming from general taxes. 

Taxpayers are literally subsidising the movement of goods and people by rail and by road, or to be more precise, subsidising those engaging in the construction and maintenance of the network. In 2025, $4.211b was collected from motoring taxes (fuel tax, road user charges and motor vehicle registration/licensing fees). User fees are sufficient to cover road maintenance and a little more, but not to cover road maintenance and all spending on public transport, or road maintenance and all spending on road improvements.

This table below outlines that increase, using the budgeted spending in 1998 (it being harder to access reported spending online) compared to reported spending in 2025.

Comparison of 1998 and 2025 land transport spending: New Zealand

Where has the money gone?

Public Transport

Despite what you might think if you pay attention to the likes of Julie Anne Genter, or some environmental lobbyists, by far the biggest increase in spending over this period has been on public transport subsidies and infrastructure.  That's money to subsidise the operation of trains and buses, and money to subsidise renewing or improving infrastructure, such as railway stations, busways, the City Rail Link in Auckland and the National Ticketing Solution.

This has been over a twelve-fold increase in spending on public transport. 159 million trips were taken on public transport in the 2025 financial year. It was around 60 million trips in 1998.  With a 40% increase in population during that period, that's an 89% increase in patronage, but I'll leave it to others to judge whether that increase in land transport spending by central government has been good value for money.

Then roads

Also notable has been a big increase in maintenance for local roads and state highways. While some of that may be attributable to increased heavy vehicle traffic, it also shows a remarkable drop in productivity and inflation in costs.  The system has not incentivised or encouraged much in the way of efficiency in managing existing assets.

While much is rightly made of the increase in spending on state highway construction (and much more is planned), but what hasn't happened is that local road construction has not grown anywhere near as much.  The demands for local road improvements are, on average, likely to be lower than the state highway network, as most local roads are either suburban streets or lightly used rural access roads, but there is little real indicator as to whether this split in spending is appropriate or not.

What does seem clear is that highway construction and maintenance costs have grown exponentially, especially in maintenance which, in real terms, should not have increased that much above inflation. 

Warnings about risking poor quality spending.

However, this was exactly what was forecast in the late 1990s if there had been no substantial reform.  When spending on land transport infrastructure was increased then, there was concern about the capacity of the contracting sector to efficiently accommodate growth without inflating the cost of capital works.  After 1996, the Government increased spending gradually. Lowering the threshold for funding from a BCR of 5:1 to 4.5:1 in one year, then down to 4:1 in the following year, and at that point there were ample projects to advance. It was, at the time, thought that spending might be increased further, alongside increases in motoring taxes and reducing the diversion of part of fuel tax to the Consolidated Fund (this diversion ended completely in 2008). However, the view from Treasury at the time was that the threshold of spending should be a BCR threshold of 2.5:1.  

(Footnote: Be cautious about comparing BCRs of projects in the 1990s and 2000s to today, because today's BCRs include a lot of additional benefits, the evaluation period is longer and the discount rate is much lower than it used to be, but that's another story).

The main conclusion in the late 1990s was that just pouring more money into the system was far from optimal.  Big reasons why the system was not ideal were identified:

• The PAYGO method of funding capital from cashflow could not support large scale capital spending that has transformative impacts
• The artificial distinction between new capital and renewing capital/maintenance, with short term funding cycles for the latter generates poor incentives to optimise spending on maintenance across the asset life of roads
• Without better pricing of road use, some roads would be overused at certain times, with some road users not paying enough, and some paying too much to the use the roads.  Far better to enable pricing to reflect demand, capacity and the costs of supply on a more refined scale than the national average across all roads across the country.
• Little relationship between road users and road providers, with very limited feedback from road users to road managers and poor incentives on road managers to respond to the needs of the former.

Quite simply the incentives for innovation, especially for efficiencies was not good enough. This is particularly an issue for territorial authorities, which are more reluctant to engage in long-term contracting for road maintenance, or to consolidate contracting across multiple councils.  While it is possible to have political direction around some of these matters, none of this matches having financial and institutional incentives to optimise maintenance and performance,

On new projects there are five big factors that have influenced inflation in project costs:

1. Contractors do not think there is sufficient risk that large projects, once committed, will be cancelled or scaled down, so price accordingly. This is because the projects are explicitly politically identified, and contractors know that the risk of a politician cancelling a project because of cost, especially after a project has started, are low. Look at City Rail Link and Transmission Gully. Nobody was going to pull the plug on projects already underway because costs went up, and the New Zealand contracting market is too small to fear someone else being brought in to finish it. That's what happens when it is a politically-driven, not commercially-driven model of managing assets. By contrast, look at the M6 project in Sydney, which may be abandoned because the contractor is unwilling to complete the project under the current budget, following an unexpected collapse of part of the tunnel.
2. Gold-plating of projects to meet either institutional or political aspirations. The Northern Gateway toll road north of Auckland had its design speed increased and a tunnel included in its scope specifically because the agency involved wanted to "show off" what a great toll road the first new generation toll road would look like in New Zealand (the original design had a gully instead of a tunnel, and 80 km/h design speeds). Whether that was justified or not, the reasoning for doing it was nothing to do with economics, it was driven by a belief that the money would be spent anyway and for a Crown Agency to "show off" to the public. Likewise, insisting that the Northland Expressway is four lanes throughout with grade-separated interchanges its full length, amplifies costs with insufficient economic benefit to justify the cost.  There are very sound reasons to rescope (and indeed this used to happen in New Zealand from time to time).
3. The start-stop-start cycle of project development. The infrastructure sector advances this as the main reason, which is false, but it is an important factor. Long term strategies for corridors would help plan both the resourcing, sequencing and encourage competition in project delivery, so that equipment and skilled professionals could be guaranteed being occupied for a decade or longer. Starting and stopping projects is wasteful, unless of course, the projects were poor value in the first place (like Auckland Light Rail).  The presence of a long-term pipeline of economically viable project would be a good thing to help build a competitive industry and build capability.  A sector which sees commitments to projects appear and disappear depending on who is in power will charge more to manage that business risk.
4. Incremental growth in the costs of doing business. Part of it can be blamed on local government through the RMA, but it can be seen in the significantly higher amounts of planning, consultation and investigation work needed today compared to the 1990s. The process has become more complex, time consuming and seen a vast increase in the numbers of people involved in these projects. Some of this reflects increases in the cost of doing business, contracting and employment in the sector, due to incremental measures implemented by successive governments. However, the effects of this have been insufficiently appreciated (though this is also seen in construction more generally)
5. Rent-seeking behaviour by professional organisations in the sector. Competition has simply been insufficient. While there have been increased in construction costs, part of this has been opportunism for extracting greater profits from a sector that has been flush with money for some years. It has also been outrageous that the professionals involved in investigation and design work have increased their scope and fees at the same level, even though they don't face the increased input costs for construction.  On average it was always assumed that the pre-construction phases for major road projects were around 15% of the construction costs. Quite why these costs should increase at the same rate is unclear.
6. Higher labour costs for a shortage in professionals. There aren't enough technical experts to go around, and they are working in a global market for their experience. This is expensive for a country with a relatively low exchange rate, low GDP per capita, that is far away and has relatively high housing costs compared with say the United States.  However, having a steady stream of work for projects should help that over time.

The Infrastructure Commission notes:

The RoNS projects are expected to cost significantly more per kilometre than earlier New Zealand motorway and expressway projects, and significantly more than the OECD average. Indicative target cost ranges published by NZTA suggest costs should ideally be much lower. The Northwestern Busway is expected to cost much more than previous New Zealand busways, potentially exceeding the per-kilometre cost of many underground rail projects overseas. These cost increases constrain what can be delivered without displacing other needs.

The thing is, NZTA seems unable to fully understand why this is the case, let alone be able to contain these costs. 

Politicians have made the system worse

The entire system is not particularly well set up to challenge these, and since 1998 two major reforms have made it much worse:

• Creation of the New Zealand Transport Agency
• Almost complete politicisation of the National Land Transport Programme

In 1998, funding was decided by an arms-length independent funding agency called Transfund. It was small, nimble and focused on essentially buying the best value for money for maintenance and improvements to roads and public transport for motorists, who fully funded it through road user charges, fuel tax and motor vehicle registration and licensing fees. There was no Crown money from general taxation. The 1998 National Roading Programme was fully funded by road users, and money was allocated first to road maintenance, public transport subsidies and then whatever was left was available for capital improvements.  

The Clark Government merged it with the Land Transport Safety Authority in 2004 (then responsible for regulating drivers, vehicles and commercial vehicle operators, and managing the motor vehicle register and collecting road user charges).  Making the new agency - Land Transport New Zealand - a regulatory and funding agency. However it was in 2008 that it was merged with Transit New Zealand - the state highway manager - to make a land transport agency monolith - the NZTA. The National Land Transport Fund was now being allocated by the same agency which also is the largest spender of those funds.  No longer would the state highway manager have to be worried about convincing Transfund about what funding it needed, or on its performance, to justify funding it wanted.  NZTA funds itself.

That mistake would not have been quite so bad had the Clark Government not also all but destroyed the independence of NZTA through the Government Policy Statement (GPS) process of directing land transport funding. The GPS essentially politicised land transport funding, with the Minister of Transport able to simply direct how much money would go into whatever funding categories the Minister wanted.

That meant that three-yearly National Land Transport Programmes were politically directed.  From a system that rationed maintenance and focused on optimising maintenance so that capital spending could be maximised without degrading the road network, to a system whereby the whims of Ministers could redirect money where they saw fit.  Roads of National Significance,  public transport subsidies, rail projects, cycleways, whatever was wanted, could be funded. Furthermore, when Ministers or Governments changed, the whole programme was up for grabs. Projects might be cancelled and new ones started, with Ministers demanding to know "how soon" a project could be "shovel ready" to show progress, because once it started, it was hard to stop.

Imagine the incentives that puts on the contracting sector, both to please NZTA by getting work started, and to not be concerned about cost inflation once a project has commenced. It also sent a signal about investment in capital and professional staff through a political cycle.

The Infrastructure Commission puts it politely:

NZTA acts as both funder and deliverer of projects – combining functions previously kept separate. Between 1997 and 2008, one Crown entity (Transfund, renamed Land Transport NZ in 2004) was charged with administering transport funding and making investment decisions. Transit New Zealand was responsible for state highways and had to bid for funding alongside local road controlling authorities. Maintenance took precedence over new capital works, and only the highest-value projects were funded.

The Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS-LT) directs spending in the sector. Unlike other network providers that invest to meet demand, land transport investment is heavily influenced by the Government of the day’s objectives. The Minister of Transport determines funding ranges for expenditure categories through the GPS-LT, based on advice from the Ministry of Transport but without independent oversight. In recent years, Governments have also directed specific projects for delivery, leading providers to spend more than user revenues allow.

That was destroyed by the Clark Government, and the Key/English and Ardern/Hipkins Government did nothing to change this, but rather all doubled-down on growing the NZTA's role and functions, and demanding ever more money be spent on their "objectives".

So what next?

The 1998 warning was part of an announcement to radically reform how roads would be funded and managed. They would become businesses, like state owned enterprises. They would be paid by users, directly. They could borrow against that money for new projects. They would be subject to regulatory oversight, and it would have removed ratepayer funding for roads. There would have been maybe eight local road companies, and they would have been expected to make a profit and pay company tax. 

Obviously that didn't happen, and there is little sign of it being revived, but there does need to be a change... more on that to come...

UPDATE: Corrected earlier PT figure estimate which was too high.

Is New Zealand a capitalist command economy?

Head of Lifestyle Economics at the UK's Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a free-market thinktank, has written an excellent piece at The Critic called "On Britain as a capitalist command economy". 

The central hypothesis is that the UK is both far removed from being a free-market economy with a small state and light-handed regulation, and from being a state-owned economy run by bureaucratic, politically driven trading departments.  It is worth reading in whole!  

He describes the conundrum of how to describe the UK economy...

The left call it neoliberal but neoliberals have had no meaningful influence on British governments for thirty years. The right call it socialist but neither the Tories nor Labour have shown much interest in seizing the means of production. Keir Starmer’s government is more left-wing than he wants you to believe, but even if he renationalises the rail and water companies, it will be a nostalgic gesture rather than a heartfelt effort to control the heights of industry. Only on the fringes of the left is there any desire to return to the days when British Airways, Jaguar and Thomas Cook were under “democratic control”.

Arguably New Zealand isn't much different.  Of course the Greens, TPM and parts of Labour will say the country is under the oppressive yoke of neo-liberalism, their latest scapegoat "billionaires" and "foreign capital", and of course people like me will rail against the "commie kids" on the left in Parliament, and in local government, but there's little real evidence of NZ embarking on Douglas/Richardson Mk. 2 or becoming the DDR under the last government.

Jim Bolger put the brakes on free-market liberalisation and shrinking of government after the 1993 election, although the direction of travel largely remained the same until 1999 when the Clark Government starting turning things back - notably by passing legislation to cancel the contracts of private ACC employer account providers to return ACC to a state monopoly insurer.  Clark followed by renationalising Air NZ and the Railways, setting up a state retail bank (Kiwibank) raising income taxes and vastly expanding the welfare state with "Working for Families". The Key Government did little to change this trajectory, and the Ardern/Hipkins Government doubled down, with significant spending increases (even leaving aside the Covid response), and increasing both the size of the public sector and scale of regulatory intervention in the private sector.

On the face of it, the post-Thatcher settlement has held, but there is nothing Thatcherite about this government, nor the ones that preceded it. 

Likewise in NZ. It's not to say the Douglas/Richardson (note it isn't the PMs noted for these reforms) reforms have been unwound. New Zealand isn't returning to rampant protectionism, nor has Labour embarked on vast renationalisation (the Government isn't going to get a national bus company, shipping company, hotel network or life insurance company), but what has happened is an accretion of central command and control.  The UK of course has long had it with the Town and Country Planning Act, the single biggest act constraining housing supply and enabling local government to be the greatest NIMBYs in the UK's history. It was passed in 1947!  New Zealand has only had the Resource Management Act since 1991 (passed during the height of Ruth Richardson's reforms, but inherited from Labour led by Geoffrey Palmer - which speaks volumes), but it too had kneecapped housing supply, inflated the cost of infrastructure and is only now with a chance of being replaced with something a bit less worse.

Snowdon writes about price caps introduced in the UK on energy, the Starmer Government's ban on "no-fault evictions" of tenants and enabling legal challenges on rent increases. 

He highlights the nonsense of the Equality Act in the UK, which is being used to impose "pay equity" claims of the sort Brooke Van Velden has put a stop to, much to the chagrin of retired former politicians. 

the Equality Act ... stipulates that men and women should be paid the same salary if they do work of “equal value”. Grotesquely over-interpreted by activist judges, this led to the bankruptcy of Birmingham City Council and 16 months of strikes after it was ruled illegal for (mostly male) dustmen and gravediggers to be awarded bonuses when (mostly female) cleaners and carers were not. ..

In the Next case, it was revealed that the company offered its 25,000 retail staff a chance to work in the warehouse but only seven took up the offer (three of whom walked out within a year). Despite one of the claimants admitting that she didn’t find the prospect of working in a noisy warehouse appealing but would have considered it if she was offered a lot more money, the company still lost.

The process used to determine what was "equal value" is what Snowdon describes as "that looks like something from a Marxist professor’s fever dream to decide the value of an employee’s labour."  This diagram is the basis for a bureaucratic central planner's view of how people's pay should be set, which bears zero reference at all to how many people want to do the job for the pay offered.  Have you seen a single politician or journalist in New Zealand outline how ridiculous this is? This is exactly the outcome of the philosophy of the capitalist command economy.

Snowdon describes it as essentially the application of activist state seeking to remould capitalism to meet centrally determined goals:

An activist state is systematically coercing the private sector in the pursuit of a range of social engineering goals, all of which are implicitly assumed to be more important than the economy. It is a form of central planning, albeit with a patchwork of different plans rather than one overarching goal.

Following on from my previous post, this is exactly what you can see from the Opportunity Party, whose leader "stepped into the world of... purpose-driven business". The purpose you can be sure is not why people and other businesses risked capital in the business, it's a purpose that is mostly about signalling virtue, and just chips away at its competitiveness, its resources to respond to consumers and competitors (especially in economies that don't have this sort of regulatory impost).

It's commonplace for people to refer to the People's Republic of China as a "communist" country. While it is led by the Communist Party, and has a great deal of central command and control, in many aspects it lets private enterprise run rip and be competitive, especially when exporting and seeking to win against foreign rivals. While it has plenty of state owned enterprises it directs and controls, it is less interventionist in the private sector.  You see China actually cares about economic growth and development, because it works.

In the UK and across much of the developed world, governments are far more concerned about social engineering goals. Snowdon notes Net Zero (regardless of cost) which in the UK sees car retailers fined for selling too many cars that people want (petrol or diesel powered) relative to cars fewer people want (EVs).  The market doesn't price goods the politicians want people to buy cheaply enough, and the public don't want to pay more for them, so the politicians penalise companies selling people what they want.  The Ardern Government did this more softly by taxing the cars people wanted to subsidise the ones the government wanted people to buy. It did it by implementing US style government procurement rules to preference responses to tenders that included Maori enterprises, just because of their ownership, regardless of the value the enterprises offered to taxpayers relative to others. 

Snowdon notes how far the public health lobby has gone in the UK (and it's obvious the same lobby in NZ wants similar steps):

Supermarkets have already been banned from offering multi-buy price discounts on “less healthy” food and are prohibited from displaying these products in certain parts of their shops. Wes Streeting plans to go even further and start fining supermarkets for selling too many calories.

I don't think New Zealand is quite so bad. A cursory look at economic statistics indicates:

- State spending as a proportion of GDP is 41% in NZ, 44% in the UK

- Tax as a proportion of GDP is 27% in NZ, 35% in the UK

- Public debt as a proportion of GDP is 41% in NZ, 98% in the UK.

It's notable that many of the command and control steps in the UK haven't been followed in NZ, although some of these were stopped with the removal of the Hipkins Government.

However, the approach of regulatory control of the private sector remains at the heart of what the Wellington bureaucracy advances to meet social goals, and it has widespread support in academia.  Some elements of the capitalist command economy remain very much in place.

Even with its replacement, the Resource Management Act will still not put private property rights first, and will still mean local government very much is in command.  

The electricity industry remains a weird blend of a market economy, with significant state investment, constrained by the planning system, which neither resembles a free market (given how difficult it is to build new generating capacity, and the state majority owning three quarters of the sector), nor a socialist system (as there is not a monopoly state provider). The previous ban on new oil and gas production (which in the current environment seems absurd) was purely an exercise in social engineering and virtue signalling, to show off a commitment to "Net Zero" even though it made virtually no impact on such targets (and no impact on climate change).  However it certainly scared off new investment in the sector, fearing a change in government could ban its industry once again.

While supermarket competition is not what some would wish, this is largely due to the planning system, although there remain calls to split up the industry in ways unheard of in other countries, with even the Finance Minister having floated it, and it still being a "live" policy with some political parties.  The fact this was even considered by a purportedly centre-right government indicates how far from the 1980s and 1990s NZ has gone. 

New Zealand lacks the compulsory centralised pay bargaining seen in Australia, which bears the cost of it because the wealth generated from mining is so significant, the loss in productivity is diluted.  However, it was only a change in government in 2023 that stopped it being implemented in NZ. 

So I'd say New Zealand isn't quite as far down the path of regulatory sclerosis as the UK, but that is not because of a lack of will to continue down that path. You can see it in Labour, the Greens and the Opportunity Party, as well as within the glance of part of the National Party and NZ First to seek to add "just another" regulation to make business have "purpose" to meet the politicians' goals.

The fascists of the 1930s (actual fascists, not David Seymour) didn't advance communist style nationalisation of the economy because they preferred to use regulation and state control over business and industry to meet their goals. The word is vastly overused by the far-left, but its approach philosophically is not a million miles away from the bureaucratic command and control state regulating capitalism to meet the lofty ambitions of politicians.

One thing is for sure, it sure isn't a free-market capitalist economy.

The climaxes of those who absolutely love expensive and scarce oil

There are people absolutely loving the price of fuel going up and eager for there to be fossil fuel shortages. It’s getting them terribly agitated, in a quasi-sadistic scolding way. “Told them so” said one, “those car fascists are going to pay” said one politician, “if only there were cycleways, the teachers and nurses would use them to get to work” said an earnest unionist. “It’s ironic that the white supremacist genocidal Zionists are helping up” said keffiyeh wearing angry woman.

It started online of course, chatting together getting all excited. “Shortages will show them we were right all along, public transport is better, that’s why we need to tax people more to make it free” said the urban planner. “The people, well I mean they aren’t really human are they, that own Ford Rangers or RAM are going to feel it bad, and they’ll realise how uncool and hate filled such vehicles are” shouted the Greenpeace staffer. “Child murderers!” cried out the neurodiverse kindness campaigners. “They’re not all ACT or Winston supporting straight white men who don’t have degrees though right?” said the elder gentleman who once marched against apartheid”. “No, but 90% of them are” said the suspicious purple haired non-binary student. The university lecturer noted “Look this will expose the far-right white supremacist Zionist Trumpist terror supporters to the mass of good people who support a powerful exemplar of decolonising resistance”, before the photographer yawned and said “steady on now, we need to be practical if we are to free people from the car addiction they don’t want.

A failed list candidate said “Great, even though the climate destroying far-right scum are in power, it’s election year and can get The People on our side.  We can finally show people how wonderful it is to share journeys with others on public transport, or enjoy being with nature in a cycleway”. A sick, sniffing one said “and it doesn’t matter about the Nazi Ranger drivers, all we need is for the Greens to give Labour enough of a boost to kick out Peters and Seymour”.

I might jest, but they really are almost tumescent in their excitement. 

This is the chance, the central planners can take more taxes, they can impose new rules, they can spend more of your money and direct the poor “addicted” car users to the more enlightened future of more public transport use, more cycling, more walking and of course freight should go by rail.  Not having convinced enough people that abandoning driving was necessary to save the planet, they think they can convince people that it is for their own good to abandon their transport choices.  

What do they want? You don’t even need to ask it’s all pretty clear:

• Make driving less attractive. Slower speed limits, remove general traffic lanes, remove parking, tax cars more.

• Tax you more (now or later) to subsidise public transport even more with cheaper fares, despite demand being up and the cost of providing services going up as well.

• Tax you more to subsidise rail freight, because businesses that use it already need a helping hand from… you.

• Tax you more to subsidise people who can afford to buy new cars to buy EVs, and for other people to buy e-bikes. 

Lunatic fringe academic Timothy Welch is one of these people . He’s a senior lecturer in urban planning, which of course is something we need much less of.  He gets republished by leftwing media because he plays to its unconscious bias, as he really knows little about the commercial side of the transport sector and is keen to selectively quote data as facts to support his own point of view.  His claims are mostly value judgment nonsense. 

His latest piece of polemic sees him supporting taxing buyers of petrol vehicles to subsidise buyers of EVs (it wasn't long ago he was bemoaning EVs saying "EVs require the same amount of road space and, due to their increased weight, potentially cause more road damage. But EV owners don’t buy petrol, which means they don’t pay excise tax – the same tax that pays for expanding roads". EV's don't cause more road damage, but then after the Government put EVs onto road user charges he bemoans it making EVs "less competitive".  More generally he supports making new vehicles more expensive (through the “Clean Car Standard”) which helps ensure the vehicle fleet stays older for longer, but Welch doesn’t like cars at all.  He loved that fewer utes and SUVs sold under the Clean Car Standard.  He bemoans the car ownership rate of 815 cars per 1000 people “one of the highest in the world”.  This should be celebrated that so many can afford a car and have the freedom it provides (urban planners aren't big on this), but he ignores that NZ is larger than the UK with 8% of the population. He claims that every decade there is an oil shock, which isn't really true, but even when it happens that all dies down (remember people like him warned us of Peak Oil? That was until fracking discovered more).  The 1979 oil shock one provoked Rob Muldoon to advance Think Big, and every single one of those projects turned out to be a net drain on the economy, because in a few years oil prices dropped right back. Welch doesn’t let that stop his excitement for reducing car ownership.  He finishes with this absurdity:

Every bus electrified, every cycleway built, every train funded is a direct reduction in exposure to the next crisis. The question now is whether New Zealanders begin to treat their car dependence not as a lifestyle choice but as a strategic liability.

What utter rot. Unless the bus is taking people out of cars, and unless a cycleway takes enough people out of driving cars to offset its cost of construction, it does nothing to reduce exposure.  He advocates fully taxpayer funded public transport, which has been shown in multiple examples (e.g. Tallinn, Estonia) to largely replace walking instead of driving (in Tallinn car use dropped 5%, but walking dropped 40%, and car mode share climbed back up because public transport was overcrowded with people riding it for short trips). 

There’s photographer Patrick Reynolds made a name for himself as an urbanist, and has for some years been an activist for the Green-left’s war on private motoring. This is why he was appointed to be board of NZTA in the first term of the Ardern Government, as the Greens strongly advocated for him.  He’s positively excited about the crisis on the Green Party Greater Auckland blog. He says we should think strategically (i.e. don’t just react to the crisis, but think of the “long term”).  His next step is to “rapidly reduce demand” and to “ensure an equitable path”. He said we are “structurally addicted” to driving. Curiously he floats the idea of lower speed limits for everyone but EV drivers, which is nonsense of course. Of course he doesn’t talk about aviation or shipping because These are blind spots because, by and large, governments don’t tax you to pay for their infrastructure, vehicles or services, because you’re willing to pay for them yourself (directly or indirectly through freight).

Of course it is now rounded off by the Greens. Chloe Swarbrick has, finally, taken time out shouting for the destruction of Israel and touting Hamas propaganda to demand "free" public transport and a new tax.

This wont excite the car hating mob though. Nothing gets them over the top quite as much as penalising car driving. Cars, the epitome of individual freedom, expensive capital assets that exist purely to sit idle for the owner to use when wanted, to go when and where they want to go.  So unlike public transport which is planned (!) and scheduled and directed to be a sharing experience, not so fast, not so direct and not so "selfish".  

And No.  Unlike the control freaks, I really don't care how you get around, or how goods get around, as long as people pay for it themselves.  No modes of transport are "bad" or "good", they just are well suited for different purposes. For as long as this fuel crisis continues, people will respond to the price signals in the ways they want.  Some will drive a bit less, some may buy vehicles that use less or no fuel, some will ride public transport, some will bike and some will walk.  Most people are quite happy buying their own cars, fares, bikes and shoes, and the way it SHOULD work, is the more people buy of one mode, the more that can be provided.

Funny how the planners don't really think that should be the way isn't it?

UPDATE: Oh look another one, this time from Professor Alistair Woodward, from the University of Auckland's Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, who RNZ conveniently cited without counter-argument that there should be regulations on people buying vehicles he thinks are bad.  The public health lobby's appetite for micro-managing what everyone does, because a small handful engage in bad behaviour has no end.

SH1 improvements in Wellington - a lot to like, but it wont complete the job

So this was a quick couple of hours of thoughts... Feedback to NZTA is due by Sunday 14 December if you are interested.

Background information is here (PDF)

A video flythrough is here 

Apologies, I've been following this whole segment of road for far too long, from growing up being driven through Mt Victoria Tunnel, to some work on the Inner City Bypass 20 odd years ago to living near the tunnel today.

....

The Government’s proposal for a 2nd Mt Victoria Tunnel, 2nd Terrace Tunnel, reconfiguration of the roads around the Basin Reserve and widening of Vivian St is the latest set of proposals to fix the unfinished business of the Wellington Urban Motorway.  We will see whether all, some or any of it proceeds, but for the sake of Wellington at least some of it should (specifically the tunnels), because the status quo, notwithstanding the largely evidence free claims of Green Party politicians, is an absurd waste of time and energy in a city of this size.

History

It wouldn’t be hard to write a book about the history behind all of this, which started with then US consultancy firm De Leuw Cather, preparing a “transportation master plan” for Wellington. It considered the option of a waterfront motorway (see Seattle and San Francisco for now demolished versions of this), but preferred what was known as the Foothills Motorway. It follows the existing motorway, with two instead of one Terrace Tunnel (3 lanes each way), with 2 lanes continuing on a motorway going under and over various streets and, initially, demolishing the Basin Reserve for a motorway interchange, before finishing up at a second Mt Victoria Tunnel (2 lanes each way using the existing tunnel). De Leuw Cather also proposed placing the Wellington commuter rail service underground to Courtenay Place, through the reclamation land.  Of course that latter proposal wasn’t going anywhere, but the motorway started from Ngauranga (not connected to Ngauranga Gorge, but rather as just an extension of the Hutt Road from the Hutt). In the 1960s and early 1970s, the motorway cut a swathe through Thorndon and Kelburn, with much of a cemetery dug up and interred in a mass grave (don’t think that this was an era of much consecration to Christian religious values). However, the 1974 oil crisis (entirely stemming from the Yom Kippur War) saw a slowing down of the project, with the Muldoon Government ultimately deciding that it (and multiple other road projects) would be terminated at Willis Street, with the segment from Bowen Street south halved in scope. One Terrace Tunnel, one lane southbound, two lanes northbound.

At the time, with the motorway only being SH2 (SH1 still being the Hutt Road from Ngauranga to Aotea Quay, and continuing along the waterfront to the termination point of Jervois Quay and Taranaki Street), this made some sense. It was never congested, and the scale of traffic through Te Aro was easily handled by the Vivian St/Ghuznee Street one way pair. 

In 1983 the Ngauranga Interchange changed all that, by around doubling traffic on the motorway, the end of the motorway became a bottleneck, exacerbated by the single lane in the tunnel. Further bottlenecks existed with Ghuznee Street and Buckle Street, with the dog leg route from the Basin Reserve to the motorway being utterly unsuitable for the traffic volumes going through it.  This situation persisted for 12 years.

Meanwhile, a scaled back proposal to ease the traffic pressure came from the then National Roads Board. A motorway extension designed as an arterial highway with 70km/h speed standards. The original plan to destroy the Basin Reserve for a motorway interchange (which had been shelved some years previously) was replaced with a highway bridge across the northern boundary of the park.  The Terrace and Mt Victoria Tunnels would be linked by a fully grade separated highway going under Willis and Victoria Streets, severing Cuba Street (except for a pedestrian bridge), passing over Taranaki Street before darting under Tory and Sussex Streets. One lane would extend from Mt Victoria Tunnel under Sussex Street to join a second lane from the south. Whereas one lane would exit at the Basin to Cambridge Terrace and Dufferin St, with one lane extending to Mt Victoria Tunnel.  

1980 scaled down motorway extension proposal before it got dropped in a trench in 1991

Fully trenched but not covered in this brutalist image that looks like it was designed to kill it

The next decade or so would see the project rise up the regional priority rating, as other projects were built: Upper Hutt Bypass, Mungavin Interchange, Silverstream-Manor Park 4-laning etc, but then the funding system for roads was reformed. The Ministry of Works was abolished, and shortly thereafter, Ruth Richardson slashed funding for roads. At the time, funding was mostly allocated based on a cost/benefit analysis, with 25 year return periods. For around two years funding was not even sufficient to keep up with maintenance, and as the 90s progressed, the Wellington Urban Motorway arterial extension went up in cost and was always borderline for funding. However, it always had a BCR of over 2 when the threshold for funding was 5 or 4. 

At the same time the nascent Green Party campaigned vehemently against it.  To try to address concerns the project was first redesigned to be trenched the whole way across Te Aro, then put in a cut-and-cover tunnel to the bridge on the north of Basin (called Tunnellink).  However, it was clear by the mid 1990s that funding wasn’t likely for over a decade. So a three stage project was advanced. First a simple one-way pairing of Buckle and Vivian Street, followed by what is now known as Karo Drive. Karo Drive literally took around 12 years from its inception to opening, largely because of the opposition to it by the Green Party spreading vast amounts of misinformation. Then Green MP Sue Kedgley always called it a “motorway extension”, and eventually when it got funded by Transfund, and all legal avenues under the RMA to stop it were exhausted, it got built.  It was only meant to be a ten year stopgap until the Tunnellink could be built.

However, by then Transit NZ (later to be merged with Transfund and the Land Transport Safety Authority) had largely given up on the idea of a cut and cover tunnel.  So the next step was to fix the Basin Reserve, and plus ça change it was stopped by an organised campaign of the Greens and Mt Victoria NIMBYs. This was for a two-lane 50km/h one lane bridge clear of the Basin Reserve, westbound. 

2001 - preferred Basin grade separation without Tunnellink

2008 - one of the options for the Basin Bridge 

At the tail end of the Key/English Government there was a commitment to a second Mt Victoria Tunnel, but of course that all was stopped under the Ardern Government, as the Greens made sure that the Let’s Get Wellington Moving project would prioritise emission reductions, and put little value on reducing general traffic congestion. 

The Ardern/Hipkins Government did support a second tunnel, but it was to close the existing tunnel to motor vehicle traffic, and build a new one with four-lanes, two for buses. In short, no relief for general traffic.

What’s been proposed?

So here we are today with essentially five main elements to upgrading SH1 through Wellington. Once again the Greens are talking about “building a motorway through Wellington” which it absolutely does not do. It doesn’t build one metre more of motorway, but it does widen one section along an existing motorway corridor. The five elements are:

- Second Terrace Tunnel

- Upgrading SH1’s one-way pair through Te Aro

- Basin Reserve reconfiguration

- Second Mt Victoria Tunnel

- Widening eastern approach roads to Mt Victoria Tunnels.

Second Terrace Tunnel:  This is sensible, because it will the single biggest measure to remove 20% of traffic from the waterfront route. It is on a smaller scale than the original proposal (will be two-lanes not three southbound and the existing tunnel will only be two-lanes northbound), but should not be controversial.  What will constrain it is…

Upgrading SH1 through Te Aro: Reversing forty years of planning, Te Aro will still be blighted by heavy highway traffic pushing through it, by widening Vivian Street (which has been designated on the Wellington District Plan for many years) to three lanes one way.  As a stopgap this is satisfactory from a traffic flow point of view. but is hardly a long-term solution. It should have a cut-and-cover tunnel along the line of Karo Drive, which would be expensive and disruptive, but would be transformational for Te Aro. A proper bypass would make a huge difference, but for now with the two tunnels being the major bottlenecks, that idea isn’t progressing. In short, this will be the new bottleneck, exposing the greatest number of pedestrians (and traffic) to delays and emissions. It’s the cheap part of the package, and it will need to be addressed at a later date.

What’s disconcerting is that there is little future proofing to enable a solution to his, especially with this proposal…

Basin Reserve reconfiguration: There is no shortage of options designed to fix this problem, which is essentially the need to separate east-west traffic from north-south traffic, while also allowing it to interchange.  The latest proposal partially separates traffic, but it means the same number of traffic light controlled intersections westbound and eastbound on SH1. See below:

No doubt clearing Mt Victoria Tunnel congestion will improve eastbound flows, but it is far from clear that retaining a network of pedestrian controlled traffic lights and keeping SH1 at ground level in front of the Basin Reserve will not create new bottlenecks, and worsen the concentration of traffic/emissions across the northern side of the Basin. The Rugby/Dufferin Street sections outside the schools will be quieter, but be a ratrun for traffic from the city to SH1 west, and from Newtown to SH1 east. The big winner is north-south traffic to and from Newtown towards the city.

No doubt there will be a net improvement, but it is clear from the proportion of benefits of the total package that this is where not much will be gained. What’s particularly concerning is that it doesn’t look like it provides for future proofing building a parallel eastbound pair of lanes to take traffic from Vivian Street and over to the second Mt Victoria Tunnel. I understand the reluctance to elevate SH1 near the Basin, but it could be done by elevating Sussex Street over SH1 and building an artificial hill to carry the road with significant mitigation of the visual and noise impacts of a bridge. This is a mess. The new Green Link looks like it is preserving an option, or maybe it is preventing it.

Second Mt Victoria Tunnel: This is like past proposals and is entirely suitable as a solution to this problem. It is a shame that westbound its capacity will be constrained by unnecessary intersections at the Basin.

Widening eastern approach roads:  Four-laning Ruahine St and Wellington Rd (six lanes at points) has long been the right approach, but the design of intersections seems bizarre indeed. Grade separating at Hataitai Park (to a new road where houses currently exist) seems over the top. The removal of Taurima St access to Mt Victoria Tunnel needs a solution, as does access to Hataitai Park, but why is this intersection getting such lavish treatment, but Wellington Rd/Ruahine St (which enables access from Newtown to the airport, from Hataitai to Newtown, and for access to southern Newtown to and from SH1 bypassing the bottleneck in front of the Hospital) is curtailed to simple slip lanes in one direction only? The latter should be a full scale intersection. Previous plans simply had an elaborate intersection at Goa Street, although there is some merit in having grade separation, it seems odd that a low traffic intersection gets it, but not the much heavier traffic ones at Kilbirnie Crescent and Evans Bay Parade (although imagine the outcry if that were proposed). 

There are lots of minor details in this section which make access between Kilbirnie, SH1 and Hataitai worse, presumably to save money from more comprehensive wider intersections. Much of this looks worse for residents. In particular, anyone driving from Newtown to the airport will weirdly have to drive through Kilbirnie’s CBD (but not in the other direction). Anyone driving from Hataitai to Newtown will either have to go through Mt Victoria Tunnel to ratrun past the stands at the Basin Reserve, or go into Kilbirnie and ratrun up Duncan Tce. (a narrow street with poor visibility at the top). 

This is all details though in intersection design, which I expect locals to have their views on. The Greens are claiming a big increase in traffic in Moxham Avenue will occur, but that’s mostly a shift from Taurima Street and the existing intersection on Ruahine Street.

Thinking more widely

There is talk of tolling the route, although no details have been presented, it is difficult to envisage it not simply being at the tunnels. On its own this would have merit if the whole proposal enabled free flow traffic all the way. It doesn’t.  Paying a toll to drive through the Terrace Tunnel to end up at Vivian Street isn’t a compelling proposition, and would divert local traffic from the tunnel to The Terrace.  Likewise paying to use Mt Victoria Tunnel to reach a pair of traffic light controlled junctions by the Basin Reserve. A full scale freeflow bypass would be another proposition, offering a high value fast trip, but that isn’t what is proposed.

On the other hand, a central Wellington congestion pricing scheme within the boundaries of SH1, which helps pay for this, would have much more merit as it would reduce traffic towards the city at peak times, and enable better flow of traffic around it.  An AM peak inbound, PM peak outbound price for driving in and out of Wellington on weekdays would have some merit.

Much has been raised about the BCRs of the project, but although I put some value on economic analysis, when it comes to tunnels, the return period for them is much longer than any conventional highway or bridge. Tunnels last almost forever once dug, and only need moderate upgrades throughout their existence.  So I treat the two tunnels as very long term investments in addressing the resilience of the city’s transport network, and enabling a future full scale bypass of the city.

Claims from the likes of the Greens that “car tunnels” (a deliberate misinformation campaign to diminish the role of freight and buses) will just induce more traffic are largely nonsense, especially if congestion pricing is introduced in parallel. There is no more capacity that will be build north of Ngauranga Interchange, so more traffic cannot be attracted from that direction, and with much of the traffic on the route bypassing the city, little of that is going to be attracted from public transport to driving. Modern cities have good bypasses, Wellington has lacked it for decades. 

So I’m in favour of the tunnels, in favour of the widening east of Mt Victoria Tunnel (with some caveats), but the upgrade through Te Aro is cheap and nasty, and needs to make provision for something better once the two tunnels are built. It will be obvious the city needs a proper bypass. The Basin Reserve proposal is messy and poor value. It’s unclear why north-south traffic going in a four-lane trench is better than being on a four-lane bridge over the east-west traffic, and why so many light controlled intersections should be kept. It should be reconsidered.

And for the opponents...

"A City for People" is, of course, a Green Party oriented activist site (they always claim to be non-partisan, even though the members are largely not) ideologically and philosophically aligned to the other Green oriented activist ginger groups (which have a lot of interchangeable members) like Generation Zero, Parents for Climate Aotearoa, Cycle Wellington, Women in Urbanism, Renters United and the Sustainability Trust.  

The propaganda inference is that if you don't support their policies, you don't want a "city for people". It's a shade of the People's Republics, which imply if you oppose them, you're opposed to The People.  While I have some support for their campaign to enable more intensification, this isn't a group in favour of more freedom and less government. It is not in favour of people who want to drive, or people who ship goods or deliver goods. 

It claims "A whole generation of people are being forced out from the city spending hours every day in traffic jams".  While I have  lot of sympathy about housing prices, the idea that people in Wellington are spending "hours every day in traffic jams" is nonsense. 

It states:

The cost of this project is truly bananas. Per kilometre it’s the most expensive roading project in the entire country. It’s $2.9-3.8 billion (with a B - looks like this).

And it’s all about a relatively small aspect of Wellington’s transport problems: private-car congestion at selected times.

It makes no attempt to fix what will make the most difference to people (and LGWM’s origin story): the bus-network that’s already at capacity and hamstrung by being stuck in general traffic.

Even just for general traffic congestion, this project is jumping to a platinum-plated mega project solution before we’ve tried all the other things first.

It could do irreparable harm to Wellington, just as we’re starting the transition to being a real city.

It IS expensive, but tunnels are. I'd note that the Let's Get Wellington Moving project to build a single tram line to Island Bay and a second Mt Victoria Tunnel that added no new road capacity (but freed up the existing tunnel entirely for cycling and walking, and added lanes for buses) was $7.4 billion.  That would have delivered a tram to Island Bay that would have been no faster than current bus services, and only modest relief to traffic congestion at the Basin Reserve.

The claim that the proposal is just about addressing "private car congestion" is misinformation, and minimises a situation that exists most of the day during weekdays and much of the weekends. It also affects bus congestion from the eastern and southern suburbs at the Basin and Kilbirnie Crescent. It isn't just cars, it's also trucks (the Greens pretend freight doesn't matter), taxis and rideshare services, besides the majority of trips undertaken in Wellington are by car, either as drivers or passengers.

It WILL fix bus network capacity issues, especially at the Basin Reserve, Kent Terrace and from the Eastern Suburbs, as traffic will flow much more freely, and take 20% of traffic off of the waterfront route.  It's wilful blindness to pretend otherwise (because these people think any new road capacity is malign).

The claim it is a "platinum plated mega project solution" before "we've tried all the other things first" is pejorative nonsense, especially from people who were happy to spend double that, mostly on a tunnel and tram line.  The only option that might help somewhat is road pricing, but the advocacy for that is muted. There is no realistic chance of significant modal shift for trips that bypass the city, because they have a diverse range of origins and destinations. Likewise, without an additional tunnel to the eastern suburbs, there will not be modal shift from there as buses cannot flow freely.  It's fair to object to spending a lot on transport infrastructure, but not when you're solutions are more expensive and require significantly more taxpayer cost over time to subsidise their operations.

The claim it could do "irreparable harm" to Wellington is pejorative hyperbole. The land for the second tunnels is hardly significant, part of it is within the motorway corridor in any case. 

Finally, their claims about the proposals are weak:

• It aims to “fix” traffic congestion by building a bigger road in the centre. Never, not ever, has this worked.
• If you look at the numbers for how LGWM’s package was going to “fix traffic”, it wasn’t the very expensive road-building that was going to do the heavy lifting: it was congestion charging (digital infrastructure and some gantries) and the second spine for public transport (paint, signage, timetabling). And the costs for civil construction (which this expansion project is all about) have rocketed since then.
• There are lots of flaws with the logic: smooth, faster-flowing traffic through the city centre while also somehow not worsening severance in Te Aro, and while also allowing lots of cars to turn on and off it…
• Its Cost-Benefit Ratio is already low (even with the extra-low discount rate now allowed to be used) and the Inner City Bypass was found to have been probably not worth the money spent on it (we lose more than we gain from having it) so it’s highly likely this will be worse given its far greater costs. The opportunity cost of this public money is dismaying.

First bullet is wrong. It is not a bigger road in the centre at all, and yes building new roads has fixed congestion in many cases, especially in smaller cities. Many cities have inner bypasses that work, such as Oslo, Berne and Bergen, and they DO relieve congestion.  The first motorway in New Zealand, the Johnsonville-Tawa segment, remains adequate for traffic at most times and there is NO proposal to widen it.  It's time that the oft-claimed "every new road induces traffic until it fills up" is tempered by reality that this is only true in some cases.

Yes, congestion charging will have a big impact on traffic, which is also being enabled by this government.  The second spine for public transport wont work effectively without a better bypass to take through traffic off the waterfront (and any good congestion charging scheme enables traffic to bypass it because public transport does not do well serving most demand that does not start or terminate in the central city).  Furthermore, just converting lanes on the waterfront to bus lanes will make congestion worse, which backs up to buses elsewhere in the network. 

The third bullet has a point. Not building a proper bypass under Te Aro will worsen the severance due to SH1, but the Greens spent years campaigning against a cut and cover tunnel under Te Aro to fix this.  Nothing will magically fix this problem, short of kneecapping the economy and demand for travel.

Yes it is a low value project, but it underestimates the real lifecycle benefits of tunnels (which last for much longer than any appraisal period).  It is fair to argue about the opportunity cost of the money, but then I don't think the people pushing this want people to pay lower taxes and spend the money themselves! The Greens opposed the project when it had BCRs of 2-5 in the 1990s, with a much higher discount rate and 25 year appraisal period.  It is difficult to believe that if it had a BCR of 5 or 10 the opposition would change, it is a blanket opposition to any new road capacity regardless of whether it is priced or not.

The whole wording of the opposition is childish and sneering towards people's choices.  The language that sneers at ""popping down to Moore Wilsons” and “going to pick the kids up cos it’s raining”" is misanthropic.  So what if people want to do that, as long as they pay at peak times.  Most people can't live within walking or cycling distances of where they want to go. 

These groups stopped Wellington getting a proper bypass in the 1990s and beyond, and the blight of having at at-grade SH1 through Te Aro is because of this philosophy. 

Could it be better? Yes. Should there be pricing? Yes.  Should it mean the tunnels shouldn't proceed? No.

Voting in the 2025 local election: Wellington City Council Mayor and Eastern Ward, Wellington Regional Council - Wellington constituency

This is half serious, half humourous, because let’s face it, a majority probably wont vote, and a fair number will vote for MORE council, MORE spending, MORE stopping people doing things they don’t like and MORE making people do things they want. A fair number of people look at candidates who use clichés like “sustainable”, “equitable” and “inclusive”, and go “oh yes more of that”.

NZ isn’t like the UK, where local elections happen every year (different councils) and most candidates are party political. Those elections are used by voters to send signals about central government, which is frankly nuts. There is next to no value in voting for candidates because you like the National-led government or you hate it, because by-and-large, it wont make much difference at all. Sure there are Labour, ACT and Greens candidates, which is useful if you know you like or don’t like the party, but unlike Parliament most people who are party aligned don’t caucus together or vote identically. 

In short, judge them as individuals more than their labels. 

For my sins, I’m in Eastern Ward, so I’ll run through the Mayor, the City Council Eastern Ward, the Regional Council Wellington Ward and finally the Maori Ward vote.

MAYOR

Let’s not elect Andrew Little. The failed unionist popinjay who is looking for a sinecure in the twilight of his political career doesn’t deserve to be Mayor of Wellington. He’ll be better than the nice but dim Tory Whanau, but so would most Councillors. He wont list making Ramallah a sister city as an “achievement”, but part of his campaign is about “making public transport cheaper” which is literally nothing to do with Wellington City Council. It is a Regional Council responsibility. So he’s a pontificating poseur. Wellington has a dearth of significant private businesses located in the CBD, and is suffering the closure of retail and hospitality as the city slowly decays. A man who’s spent his life fighting employers and private enterprise and oversaw the irrelevance of unions he came to lead is not the person to revitalise Wellington. The fact he led student unions, including of course opposing voluntary membership of student unions should consign him to the dustbin of history along with the Berlin Wall. Rank him second to last.

I’m ranking Josh Harford of the Aotearoa New Zealand Silly Hat Party first. He is one of the smartest people standing for Mayor, and his vision for optimism is a good one. Sure some might say he is a joke candidate (and he is far cleverer, more subversive and interesting that the nihilistic William Pennywize, and there are enough unfunny clowns about), and you might say I am chosing him because I know him (although he's not the only candidate I know). In all seriousness, if he got elected it would uplift the optimism and publicity for Wellington more than any other candidates combined. Imagine the headlines if Wellington elected a young man with a sense of humour, sense of drive, sound academic record and proven willingness to work well with people across political spectrums. Leftie journalists will highlight his ethnic minority heritage, which he does not and which does him credit. He is his own man, and really will revitalise the city.

Now we all know he isn’t sure thing, so who to rank after Harford? There are three other groups of candidates.  Lefties, righties and the ones you will laugh at.

Alex Baker is the Green candidate without being branded “Green” and talks in slogans. His priorities are “affordability” (which means rates, rents, house prices and transport costs – but it’s unclear how he can keep all of these down), “jobs” and “sustainability”. He wants land value rates, which on its own is worth considering, but he also wants to “complete the Golden Mile” (which will slow down bus services by eliminating the ability of buses to pass) and focus on bike and bus lanes to get the city “moving”, although there is no evidence this will make any material difference.  His focus on climate change action isn’t credible to control spending or promote business. His ambitions suggest he will spend more money. Rank him last. 

Scott Caldwell is to left and on X is known as the Scoot Foundation. He’s pretty smart, keen on more intensive development and is a housing abundance supporter. That’s good in itself. He’s dreaming if he thinks central government will pay more rates, he’s also dreaming to push an underground rail link through reclaimed land. However, having someone so pro-housing construction and antithetical to heritage protection is worth supporting over others. Rank him above Little.

Diane Calvert is a safe pair of hands and eyes on Council. She supports fiscal prudence and her Wellington Plan has a lot of merit. She wants to speed up consenting, focus on core services and maintaining assets and downscale the upgrade to Courtenay Place, and abandon the ludicrous Harbour Quays bus corridor proposal (which will worsen traffic and weaken the Golden Mile bus core). Sure, she’s no libertarian, no free-market liberal, but she’d be far more friendly towards revitalising the decaying private sector than Little. Rank her second or third.

Ray Chung’s entire campaign has been overshadowed by his ill-considered comments, from some time ago, about Tory Whanau. He's said a lot of things that get judged poorly in 2025, but the chap is 75. He’s committed to zero rates increases, which is ambitious, but a good goal, along with eliminating non-core activities. It’s difficult to disagree with that. Leftwing journalist from the Spinoff (!) Joel McManus did a hitjob on him which is hard to completely look past, and indicates he is unlikely to be the best choice for Mayor. He’s a useful Councillor as an antagonist to wasteful leftwing virtue signallers, but as Mayor he should be ranked below the better ones on the right. I’d put him above Little of course, but below Calvert and Tiefenbacher. 

Rob Goulden has been around forever, but having been banned from Taxpayer Union events, it’s indicative that he too angry and combative. Arguably he’s on the right, but it’s not clear what he really wants and that’s not worth giving time to. There’s a lack of detail around prioritisation, cutting spending and scrutinising expenditure. I’d put him above Little, but only just.

Kelvin Hastie is another leftwing candidate whose weaknesses include being an arts promoter and venue operator, indicating he is likely to spend more on the arts. He talks of “sustainable growth” (any growth would be nice), and is committed to “affordable housing” without saying how. The Spinoff claims he wants to sell council housing to first home buyers, and supports the long-tunnel under Te Aro proposal (which isn’t happening and Council wouldn’t fund anyway). He has no chance, but rank him above Little.

Donald McDonald is well known because nobody really understands what he is promoting, bless him. Still he seems harmless enough.

William Pennywize isn’t funny.

Joan Shi seems fairly sound, focusing on core infrastructure and a business friendly environment, but also talk about “affordable public transport” (not up to the City Council).  If she had a chance, I’d rank her reasonably, and certainly above Little, Goulden and Hastie, but not much depth here.

Karl Tiefenbacher has a solid record as an entrepreneur, and clearly has a chance as a centre-right candidate against Little. His support for faster consenting for housing, more scrutiny on the quality of cycle lane spending and constraining spending (and he understand the role of the City Council) makes him a strong contender. I’d rank him a strong third after Harford and Calvert. 

CITY COUNCIL EASTERN WARD

Three councillors need to be elected here.  Five are reasonable choices.

Ken Ah Kuoi: His name is dotted all over the ward, and is keen on fiscal prudence and focusing on “core services”, being part of the Independent Together team which is loosely affiliated. Fluent in Samoan as well. I’d rank him highly.

Alex Baker: See above. Don’t rank the Green in drag.

Chris Calvi-Freeman: He’s a bit of a leftie, but he knows transport policy well as a transport planner. He’d be an asset in Council and is pushing for the 2nd Mt Victoria Tunnel to have good facilities for al modes, which should not be controversial. He’s no ideologue on these matters, although his views on other subjects are less known. I’d rank him highly.

Trish Given: She’s a lot of a leftie. Promoting homes for all (how?), wants to future-proof the city against climate change (how?) and talks about a “fairer” city (which usually is coding for higher rates and more spending).  Her website indicates she wants a very active council, so she’ll support much higher rates and spending. Don’t rank her.

Rob Goulden: See above. You might prefer him over the green/left, but that’s it.

Luke Kuggeleijn: The sole ACT candidate is a young man keen on avoiding wasteful spending, like the Golden Mile project. Standing for ACT in this ward full of lefties is brave in itself, so rank him highly, he’ll need it, and if he wins he'll be a breath of fresh air to shake this Council up into being more efficient and smaller.

Michelle McGuire: As with Ah Kuoi, she is with Independent Together with the focus on core spending and rates control.  She has a private sector background. I’d rank her fairly highly.

Thomas G.P. Morgan: He has had nearly 30 years’ interest in local government, he uses his profile to talk about more… bus shelters.  He has a lot of ideas, but I’m unsure that’s what is needed. I’m not ranking him highly.

Sam O’Brien: The Labour candidate is an urban planner, which is reason enough to rank him very lowly.  He wants an affordable, accessible, resilient city, but clearly he wants to direct people’s property and businesses. He has a good chance of getting elected so rank him very low.

Jonny Osborne: A public servant standing for the Greens is enough to rank him the lowest. Like Andrew Little, he thinks he is standing for the regional council calling for “cheaper and reliable” public transport which is mostly regional not city council business. He’ll want more council and higher rates. Rank last.

Karl Tiefenbacher: See above, he’s worth a shot. Rank highly. He'll be an asset in Council.

WELLINGTON REGIONAL COUNCIL - WELLINGTON CONSTITUENCY

Five councillors to be elected here. It’s slim pickings. I can only get enthused about two, another three I might hold my nose and choose just to stop the hardened socialists.

Sarah Free: Was a Green City Councillor, now standing as an independent for the regional council.  She’s not the worst option, being obviously a leftie she’ll back rates increases and more council spending and control. However, I’d rank her above the actual Green and Labour candidates. Middling ranking.

Glenda Hughes: She was a regional councillor before losing last time, and is trying again. Centre-right (former Nat), fiscally conservative, former cop and media minder, she’s safer with ratepayers’ money than the lefties. She should be one of the top five.

Alice Claire Hurdle: ACT’s candidate is the only one clearly offering a change of direction. Wanting less red tape on farms and businesses, and cost effective transport solutions, she will be valuable in constraining the ever expansionist regional council. Rank her first.

Tom James: This Labour candidate has as his top priority “faster, cheaper and more reliable” public transport, which is going to mean higher rates. For him “tackling climate change needs to be at the heart of our council’s work”, not core infrastructure or addressing key local issues. This makes him likely to hike rates, restrict development and virtue signal. Rank very lowly.

Tom Kay: Green in drag. He cares about our communities and environment, wants us safe from the impacts of climate change, with “cheaper, faster” buses. He will focus on protecting and restoring streams, rivers and wetlands, and reducing emissions. We don’t need an environmental scientist making the regional council a greater drag on development, and hiking rates. Rank lowly.

Mark Kelynack:  It’s unclear really what he believes in, except much better public transport including a passenger reward scheme it seems. He seems practical, and the lack of ambition for the regional council doing more deserves a better ranking than the lefties. Maybe deserves to be in the top five.

Belinda McFadgen: Her career has been on environmental policymaking, science and law. She wants climate resilience, cost effective solutions and improving waterways. So she says she is evidence based, without the rhetoric of the lefties.  She’s in the middling group, maybe above Sarah Free.

Henry Peach: Worst of the Green candidates, just say no.

Daran Ponter: The Regional Council chair and Labour candidate, he’s the Andrew Little of the regional council. This former public servant who was involved in the expansion of local government powers with the “power of general competence” wants more regional council rates, power and control. It’s telling that the second thing he lists is “lifting driver wages”, as if that delivers outcomes for bus customers or ratepayers. He’s a socialist who wants to end competitive tendering for public transport, lowering farebox recovery for public transport, and restoring wetlands. He is part of the problem of a regional council that is inflating rates and its role.  Rank him very low.

Yadana Saw: Better of the Green candidates, but like all of the candidates (except Hurdle and Woolf) she is committed to hiking rates to increase pay above market rates at the council, and like Ponter talks of increasing public ownership of public transport, for ideological reasons (including the 18 new trains 90% funded by taxpayers through a central government she opposes). Just say no to her too.

Simon Woolf: By regional council standards he’s centre-right, but he’s really a centrist and quite sensible. Going to be much less keen on rates rises and ideological based expansion of the regional council’s functions. Rank him number two.

MAORI WARDS

Just say no. The last Maori ward city councillor won with only 872 votes. The lowest winning general ward city councillor had 2841 votes. It’s disproportionately unfair for there to be one councillor with so few votes having the same power as those with over three times as many. That’s without the more fundamental argument that it’s wrong to divide the electorate by ethnic identity, and treat that single councillor as the authentic voice of Maori in the city.  Politicians talk about reducing division and working collaboratively. In a liberal democracy, voters are represented by whoever is elected by their constituents, including those who many voters disagree with. STV enables preferences to get the most preferred candidates elected. Maori voters included, and their preferences will be as varied as any other voters.