Bureaucrats for the incoming government have voted for it, sort of. National came first, but add Labour and the Greens and it exceeds National and ACT.
National 11863
Labour 11339
Greens 6657
ACT 1403
NZF 531
United Future 351
Maori 272
Progressive 234
Bill and Ben 148
ALCP 73
Kiwi Party 72
Workers 33
Libertarianz 32
Family 29
Alliance 17
RAM 11
RONZ 6
Democrats 2
Pacific 2
Too early to compare with 2005, need specials for that!
09 November 2008
Dear John Key
John
Well done, you've produced National's best result since 1990 and Labour's worst since 1996. I know you did it by essentially agreeing to much of what Labour has done, but still after 9 years it was an achievement to fight your first election as leader and win. Now you have the hard task of pleasing a few million people during a recession, with their expectations you'll fix the economy, their kids' education, their healthcare and improve law and order. You've promised to spend more of other people's money, but give some back too. Now I didn't vote National this time, as is bound to be obvious but I am glad you defeated Helen Clark - it is time for change, and your chance is now to make positive changes that both advance New Zealand, and promote a New Zealand less dependent on the state.
So I dare to give you 10 small pieces of advice:
1. Do not give Peter Dunne a Cabinet post or seek a confidence and supply agreement with him. 0.89% of the vote is not deserving of it. You don't need him as much as he wants you. He spent the last 6 years giving Labour confidence and supply, and his party is finished as a force. Make him Speaker - he has been in the House a long time, and this role would suit him. It also enables you to deal to the pointless Families Commission, and not build Transmission Gully without being held to ransom by one man.
2. Talk to Rodney Hide and Sir Roger Douglas about their roles. You need them and one of them should be in Cabinet. Hide would be easier for you, because Douglas would drive you all nuts - but Douglas should have a role. ACT will support you on law and order and tax cuts, but it needs something more - may I suggest dealing to the RMA, cleaning out bureaucracies and education vouchers as useful steps.
3. Don't enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Maori Party, but do enter into a dialogue and consultation arrangement. The Greens had this with Labour. It will pull the Maori Party into the tent, and teach them and you both very much. It isn't a chance to sell out, you have a mandate for change towards more frugal government, but it is a chance to undermine the Labour-Maori relationship of dependence.
4. Be careful who gets what Cabinet positions. May I make a few suggestions:
i. Nick Smith should not get environment/RMA, building/construction, conservation or climate change. The man is a Labour MP in very poor drag, his seat has more votes for Labour and the Greens combined than National. He will do nothing to the RMA to raise NZ's competitiveness or protect private property rights, he has never had a real job, a politician since his teens. Give him Corrections and Defence, if he needs something.
ii. Give education to someone who can fight the teachers' unions to the bitter end. Lockwood Smith is not that person. It should be a woman.
iii. Give transport to Maurice Williamson, he had a healthy hatred of the LTSA when he was Minister, and given how nationalised it became under Labour you need someone who can have it face the other way. Yes he went on about tolls, but he knows this area well.
5. Scrap the 39% top tax rate along with your tax cuts. ACT will support you, and any flack you think you'll get will fade away over the next three years. NZ$60,000 a year is not rich and it will be a huge sign that New Zealand wants its best and brightest back. Tackle the vile envy factor head on, you know how.
6. Delay the RMA fastracking for government projects and conduct a bottom up review of why you need that legislation. Let Rodney Hide do it. Start with first principles, start with private property rights and think carefully about transitional provisions, and while you're at it, read this.
7. Invite the Chief Executives of all government agencies to meet with the respective Minister, yourself and Rodney Hide. Ask the Chief Executive to explain in 5 minutes why the agency should remain, another 5 minutes to justify its current budget, another 5 minutes to outline what would happen if it closed up shop tomorrow. Those who don't satisfy you should be informed as such and either closed down or budgets slashed. Have a small group of Ministers and advisors go through budgets line by line, and cut at will.
8. Think very carefully about education, look at ACT's policy, go to Stockholm to see how it works, the UK Conservative Party has adopted a similar policy, you just need to sell it and take on the vested interests in the teachers' unions. It isn't enough, but it is a step forward to decentralising control and competition in education.
9. Send Tim Groser with yourself to Washington once the Obama Administration is sworn in. There is every risk it will turn its back on free trade, especially in agriculture. I don't need to explain how important it is to convince Obama how bad that would be for the US and the world.
10. Read George Reisman: Capitalism A Treatise of Economics, over Christmas and New Year, pass it onto Bill English as well. Demand all Cabinet Ministers read it within 3 months.
There is so much more John, but it's a start.
Good luck!
Well done, you've produced National's best result since 1990 and Labour's worst since 1996. I know you did it by essentially agreeing to much of what Labour has done, but still after 9 years it was an achievement to fight your first election as leader and win. Now you have the hard task of pleasing a few million people during a recession, with their expectations you'll fix the economy, their kids' education, their healthcare and improve law and order. You've promised to spend more of other people's money, but give some back too. Now I didn't vote National this time, as is bound to be obvious but I am glad you defeated Helen Clark - it is time for change, and your chance is now to make positive changes that both advance New Zealand, and promote a New Zealand less dependent on the state.
So I dare to give you 10 small pieces of advice:
1. Do not give Peter Dunne a Cabinet post or seek a confidence and supply agreement with him. 0.89% of the vote is not deserving of it. You don't need him as much as he wants you. He spent the last 6 years giving Labour confidence and supply, and his party is finished as a force. Make him Speaker - he has been in the House a long time, and this role would suit him. It also enables you to deal to the pointless Families Commission, and not build Transmission Gully without being held to ransom by one man.
2. Talk to Rodney Hide and Sir Roger Douglas about their roles. You need them and one of them should be in Cabinet. Hide would be easier for you, because Douglas would drive you all nuts - but Douglas should have a role. ACT will support you on law and order and tax cuts, but it needs something more - may I suggest dealing to the RMA, cleaning out bureaucracies and education vouchers as useful steps.
3. Don't enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with the Maori Party, but do enter into a dialogue and consultation arrangement. The Greens had this with Labour. It will pull the Maori Party into the tent, and teach them and you both very much. It isn't a chance to sell out, you have a mandate for change towards more frugal government, but it is a chance to undermine the Labour-Maori relationship of dependence.
4. Be careful who gets what Cabinet positions. May I make a few suggestions:
i. Nick Smith should not get environment/RMA, building/construction, conservation or climate change. The man is a Labour MP in very poor drag, his seat has more votes for Labour and the Greens combined than National. He will do nothing to the RMA to raise NZ's competitiveness or protect private property rights, he has never had a real job, a politician since his teens. Give him Corrections and Defence, if he needs something.
ii. Give education to someone who can fight the teachers' unions to the bitter end. Lockwood Smith is not that person. It should be a woman.
iii. Give transport to Maurice Williamson, he had a healthy hatred of the LTSA when he was Minister, and given how nationalised it became under Labour you need someone who can have it face the other way. Yes he went on about tolls, but he knows this area well.
5. Scrap the 39% top tax rate along with your tax cuts. ACT will support you, and any flack you think you'll get will fade away over the next three years. NZ$60,000 a year is not rich and it will be a huge sign that New Zealand wants its best and brightest back. Tackle the vile envy factor head on, you know how.
6. Delay the RMA fastracking for government projects and conduct a bottom up review of why you need that legislation. Let Rodney Hide do it. Start with first principles, start with private property rights and think carefully about transitional provisions, and while you're at it, read this.
7. Invite the Chief Executives of all government agencies to meet with the respective Minister, yourself and Rodney Hide. Ask the Chief Executive to explain in 5 minutes why the agency should remain, another 5 minutes to justify its current budget, another 5 minutes to outline what would happen if it closed up shop tomorrow. Those who don't satisfy you should be informed as such and either closed down or budgets slashed. Have a small group of Ministers and advisors go through budgets line by line, and cut at will.
8. Think very carefully about education, look at ACT's policy, go to Stockholm to see how it works, the UK Conservative Party has adopted a similar policy, you just need to sell it and take on the vested interests in the teachers' unions. It isn't enough, but it is a step forward to decentralising control and competition in education.
9. Send Tim Groser with yourself to Washington once the Obama Administration is sworn in. There is every risk it will turn its back on free trade, especially in agriculture. I don't need to explain how important it is to convince Obama how bad that would be for the US and the world.
10. Read George Reisman: Capitalism A Treatise of Economics, over Christmas and New Year, pass it onto Bill English as well. Demand all Cabinet Ministers read it within 3 months.
There is so much more John, but it's a start.
Good luck!
and later
I'll provide some more detailed analysis.
But congrats to the winners, and especially those Libz candidates who fought hard to spread the word of freedom. Your voices were heard.
But congrats to the winners, and especially those Libz candidates who fought hard to spread the word of freedom. Your voices were heard.
Now to celebrate and sign off
Farewell kiwis, enjoy the celebrations. You should all at least be celebrating the demise of Winston Peters. I'm off to enjoy Saturday :)
What will the ACT bottomline be?
Here's a shortlist to start with:
- Drop the 39% tax rate
- Education vouchers
- Turn RMA on its head
- End ETS
- Drop the 39% tax rate
- Education vouchers
- Turn RMA on its head
- End ETS
Final count on the night
National 45.5% 41 electorate seats 18 list seats - 59
Labour 33.8% 21 electorate seats 22 list seats - 43
Greens 6.4% 8 list seats
ACT 3.7% 1 electorate and 4 list seats - 5
Maori 2.2% 5 electorate seats
Progressive 0.9% 1 electorate seats
United Future 0.9% 1 electorate seat
Outside Parliament
NZ First 4.2%
Kiwi Party 0.56% (clearly the Christian part of United Future was disenchanted)
Bill and Ben Party 0.51% (yep, people who don't give a fuck)
ALCP 0.36% (ALCP picked up votes from the Greens, but will go to sleep - again)
Pacific Party 0.33% (Philip Field couldn't get much support beyond South Auckland)
Family Party 0.33% (Destiny brand gone, the Christian vote clearly split three ways)
Alliance 0.08% (held their own despite the leftwing competition)
Democrats 0.05% (held their own as well)
Libertarianz 0.05% (up 13%)
Workers Party 0.04% (Communist rump)
RAM and Republic of New Zealand Party - can't even get votes from all their members!
Labour 33.8% 21 electorate seats 22 list seats - 43
Greens 6.4% 8 list seats
ACT 3.7% 1 electorate and 4 list seats - 5
Maori 2.2% 5 electorate seats
Progressive 0.9% 1 electorate seats
United Future 0.9% 1 electorate seat
Outside Parliament
NZ First 4.2%
Kiwi Party 0.56% (clearly the Christian part of United Future was disenchanted)
Bill and Ben Party 0.51% (yep, people who don't give a fuck)
ALCP 0.36% (ALCP picked up votes from the Greens, but will go to sleep - again)
Pacific Party 0.33% (Philip Field couldn't get much support beyond South Auckland)
Family Party 0.33% (Destiny brand gone, the Christian vote clearly split three ways)
Alliance 0.08% (held their own despite the leftwing competition)
Democrats 0.05% (held their own as well)
Libertarianz 0.05% (up 13%)
Workers Party 0.04% (Communist rump)
RAM and Republic of New Zealand Party - can't even get votes from all their members!
08 November 2008
John Key the victor - PM elect
Obama? "They voted for change". New National led government. Thanks supporters. Voted for safer, more prosperous and more ambitious New Zealand. Inspired as a kid who rode bike from his state house past those of wealthier kids (pretty good stuff). NZ has so much more potential. Collective success rests on the success of individuals. His government values individual achievement. Thanks Clark, she gave him gracious comments on her concession. Spoke to Rodney Hide, Peter Dunne (didn't mention Maori Party), they are willing to lend support to a new government. Spoke to Tariana Turia, willingness to engage in dialogue with Maori Party next week.
So it DOES look like National/ACT/United Future, but he wont be wanting to upset the Maori Party.
Will National do what Labour did?
Labour has always been thought to go with the Greens, and in 2005, the Maori Party.
It went with United Future in 2002, and NZ First and United Future in 2005.
National DOES have a choice this time:
- ACT
- Maori Party
Peter Dunne is an add on, he's unnecessary.
National might go with the Maori Party to broaden its base, after all it is, inherently, a conservative party. ACTivists and Rodney Hide might pause till they hear and see what John Key does.
It went with United Future in 2002, and NZ First and United Future in 2005.
National DOES have a choice this time:
- ACT
- Maori Party
Peter Dunne is an add on, he's unnecessary.
National might go with the Maori Party to broaden its base, after all it is, inherently, a conservative party. ACTivists and Rodney Hide might pause till they hear and see what John Key does.
ACT's MPs
Rodney Hide (Epsom is his through and through)
Heather Roy
Sir Roger Douglas
John Boscawen - Freedom of Speech Trust founder
David Garrett - Mr Sensible Sentencing Trust
ACT should be able to demand two Ministers from that, but will National want it?
Heather Roy
Sir Roger Douglas
John Boscawen - Freedom of Speech Trust founder
David Garrett - Mr Sensible Sentencing Trust
ACT should be able to demand two Ministers from that, but will National want it?
Clark keeps the headline
As RNZ says, this is Clark grabbing the headlines tomorrow.
It wasn't a McCain concession, it was a campaigning concession.
One third new MPs and that caucus has to find a new leader. Goff, Cullen or silent T?
It wasn't a McCain concession, it was a campaigning concession.
One third new MPs and that caucus has to find a new leader. Goff, Cullen or silent T?
Clark concedes - stands down as Leader!
Congratulates John Key and National.
A night for winners to savour, but we wont be going away.
Accepts responsibility for the result.
We've achieved incredible things for New Zealanders (ugh)
Incredible amount of pride in economic growth, high employment (thanks of course to the reforms of the 80s and 90s), huge advances in public health and education (noticed those?), boosted the nation's identity and pride (yes nothing like nationalism).
Dozen new Labour MPs to join the team
Fear that all they've worked for goes up in a bonfire of flames of the rightwing (ah if only!)
Thanks Dr Cullen, family etc
Standing down as Labour leader
Clark's majority in Mt Albert slashed by 6,000 but still a respectable 8695. Party vote in Mt Albert is far closer, only 1800 ahead of National.
A night for winners to savour, but we wont be going away.
Accepts responsibility for the result.
We've achieved incredible things for New Zealanders (ugh)
Incredible amount of pride in economic growth, high employment (thanks of course to the reforms of the 80s and 90s), huge advances in public health and education (noticed those?), boosted the nation's identity and pride (yes nothing like nationalism).
Dozen new Labour MPs to join the team
Fear that all they've worked for goes up in a bonfire of flames of the rightwing (ah if only!)
Thanks Dr Cullen, family etc
Standing down as Labour leader
Clark's majority in Mt Albert slashed by 6,000 but still a respectable 8695. Party vote in Mt Albert is far closer, only 1800 ahead of National.
Electorates that have changed
Auckland Central - Kaye beats Tizard
Botany - Pansy Wong takes this new seat
Hamilton West - National's Macindoe beats Gallagher
Mangere - Labour's Sio beats Field
Maungakiekie - Lotu iiga of National beats Beaumont of Labour
New Plymouth - Young of National narrowly beats Duynhoven of Labour
Otaki - Guy of National beats Hughes of Labour
Rotorua - McClay of National beats Chadwick of Labour
Taupo - Upston of National beats Burton of Labour
Waitakere - Bennett of National beats Pillay of Labour
West Coast Tasman - Auchinvole of National beats O'Connor of Labour
Te Tai Tonga -Katene of Maori Party beats Okeroa of Labour
Botany - Pansy Wong takes this new seat
Hamilton West - National's Macindoe beats Gallagher
Mangere - Labour's Sio beats Field
Maungakiekie - Lotu iiga of National beats Beaumont of Labour
New Plymouth - Young of National narrowly beats Duynhoven of Labour
Otaki - Guy of National beats Hughes of Labour
Rotorua - McClay of National beats Chadwick of Labour
Taupo - Upston of National beats Burton of Labour
Waitakere - Bennett of National beats Pillay of Labour
West Coast Tasman - Auchinvole of National beats O'Connor of Labour
Te Tai Tonga -Katene of Maori Party beats Okeroa of Labour
1015GMT: Where the hell is Clark?
Helen, it doesn't add up. Ring John Key, be the statesperson (?) you believe you are - you should have conceded half an hour ago.
Jenny Shipley was a gracious loser.
Mike Moore wasn't in 1993 and it assisted his downfall led by you. If you can't do this well, your caucus members should roll you.
Jenny Shipley was a gracious loser.
Mike Moore wasn't in 1993 and it assisted his downfall led by you. If you can't do this well, your caucus members should roll you.
Judith Tizard on RNZ
Gracefully conceding and saying she's the second Labour MP to lose Auckland Central isn't that right Richard? Good on you Judith, "elections come, elections go, you have to accept the will of the people". Wished Nikki all the best, no idea if she is in on the list, but Prebble thinks she might make it. "A changing of the guard and maybe there needs to be a change of the guard" - what could that mean Judith?
So good on you Judith, a gracious member of the Labour party.
So good on you Judith, a gracious member of the Labour party.
NZ election results live: 1000 GMT
National 45.5%
Labour 33.8% a devastating hit for Labour
Greens 6.5% disappointing
NZF 4.2% more than people thought, but finally the end
ACT 3.7% good enough to demand a coalition and demand some decent steps forward
Maori 2.3% if specials overseas increase this the overhang may shrink one more
Libz on 1010
New Plymouth is now a National seat. Harry Duynhoven is gone, a massive majority overturned. Harry hasn't got a list position, so will be looking for a new job, after specials (314 majority).
Rimutaka remains Labour, Hipkins just beats Whiteside
Waimakariri close between Cosgrove and Wilkinson
Labour 33.8% a devastating hit for Labour
Greens 6.5% disappointing
NZF 4.2% more than people thought, but finally the end
ACT 3.7% good enough to demand a coalition and demand some decent steps forward
Maori 2.3% if specials overseas increase this the overhang may shrink one more
Libz on 1010
New Plymouth is now a National seat. Harry Duynhoven is gone, a massive majority overturned. Harry hasn't got a list position, so will be looking for a new job, after specials (314 majority).
Rimutaka remains Labour, Hipkins just beats Whiteside
Waimakariri close between Cosgrove and Wilkinson
3 years of Key and Hide
So it is a National/ACT government possibly with Peter Dunne.
John Key is sitting waiting for a phone call from Helen Clark. Richard Prebble on RNZ has said "Helen this is what you do, you pick up the phone, and say "congratulations".
Helen you lost in 1996, you've been there before - come on. It's over, a better man won.
John Key is sitting waiting for a phone call from Helen Clark. Richard Prebble on RNZ has said "Helen this is what you do, you pick up the phone, and say "congratulations".
Helen you lost in 1996, you've been there before - come on. It's over, a better man won.
Greens happy but not ecstatic
8 seats, but since overseas NZers have some fanciful idea about clean and Green NZ and vote heavily Green it could yet be 9.
That means:
Jeanette Fitzsimons
Russel Norman
Sue Bradford
Metiria Turei
Sue Kedgley
Keith Locke
Kevin Hague
Catherine Delahunty (ugh)
maybe Kennedy Graham
Jeanette speech: Thanks those loyal to our children and the planet. Oil prices are going to skyrocket again. How vile, take your filthy furry hands off other people's children. They aren't yours, and you're not in government. You've been saddling up with Labour over the last nine years.
That means:
Jeanette Fitzsimons
Russel Norman
Sue Bradford
Metiria Turei
Sue Kedgley
Keith Locke
Kevin Hague
Catherine Delahunty (ugh)
maybe Kennedy Graham
Jeanette speech: Thanks those loyal to our children and the planet. Oil prices are going to skyrocket again. How vile, take your filthy furry hands off other people's children. They aren't yours, and you're not in government. You've been saddling up with Labour over the last nine years.
Right vs left in Parliament
National plus ACT plus United Future 65
Labour plus Progressives plus Greens plus Maori 57
62 needed for majority
Labour plus Progressives plus Greens plus Maori 57
62 needed for majority
Judith Tizard on the cusp of remaining in Parliament
Labour needs 22 list seats, the 22nd one given current electorate wins would be Judith Tizard.
She aint finished yet. Go Harry in New Plymouth!
She aint finished yet. Go Harry in New Plymouth!
NZ election results live: 0930GMT
So when is Helen Clark conceding? Winston has. Chris Carter on RNZ says the government hasn't been rejected and blames the toxic media! Says "if there is a Labour opposition". He isn't conceding - little prick! Labour is so pissed off, and frankly good.
Control freaks who can't accept that 2 out of 3 voters didn't tick Labour
PARTIES:
National 45.5% It's enough, but really not the vote they would have hoped for.
Labour 33.7% Labour's second worst result.
Greens 6.5% they wont be happy
NZF 4.2% phew and all those votes get redistributed
ACT 3.7% 5 seats got to be at least 1 if not 2 Cabinet members?
Libz 983
ELECTORATES THAT MATTER:
Nikki Kaye must take Auckland Central now. Bye bye Judith you lazy moaner, no longer will others in government have to put up with your mindless moody bullshit.
Rodney Hide has a huge majority in Epsom, fair to say it's his home seat. No longer a strategic vote location alone.
Maungakiekie - Labour remains behind here, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga may take it for National
New Plymouth - remains a cliffhanger
Ohariu - Dunne is safe here, Minister of ?
Rimutaka - remains a cliffhanger
Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove is NOT safe here, still very close
Waitakere - Another cliffhanger
Wellington Central - Looks like Grant Robertson is going to pip Stephen Franks
West Coast Tasman - Await specials, but National looks like kicking out O'Connor
Te Tai Tonga - Maori Party looking more comfy here, 2 seat overhang
John Key is about to make a speech apparently
Control freaks who can't accept that 2 out of 3 voters didn't tick Labour
PARTIES:
National 45.5% It's enough, but really not the vote they would have hoped for.
Labour 33.7% Labour's second worst result.
Greens 6.5% they wont be happy
NZF 4.2% phew and all those votes get redistributed
ACT 3.7% 5 seats got to be at least 1 if not 2 Cabinet members?
Libz 983
ELECTORATES THAT MATTER:
Nikki Kaye must take Auckland Central now. Bye bye Judith you lazy moaner, no longer will others in government have to put up with your mindless moody bullshit.
Rodney Hide has a huge majority in Epsom, fair to say it's his home seat. No longer a strategic vote location alone.
Maungakiekie - Labour remains behind here, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga may take it for National
New Plymouth - remains a cliffhanger
Ohariu - Dunne is safe here, Minister of ?
Rimutaka - remains a cliffhanger
Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove is NOT safe here, still very close
Waitakere - Another cliffhanger
Wellington Central - Looks like Grant Robertson is going to pip Stephen Franks
West Coast Tasman - Await specials, but National looks like kicking out O'Connor
Te Tai Tonga - Maori Party looking more comfy here, 2 seat overhang
John Key is about to make a speech apparently
NZ election results live: 0916 GMT
Lost RNZ connection and TVNZ wont take my connection either grrr. 90%
Nats: 45.6%
Labour: 33.6%
Greens: 6.5% picked up a little
ACT: 3.7%
NZF: 4.3%
Looks like a National/ACT government people.
Libz 927
Winston says your cause is not over NZ First voters LOL what him?
ELECTORATES:
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye is looking comfortably ahead now
Maungakiekie - Looking more like National
New Plymouth - 97% and still less than 200 in it, will go to specials
Ohariu - Dunne looks comfortably ahead here now
Otaki - Nathan Guy has taken this from Darren Hughes
Palmerston North - Labour has hung on
Rimutaka - still neck and neck Labour/National
Waitakere - Paula Bennett threatening Labour here
Nats: 45.6%
Labour: 33.6%
Greens: 6.5% picked up a little
ACT: 3.7%
NZF: 4.3%
Looks like a National/ACT government people.
Libz 927
Winston says your cause is not over NZ First voters LOL what him?
ELECTORATES:
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye is looking comfortably ahead now
Maungakiekie - Looking more like National
New Plymouth - 97% and still less than 200 in it, will go to specials
Ohariu - Dunne looks comfortably ahead here now
Otaki - Nathan Guy has taken this from Darren Hughes
Palmerston North - Labour has hung on
Rimutaka - still neck and neck Labour/National
Waitakere - Paula Bennett threatening Labour here
Some finals
Clutha Southland - English - National - majority 14323
Invercargill - Roy - National - majority 6152 - (Libz Shane Pleasance 21 for party, 113 electorate. Well done Shane)
Kaikoura - King - National majority 10136
Rangitata - Goodhew - National majority 7648
Tukituki - Foss- National majority 7288
Wairarapa - Hayes - National majority 6309 (Libz Richard McGrath 59 party, 419 electorate!)
Invercargill - Roy - National - majority 6152 - (Libz Shane Pleasance 21 for party, 113 electorate. Well done Shane)
Kaikoura - King - National majority 10136
Rangitata - Goodhew - National majority 7648
Tukituki - Foss- National majority 7288
Wairarapa - Hayes - National majority 6309 (Libz Richard McGrath 59 party, 419 electorate!)
NZ election results live: 0900 GMT
PARTY:
Grrr RNZ feed breaking up and now the election results website is fidgety it's getting trickier here but:
National 45.8% (down down it goes!)
Labour33.4%
Greens 6.4%
ACT 3.7%
NZF 4.3%
Maori 2.2% still not enough to avoid overhang
Libz 826 but Bill and Ben 8936 votes - go figure
ELECTORATES:
Auckland Central remains close, but Kaye pushing ahead a bit by 859
Christchurch Central Labour only barely ahead in what should be a safe seat
Epsom Hide comfortably but not half counted yet
Hutt South Mallard seeming more comfortable
Maungakiekie National slightly ahead of Mark Gosche's former seat
New Plymouth neck and neck!
Grrr RNZ feed breaking up and now the election results website is fidgety it's getting trickier here but:
National 45.8% (down down it goes!)
Labour33.4%
Greens 6.4%
ACT 3.7%
NZF 4.3%
Maori 2.2% still not enough to avoid overhang
Libz 826 but Bill and Ben 8936 votes - go figure
ELECTORATES:
Auckland Central remains close, but Kaye pushing ahead a bit by 859
Christchurch Central Labour only barely ahead in what should be a safe seat
Epsom Hide comfortably but not half counted yet
Hutt South Mallard seeming more comfortable
Maungakiekie National slightly ahead of Mark Gosche's former seat
New Plymouth neck and neck!
NZ election results live: 0845 GMT
Deja vu 2005 for National? Not quite that bad, but with over two-thirds counted:
National 46% eroding, making the Maori Party more important
Labour 33.2% holding up a bit, I expect Labour to hit 35%
Greens 6.4% they MUST be disappointed, I'm not
Act 3.7% looking good to take 5 seats, which National will be glad for
NZF 4.3% bye Winston - a great reason to party!
Maori 2.2% party vote disappointing for them, but it creates the overhang
Progressives slightly ahead of United Future but both around 0.9%!
Kiwi Party respectably getting 0.58% ahead of Bill and Ben at last
National needs ACT, but will it need Dunne and the Maori Party too?
Libz 791
7931 for Bill and Ben, that many people vote for a joke. However, they might have voted Labour or NZ First otherwise!
ELECTORATES:
Tauranga declared for National!! :)
Hamilton West, Rotorua, Taupo all clear wins for National
Botany is clearly Pansy Wong, Kenneth Wang is third.
Anderton looking safe in Wigram
Ohariu still a three way race, but Dunne ahead
Te Tai Tonga looking very close now, Labour picking up but still behind. This remains critical!
Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Maungakiekie, New Plymouth, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Waitakere, Wellington Central, West Coast Tasman all the current marginals
National 46% eroding, making the Maori Party more important
Labour 33.2% holding up a bit, I expect Labour to hit 35%
Greens 6.4% they MUST be disappointed, I'm not
Act 3.7% looking good to take 5 seats, which National will be glad for
NZF 4.3% bye Winston - a great reason to party!
Maori 2.2% party vote disappointing for them, but it creates the overhang
Progressives slightly ahead of United Future but both around 0.9%!
Kiwi Party respectably getting 0.58% ahead of Bill and Ben at last
National needs ACT, but will it need Dunne and the Maori Party too?
Libz 791
7931 for Bill and Ben, that many people vote for a joke. However, they might have voted Labour or NZ First otherwise!
ELECTORATES:
Tauranga declared for National!! :)
Hamilton West, Rotorua, Taupo all clear wins for National
Botany is clearly Pansy Wong, Kenneth Wang is third.
Anderton looking safe in Wigram
Ohariu still a three way race, but Dunne ahead
Te Tai Tonga looking very close now, Labour picking up but still behind. This remains critical!
Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Maungakiekie, New Plymouth, Otaki, Palmerston North, Rimutaka, Waitakere, Wellington Central, West Coast Tasman all the current marginals
NZ election results live: 0830 GMT
National - 46.6% they'll need friends
Labour - 32.8% up but hardly enough
Greens - 6.4% not what they hoped for
ACT - 3.7% holding steady
NZF - 4.3% hard for Winston to pick up
Libz 574
Auckland Central very much neck and neck along with Wellington Central, Te Tai Tonga neck and neck, West Coast Tasman looking like Nats. Dunne starting to pull ahead in Ohariu
Seats worth declaring but unsurprising:
Clutha Southland - English - National
Coromandel - Goudie - National
Dunedin North - Hodgson - Labour
Dunedin South - Curran - Labour
East Coast - Tolley - National (was Labour until 2005)
Invercargill - Roy - National
Kaikoura - King - National
Mana - Laban - Labour
Napier - Tremain - National
Nelson - Smith - National (what's WRONG with people there? How evil can you be?)
Northland - Carter - National
Rangitata - Goodhew - National
Rangitikei - Power - National
Selwyn - Adams - National
Taranaki-King Country - Ardern - National
Tukituki - Foss - National
Wairarapa - Hayes - National
Waitaki - Dean - National (sigh)
Whanganui - Borrows - National
Whangarei - Heatley - National
Labour - 32.8% up but hardly enough
Greens - 6.4% not what they hoped for
ACT - 3.7% holding steady
NZF - 4.3% hard for Winston to pick up
Libz 574
Auckland Central very much neck and neck along with Wellington Central, Te Tai Tonga neck and neck, West Coast Tasman looking like Nats. Dunne starting to pull ahead in Ohariu
Seats worth declaring but unsurprising:
Clutha Southland - English - National
Coromandel - Goudie - National
Dunedin North - Hodgson - Labour
Dunedin South - Curran - Labour
East Coast - Tolley - National (was Labour until 2005)
Invercargill - Roy - National
Kaikoura - King - National
Mana - Laban - Labour
Napier - Tremain - National
Nelson - Smith - National (what's WRONG with people there? How evil can you be?)
Northland - Carter - National
Rangitata - Goodhew - National
Rangitikei - Power - National
Selwyn - Adams - National
Taranaki-King Country - Ardern - National
Tukituki - Foss - National
Wairarapa - Hayes - National
Waitaki - Dean - National (sigh)
Whanganui - Borrows - National
Whangarei - Heatley - National
NZ election results live: 0815 GMT
Oh dear, National tracking down to 47%
Labour starting to pick up at 32.4%
Greens 6.4% holding steady
ACT 3.7% tracking up a little
Kiwi Party 0.59% must be pleased chasing United Future and the Progressives
Libz 463
National/ACT could govern, but like I said National is easing well back
Tizard very closely behind Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central
Christchurch Central neck and neck, but should got Labour
Hamilton West comfortably Nat
Hutt South looking tighter for Mallard now
Mangere Field looks finished against Labour
Maungakiekie looking Labour now but still close
New Plymouth nearly half counted and Duynhoven is trailing more than 1000 behind
Ohariu still a neck and neck Dunne Chauvel Shanks
Otaki Hughes just hanging on despite his tiny majority
Palmerston North settling back to Labour
Rimutaka also easing back to Labour
Rotorua a win to National from Labour
Tauranga Winston is finished, it's over!
Waimakariri is neck and neck
Wellington Central neck and neck
Labour starting to pick up at 32.4%
Greens 6.4% holding steady
ACT 3.7% tracking up a little
Kiwi Party 0.59% must be pleased chasing United Future and the Progressives
Libz 463
National/ACT could govern, but like I said National is easing well back
Tizard very closely behind Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central
Christchurch Central neck and neck, but should got Labour
Hamilton West comfortably Nat
Hutt South looking tighter for Mallard now
Mangere Field looks finished against Labour
Maungakiekie looking Labour now but still close
New Plymouth nearly half counted and Duynhoven is trailing more than 1000 behind
Ohariu still a neck and neck Dunne Chauvel Shanks
Otaki Hughes just hanging on despite his tiny majority
Palmerston North settling back to Labour
Rimutaka also easing back to Labour
Rotorua a win to National from Labour
Tauranga Winston is finished, it's over!
Waimakariri is neck and neck
Wellington Central neck and neck
Libz - best performing electorate candidates at 0809 GMT
Wairarapa - Richard McGrath - 152
Invercargill - Shane Pleasance - 82
well done Sheriff!
Invercargill - Shane Pleasance - 82
well done Sheriff!
Best Libz electorates: party vote
For my Libz friends, the best seats in terms of party vote are:
Wairarapa - 15
Te Tai Tonga - 14 - which of course must be nonsense, as in 2005 Libz did incredibly well in this Maori seat early on, which simply means someone can't count for that seat!
Wairarapa - 15
Te Tai Tonga - 14 - which of course must be nonsense, as in 2005 Libz did incredibly well in this Maori seat early on, which simply means someone can't count for that seat!
NZ election results live: 0800 GMT
Well it would be fair to say John Key will be the next Prime Minister. You can't have this proportion of votes counted and the gap remaining more than 10%
National 48% noticing how it is drifting downwards? Yes, watch that, watch Dunne looking insecure and the Maori Party may be looking more and more important
Labour 31.8% a long long way behind and without Winston, little chance of winning now.
NZF 4.3% comfortably fading away
Greens 6.3% picking up
ACT 3.6% will be reasonably happy
Libz 269!
Ohariu - Dunne must be worrying, this is a three way race with Chauvel and Shanks.
Hamilton West looking solidly National
Maungakiekie neck and neck Labour/National
Waitakere neck and neck Labour/National
New Plymouth isn't that wild about Harry, Nats looking good here
Pansy Wong well ahead in Botany
Waimakariri back to Labour
Wellington Central back to Labour
Palmerston North back to Labour
Maori seats look like status quo, but Te Tai Tonga is neck and neck Maori/Labour. This seat is critical, as it would create another seat in Parliament. 122 rather than 121 seats makes it harder for Key to create an easy majority.
National 48% noticing how it is drifting downwards? Yes, watch that, watch Dunne looking insecure and the Maori Party may be looking more and more important
Labour 31.8% a long long way behind and without Winston, little chance of winning now.
NZF 4.3% comfortably fading away
Greens 6.3% picking up
ACT 3.6% will be reasonably happy
Libz 269!
Ohariu - Dunne must be worrying, this is a three way race with Chauvel and Shanks.
Hamilton West looking solidly National
Maungakiekie neck and neck Labour/National
Waitakere neck and neck Labour/National
New Plymouth isn't that wild about Harry, Nats looking good here
Pansy Wong well ahead in Botany
Waimakariri back to Labour
Wellington Central back to Labour
Palmerston North back to Labour
Maori seats look like status quo, but Te Tai Tonga is neck and neck Maori/Labour. This seat is critical, as it would create another seat in Parliament. 122 rather than 121 seats makes it harder for Key to create an easy majority.
NZ election results live: 0745 GMT
The question at this stage has to be, who will the Nats govern with
Nats 48.7% tracking down ever so slowly
NZF 4.4% tracking down! Yes yes!
ACT holding 3.8%
United Future dropping to 0.8%
Bill and Ben at 1534 votes!
Libz 195, starting to leave the communists behind and catching up with the Social Credit nutters
ALCP doing well too
Electorates
Dunne challenged well as Chauvel and Shanks are running neck and neck for second, but not far behind Dunne, but he should be safe
Rimutaka and Wellington Central cliffhangers
Labour has been badly hit in many electorates, this election looks like a cleanout of the left
Nats 48.7% tracking down ever so slowly
NZF 4.4% tracking down! Yes yes!
ACT holding 3.8%
United Future dropping to 0.8%
Bill and Ben at 1534 votes!
Libz 195, starting to leave the communists behind and catching up with the Social Credit nutters
ALCP doing well too
Electorates
Dunne challenged well as Chauvel and Shanks are running neck and neck for second, but not far behind Dunne, but he should be safe
Rimutaka and Wellington Central cliffhangers
Labour has been badly hit in many electorates, this election looks like a cleanout of the left
NZ election results live: 0730 GMT
Nats 49%
Lab 31.2%
Greens 6.1% (have to be hoping better than this)
NZF 4.5% (easing back thank god)
ACT 3.4% remaining steady
Maori 2.1%
Bill and Ben 824 votes, 9th biggest party! MacGillicuddies reborn (in the joke vote category)
The left vote is definitely well down, but remember 2005, Labour pulled through at the end.
Worth noting the lunatic left Auckland based RAM is doing appallingly badly.
West Coast Tasman remains with National narrowly ahead
Maungakiekie a core Labour seat looking very close.
Rimutaka narrowly Labour
Maori seats have Te Tai Tonga going from Labour to Maori Party, but hardly a clean sweep
National still leading in most the seats I listed before:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
Libz 137 finally ahead of the communist Workers' Party!
Lab 31.2%
Greens 6.1% (have to be hoping better than this)
NZF 4.5% (easing back thank god)
ACT 3.4% remaining steady
Maori 2.1%
Bill and Ben 824 votes, 9th biggest party! MacGillicuddies reborn (in the joke vote category)
The left vote is definitely well down, but remember 2005, Labour pulled through at the end.
Worth noting the lunatic left Auckland based RAM is doing appallingly badly.
West Coast Tasman remains with National narrowly ahead
Maungakiekie a core Labour seat looking very close.
Rimutaka narrowly Labour
Maori seats have Te Tai Tonga going from Labour to Maori Party, but hardly a clean sweep
National still leading in most the seats I listed before:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
Libz 137 finally ahead of the communist Workers' Party!
NZ election results live: 0715 GMT
Far too early to tell, but the Nats and ACT may be able to form a government, but the key looks like the Maori seats. Maori Party might pick up Te Tai Tonga, and its party vote isn't doing that well.
48.7% National (still low in my view to govern very happily)
31.4% Labour (low but will pick up)
6.2% Greens (so you want your kids protected from light)
4.6% NZ First (got to hope Auckland voters will knock this down)
3.3% ACT (good effort, but likely to dribble down)
Prebble on Radio NZ saying too early to tell in Auckland Central. 14% swing needed for Kaye to take it. RNZ saying she got a lot of publicity, partly because she is young and pretty!
Wellington Central has Stephen Franks ahead but far too early to tell.
Prebble says foreign sounding names don't do well in NZ! I think he IS right, but with MMP this effect is reduced.
Other electorates to note - Rimutaka is neck and neck Labour/National as is Wellington Central - either would be the first Wellington electorate going National if you exclude Wairarapa.
Libz 109, damned communists ahead!
48.7% National (still low in my view to govern very happily)
31.4% Labour (low but will pick up)
6.2% Greens (so you want your kids protected from light)
4.6% NZ First (got to hope Auckland voters will knock this down)
3.3% ACT (good effort, but likely to dribble down)
Prebble on Radio NZ saying too early to tell in Auckland Central. 14% swing needed for Kaye to take it. RNZ saying she got a lot of publicity, partly because she is young and pretty!
Wellington Central has Stephen Franks ahead but far too early to tell.
Prebble says foreign sounding names don't do well in NZ! I think he IS right, but with MMP this effect is reduced.
Other electorates to note - Rimutaka is neck and neck Labour/National as is Wellington Central - either would be the first Wellington electorate going National if you exclude Wairarapa.
Libz 109, damned communists ahead!
NZ election results live: 0700 GMT
NZ First fourth! Don't write NZ First off yet, Winston wont win his seat, but 4.6% is perilously close to the threshold.
Kiwi Party is getting close to the Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne parties, both of which are one man shows with 5% counted.
Libz hit 100 votes :) which should mean a substantial increase in vote compared to 2005 if translated evenly.
ACT's 3.28% looks like Sir Roger Douglas will be worrying the Nats
Nats 48.6% vs Lab 31.5%
Electorates have Nats ahead in many Labour seats:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
Kiwi Party is getting close to the Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne parties, both of which are one man shows with 5% counted.
Libz hit 100 votes :) which should mean a substantial increase in vote compared to 2005 if translated evenly.
ACT's 3.28% looks like Sir Roger Douglas will be worrying the Nats
Nats 48.6% vs Lab 31.5%
Electorates have Nats ahead in many Labour seats:
Auckland Central
Hamilton West
New Plymouth
Otaki
Palmerston North
Rotorua
Taupo
Waimakariri
Waitakere
NZ election results live: 0645 GMT
Well I'm watching my guide and Not PC's guide as reference points, listening to Radio NZ (yes I know) because both TV channels are clearly unable to stream properly.
Parties
National 48.9% a bit low for this stage
Labour 31.3% very low for this stage
Green 6.2% looks very good for them (eek)
NZ First 4.6% higher than most pundits thought, but not enough
Bill and Ben Party shows you can convince 500 odd people to vote for a joke!
Electorates
National's safe seats all look safe again.
Auckland Central has Nikki Kaye narrowly ahead of Tizard
Botany has Labour coming second behind Pansy Wong, ACT's Wang campaign isn't looking like a winner.
Epsom has Rodney Hide comfortably ahead of Richard Worth
Mangere Labour's Sio is well ahead of Philip Field
New Plymouth, Duynhoven behind National's Young
Ohariu, Dunne narrowly ahead of National's Shanks
Otaki, Hughes still narrowly ahead of National's Guy
Tauranga, Winston is well behind
Maori seats, looking not much different from before
Conclusion
Nats, ACT, Greens should all be relaxed. Labour must be worried, and the Dunne/Anderton parties will be just that. Libz fighting with the Workers' Party :)
Parties
National 48.9% a bit low for this stage
Labour 31.3% very low for this stage
Green 6.2% looks very good for them (eek)
NZ First 4.6% higher than most pundits thought, but not enough
Bill and Ben Party shows you can convince 500 odd people to vote for a joke!
Electorates
National's safe seats all look safe again.
Auckland Central has Nikki Kaye narrowly ahead of Tizard
Botany has Labour coming second behind Pansy Wong, ACT's Wang campaign isn't looking like a winner.
Epsom has Rodney Hide comfortably ahead of Richard Worth
Mangere Labour's Sio is well ahead of Philip Field
New Plymouth, Duynhoven behind National's Young
Ohariu, Dunne narrowly ahead of National's Shanks
Otaki, Hughes still narrowly ahead of National's Guy
Tauranga, Winston is well behind
Maori seats, looking not much different from before
Conclusion
Nats, ACT, Greens should all be relaxed. Labour must be worried, and the Dunne/Anderton parties will be just that. Libz fighting with the Workers' Party :)
NZ election results live: 0630 GMT
Party vote (I'm going to round to the nearest tenth of a percent)
18% between National and Labour 49.1% Nat/31.5% Lab
Greens 6.1%
Kiwi Party 0.6%
Electorates
Far too early to tell. Maori Party doing well in its seats.
Bridges well ahead of Winston in Tauranga
Formerly safe Labour seat of Napier, already well ahead for National's Chris Tremain
Conclusion
Nats will be quietly relaxed, Labour must already be worried
Greens looking good
NZ First doing better than expected
ACT doing better than expected
18% between National and Labour 49.1% Nat/31.5% Lab
Greens 6.1%
Kiwi Party 0.6%
Electorates
Far too early to tell. Maori Party doing well in its seats.
Bridges well ahead of Winston in Tauranga
Formerly safe Labour seat of Napier, already well ahead for National's Chris Tremain
Conclusion
Nats will be quietly relaxed, Labour must already be worried
Greens looking good
NZ First doing better than expected
ACT doing better than expected
New Zealand election 2008: Blogging live
Gah it's 6.15am here in the UK so now I can test:
- Streaming the TV networks
- Streaming the election results website
TVNZ is completely failing, but the election results website is not, so I will have an update at 0630GMT. Results with 2.7% of votes cast already though, and the Nats are well ahead.
- Streaming the TV networks
- Streaming the election results website
TVNZ is completely failing, but the election results website is not, so I will have an update at 0630GMT. Results with 2.7% of votes cast already though, and the Nats are well ahead.
Blogging the NZ election
Yes I'm going to do it, madly on the laptop, as quickly as results get interesting. That means the party vote patterns, and the electorates that are more likely to shift hands. You know the ones that matter, like Tauranga, Ohariu, the Maori seats.
It's going to be the political scientist in me, with a libertarian tinge :)
Have fun voting kiwis, it should be ticks that you are glad to give to a person and a party.
So off to bed!
It's going to be the political scientist in me, with a libertarian tinge :)
Have fun voting kiwis, it should be ticks that you are glad to give to a person and a party.
So off to bed!
My prediction for what it's worth
| Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | No. of electorate seats won | No. of list MPs | Total MPs | | % of MPs |
| Act New Zealand | 3.20% | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | | 3.33% |
| The Greens | 7.30% | 9 | 0 | 9 | 9 | | 7.50% |
| Jim Anderton's Progressive | 0.70% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | 0.83% |
| Māori Party | 2.90% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | | 3.33% |
| New Zealand Labour Party | 35.30% | 45 | 25 | 20 | 45 | | 37.50% |
| New Zealand National Party | 44.70% | 56 | 38 | 18 | 56 | | 46.67% |
| United Future New Zealand | 0.90% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | 0.83% |
| Totals | 95.00% | 120 | 70 | 50 | 120 | | 100.00% |
Simple points:
National's support overrated, Labour's underrated. Previous elections have demonstrated this time and time again. ACT also underrated. Greens a little overrated, a bad economy does not make people that Green oriented. Maori Party has peaked somewhat, more likely to get more party votes which isn't going to help it. Dunne and Anderton both shrinking single man acts. NZ First gone and Libz? Substantially better than last time.
Pity Italians?
Well no, they voted for this vile man. As much as I didn't support Obama, this sort of old fashioned racism is just disturbing.
Look at the people who enter Italian politics and don't wonder anymore why that country is shadowing France on the EU table of stagnation.
Look at the people who enter Italian politics and don't wonder anymore why that country is shadowing France on the EU table of stagnation.
07 November 2008
Think of what politics is
Why do people get into politics? It is a truly filthy sport. It is about trying to convince the greatest number of heads that what you and your party want to do to them is the right thing.
Most who enter politics claim to do so out of "service". You heard that a lot in the US campaign, both Obama and McCain talked about serving their country. I don't mean the military, I mean politics.
However what IS politics? It is the pursuit of power - power to make laws, power to take money from people and spend it on what you think is best for them. Take it from me, the people who do this are no better than most of you - they are mostly average - most are not particularly clever or bright - yet so many of you trust them.
The power they wield is enormous. Passing laws means that if people go against them, they could be fined or imprisoned. That is not something you can do to people, it is called using force.
Politicians seek the power to use force, to use violence.
If your business or charity or other voluntary organisation wants money, it has to earn it, persuade people to buy your services or persuade them to donate money.
Politicians don't do that, they can make you pay for what they want - not only do they do that, but they have made it so you're guilty till proven innocent if you get it wrong. Taxes are the tool of the politician. Statists say it is the price of a civilised society, as if it is civilised to make people pay for that which you cannot convince them of.
Across the spectrum they have plans for you and your money, the things they don't want you to do, the things they want you to pay for - for your own good.
The Greens for example have a long list of things they want to ban, subsidise and compel. They are control freaks par excellence. Labour isn't far behind, it believes it knows best to buy you health care, control your children's education and to save for your retirement. It buys you a railway that you didn't want to buy. The Maori Party also believes it knows best.
National will do less, but it wont reverse anything. Most disturbingly it wants the state to maintain a database of DNA of everyone arrested of certain offences, whether guilty or not. The state shouldn't be spying on you if you've not broken the law. National also thinks it can pick winners in spending your money on infrastructure whether or not you will use it. It offers nothing more than a better version of Labour - beyond the Electoral Finance Act, National will repeal nothing of substance that Labour has done.
I would like politics to be peripheral. Government is essential. The state provides for law and order, to protect us from those who will do violence to us, who will defraud us. That is a given and the priority. However, beyond that government is incompetent. I know it will take a long time for people to take responsibility, for their healthcare, for their kids education, to consider charity instead of welfare, and to stop thinking the government can fix problems they can't solve.
Politicians who promise they can change and fix things by spending your money and making people do what they want are shysters. Your only chance to say no to this advance auction of stolen goods is to vote for less of it.
Helen Clark and the Greens participate in it, gloriously and argue strongly that it is the only way things should be.
National participates in it, somewhat reluctantly, unable and unwilling to say no. Unable to say - sorry the government can't fix this, but it can get out of the way of those who might have a chance.
The government you get after the election tomorrow will be different, it could be John Key leading a semi-fresh team, of which he is probably the best person in it. I honestly wish him well, and I hope that all of the vote gathering is style not substance, and Key will change New Zealand for the better by getting the government out of the way and changing the culture of dependency on the state. Sadly I see little to prove to me that he will, even if a handful of ACT MPs push him a little further.
If Helen Clark and the Greens and Maori Party get elected then you'll see change, and it wont be pretty. However you can watch the next three years like I have watched the last 9, and see National unwilling to reverse almost everything Labour did.
Politics you see, is a nasty game. A game of surrendering principle, of kissing babies and promising to people that you'll give them things, without being honest about what you're taking from them. It is about kidding the vast masses of people that you can make their lives better, when the truth is people can really only do this themselves.
The election is about counting heads, not what was in them, but I hope you too will enjoy at least the sight of many politicians losing power, the sight of Helen Clark probably no longer being able to claim to be a victim of her own success as a popular and competent Prime Minister.
However as you do so, remember these people only have the power you have granted them. That is power you granted through your vote. I voted Libertarianz as the only power I want the state to have is to protect me. What power have you said you want the state to have over your life?
Most who enter politics claim to do so out of "service". You heard that a lot in the US campaign, both Obama and McCain talked about serving their country. I don't mean the military, I mean politics.
However what IS politics? It is the pursuit of power - power to make laws, power to take money from people and spend it on what you think is best for them. Take it from me, the people who do this are no better than most of you - they are mostly average - most are not particularly clever or bright - yet so many of you trust them.
The power they wield is enormous. Passing laws means that if people go against them, they could be fined or imprisoned. That is not something you can do to people, it is called using force.
Politicians seek the power to use force, to use violence.
If your business or charity or other voluntary organisation wants money, it has to earn it, persuade people to buy your services or persuade them to donate money.
Politicians don't do that, they can make you pay for what they want - not only do they do that, but they have made it so you're guilty till proven innocent if you get it wrong. Taxes are the tool of the politician. Statists say it is the price of a civilised society, as if it is civilised to make people pay for that which you cannot convince them of.
Across the spectrum they have plans for you and your money, the things they don't want you to do, the things they want you to pay for - for your own good.
The Greens for example have a long list of things they want to ban, subsidise and compel. They are control freaks par excellence. Labour isn't far behind, it believes it knows best to buy you health care, control your children's education and to save for your retirement. It buys you a railway that you didn't want to buy. The Maori Party also believes it knows best.
National will do less, but it wont reverse anything. Most disturbingly it wants the state to maintain a database of DNA of everyone arrested of certain offences, whether guilty or not. The state shouldn't be spying on you if you've not broken the law. National also thinks it can pick winners in spending your money on infrastructure whether or not you will use it. It offers nothing more than a better version of Labour - beyond the Electoral Finance Act, National will repeal nothing of substance that Labour has done.
I would like politics to be peripheral. Government is essential. The state provides for law and order, to protect us from those who will do violence to us, who will defraud us. That is a given and the priority. However, beyond that government is incompetent. I know it will take a long time for people to take responsibility, for their healthcare, for their kids education, to consider charity instead of welfare, and to stop thinking the government can fix problems they can't solve.
Politicians who promise they can change and fix things by spending your money and making people do what they want are shysters. Your only chance to say no to this advance auction of stolen goods is to vote for less of it.
Helen Clark and the Greens participate in it, gloriously and argue strongly that it is the only way things should be.
National participates in it, somewhat reluctantly, unable and unwilling to say no. Unable to say - sorry the government can't fix this, but it can get out of the way of those who might have a chance.
The government you get after the election tomorrow will be different, it could be John Key leading a semi-fresh team, of which he is probably the best person in it. I honestly wish him well, and I hope that all of the vote gathering is style not substance, and Key will change New Zealand for the better by getting the government out of the way and changing the culture of dependency on the state. Sadly I see little to prove to me that he will, even if a handful of ACT MPs push him a little further.
If Helen Clark and the Greens and Maori Party get elected then you'll see change, and it wont be pretty. However you can watch the next three years like I have watched the last 9, and see National unwilling to reverse almost everything Labour did.
Politics you see, is a nasty game. A game of surrendering principle, of kissing babies and promising to people that you'll give them things, without being honest about what you're taking from them. It is about kidding the vast masses of people that you can make their lives better, when the truth is people can really only do this themselves.
The election is about counting heads, not what was in them, but I hope you too will enjoy at least the sight of many politicians losing power, the sight of Helen Clark probably no longer being able to claim to be a victim of her own success as a popular and competent Prime Minister.
However as you do so, remember these people only have the power you have granted them. That is power you granted through your vote. I voted Libertarianz as the only power I want the state to have is to protect me. What power have you said you want the state to have over your life?
Gordon Brown has cause to cheer
In a busy political week, the UK has seen another by-election. This time in Glenrothes, Scotland.
Labour held onto the seat, with a majority of 6,737. A smaller majority, but still a great victory for Gordon Brown personally and Labour. With the SNP having fought hard to win the seat, it shows a few things about politics in Scotland.
1. The SNP, now being the government in Scotland, finds it hard to blame others for the failings of government. Labour just says "well the SNP looks after internal Scottish matters".
2. Labour has pointed out that an independent Scotland couldn't embark on the large scale (socialist) bank nationalisations and bailouts that the UK government can manage.
3. Scotland absolutely drowns in dependency on the state and what the state can do for people. The third place result for the Conservatives that only got 1,381 votes speaks volumes, and the Conservatives are no party of small government, just less statist that the others.
So Gordon Brown will be smiling.
Labour held onto the seat, with a majority of 6,737. A smaller majority, but still a great victory for Gordon Brown personally and Labour. With the SNP having fought hard to win the seat, it shows a few things about politics in Scotland.
1. The SNP, now being the government in Scotland, finds it hard to blame others for the failings of government. Labour just says "well the SNP looks after internal Scottish matters".
2. Labour has pointed out that an independent Scotland couldn't embark on the large scale (socialist) bank nationalisations and bailouts that the UK government can manage.
3. Scotland absolutely drowns in dependency on the state and what the state can do for people. The third place result for the Conservatives that only got 1,381 votes speaks volumes, and the Conservatives are no party of small government, just less statist that the others.
So Gordon Brown will be smiling.
Why Libertarianz and NOT Act
My reasons for 2005 are here, but since then National has moved to the left and ACT? Well it has changed too.
Those on the small government side of the spectrum are split between those who advocate voting for ACT, and those who say vote Libertarianz. The arguments on both sides are fairly short and sweet.
ACT advocates say:
1. A vote for ACT is a vote to move New Zealand towards less government, albeit at a far slower pace, degree and extent compared to Libertarianz.
2. ACT is almost guaranteed Parliamentary representation because Rodney Hide will almost certainly win Epsom.
So it comes down to ACT is pointing in the right direction and is in Parliament. However what does “the right direction mean”?
Being fair to ACT, the party looks better now than it has ever done. It has more policies to hinder the growth of the state than ever before, Rodney Hide has upped his game, and having Sir Roger Douglas on the ticket is notable, as he is light years ahead of any National MP in terms of courage and intellect.
ACT is better than National, but it didn’t need to work hard.
You see for me, I want to see six major changes in policies:
1. At least the option of opting out of state health and education.
2. Serious shrinkage of the welfare state
3. A significant reduction in the size of central and local government.
4. Significant reductions in tax consistent with the above.
5. Protection of private property rights.
6. Repeal of victimless crimes.
Obviously the Nats will do none of the above. How about ACT?
1. ACT policy is education vouchers, a step forward, and talks about an option for people to buy private healthcare. So, that gets a tick.
2. ACT would shift sickness beneficiaries towards an insurance based approach. Not exactly cutting the welfare state, but an improvement, so on balance the right direction.
3. ACT would cap central government to growing spending at the rate of inflation and population growth. That isn’t shrinking the state, it’s maintaining it at the same level as Labour. Standing still isn’t a direction. It would shrink local government, so why not central?
4. ACT’s tax policy sends mixed signals. It wouldn’t cut taxes until 2011. That is LESS than National. However, if you don’t shrink the state it is hardly a surprise. ACT also advocates a carbon tax. Yes you read right, it would replaced ETS with a carbon tax.
5. ACT would review the RMA so it would only supplement common law principles, but it doesn’t mention private property rights, except in terms of “where private property is taken or regulated for public good purposes.” So where are private property rights again? Why is it afraid of saying it?
6. Victimless crimes? ACT never discusses them, never touches them. It is tough on crime, but that doesn’t include reviewing criminal law. It has a “national security policy”
So with ACT I get something positive on health, education and welfare, I get the government of the same size as what Labour has left us with, and no tax cut for two years (but might get a carbon tax). I get the RMA reformed, but with no mention of private property rights, and of course ACT is silent on victimless crimes.
How, honestly, can a libertarian say that is worth voting for? I want tax cuts, I want the state to shrink. I don’t believe New Zealanders should have to put up with government as big as Labour has left us with and no tax cuts for two years. I want private property rights protected, I want a government that knows the difference between real crimes, like murder and theft, and victimless crimes, like bans on cigar magazines, smoking cannabis and allowing smoking inside your bar.
A vote for ACT is saying none of those things matter enough. To me they do. So vote ACT if you wish, but to do so you are accepting compromises with those who don’t want tax cuts, those who don’t want to protect private property rights from the RMA, those who believe zero tolerance should apply to all crimes, whether there is a victim or not.
I voted some days ago for Libertarianz, because I want to make a statement with my single vote, that the government shouldn’t own my life. Some Al Gore supporters in 2000 complained that those Americans who voted for Ralph Nader took Democrat votes off of Gore. They didn’t, they voted for what they wanted.
Your vote is a tiny indicator of what YOU believe in. It is nothing more than that. It isn't a veto - after all, it takes tens of thousands of votes to shift a single MP from one party to another.
So I am not “robbing ACT or National” of “their” vote. It is my vote. I voted for more freedom, less government – I invite you to do the same.
Those on the small government side of the spectrum are split between those who advocate voting for ACT, and those who say vote Libertarianz. The arguments on both sides are fairly short and sweet.
ACT advocates say:
1. A vote for ACT is a vote to move New Zealand towards less government, albeit at a far slower pace, degree and extent compared to Libertarianz.
2. ACT is almost guaranteed Parliamentary representation because Rodney Hide will almost certainly win Epsom.
So it comes down to ACT is pointing in the right direction and is in Parliament. However what does “the right direction mean”?
Being fair to ACT, the party looks better now than it has ever done. It has more policies to hinder the growth of the state than ever before, Rodney Hide has upped his game, and having Sir Roger Douglas on the ticket is notable, as he is light years ahead of any National MP in terms of courage and intellect.
ACT is better than National, but it didn’t need to work hard.
You see for me, I want to see six major changes in policies:
1. At least the option of opting out of state health and education.
2. Serious shrinkage of the welfare state
3. A significant reduction in the size of central and local government.
4. Significant reductions in tax consistent with the above.
5. Protection of private property rights.
6. Repeal of victimless crimes.
Obviously the Nats will do none of the above. How about ACT?
1. ACT policy is education vouchers, a step forward, and talks about an option for people to buy private healthcare. So, that gets a tick.
2. ACT would shift sickness beneficiaries towards an insurance based approach. Not exactly cutting the welfare state, but an improvement, so on balance the right direction.
3. ACT would cap central government to growing spending at the rate of inflation and population growth. That isn’t shrinking the state, it’s maintaining it at the same level as Labour. Standing still isn’t a direction. It would shrink local government, so why not central?
4. ACT’s tax policy sends mixed signals. It wouldn’t cut taxes until 2011. That is LESS than National. However, if you don’t shrink the state it is hardly a surprise. ACT also advocates a carbon tax. Yes you read right, it would replaced ETS with a carbon tax.
5. ACT would review the RMA so it would only supplement common law principles, but it doesn’t mention private property rights, except in terms of “where private property is taken or regulated for public good purposes.” So where are private property rights again? Why is it afraid of saying it?
6. Victimless crimes? ACT never discusses them, never touches them. It is tough on crime, but that doesn’t include reviewing criminal law. It has a “national security policy”
So with ACT I get something positive on health, education and welfare, I get the government of the same size as what Labour has left us with, and no tax cut for two years (but might get a carbon tax). I get the RMA reformed, but with no mention of private property rights, and of course ACT is silent on victimless crimes.
How, honestly, can a libertarian say that is worth voting for? I want tax cuts, I want the state to shrink. I don’t believe New Zealanders should have to put up with government as big as Labour has left us with and no tax cuts for two years. I want private property rights protected, I want a government that knows the difference between real crimes, like murder and theft, and victimless crimes, like bans on cigar magazines, smoking cannabis and allowing smoking inside your bar.
A vote for ACT is saying none of those things matter enough. To me they do. So vote ACT if you wish, but to do so you are accepting compromises with those who don’t want tax cuts, those who don’t want to protect private property rights from the RMA, those who believe zero tolerance should apply to all crimes, whether there is a victim or not.
I voted some days ago for Libertarianz, because I want to make a statement with my single vote, that the government shouldn’t own my life. Some Al Gore supporters in 2000 complained that those Americans who voted for Ralph Nader took Democrat votes off of Gore. They didn’t, they voted for what they wanted.
Your vote is a tiny indicator of what YOU believe in. It is nothing more than that. It isn't a veto - after all, it takes tens of thousands of votes to shift a single MP from one party to another.
So I am not “robbing ACT or National” of “their” vote. It is my vote. I voted for more freedom, less government – I invite you to do the same.
Legalise Cannabis?
Well if you believe adults should be able to peacefully consume cannabis on their own property, then your choice is rather simple.
The Green Party has abandoned pursuing this, partly because Nandor Tanczos has gone on to do other things, but also because it didn't really fit the ban/regulate/compel agenda of the party, and more importantly talking about it frightened middle class voters who thought the Greens approved of smoking cannabis. A vote for the Greens to get cannabis decriminalised or legalised is a wasted vote.
The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party has been on a long path to nowhere. It is completely dormant between elections. In 1996, it got 1.66% of the vote, in 1999 1.1%, in 2002 0.64% and in 2005 0.25%. As a one issue party it will never cross the 5% threshold, and has frittered away its support year after year. It also doesn't care about responsibility, doesn't care about healthcare or the right to ban cannabis users from private property. Ticking the leaf will mean nothing other than you only care about cannabis.
Libertarianz would legalise cannabis, and other drugs safer than alcohol, for sale and adult consumption on private property. It would also ensure users of such drugs would be responsible for paying for their own private health consequences, and while such consumption would be a right, it would be the right of private property owners to ban it on their own property, and for employers to insist employees do not enter their premises under the influence of the drug. Legalisation does not mean approval or disapproval, it is simply not the business of the state to tell you what you must or must not ingest.
So I urge those who regard the cannabis laws to be oppressive, those who see the current laws as being an abject failure, and those who believe they should choose what they ingest (but also be responsible for the consequences of consumption), to vote Libertarianz. Odds are that Libertarianz will beat the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party this time round, given the trends of both parties, and a vote for the Greens on this point will be wasted. The Greens failed to make a change in the past 9 years of government that they effectively endorsed.
The Green Party has abandoned pursuing this, partly because Nandor Tanczos has gone on to do other things, but also because it didn't really fit the ban/regulate/compel agenda of the party, and more importantly talking about it frightened middle class voters who thought the Greens approved of smoking cannabis. A vote for the Greens to get cannabis decriminalised or legalised is a wasted vote.
The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party has been on a long path to nowhere. It is completely dormant between elections. In 1996, it got 1.66% of the vote, in 1999 1.1%, in 2002 0.64% and in 2005 0.25%. As a one issue party it will never cross the 5% threshold, and has frittered away its support year after year. It also doesn't care about responsibility, doesn't care about healthcare or the right to ban cannabis users from private property. Ticking the leaf will mean nothing other than you only care about cannabis.
Libertarianz would legalise cannabis, and other drugs safer than alcohol, for sale and adult consumption on private property. It would also ensure users of such drugs would be responsible for paying for their own private health consequences, and while such consumption would be a right, it would be the right of private property owners to ban it on their own property, and for employers to insist employees do not enter their premises under the influence of the drug. Legalisation does not mean approval or disapproval, it is simply not the business of the state to tell you what you must or must not ingest.
So I urge those who regard the cannabis laws to be oppressive, those who see the current laws as being an abject failure, and those who believe they should choose what they ingest (but also be responsible for the consequences of consumption), to vote Libertarianz. Odds are that Libertarianz will beat the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party this time round, given the trends of both parties, and a vote for the Greens on this point will be wasted. The Greens failed to make a change in the past 9 years of government that they effectively endorsed.
You think the small government vote is split?
Forget ACT vs Libertarianz. If you really believe in really big government, then the two main ends of THAT spectrum, the Marxist and the conservative are all very split as below:
If you have a Christian bent to politics:
Kiwi Party- The Future part of United Future, divorced. It wants to raise the drinking age, criminalise buying sexual services, make drug laws on a par with murder, raise the minimum wage and use GST instead of road user charges to fund roads? Weird - a mix of all sorts of stuff. Shame Rebekah Clement hasn't left, she is brighter than Gordon Copeland.
Family Party – Destiny NZ with a new name. Tougher version of the Kiwi Party and little regard for separating church and state. The morality of Brian Tamaki and all that is about.
Pacific Party – Philip Field, and the morality attached to him.
Ah better than Christian Heritage right?
However, if you miss the Soviet Union, loathe capitalism, individualism, business and believe nothing would be better than to unite the workers so they’ll never be defeated by the beloved people’s government, and you think Helen Clark is a sellout to global capitalism. You can choose:
The Alliance – Yes, nationalise, keep those foreigners and their money out, make everything free and pine about Muldoon (quietly) and how Jim Anderton is a sellout.
RAM – Foaming at the mouth conspiracy theory led Marxists who think big money is running everything, and only when they control things through the state can they look after themselves, I mean you. This is where the really crazy Alliance people went, I know, I talked to one and I wondered where her straight jacket went.
Workers' Party – You can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs, so think of the firing squads, gulags, political prisons and the 100 million slaughtered by communism as a small price to pay to defeat capitalism. Workers' Marxist Leninist dictatorships have such a record of poverty, executions, torture and despair, but hey that was all cooked up by the American Zionist conspiracy - all those fake witnesses to murder in those workers' paradises. Not quite North Korean friendly, but wouldn’t have been distressed had North Korea won the Korean War.
Greens – Yes the Marxist party you have when you want to seem respectable. Policies on almost everything, science replaced with faith based ideologies, enthusiasm to regulate, ban, compel, tax and subsidise all they hate and love respectively, AND most of the MPs have Marxist backgrounds. Allegedly about the environment, but doesn't let reason, science and economics get in the way of a good bit of telling people what to do.
If you have a Christian bent to politics:
Kiwi Party- The Future part of United Future, divorced. It wants to raise the drinking age, criminalise buying sexual services, make drug laws on a par with murder, raise the minimum wage and use GST instead of road user charges to fund roads? Weird - a mix of all sorts of stuff. Shame Rebekah Clement hasn't left, she is brighter than Gordon Copeland.
Family Party – Destiny NZ with a new name. Tougher version of the Kiwi Party and little regard for separating church and state. The morality of Brian Tamaki and all that is about.
Pacific Party – Philip Field, and the morality attached to him.
Ah better than Christian Heritage right?
However, if you miss the Soviet Union, loathe capitalism, individualism, business and believe nothing would be better than to unite the workers so they’ll never be defeated by the beloved people’s government, and you think Helen Clark is a sellout to global capitalism. You can choose:
The Alliance – Yes, nationalise, keep those foreigners and their money out, make everything free and pine about Muldoon (quietly) and how Jim Anderton is a sellout.
RAM – Foaming at the mouth conspiracy theory led Marxists who think big money is running everything, and only when they control things through the state can they look after themselves, I mean you. This is where the really crazy Alliance people went, I know, I talked to one and I wondered where her straight jacket went.
Workers' Party – You can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs, so think of the firing squads, gulags, political prisons and the 100 million slaughtered by communism as a small price to pay to defeat capitalism. Workers' Marxist Leninist dictatorships have such a record of poverty, executions, torture and despair, but hey that was all cooked up by the American Zionist conspiracy - all those fake witnesses to murder in those workers' paradises. Not quite North Korean friendly, but wouldn’t have been distressed had North Korea won the Korean War.
Greens – Yes the Marxist party you have when you want to seem respectable. Policies on almost everything, science replaced with faith based ideologies, enthusiasm to regulate, ban, compel, tax and subsidise all they hate and love respectively, AND most of the MPs have Marxist backgrounds. Allegedly about the environment, but doesn't let reason, science and economics get in the way of a good bit of telling people what to do.
So why shouldn't you vote National?
Given I’ve already told you how to vote in your electorate, it’s time to think about your party vote.
I’ll make a few assumptions:
1. You want a change, not an Obama like bland “change” without saying to what, but you want rid of the Labour led government, you want a change in direction, you want...
2. Less government. Government that doesn't assume that government should regulate, compel, tax or subsidise – and that is in business and personal life.
So as a result you have to rule out Labour and all parties that would grant Labour confidence and supply. The Greens, Maori Party, Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party, United Future and NZ First are all in this vein. If you like the views I express here, but intend to vote for one of those parties then I can’t help you anymore.
So National?
National has swung to the left since 2005. It has policies that in principle and substance are no different from Labour – they are different forms of the same thing. National would cut taxes more than Labour, but its interest in controlling the size of the state is about efficiency, not abolishing departments, and not reducing the amount of legislation. National promises to spend a fortune of your money on infrastructure whether or not you use it, and to subsidise the telecommunications sector. It wont make a fundamental difference to health, education or the welfare state, in fact it will increase the welfare state. It promises to keep a DNA database for every person arrested of an imprisonable offence, whether guilty or not. National and freedom do not go together, it will trade off having “one law for all” and “colourblind state spending” for a coalition with the Maori Party.
What will it do?
- National will continue to make you pay for the state controlled queue rationed health system. You wont be able to opt out, or get your taxes back for using private healthcare.
- National will continue to make you pay for the centrally funded and controlled state education system, whether it suits you or your childrens' needs or not.
- National will maintain and grow the welfare state, and retain all of Labour's increases in it (Working for Families, income related state housing rentals).
- National will maintain and grow the state's role in the economy, including Kiwibank, Kiwirail, Air NZ and subsidise a state controlled broadband telecommunications network.
- National will amend the RMA toprotect private property rights and to accelerate state funded infrastructure projects.
- National will maintain the Maori seats and maintain state broadcasting in all its forms, Maori, Pacific Island, TVNZ and Radio NZ.
- National will, somehow, ban gangs, whilst building a DNA database for everyone arrested of a serious crime, whether found guilty or not.
- National will continue and strengthen the war on drugs.
- National will keep local government's powers of general competence and grow its role, by involving it in 20 year plans. It wont cap local government rates or spending.
- National will not abolish a single government agency, including the Families Commission.
- National will continue to force you to pay into the worst pension scheme in the country, with no guaranteed returns, whilst forcing that scheme to invest 40% in New Zealand.
A vote for National is a vote to change heads, a vote for people who – in a quiet discreet moment – might agree with much of what I believe in, but haven’t the courage, skill or conviction to argue for it, or implement it. In which case, why be in politics if all you want is a different version of the status quo?
By ticking National you are saying that even going back to National's policies in 1999 is too radical, you're endorsing most of what Labour has done since 1999 since National will repeal so little. The best you can hope for is:
- Slightly bigger tax cuts than Labour.
- Less enthusiasm for more government than Labour.
- Repeal of the Electoral Finance Act.
- Tougher approach to law and order where it matters (but also victimless crimes too).
No. If you believe in less government, you can't tick National for your party vote. You will change the government by name and by people, but not in substance. Instead of moving left at pace, New Zealand will move left at a snail's pace. It's hardly surprising. Every National government, except 1990-1993, and even then it included the RMA, has at best just adopted Labour's past policies and changed little, at worst it went far far further into Nanny State (Rob Muldoon).
You can't expect the National Party to change anything - it exists for power, that is, to stop Labour having it.
So what about ACT then?
I’ll make a few assumptions:
1. You want a change, not an Obama like bland “change” without saying to what, but you want rid of the Labour led government, you want a change in direction, you want...
2. Less government. Government that doesn't assume that government should regulate, compel, tax or subsidise – and that is in business and personal life.
So as a result you have to rule out Labour and all parties that would grant Labour confidence and supply. The Greens, Maori Party, Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party, United Future and NZ First are all in this vein. If you like the views I express here, but intend to vote for one of those parties then I can’t help you anymore.
So National?
National has swung to the left since 2005. It has policies that in principle and substance are no different from Labour – they are different forms of the same thing. National would cut taxes more than Labour, but its interest in controlling the size of the state is about efficiency, not abolishing departments, and not reducing the amount of legislation. National promises to spend a fortune of your money on infrastructure whether or not you use it, and to subsidise the telecommunications sector. It wont make a fundamental difference to health, education or the welfare state, in fact it will increase the welfare state. It promises to keep a DNA database for every person arrested of an imprisonable offence, whether guilty or not. National and freedom do not go together, it will trade off having “one law for all” and “colourblind state spending” for a coalition with the Maori Party.
What will it do?
- National will continue to make you pay for the state controlled queue rationed health system. You wont be able to opt out, or get your taxes back for using private healthcare.
- National will continue to make you pay for the centrally funded and controlled state education system, whether it suits you or your childrens' needs or not.
- National will maintain and grow the welfare state, and retain all of Labour's increases in it (Working for Families, income related state housing rentals).
- National will maintain and grow the state's role in the economy, including Kiwibank, Kiwirail, Air NZ and subsidise a state controlled broadband telecommunications network.
- National will amend the RMA to
- National will maintain the Maori seats and maintain state broadcasting in all its forms, Maori, Pacific Island, TVNZ and Radio NZ.
- National will, somehow, ban gangs, whilst building a DNA database for everyone arrested of a serious crime, whether found guilty or not.
- National will continue and strengthen the war on drugs.
- National will keep local government's powers of general competence and grow its role, by involving it in 20 year plans. It wont cap local government rates or spending.
- National will not abolish a single government agency, including the Families Commission.
- National will continue to force you to pay into the worst pension scheme in the country, with no guaranteed returns, whilst forcing that scheme to invest 40% in New Zealand.
A vote for National is a vote to change heads, a vote for people who – in a quiet discreet moment – might agree with much of what I believe in, but haven’t the courage, skill or conviction to argue for it, or implement it. In which case, why be in politics if all you want is a different version of the status quo?
By ticking National you are saying that even going back to National's policies in 1999 is too radical, you're endorsing most of what Labour has done since 1999 since National will repeal so little. The best you can hope for is:
- Slightly bigger tax cuts than Labour.
- Less enthusiasm for more government than Labour.
- Repeal of the Electoral Finance Act.
- Tougher approach to law and order where it matters (but also victimless crimes too).
No. If you believe in less government, you can't tick National for your party vote. You will change the government by name and by people, but not in substance. Instead of moving left at pace, New Zealand will move left at a snail's pace. It's hardly surprising. Every National government, except 1990-1993, and even then it included the RMA, has at best just adopted Labour's past policies and changed little, at worst it went far far further into Nanny State (Rob Muldoon).
You can't expect the National Party to change anything - it exists for power, that is, to stop Labour having it.
So what about ACT then?
Libertarianz pro-cycling? sure
When Cycling Advocates’ Network asked political parties what their policies on cycling are, Libertarianz had a very easy response. Cycling isn't special.
You see the question was:
Do you support increased provision for cycling through policy, funding or implementation?
So the answer is, yes, if people choose to fund it. It is no if it is about forcing people to fund it. Cycling is a great activity if you like it, cyclists share road space which they don’t pay for (except for rates on local roads) and if cyclists or others want to pay for bike paths, lockers and the rest, then there shouldn’t be barriers on them doing so.
However CAN was looking for subsidies. It wants to make you pay for cycling infrastructure, whether or not you are a cyclist or want to support it. It is no different from asking general taxpayers to pay for roads, electricity or telecommunications - those are all subsidies – and in fact Labour has subsidised all three.
Libertarianz wont make others pay for cycling facilities, but it wont make cyclists pay for what others use too. Cyclists shouldn't pay to subsidise buses with their rates, or to subsidise roads used heavily by trucks. No other party will do that.
After all, what should cyclists expect from the government?
You see the question was:
Do you support increased provision for cycling through policy, funding or implementation?
So the answer is, yes, if people choose to fund it. It is no if it is about forcing people to fund it. Cycling is a great activity if you like it, cyclists share road space which they don’t pay for (except for rates on local roads) and if cyclists or others want to pay for bike paths, lockers and the rest, then there shouldn’t be barriers on them doing so.
However CAN was looking for subsidies. It wants to make you pay for cycling infrastructure, whether or not you are a cyclist or want to support it. It is no different from asking general taxpayers to pay for roads, electricity or telecommunications - those are all subsidies – and in fact Labour has subsidised all three.
Libertarianz wont make others pay for cycling facilities, but it wont make cyclists pay for what others use too. Cyclists shouldn't pay to subsidise buses with their rates, or to subsidise roads used heavily by trucks. No other party will do that.
After all, what should cyclists expect from the government?
06 November 2008
Libertyscott's Electorate voting guide
The electorate vote is not as important as the party vote, with a few distinguished exceptions. So how should you vote? Taking the lead from Blair Mulholland, I've thought long and hard about all of them.
So here is the Libertyscott guide to your electorate vote. It is based on the following premises:
1. Vote for the candidate who most supports giving you back your freedom and taxes.
2. Vote for the candidate who is most likely to defeat the worst candidate.
3. Let a mediocre incumbent who has little chance of being unseated alone by voting for the person who is least objectionable.
Some are more important than other. The names in bold are those that you can vote for positively OR which make a difference against someone quite loathsome.
I've endorsed 26 National candidates, 16 Libertarianz, 15 ACT, 11 Labour, 1 Maori Party and 1 seat I can't pick at all.
Now most of you who love freedom can't disagree with that can you? After all National only won 27 seats in 2002!
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye - National
This is a chance to defeat Judith Tizard. Nikki Kaye is smarter, harder working and as a bonus, better looking that the former Minister assisting the Prime Minister with her handbag. Tizard is a mediocrity. It is time to remove the peculiar Tizard dynasty from New Zealand politics. She is not high up the Labour list enough to be safe. National needs the likes of a young ambitious intelligent woman like Kaye. Your electorate vote counts here, give it to Nikki Kaye.
Bay of Plenty - Frances Denz - ACT
Tony Ryall has this seat in the bag. He is one of the mediocre “brat pack” who helped National achieve its worst defeat ever in 2002. He doesn’t need your vote. The Labour alternative has no chance and is hopeless as well, and we don’t need Peter Brown. ACT’s Frances Denz is ex. Labour and should be rewarded for moving in the right direction. Give Frances your electorate vote.
Botany - Kenneth Wang - ACT
Botany is a new seat that has become the Wang Wong show. Kenneth Wang doesn’t have a profile on the ACT website, but does have a website. Pansy Wong is in on the list anyway. You might tick Wang, but if ACT only gets enough party votes for 3 MPs, then Wang pushes Roger Douglas out of Parliament because the third MP, after Hide and Roy will be Wang. Funnily enough leftwing voters in Botany might find it preferable to vote for Wang if they dislike Douglas. For me, Wang seems the better choice, because Wong has hardly been that impressive.
Christchurch Central - Nicky Wagner - National
Brendon Burns is the Labour candidate, who was Labour’s chief spin doctor in the Beehive. He’s well up the Clark hierarchy so it is important to vote against him. Nicky Wagner the National candidate is already a list MP. She speaks in favour of many mad Nat policies, like 40% local investment from the Superannuation Fund, so is otherwise loathsome but this is about Burns. Burns is lowly ranked on the Labour list. Wagner will be elected regardless so electing her as the local MP will deny Burns from Parliament, and will mean she is an electorate MP, not a list MP – in Labour heartland. So hold your nose and vote for Wagner.
Christchurch East - Aaron Gilmore - National
Lianne Dalziel has this one cornered, with National’s Aaron Gilmore having little chance. I know Aaron’s wife, and she is intelligent so I trust her judgment. Give Aaron your vote to try to get Dalziel’s share of the vote below 50%.
Clutha Southland - Roly Henderson - ACT
Bill English is a shoo in, so you can happily vote for someone who believes in freedom. Roly Henderson of ACT is a sheep farmer who says “We don’t need our government to do more for us, we need less government so we can do more” that’ll do nicely.
Coromandel - Sandra Goudie - National
Sandra Goudie of National did good work in removing Jeanette Fitzsimons from this seat and she isn’t half bad. Give her the tick, Jeanette comes third in this seat that she once held – a fairly devastating verdict.
Dunedin North - Michael Woodhouse - National
Pete Hodgson is another shoo in, so tick Michael Woodhouse of National. He is President of the NZ Private Surgical Hospitals Association and was previously the Vice President of the NZ Private Hospitals Association, so he’d bring a useful perspective on private sector provision of health care to the National caucus.
Dunedin South - Conway Powell - National
Clare Curran is out to capture Benson- Pope’s seat for Labour. She’s a vile little PR hack who is seeking to portray National as enemies of the people. As a result, Dr Conway Powell, a centrist scientist standing for National is worth a vote to try to keep her out of Parliament.
East Coast - none of them
Anne Tolley took this from Labour last time, but Anne Tolley has a problem. She likes censorship. Now while I agree with her concerns about child pornography, she drafted a (defeated) bill that would have banned any material that “deal with” sexual conduct by young people. It would have banned a vast range of novels, films and indeed information leaflets.
Drafting kneejerk bills about laws you know little about isn’t encouraging. Moana Mackey? Well she is leftwing, she likes unions, compulsory Maori language and bleats on about the 1990s being a horrible time. The bright side is she is a scientist and supports allowing genetic engineering on a case by case basis. Judy Turner from United Future doesn’t deserve your vote either, and Catherine Delahunty is on the far left of the Greens. Advice? You don’t want to be associated with any of these control freaks. Don’t bother.
East Coast Bays - Elah Zamora - Libertarianz
Murray McCully is a shoo in, so vote for Elah Zamora of Libertarianz and know you’re voting for someone who is hard working and a determined supporter of freedom. The Labour candidate here is especially awful, so don’t even think about her if you hate McCully. Zamora is the moral choice.
Epsom - Rodney Hide - ACT
Richard Worth tried to paint Rodney Hide as being pro drug liberalisation, as if it were a bad thing. Rodney has been a good MP. Richard Worth is so awful I’d like Rodney to remain MP for Epsom. He is one of the better MPs in Parliament.
Hamilton East - David Bennett- National
National’s David Bennett took this from Dianne Yates, which was good although the Nat’s website lies about his age. His maiden speech talked about less welfare, more personal responsibility and tax cuts. Give him a chance and secure this seat from the awful Sue Moroney.
Hamilton West - Tim Wikiriwhi - Libertarianz
Labour’s Martin Gallagher could well face serious defeat here, BUT the National candidate – Tim Macindoe leads Arts Waikato, which seeks taxpayer money from Creative NZ and from local authorities. So he likes big government, so not really much point switching men but not philosophies. Vote for a man who has turned his life around, and who is passionate about what he does, and works very hard – Vote Tim Wikiriwhi, Libertarianz, Parliament wont know what’s hit it.
Hauraki-Waikato - Nanaia Mahuta - Labour
It’s a two horse race here, Nanaia Mahuta against Angeline Greensill. Greensill is seriously Marxist, so vote for Princess Mahuta. It also reduces the Maori Party overhang.
Helensville - Peter Osborne - Libertarianz
John Key doesn’t need your vote, he is in on the list and the awful Darien Fenton from Labour would be worse. Vote for Peter Osborne of Libertarianz. He’ll work hard calling National list MP John Key to account, without backtracking on his principles
Hunua - Bruce Whitehead - Libertarianz
The awful patronizing prick Paul Hutchison (I am speaking from experience here) will think he has this in the bag. He so doesn’t deserve it. Jordan Carter hasn’t a hope of Cubanisation of this seat, but Sir Roger Douglas does add some colour. However, Bruce Whitehead from Libertarianz deserves you vote. He says “money taken from you (via tax) to fund someone else's "great idea" without your permission is theft”, Sir Roger for what he’s worth would never say that. However he is a strong second choice, better than Hutchison.
Hutt South - Phil Howison - Libertarianz
Trevor Mallard doesn’t need your vote here. Paul Quinn of National negotiates Treaty settlements. Now I know both the ACT and Libz candidates here. Lindsay Mitchell is well deserving, but the young and very smart Phil Howison gets a hard time from most of the other candidates here and deserves your vote. He’s come through the state education system and survived to be spokesman on education. Give Phil Howison your electorate vote, after all Mallard will win anyway.
Ikaroa-Rawhiti - Parekura Horomia - Labour
Three in this race, the Greens aren’t worth considering, so it is Derek Fox vs Parekura. Fox is a long standing leftie who while wily and smart would also increase the overhang of the Maori Party. Hold your nose and vote for the big man Parekura Horomia – he will be in anyway on the list, but Fox doesn’t deserve to enter Parliament.
Ilam - Brian Davidson - ACT
Gerry Brownlee will slide into this easily, and Labour’s Sam Yau is too nice a guy to elect into Parliament. Brian Davidson for ACT doesn’t want to be an MP and says “He has been motivated to stand for the ACT Party in the Ilam Electorate by the propensity of this Labour Party to tell us how to run our lives and watch over us in an over regulated society which is strangling the enterprise and vision of this wonderful country”. Shrink Brownlee’s majority by giving Brian your electorate vote.
Invercargill - Shane Pleasance - Libertarianz
Eric Roy should manage to keep Lesley Soper out of Parliament (she’s just another braindead unionist), and Roy is just one of the mediocre middle ground of National. So give Shane Pleasance your electorate vote, he’s the Libertarianz candidate, Director of the Southland Chamber of Commerce and he believes in Invercargill, freedom and personal responsibility.
Kaikoura - Colin King - National
National’s Colin King is comfortable here against Labour’s nutty Brian McNamara, and he isn’t bad enough to vote against. I don’t know enough about ACT’s Dave Tattersfield to give him the nod, so make your own pick. I’d pick King, because Labour needs a hammering and it is nice to discourage a leftwing Labour candidate.
Mana - Richard Goode - Libertarianz
Winnie Laban is in under the list anyway, and the awful “Pakeha owe Maori loads” public sector consultant Hekia Parata of National is simply vile - from personal experience. Richard Goode of Libertarianz is mild mannered and one of the most rational speakers on liberalising drug laws in New Zealand today. Vote for Goode.
Mangere - Sua Sio - Labour
This is a race between the awful Philip Field, and Labour’s Sua Sio. National has Mita Harris, who works for DOC and has a past in Treaty claims. ACT has Michael Tabachnik, a university student. Look, Field would create a overhang if he won. So grin and bear it, vote for Sua Sio, because strategically this IS moderately important. Keep Field out.
Manukau East - Kanwal Bakshi - National
Ross Robertson is one of the Labour MPs I dislike least, and he isn’t on the party list which means if he wins, it helps keep the likes of Judith Tizard out of Parliament. However, he is pretty much guaranteed to get elected. Kanwal Bakshi of National is a businessman who set up a voluntary organization to help teenagers. You can’t go wrong voting for this man.
Manurewa - Cam Calder - National
I’m not so generous to George Hawkins. He was a hopeless Police Minister, and while he is on the right side of the Labour Party, and his victory also denies Labour one of its list members, this man isn’t exactly a stunning talent. Dr Cam Calder is National’s candidate and he is no libertarian, but seems decent enough. So take your choice. The ACT candidate doesn’t even have a profile on the ACT website. Hawkins or Calder hmmm.
Maungakiekie - Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga - National
The vile Carol Beaumont of Labour is vying for this seat. She’s a unionist and thinks Labour has benefited democracy. Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga is National’s candidate, he seems to have done well in business and in community work, so you can vote for him positively to keep the Marxist Beaumont out of Parliament.
Mount Albert - Ravi Musuku - National
Clarkistan means you want to feel positive about who to vote for. Sadly it’s not great here. The ACT candidate has no profile on the ACT website. National’s Ravi Musuku is a Methodist pastor, who is a mechanical engineer, not the party’s best. I’d probably give Musuku the tick, only because Clark is so so much worse, and he will come second.
Mount Roskill - Phil Goff - Labour
Phil Goff or Jackie Blue, hmmm there’s a choice. Goff could be Labour’s next leader, he’s one of the few left who could bring it back to the centre, but think how far he has slipped. Blue is in on the list, so she doesn’t need your vote. ACT’s Shawn Tan hasn’t given me enough reason to support him. I want more than that. Don’t feel bad about ticking Goff because he’s the most Rogernomic part of Labour left, but if you can’t then ticking Blue or Tan.
Napier - Chris Tremain - National
Chris Tremain is the successful businessman who is now the local MP, a Nat. The apologist for vile criminals, Russell Fairbrother is standing for Labour and it is too important to keep that man out of Parliament. He isn’t on the list, so keep him out. Vote for Tremain to keep Fairbrother out.
Nelson - Maryan Street - Labour
Maryan Street is one of Labour’s best and smartest candidates. Yes she is part of the Clark government through and through, but she isn’t Nick Smith. Nick Smith is the most loathsome of National MPs, a little control freak, who doesn’t believe in private property rights, who embraces the RMA. So vote Street, because for all she is, she is better than Smith.
New Lynn - Tim Groser - National
Local MP Silent T is a vile nasty character, whose intelligence belies a cold instinct to love power and step on those who get in his way. National’s Tim Groser is a solid supporter of free trade and damnit we need that. Vote for Groser to give Silent T a kick where it hurts and to support one of the better Nat MPs.
New Plymouth - Mike Webber - Libertarianz
Harry Duynhoven is probably a shoo in here too, for some reason this town’s just wild about Harry. Mike Webber of Libertarianz is good at giving the bastards heaps, he’s a feisty chap and deserving of your vote.
North Shore - Michael Murphy - Libertarianz
Wayne Mapp will win this, so you’re safe giving the good natured, hard working and far more entertaining Michael Murphy of Libertarianz your vote. He’s President of Takapuna RSA and done more to serve his country than the others combined.
Northcote - Peter Linton - Libertarianz
Dr Jonathan Coleman is the Nat MP. He’s a clever chap but at 26 on the list he’s in anyway. Pick Peter Linton of Libertarianz. He’ll stir them up and be a strong advocate for your self defence and your right to decide on your health care and education.
Northland - Alan Wood - ACT
Hone Carter’s seat of course, so you can vote elsewhere happily. Blair suggested Shane Jones of Labour. ACT’s Alan Wood is a lemongrower. I have no other reason to vote for him, but it’s better than Hone or Jones, so give Alan Wood your tick.
Ohariu - Katrina Shanks - National
Ahh yes a very important seat. It’s simple. Dunne has to go. This man has voted to keep Labour in power for two terms and to grow bureaucracy. Katrina Shanks is National’s candidate. Charles Chauvel is a Clark lackey and National could do with more clever women. Vote Shanks to remove Labour’s right hand man.
Otaki - Peter McCaffrey - ACT
Darren Hughes will lose this seat, but Nathan Guy is into Transmission Gully, his maiden speech used the word “free” once and he talked favourably about how important Nandor’s “Waste Minimisation Bill” is. You can’t seriously vote for this guy, beyond how he apparently is good looking says Cactus Kate. Peter McCaffrey of ACT leads ACT on Campus Wellington, which is worth supporting. Give him the tick.
Pakuranga - Maurice Williamson - National
Maurice Williamson’s seat. Maurice is one of National’s better MPs, being an opponent of the awful move to the left of English in 2002, and supporting Brash in 2005. Key has stomped on Maurice, so that’s enough reason to give Maurice the benefit of the doubt.
Palmerston North - Malcolm Plimmer - National
Labour candidate Iain Lees-Galloway is trying to succeed Steve Maharey, and he is worse. This man is just vile, being anti-individualism and a unionist. Vote to keep him out, Malcolm Plimmer of National is uninspiring, but this is about keeping Lees-Galloway out of this seat. Turn Palmy blue.
Papakura - Judith Collins- National
Dave Hereora is one of Labour’s under performers, give Judith Collins the tick in the hope she might be a future National leader. Seriously, there isn’t really anyone else with the capability to succeed Key.
Port Hills - Geoff Russell - ACT
Dyson is awful, and Social Credit nutbar Terry Heffernan is worse. Dyson is in on the list anyway, so voting for her to keep Heffernan out makes sense. If you can’t stand that it is Geoff Russell of ACT who might give you an out, but seriously Heffernan stood for Social Credit, the Alliance and NZ First, umpteen times and failed. The Nats need to be punished for adopting this fool.
Rangitata - Jo Goodhew - National
Jo Goodhew is the Nat MP. There is no good reason to vote against her, she described herself in her maiden speech as one who “juggle work and family, who scorn political correctness, who value self-reliance and believe that working hard should bring personal benefits, not increased taxation”. Not great, but not bad, so give her a tick.
Rangitikei - Jean Thompson Church - ACT
Simon Power insurmountable fortress. You might tick Steve Gibson, an independent, because he’s a cop who cut crime in Taihape, but he also issued over 100 speeding tickets in one day. Jills Angus Burney had no profile on the Labour website, showing she’s not interested. Jean Thompson Church is ACT’s candidate, and she is quite elderly. Let her get her deposit back and give her a tick, because Power will get in regardless.
Rimutaka - Nigel Kearney - ACT
Now Swain is off with his young new bride, it is a bit more wide open. Richard Whiteside is the National candidate (the Labour one – Chris Hipkins is far too leftwing to endorse) and is a lot like John Key in that he doesn’t really say anything. ACT’s Nigel Kearney has a blog and expresses views that aren’t far removed from my own. So give him the tick, don’t worry – Ron Mark wont win here.
Rodney - Beryl Good - ACT
Lockwood Smith is one of the most disappointing of National’s MPs. He showed his testicles were inert against teachers’ unions in the early 1990s. He deserves to be out, but Conor Roberts – a student unionist, has no hope of doing this. Vote Beryl Good for ACT as she has more interest in freedom than Lockwood, and you wont feel so dirty voting for her.
Rongotai - Mitch Lees - Libertarianz
You have the smart and apparently good looking Mitch Lees of Libertarianz to vote for. He’s smarter and better looking than the rest, but the main reason you want to vote for him is to beat Gordon Copeland and Russel Norman. Annette King is hardly threatened by Chris Finlayson, although he is one of the better Nat candidates.
Rotorua - Fred Stevens - Libertarianz
Steve Chadwick is finished, but Todd McClay is from that National family. So really you’d feel better voting for Fred Stevens of Libertarianz, at least so he can beat the nutty RAM candidate.
Selwyn - Amy Adams - National
Amy Adams of National will almost certainly pick this one up, and she’s alright, better than Labour’s David Coates. Give her a tick, the Nats need more intelligent women in their caucus.
Tamaki - Allan Peachey - National
Allan Peachey is a sensible National MP who will win and who there isn’t really good enough reason to vote against. Jo Bartley of Labour was invisible when I searched for her, so give Allan your vote.
Tamaki-Makaurau - Pita Sharples - Maori Party
Louisa Wall isn’t good enough against Pita Sharples, who for all that is wrong with him is better than she is. He’s by far the best of the Maori Party caucus so deserves to win again.
Taranaki-King Country - Bill Izard - ACT
Shane Ardern, yawn. Yep, what a star. Bill Izard of ACT seems invisible too. The Labour candidate is invisible as well. I’d probably tick Izard given Ardern nearly was beaten by Owen Jennings, and the electorate that voted Jim Bolger in incessantly needs a shake up.
Taupo - Louise Upston - National
is a Labour seat likely to go to the Nats. Voting Louise Upston would help seal the deal to get rid of Mark Burton who is too low down the Labour list to remain.
Tauranga - Simon Bridges - National
You know what you have to do. Vote Simon Bridges National to put your nail in the coffin for Winston’s political career. Even excluding that he aint half bad.
Te Atatu - Tau Henare - National
Chris Carter will remain in on the list. Tau Henare will make things more interesting, and I can’t tick an ACT candidate who is law and order obsessed. The main value in Henare is he will shake up the boring Nat caucus.
Te Tai Hauauru - Errol Mason - Labour
You can’t vote for Tariana Turia, she’s mad as can be. Tick Errol Mason, he’ll help keep Judith Tizard out as he is well down the Labour list.
Te Tai Tokerau - Peter Tashkoff - ACT
The loathsome Marxist Hone Harawira doesn’t deserve your vote, Peter Tashkoff of ACT does, if only to show that the Maori seats aren’t a two horse race.
Te Tai Tonga - Mahara Okeroa - Labour
Mahara Okeroa will keep the Maori party away from overhang. There is no other reason to vote for him.
Tukituki - Craig Foss - National
Yes well Craig Foss is the Nat MP, Rick Barker was the Labour MP and to be fair to Foss he’s been fighting hard on the HBDHB issues with the government. The ACT candidate Duncan Lennox founded a Christian school, which of course is enough of a reason for an objectivist to say – tick Foss.
Waiariki - Mita Ririnui - Labour
Mita Ririnui will keep the Maori party away from overhang. Again, no other reason to vote for him.
Waikato - Mark Davies - ACT
Lindsay Tisch hasn’t been a star, and Jacinda Ardern the young London based Labour candidate is standing. She’ll be in on the list, so don’t give her a second thought. Mark Davies of ACT is saying the right things, so give him a tick.
Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove - Labour
Keeping Clayton Cosgrove around will annoy the Labour left and Kate Wilkinson of National is already a list MP. So why not tick Clayton Cosgrove, he was a Mike Moore acolyte and must be a moderating influence.
Wairarapa - Richard McGrath - Libertarianz
Vote for NZ’s most freedom loving GP – Dr Richard McGrath for Libertarianz. He’s a fine man, and given the Nat’s John Hayes will win, you don’t want someone called Amy Tubman from the Alliance to beat him now do you?
Waitakere - Paula Bennett - National
Paula Bennett of National needs your vote to try to unseat the Marxist Lynne Pillay.
Waitaki - David Parker - Labour
Yes, take Blair’s advice, swallow a hard drink and vote David Parker, the Labour candidate. Jacqui Dean is the current MP and an enemy of freedom, voting against her is like voting against Jim Anderton. Her website says “Jacqui thrives on hitting the road”, make her hit it with her fist on all fours in disappointment. Parker is in anyway on the list, so hold your nose and vote Parker.
Wellington Central - Bernard Darnton - Libertarianz
Now I know it is wide open, and you might just think Stephen Franks is worth a shot, but the man is no libertarian. He is intelligent and articulate, but did he try to take Helen Clark to court for breaking the law? No – Bernard Darnton - Libertarianz Leader did – he deserves your vote here for fighting for the rule of law and liberal democracy. Franks doesn’t deserve credit for moving from ACT to National, and National doesn’t value him enough to put him high up the list – so vote for freedom, vote for Darnton.
West Coast-Tasman - Damien O'Connor - Labour
Chris Auchinvole is the Nat list MP standing against Damien O’Connor. He is ok, but there is a good reason for voting for O’Connor. He will take a list position from someone else who is bound to be worse. O’Connor is on the Labour right and doesn’t pander to political correctness. So hold your nose and vote for him. It’s not that there is anything wrong with Auchinvole, but this is about keeping the rump Labour party from being the mad unionist cabal it looks like being.
Whanganui - Alan Davidson - ACT
Chester Borrows is the Nat MP here, he thinks all children are ours and like Sue Bradford says “I want to live in a country that claims all children as their own and accepts the glory and the responsibility of that”. The Labour candidate isn’t worth ticking, the ACT candidate Alan Davidson wont win but his profile does talk about not telling people how to run their lives. You can tick that.
Whangarei - Helen Hughes - Libertarianz
Phil Heatley is another shoo in here, so you can safely vote for someone who does passionately believe in individual freedom. Vote Helen Hughes for Libertarianz, with pride. She’s more charismatic and better looking than Heatley any day.
Wigram - Ben Morgan - Libertarianz
Jim Anderton isn’t under any serious threat here, because the vote against him is split two ways. ex. United Future MP, now Nat Marc Alexander doesn’t deserve your vote, as he isn’t really a believer in individual freedom. The Labour candidate Erin Ebbor-Gillespie is much worse than Jim Anderton, even though voting for her would probably increase the chance of Labour being defeated (as she’d replace a list MP, and ousting Anderton would shrink the left vote). Ben Morgan of Libertarianz stands for freedom, and so it’s time people in Anderton’s seat stood up for it too.
So here is the Libertyscott guide to your electorate vote. It is based on the following premises:
1. Vote for the candidate who most supports giving you back your freedom and taxes.
2. Vote for the candidate who is most likely to defeat the worst candidate.
3. Let a mediocre incumbent who has little chance of being unseated alone by voting for the person who is least objectionable.
Some are more important than other. The names in bold are those that you can vote for positively OR which make a difference against someone quite loathsome.
I've endorsed 26 National candidates, 16 Libertarianz, 15 ACT, 11 Labour, 1 Maori Party and 1 seat I can't pick at all.
Now most of you who love freedom can't disagree with that can you? After all National only won 27 seats in 2002!
Auckland Central - Nikki Kaye - National
This is a chance to defeat Judith Tizard. Nikki Kaye is smarter, harder working and as a bonus, better looking that the former Minister assisting the Prime Minister with her handbag. Tizard is a mediocrity. It is time to remove the peculiar Tizard dynasty from New Zealand politics. She is not high up the Labour list enough to be safe. National needs the likes of a young ambitious intelligent woman like Kaye. Your electorate vote counts here, give it to Nikki Kaye.
Bay of Plenty - Frances Denz - ACT
Tony Ryall has this seat in the bag. He is one of the mediocre “brat pack” who helped National achieve its worst defeat ever in 2002. He doesn’t need your vote. The Labour alternative has no chance and is hopeless as well, and we don’t need Peter Brown. ACT’s Frances Denz is ex. Labour and should be rewarded for moving in the right direction. Give Frances your electorate vote.
Botany - Kenneth Wang - ACT
Botany is a new seat that has become the Wang Wong show. Kenneth Wang doesn’t have a profile on the ACT website, but does have a website. Pansy Wong is in on the list anyway. You might tick Wang, but if ACT only gets enough party votes for 3 MPs, then Wang pushes Roger Douglas out of Parliament because the third MP, after Hide and Roy will be Wang. Funnily enough leftwing voters in Botany might find it preferable to vote for Wang if they dislike Douglas. For me, Wang seems the better choice, because Wong has hardly been that impressive.
Christchurch Central - Nicky Wagner - National
Brendon Burns is the Labour candidate, who was Labour’s chief spin doctor in the Beehive. He’s well up the Clark hierarchy so it is important to vote against him. Nicky Wagner the National candidate is already a list MP. She speaks in favour of many mad Nat policies, like 40% local investment from the Superannuation Fund, so is otherwise loathsome but this is about Burns. Burns is lowly ranked on the Labour list. Wagner will be elected regardless so electing her as the local MP will deny Burns from Parliament, and will mean she is an electorate MP, not a list MP – in Labour heartland. So hold your nose and vote for Wagner.
Christchurch East - Aaron Gilmore - National
Lianne Dalziel has this one cornered, with National’s Aaron Gilmore having little chance. I know Aaron’s wife, and she is intelligent so I trust her judgment. Give Aaron your vote to try to get Dalziel’s share of the vote below 50%.
Clutha Southland - Roly Henderson - ACT
Bill English is a shoo in, so you can happily vote for someone who believes in freedom. Roly Henderson of ACT is a sheep farmer who says “We don’t need our government to do more for us, we need less government so we can do more” that’ll do nicely.
Coromandel - Sandra Goudie - National
Sandra Goudie of National did good work in removing Jeanette Fitzsimons from this seat and she isn’t half bad. Give her the tick, Jeanette comes third in this seat that she once held – a fairly devastating verdict.
Dunedin North - Michael Woodhouse - National
Pete Hodgson is another shoo in, so tick Michael Woodhouse of National. He is President of the NZ Private Surgical Hospitals Association and was previously the Vice President of the NZ Private Hospitals Association, so he’d bring a useful perspective on private sector provision of health care to the National caucus.
Dunedin South - Conway Powell - National
Clare Curran is out to capture Benson- Pope’s seat for Labour. She’s a vile little PR hack who is seeking to portray National as enemies of the people. As a result, Dr Conway Powell, a centrist scientist standing for National is worth a vote to try to keep her out of Parliament.
East Coast - none of them
Anne Tolley took this from Labour last time, but Anne Tolley has a problem. She likes censorship. Now while I agree with her concerns about child pornography, she drafted a (defeated) bill that would have banned any material that “deal with” sexual conduct by young people. It would have banned a vast range of novels, films and indeed information leaflets.
Drafting kneejerk bills about laws you know little about isn’t encouraging. Moana Mackey? Well she is leftwing, she likes unions, compulsory Maori language and bleats on about the 1990s being a horrible time. The bright side is she is a scientist and supports allowing genetic engineering on a case by case basis. Judy Turner from United Future doesn’t deserve your vote either, and Catherine Delahunty is on the far left of the Greens. Advice? You don’t want to be associated with any of these control freaks. Don’t bother.
East Coast Bays - Elah Zamora - Libertarianz
Murray McCully is a shoo in, so vote for Elah Zamora of Libertarianz and know you’re voting for someone who is hard working and a determined supporter of freedom. The Labour candidate here is especially awful, so don’t even think about her if you hate McCully. Zamora is the moral choice.
Epsom - Rodney Hide - ACT
Richard Worth tried to paint Rodney Hide as being pro drug liberalisation, as if it were a bad thing. Rodney has been a good MP. Richard Worth is so awful I’d like Rodney to remain MP for Epsom. He is one of the better MPs in Parliament.
Hamilton East - David Bennett- National
National’s David Bennett took this from Dianne Yates, which was good although the Nat’s website lies about his age. His maiden speech talked about less welfare, more personal responsibility and tax cuts. Give him a chance and secure this seat from the awful Sue Moroney.
Hamilton West - Tim Wikiriwhi - Libertarianz
Labour’s Martin Gallagher could well face serious defeat here, BUT the National candidate – Tim Macindoe leads Arts Waikato, which seeks taxpayer money from Creative NZ and from local authorities. So he likes big government, so not really much point switching men but not philosophies. Vote for a man who has turned his life around, and who is passionate about what he does, and works very hard – Vote Tim Wikiriwhi, Libertarianz, Parliament wont know what’s hit it.
Hauraki-Waikato - Nanaia Mahuta - Labour
It’s a two horse race here, Nanaia Mahuta against Angeline Greensill. Greensill is seriously Marxist, so vote for Princess Mahuta. It also reduces the Maori Party overhang.
Helensville - Peter Osborne - Libertarianz
John Key doesn’t need your vote, he is in on the list and the awful Darien Fenton from Labour would be worse. Vote for Peter Osborne of Libertarianz. He’ll work hard calling National list MP John Key to account, without backtracking on his principles
Hunua - Bruce Whitehead - Libertarianz
The awful patronizing prick Paul Hutchison (I am speaking from experience here) will think he has this in the bag. He so doesn’t deserve it. Jordan Carter hasn’t a hope of Cubanisation of this seat, but Sir Roger Douglas does add some colour. However, Bruce Whitehead from Libertarianz deserves you vote. He says “money taken from you (via tax) to fund someone else's "great idea" without your permission is theft”, Sir Roger for what he’s worth would never say that. However he is a strong second choice, better than Hutchison.
Hutt South - Phil Howison - Libertarianz
Trevor Mallard doesn’t need your vote here. Paul Quinn of National negotiates Treaty settlements. Now I know both the ACT and Libz candidates here. Lindsay Mitchell is well deserving, but the young and very smart Phil Howison gets a hard time from most of the other candidates here and deserves your vote. He’s come through the state education system and survived to be spokesman on education. Give Phil Howison your electorate vote, after all Mallard will win anyway.
Ikaroa-Rawhiti - Parekura Horomia - Labour
Three in this race, the Greens aren’t worth considering, so it is Derek Fox vs Parekura. Fox is a long standing leftie who while wily and smart would also increase the overhang of the Maori Party. Hold your nose and vote for the big man Parekura Horomia – he will be in anyway on the list, but Fox doesn’t deserve to enter Parliament.
Ilam - Brian Davidson - ACT
Gerry Brownlee will slide into this easily, and Labour’s Sam Yau is too nice a guy to elect into Parliament. Brian Davidson for ACT doesn’t want to be an MP and says “He has been motivated to stand for the ACT Party in the Ilam Electorate by the propensity of this Labour Party to tell us how to run our lives and watch over us in an over regulated society which is strangling the enterprise and vision of this wonderful country”. Shrink Brownlee’s majority by giving Brian your electorate vote.
Invercargill - Shane Pleasance - Libertarianz
Eric Roy should manage to keep Lesley Soper out of Parliament (she’s just another braindead unionist), and Roy is just one of the mediocre middle ground of National. So give Shane Pleasance your electorate vote, he’s the Libertarianz candidate, Director of the Southland Chamber of Commerce and he believes in Invercargill, freedom and personal responsibility.
Kaikoura - Colin King - National
National’s Colin King is comfortable here against Labour’s nutty Brian McNamara, and he isn’t bad enough to vote against. I don’t know enough about ACT’s Dave Tattersfield to give him the nod, so make your own pick. I’d pick King, because Labour needs a hammering and it is nice to discourage a leftwing Labour candidate.
Mana - Richard Goode - Libertarianz
Winnie Laban is in under the list anyway, and the awful “Pakeha owe Maori loads” public sector consultant Hekia Parata of National is simply vile - from personal experience. Richard Goode of Libertarianz is mild mannered and one of the most rational speakers on liberalising drug laws in New Zealand today. Vote for Goode.
Mangere - Sua Sio - Labour
This is a race between the awful Philip Field, and Labour’s Sua Sio. National has Mita Harris, who works for DOC and has a past in Treaty claims. ACT has Michael Tabachnik, a university student. Look, Field would create a overhang if he won. So grin and bear it, vote for Sua Sio, because strategically this IS moderately important. Keep Field out.
Manukau East - Kanwal Bakshi - National
Ross Robertson is one of the Labour MPs I dislike least, and he isn’t on the party list which means if he wins, it helps keep the likes of Judith Tizard out of Parliament. However, he is pretty much guaranteed to get elected. Kanwal Bakshi of National is a businessman who set up a voluntary organization to help teenagers. You can’t go wrong voting for this man.
Manurewa - Cam Calder - National
I’m not so generous to George Hawkins. He was a hopeless Police Minister, and while he is on the right side of the Labour Party, and his victory also denies Labour one of its list members, this man isn’t exactly a stunning talent. Dr Cam Calder is National’s candidate and he is no libertarian, but seems decent enough. So take your choice. The ACT candidate doesn’t even have a profile on the ACT website. Hawkins or Calder hmmm.
Maungakiekie - Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga - National
The vile Carol Beaumont of Labour is vying for this seat. She’s a unionist and thinks Labour has benefited democracy. Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga is National’s candidate, he seems to have done well in business and in community work, so you can vote for him positively to keep the Marxist Beaumont out of Parliament.
Mount Albert - Ravi Musuku - National
Clarkistan means you want to feel positive about who to vote for. Sadly it’s not great here. The ACT candidate has no profile on the ACT website. National’s Ravi Musuku is a Methodist pastor, who is a mechanical engineer, not the party’s best. I’d probably give Musuku the tick, only because Clark is so so much worse, and he will come second.
Mount Roskill - Phil Goff - Labour
Phil Goff or Jackie Blue, hmmm there’s a choice. Goff could be Labour’s next leader, he’s one of the few left who could bring it back to the centre, but think how far he has slipped. Blue is in on the list, so she doesn’t need your vote. ACT’s Shawn Tan hasn’t given me enough reason to support him. I want more than that. Don’t feel bad about ticking Goff because he’s the most Rogernomic part of Labour left, but if you can’t then ticking Blue or Tan.
Napier - Chris Tremain - National
Chris Tremain is the successful businessman who is now the local MP, a Nat. The apologist for vile criminals, Russell Fairbrother is standing for Labour and it is too important to keep that man out of Parliament. He isn’t on the list, so keep him out. Vote for Tremain to keep Fairbrother out.
Nelson - Maryan Street - Labour
Maryan Street is one of Labour’s best and smartest candidates. Yes she is part of the Clark government through and through, but she isn’t Nick Smith. Nick Smith is the most loathsome of National MPs, a little control freak, who doesn’t believe in private property rights, who embraces the RMA. So vote Street, because for all she is, she is better than Smith.
New Lynn - Tim Groser - National
Local MP Silent T is a vile nasty character, whose intelligence belies a cold instinct to love power and step on those who get in his way. National’s Tim Groser is a solid supporter of free trade and damnit we need that. Vote for Groser to give Silent T a kick where it hurts and to support one of the better Nat MPs.
New Plymouth - Mike Webber - Libertarianz
Harry Duynhoven is probably a shoo in here too, for some reason this town’s just wild about Harry. Mike Webber of Libertarianz is good at giving the bastards heaps, he’s a feisty chap and deserving of your vote.
North Shore - Michael Murphy - Libertarianz
Wayne Mapp will win this, so you’re safe giving the good natured, hard working and far more entertaining Michael Murphy of Libertarianz your vote. He’s President of Takapuna RSA and done more to serve his country than the others combined.
Northcote - Peter Linton - Libertarianz
Dr Jonathan Coleman is the Nat MP. He’s a clever chap but at 26 on the list he’s in anyway. Pick Peter Linton of Libertarianz. He’ll stir them up and be a strong advocate for your self defence and your right to decide on your health care and education.
Northland - Alan Wood - ACT
Hone Carter’s seat of course, so you can vote elsewhere happily. Blair suggested Shane Jones of Labour. ACT’s Alan Wood is a lemongrower. I have no other reason to vote for him, but it’s better than Hone or Jones, so give Alan Wood your tick.
Ohariu - Katrina Shanks - National
Ahh yes a very important seat. It’s simple. Dunne has to go. This man has voted to keep Labour in power for two terms and to grow bureaucracy. Katrina Shanks is National’s candidate. Charles Chauvel is a Clark lackey and National could do with more clever women. Vote Shanks to remove Labour’s right hand man.
Otaki - Peter McCaffrey - ACT
Darren Hughes will lose this seat, but Nathan Guy is into Transmission Gully, his maiden speech used the word “free” once and he talked favourably about how important Nandor’s “Waste Minimisation Bill” is. You can’t seriously vote for this guy, beyond how he apparently is good looking says Cactus Kate. Peter McCaffrey of ACT leads ACT on Campus Wellington, which is worth supporting. Give him the tick.
Pakuranga - Maurice Williamson - National
Maurice Williamson’s seat. Maurice is one of National’s better MPs, being an opponent of the awful move to the left of English in 2002, and supporting Brash in 2005. Key has stomped on Maurice, so that’s enough reason to give Maurice the benefit of the doubt.
Palmerston North - Malcolm Plimmer - National
Labour candidate Iain Lees-Galloway is trying to succeed Steve Maharey, and he is worse. This man is just vile, being anti-individualism and a unionist. Vote to keep him out, Malcolm Plimmer of National is uninspiring, but this is about keeping Lees-Galloway out of this seat. Turn Palmy blue.
Papakura - Judith Collins- National
Dave Hereora is one of Labour’s under performers, give Judith Collins the tick in the hope she might be a future National leader. Seriously, there isn’t really anyone else with the capability to succeed Key.
Port Hills - Geoff Russell - ACT
Dyson is awful, and Social Credit nutbar Terry Heffernan is worse. Dyson is in on the list anyway, so voting for her to keep Heffernan out makes sense. If you can’t stand that it is Geoff Russell of ACT who might give you an out, but seriously Heffernan stood for Social Credit, the Alliance and NZ First, umpteen times and failed. The Nats need to be punished for adopting this fool.
Rangitata - Jo Goodhew - National
Jo Goodhew is the Nat MP. There is no good reason to vote against her, she described herself in her maiden speech as one who “juggle work and family, who scorn political correctness, who value self-reliance and believe that working hard should bring personal benefits, not increased taxation”. Not great, but not bad, so give her a tick.
Rangitikei - Jean Thompson Church - ACT
Simon Power insurmountable fortress. You might tick Steve Gibson, an independent, because he’s a cop who cut crime in Taihape, but he also issued over 100 speeding tickets in one day. Jills Angus Burney had no profile on the Labour website, showing she’s not interested. Jean Thompson Church is ACT’s candidate, and she is quite elderly. Let her get her deposit back and give her a tick, because Power will get in regardless.
Rimutaka - Nigel Kearney - ACT
Now Swain is off with his young new bride, it is a bit more wide open. Richard Whiteside is the National candidate (the Labour one – Chris Hipkins is far too leftwing to endorse) and is a lot like John Key in that he doesn’t really say anything. ACT’s Nigel Kearney has a blog and expresses views that aren’t far removed from my own. So give him the tick, don’t worry – Ron Mark wont win here.
Rodney - Beryl Good - ACT
Lockwood Smith is one of the most disappointing of National’s MPs. He showed his testicles were inert against teachers’ unions in the early 1990s. He deserves to be out, but Conor Roberts – a student unionist, has no hope of doing this. Vote Beryl Good for ACT as she has more interest in freedom than Lockwood, and you wont feel so dirty voting for her.
Rongotai - Mitch Lees - Libertarianz
You have the smart and apparently good looking Mitch Lees of Libertarianz to vote for. He’s smarter and better looking than the rest, but the main reason you want to vote for him is to beat Gordon Copeland and Russel Norman. Annette King is hardly threatened by Chris Finlayson, although he is one of the better Nat candidates.
Rotorua - Fred Stevens - Libertarianz
Steve Chadwick is finished, but Todd McClay is from that National family. So really you’d feel better voting for Fred Stevens of Libertarianz, at least so he can beat the nutty RAM candidate.
Selwyn - Amy Adams - National
Amy Adams of National will almost certainly pick this one up, and she’s alright, better than Labour’s David Coates. Give her a tick, the Nats need more intelligent women in their caucus.
Tamaki - Allan Peachey - National
Allan Peachey is a sensible National MP who will win and who there isn’t really good enough reason to vote against. Jo Bartley of Labour was invisible when I searched for her, so give Allan your vote.
Tamaki-Makaurau - Pita Sharples - Maori Party
Louisa Wall isn’t good enough against Pita Sharples, who for all that is wrong with him is better than she is. He’s by far the best of the Maori Party caucus so deserves to win again.
Taranaki-King Country - Bill Izard - ACT
Shane Ardern, yawn. Yep, what a star. Bill Izard of ACT seems invisible too. The Labour candidate is invisible as well. I’d probably tick Izard given Ardern nearly was beaten by Owen Jennings, and the electorate that voted Jim Bolger in incessantly needs a shake up.
Taupo - Louise Upston - National
is a Labour seat likely to go to the Nats. Voting Louise Upston would help seal the deal to get rid of Mark Burton who is too low down the Labour list to remain.
Tauranga - Simon Bridges - National
You know what you have to do. Vote Simon Bridges National to put your nail in the coffin for Winston’s political career. Even excluding that he aint half bad.
Te Atatu - Tau Henare - National
Chris Carter will remain in on the list. Tau Henare will make things more interesting, and I can’t tick an ACT candidate who is law and order obsessed. The main value in Henare is he will shake up the boring Nat caucus.
Te Tai Hauauru - Errol Mason - Labour
You can’t vote for Tariana Turia, she’s mad as can be. Tick Errol Mason, he’ll help keep Judith Tizard out as he is well down the Labour list.
Te Tai Tokerau - Peter Tashkoff - ACT
The loathsome Marxist Hone Harawira doesn’t deserve your vote, Peter Tashkoff of ACT does, if only to show that the Maori seats aren’t a two horse race.
Te Tai Tonga - Mahara Okeroa - Labour
Mahara Okeroa will keep the Maori party away from overhang. There is no other reason to vote for him.
Tukituki - Craig Foss - National
Yes well Craig Foss is the Nat MP, Rick Barker was the Labour MP and to be fair to Foss he’s been fighting hard on the HBDHB issues with the government. The ACT candidate Duncan Lennox founded a Christian school, which of course is enough of a reason for an objectivist to say – tick Foss.
Waiariki - Mita Ririnui - Labour
Mita Ririnui will keep the Maori party away from overhang. Again, no other reason to vote for him.
Waikato - Mark Davies - ACT
Lindsay Tisch hasn’t been a star, and Jacinda Ardern the young London based Labour candidate is standing. She’ll be in on the list, so don’t give her a second thought. Mark Davies of ACT is saying the right things, so give him a tick.
Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove - Labour
Keeping Clayton Cosgrove around will annoy the Labour left and Kate Wilkinson of National is already a list MP. So why not tick Clayton Cosgrove, he was a Mike Moore acolyte and must be a moderating influence.
Wairarapa - Richard McGrath - Libertarianz
Vote for NZ’s most freedom loving GP – Dr Richard McGrath for Libertarianz. He’s a fine man, and given the Nat’s John Hayes will win, you don’t want someone called Amy Tubman from the Alliance to beat him now do you?
Waitakere - Paula Bennett - National
Paula Bennett of National needs your vote to try to unseat the Marxist Lynne Pillay.
Waitaki - David Parker - Labour
Yes, take Blair’s advice, swallow a hard drink and vote David Parker, the Labour candidate. Jacqui Dean is the current MP and an enemy of freedom, voting against her is like voting against Jim Anderton. Her website says “Jacqui thrives on hitting the road”, make her hit it with her fist on all fours in disappointment. Parker is in anyway on the list, so hold your nose and vote Parker.
Wellington Central - Bernard Darnton - Libertarianz
Now I know it is wide open, and you might just think Stephen Franks is worth a shot, but the man is no libertarian. He is intelligent and articulate, but did he try to take Helen Clark to court for breaking the law? No – Bernard Darnton - Libertarianz Leader did – he deserves your vote here for fighting for the rule of law and liberal democracy. Franks doesn’t deserve credit for moving from ACT to National, and National doesn’t value him enough to put him high up the list – so vote for freedom, vote for Darnton.
West Coast-Tasman - Damien O'Connor - Labour
Chris Auchinvole is the Nat list MP standing against Damien O’Connor. He is ok, but there is a good reason for voting for O’Connor. He will take a list position from someone else who is bound to be worse. O’Connor is on the Labour right and doesn’t pander to political correctness. So hold your nose and vote for him. It’s not that there is anything wrong with Auchinvole, but this is about keeping the rump Labour party from being the mad unionist cabal it looks like being.
Whanganui - Alan Davidson - ACT
Chester Borrows is the Nat MP here, he thinks all children are ours and like Sue Bradford says “I want to live in a country that claims all children as their own and accepts the glory and the responsibility of that”. The Labour candidate isn’t worth ticking, the ACT candidate Alan Davidson wont win but his profile does talk about not telling people how to run their lives. You can tick that.
Whangarei - Helen Hughes - Libertarianz
Phil Heatley is another shoo in here, so you can safely vote for someone who does passionately believe in individual freedom. Vote Helen Hughes for Libertarianz, with pride. She’s more charismatic and better looking than Heatley any day.
Wigram - Ben Morgan - Libertarianz
Jim Anderton isn’t under any serious threat here, because the vote against him is split two ways. ex. United Future MP, now Nat Marc Alexander doesn’t deserve your vote, as he isn’t really a believer in individual freedom. The Labour candidate Erin Ebbor-Gillespie is much worse than Jim Anderton, even though voting for her would probably increase the chance of Labour being defeated (as she’d replace a list MP, and ousting Anderton would shrink the left vote). Ben Morgan of Libertarianz stands for freedom, and so it’s time people in Anderton’s seat stood up for it too.
National wont get 50% of the vote
It didn't happen for decades under First Past the Post, Muldoon got 47.6% in 1975. With ACT, United Future and even NZ First and Libertarianz, part of National's core support will be elsewhere.
So the questions become this:
Can Labour cobble together the Greens and the Maori Party to govern?
Or will National need ACT, the Maori Party and Peter Dunne altogether?
The answer could be how well Labour does in the Maori seats - you see the more Maori seats Labour wins, the better it is for National. An electorate seat win by Labour is a swap for a list seat - no net gain or loss. However an electorate seat win by the Maori Party (assuming party vote remains low) increases the size of Parliament and the threshold needed to form a government.
So how can overhang best benefit the left, and how can it benefit the right?
For the left it should want to have electorate MPs overhanging that are on its side. That means a party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. It also means a party vote for Jim Anderton's Progressives is a wasted vote. You want Jim's seat to be an overhang, along with the Maori Party ones. The Greens have no chance in any electorate so as long as they get 5% the left should be happy, regardless of whether it is bled off Labour or not. However, the left needs the Greens to reach 5%, otherwise it is over. NZ First breaking 5% would help the left immensely too.
For the right, it needs the same. Let's be clear, that means a vote for United Future is a wasted vote. Peter Dunne as an overhang would be good for National. ACT clearly has enough party votes to not overhang, even if it picks up Botany. More clearly it needs NZ First to not reach 5%. The Greens missing 5% is also important. However it is better for the Maori seats to go Labour and for Maori to vote for the Maori Party, to avoid THAT overhang.
However, if National is willing to do a deal with the Maori Party that it is willing to do - which may be questionable, then it is another story.
Me? Well I'll tell you later how I think you should all vote in every electorate.
So the questions become this:
Can Labour cobble together the Greens and the Maori Party to govern?
Or will National need ACT, the Maori Party and Peter Dunne altogether?
The answer could be how well Labour does in the Maori seats - you see the more Maori seats Labour wins, the better it is for National. An electorate seat win by Labour is a swap for a list seat - no net gain or loss. However an electorate seat win by the Maori Party (assuming party vote remains low) increases the size of Parliament and the threshold needed to form a government.
So how can overhang best benefit the left, and how can it benefit the right?
For the left it should want to have electorate MPs overhanging that are on its side. That means a party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. It also means a party vote for Jim Anderton's Progressives is a wasted vote. You want Jim's seat to be an overhang, along with the Maori Party ones. The Greens have no chance in any electorate so as long as they get 5% the left should be happy, regardless of whether it is bled off Labour or not. However, the left needs the Greens to reach 5%, otherwise it is over. NZ First breaking 5% would help the left immensely too.
For the right, it needs the same. Let's be clear, that means a vote for United Future is a wasted vote. Peter Dunne as an overhang would be good for National. ACT clearly has enough party votes to not overhang, even if it picks up Botany. More clearly it needs NZ First to not reach 5%. The Greens missing 5% is also important. However it is better for the Maori seats to go Labour and for Maori to vote for the Maori Party, to avoid THAT overhang.
However, if National is willing to do a deal with the Maori Party that it is willing to do - which may be questionable, then it is another story.
Me? Well I'll tell you later how I think you should all vote in every electorate.
USA - it IS the man in the mirror
So a majority of those who voted want change.
Really?
Why do you think that one man, with a lot of power, is going to make that change? You do not live in North Korea, where everyone is taught they owe everything to one man and his son. You live in a country where life is what YOU make it.
If you want to change your community, you do something about it. Use YOUR money, your time, why do you think the Federal Government would be more effective?
If you want everyone to have health care, what are YOU doing about it? Why don't you sponsor another family to have health insurance, or is it better for the Federal Government to force you to do it?
If you want to be better off, what are YOU doing about it? Retraining? Are you looking for new opportunities?
Is the Federal Government in your way, or does it help you? Most of think it will help you, most of you probably didn't think how in order for it to give, it must take away.
So as much as I am loathe to quote Michael Jackson it IS about the man (and woman) in the mirror.
If you're worried about global warming, drive less, use less electricity, fly less. You can choose to do that. If you're worried about people less fortunate than yourself, give them money, work for a charity, do something direct - voting is possibly the most useless thing you can do.
The Federal Government can change a lot - it can spend more of your money, it can withdraw from the world, it can cease to give a damn about what happens in other countries. However if you want your life to change, it's up to you - if you spend your life worshipping the idea that someone else is your saviour, then don't be surprised when nothing changes the way you want it. Because you handed him the power to change.
Really?
Why do you think that one man, with a lot of power, is going to make that change? You do not live in North Korea, where everyone is taught they owe everything to one man and his son. You live in a country where life is what YOU make it.
If you want to change your community, you do something about it. Use YOUR money, your time, why do you think the Federal Government would be more effective?
If you want everyone to have health care, what are YOU doing about it? Why don't you sponsor another family to have health insurance, or is it better for the Federal Government to force you to do it?
If you want to be better off, what are YOU doing about it? Retraining? Are you looking for new opportunities?
Is the Federal Government in your way, or does it help you? Most of think it will help you, most of you probably didn't think how in order for it to give, it must take away.
So as much as I am loathe to quote Michael Jackson it IS about the man (and woman) in the mirror.
If you're worried about global warming, drive less, use less electricity, fly less. You can choose to do that. If you're worried about people less fortunate than yourself, give them money, work for a charity, do something direct - voting is possibly the most useless thing you can do.
The Federal Government can change a lot - it can spend more of your money, it can withdraw from the world, it can cease to give a damn about what happens in other countries. However if you want your life to change, it's up to you - if you spend your life worshipping the idea that someone else is your saviour, then don't be surprised when nothing changes the way you want it. Because you handed him the power to change.
05 November 2008
Castro on US elections
Castro writes in the official Cuban state newspaper (there is no other kind) Granma about how he prefers Obama.
Interesting to wonder why he thinks it is ok for Americans to get to choose their President, but he has always denied Cubans that same right.
Interesting to wonder why he thinks it is ok for Americans to get to choose their President, but he has always denied Cubans that same right.
Obama's victory speech
His groupies in rapture, he talked of family, thanked McCain for his concession. He talked of the campaign made of millions who helped him get elected. It is "their victory".
He talked of a "planet in peril"
He talks of harnessing new energy, building new schools, alliances to repair.
"We will get there" (wherever that is).
The government can't solve every problem
Need a new spirit of service and sacrifice.
Republican Party believed in individual liberty, values we all share.
New dawn of American leadership is at hand.
Those who seek peace and security we support you.
Those who seek to tear down the world we will defeat you.
Our Union can be perfected.
Unyielding hope.
It all sounded nice, he sounds inspiring.
However, what does it really mean?
"Hi, I'm from the government and I'm here to help".
and people believe it.
He talked of a "planet in peril"
He talks of harnessing new energy, building new schools, alliances to repair.
"We will get there" (wherever that is).
The government can't solve every problem
Need a new spirit of service and sacrifice.
Republican Party believed in individual liberty, values we all share.
New dawn of American leadership is at hand.
Those who seek peace and security we support you.
Those who seek to tear down the world we will defeat you.
Our Union can be perfected.
Unyielding hope.
It all sounded nice, he sounds inspiring.
However, what does it really mean?
"Hi, I'm from the government and I'm here to help".
and people believe it.
Other US results
Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr came fourth, with 347,161 votes at 0438 GMT
Ralph Nader third with 421,978 votes.
Other states?
Arizona - McCain 10 electoral votes
South Dakota - McCain 3 electoral votes
Nebraska - proportional McCain 3, Obama 2
Colorado - Obama 9 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Florida - Obama 27 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Nevada - Obama 5 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Hawaii - Obama 4 electoral votes
338 Obama to 155 McCain
A convincing win for Obama.
Ballot measures:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage - 56% yes (74% counted)
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants - 60% no (74% counted)
Colorado - Human life from moment of conception - 74% no (37% counted)
Maryland - Allow video lottery - 59% yes (67% counted)
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax - 69% no (79% counted)
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana - 63% yes (50% counted)
Nebraska - End affirmative action - 57% yes (55% counted)
Ralph Nader third with 421,978 votes.
Other states?
Arizona - McCain 10 electoral votes
South Dakota - McCain 3 electoral votes
Nebraska - proportional McCain 3, Obama 2
Colorado - Obama 9 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Florida - Obama 27 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Nevada - Obama 5 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Hawaii - Obama 4 electoral votes
338 Obama to 155 McCain
A convincing win for Obama.
Ballot measures:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage - 56% yes (74% counted)
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants - 60% no (74% counted)
Colorado - Human life from moment of conception - 74% no (37% counted)
Maryland - Allow video lottery - 59% yes (67% counted)
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax - 69% no (79% counted)
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana - 63% yes (50% counted)
Nebraska - End affirmative action - 57% yes (55% counted)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)