16 February 2007

Borrowing to pay for roads

Now that, in itself, is not a bad thing, as long as there is revenue generated to pay back the loans with interest.
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The problem is that the government is spending all revenue it gets from road users, plus $300 million more over the next five years, on roads and public transport. There is no longer money “diverted” from road taxes onto non-transport spending, so no money to pay back the infrastructure bonds.
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Borrowing to fund transport is common in the private sector, but you have fares and charges to pay for it. Borrowing to fund roads is also common in the private sector, which is why Sydney and Melbourne have had some excellent new highways built in recent years – and those highways are tolled too.
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So a government in the future is going to have to hike up road taxes to pay for this borrowing, or take it from you some other way. An alternative would’ve been to allow Transit to borrow and then toll, taking the risk itself – but funnily enough, most of the major roads the government wants to fund have enough people willing to pay to use it to pay for it.
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That might tell you something…
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There is an alternative, but it is funny that the Greens are now propping up a government embarking on New Zealand's most ambitious road building programme since the early 1970s.

Aviation security hysteria

Fucking security hysteria. Where is the cost/benefit analysis, where is the risk assessment? What is the likelihood of a flight to Niue causing havoc compared to one to Dunedin? Of course, has anyone told security people about how liquids are not the only way to make a bomb? Planes have alcohol on board, and glasses (these can break and be used as weapons) and crockery... there is no end to the risks of flying - and of course it wouldn't take much for half a dozen likely men to simultaneously open a couple of doors midflight.
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Remember when New Zealand had absolutely no domestic air security? It still does, whenever you fly on an Air NZ turboprop plane (i.e. all Air NZ link flights) there is no check as to whether or not you have a machete, caustic soda or something metallic in your underwear - so you see Al Qaeda can plan its attack on the Beehive using an Air NZ ATR-72 - which of course it wont.
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You see, this is because apparently the 6am flight from Wellington to Sydney is a risk, and the Aussies wont let us fly planes there unless we screen them all. Sydney, Perth and Norfolk Island are all the same risk.
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So whether you are flying to LA, Norfolk Island, Adelaide, Papeete, Niue or Osaka, you will face the following:
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"From 31 March, all international air travellers leaving New Zealand will only be able to carry onto an aircraft liquids, gels and aerosols in containers of 100ml or less, and only as many containers as fit into a single resealable plastic bag of one litre volume. Flysmart is designed to inform those travelling overseas how they can comply with the new standards without causing any disruption to their travel plans or to the plans of other passengers. There will be exemptions for medicines, baby food and essential dietary supplies, but these items will be subject to additional checking by security staff".
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Some little anally retentive wanker thought that up didn't he? "one litre volume" like some self righteous little wannabe school prefect who likes telling people what to do, who enjoys confiscating some elderly woman's perfume because she didn't know any better and goes off at lunchtime bragging about the people he has harassed before going to the loo to have a wank of his pencil dick. Security and safety fascists must be the worst parents ever, with either the most rebellious or most militaristic kids, and with a secret BDSM fetish demanding that they are in turn told what to do by someone else.
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Now I know the EU and US have this, but there are no non-stop flights from NZ to Europe, and only flights to Honolulu, LA and San Francisco to the US - all of which already have secondary security at Auckland airport, so it isn't Europe and the US. The hysteria is because Australia is doing the same.
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This is completely disastrous for all sorts of reasons. It will mean:
- No deodorant for many travellers;
- Dehydration (so damned well demand water from airlines, ask flight attendant for water more often - damn them if they wont respond to security mania). I used to buy a large bottle of water to carry on board flights between NZ and Europe to cover what is around 30 hours of travelling, now you'll have to deal with whatever is available airside at the terminal - which wont be cheap;
- Medications without prescriptions. So if you have a cold before you fly, nothing. If you are an asthmatic, you probably don't keep prescriptions with your Ventolin.
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Presumably efforts to negotiate with Australia an exemption for New Zealand have failed miserably (I hope there have been efforts).
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Of course this will be a windfall for airside shopping in all international airports - not so bad in Auckland, rather dire in Wellington and Christchurch and disastrous in the likes of Hamilton and Palmerston North. So airport companies have NO incentives to oppose this. Neither with no frills airlines like Jetstar and Freedom Air, who sell you food on board. Of course it makes it even more advantageous to fly first, business and premium economy classes where it is easy to get more to drink (and especially as airlines make most of their revenue from these).
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In typical New Labour style, the campaign has a "kool" catchy name "Flysmart". This is so it seems like new restrictions on your travel are GOOD for you, or you could call it "Slyfart" instead.
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Well I am going to have to:
- Spend money airside on things I can buy landside cheaper ande better;
- Waste time taking little plastic bags to carry objects more inert than many other things on planes, and waste time thinking about it;
- Stand in queues behind people who don't know any better.
I wish people would fly smart, I wish they would do the following things:
- Fill out your frigging departure car/arrival card before entering the queue;
- Get your ticket/passport out before you checkin, and have your boarding pass ready for the gate and when you get on the plane, idiots;
- Don't take children under the age of 8, they are a nuisance and it is beyond me why it is cheaper for them to fly than adults, they take up the same space, use the toilet as often, need their own meals and get more cabin attendant attention;
- Don't hang around the gate waiting to board - you don't board first, I do, along with all the other frequent flyers who keep the airline business afloat;
- Don't rush up to get out of the plane the moment the seatbelt sign is off, the gangway/steps aren't ready yet, the plane isn't going to leave the airport with you on board and don't push forward if you sit in the back, you don't leave first, I do, along with all the other frequent flyers... because you see, our luggage comes off first too. You can leave first when you pay for the privilege of sitting up front or become Prime Minister;
- Don't keep coins in your pockets, wear large metal jewellery etc before security - you slow it up for everyone else you fool;
- Don't negotiate for an upgrade, you will fail. Upgrades are granted spontaneously or to those who pay for them through points/frequent flyer status etc;
- Turn your cellphone off before you get on board, keep it off until you leave. It has little to do with safety, but you can wait less than half an hour before talking. Please stare disapprovingly at anyone doing this too, it ought to be socially unacceptable;
- Seriously obese people should lose weight, sit in a higher class or buy two seats - sorry you're not entitled to both armrests and other people's sitting space;
- don't stand to pee unless you're very very good at it (in other words competent) and clean up afterwards if you ignore it;
- Don't carry so much luggage that you don't know what to do with it at your seat, what were you planning on doing, camping out?
- Don't sneeze or cough without fully covering your mouth and nose.
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There is NO good reason for this to be universal (saving money is not a reason, what value time and convenience and freedom? We could all save money if the government approved all our private spending according to whether it was good for us). There does NOT need to be insane security flying to the Pacific Islands, Asia or South America - and given the majority of people flying to Europe fly through Asia, at least give them 12 or so hours without this nonsense on their final leg to Europe. You see I can fly Hong Kong or Singapore to Auckland with my water but not the other way.
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Security is important, but the least secure place in New Zealand is not travelling on a Boeing 737 flying to Norfolk Island - it is the streets and houses in certain parts of the country. People involved with security will always err on the side of restricting freedom - like the Police. Every single proposal I ever read from the Police involved having more powers, more laws and more ability to intervene in peoples' lives - for their own good.
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It would be nice if the government had said it reluctantly has decided to proceed with this for flights to Australia only, but will seek an annual review of the security arrangements with Australia and will not unnecessarily inconvenience or delay travellers to other destinations (except the US) when there is no reason to do so.
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However, that's too hard. By the way, I wonder if this security also applies to Ministers and to Broomsticks 1 and 2 when they fly overseas to any destination? I wonder how long it is before all cutlery are banned on board, belts too, alcohol, glasses, or indeed you're never allowed to leave your seat unless accompanied to the toilet by a flight attendant (!). After all, it's for your own good!
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However most of you are such sheeple, you'll just baaah and say "musn't grumble". You see your fear about security catching flights to Australia makes me laugh, when I can catch a main line train in the UK into any major London station with absolutely no security checks whatsoever - into Kings Cross, Euston, Victoria, Paddington, Liverpool Street. I can catch the tube without such checks.... so how many NZ-Singapore flights have been targeted by terrorists compared to the tube? Go on.... explain that away petty NZ security advisors please?

13 February 2007

Surrendering to blackmail

According to the Daily Telegraph a deal has been struck whereby North Korea will shut down its main nuclear reactor within 60 days and then irreversibly disable it - in exchange for this, the regime will get 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and then 950,000 tons of aid. It appears the trade sanctions on luxury goods (and not least Japan's courageous termination of all financial transfers and trade between the countries) has hurt.
Well that will keep Kim Jong Il and his murderous cronies cozy wont it? 200,000 people in the political prison system including children related to political prisoners. Children doesn't mean 17 year olds, it means ALL children. It tests chemical weapons on prisoners. You might want to read Aquariums of Pyongyang for more about this.
So it's nice to help prop up this regime
Hopefully it will be verifiable, hopefully North Korea will allow spontaneous unscheduled inspections, hopefully it will allow inspections of all of its suspected facilities.
It wont. Official access into North Korea comes through 2 flights a week from Beijing, the occasional flight from Russia and a daily train from Beijing, and presumably the ferries from Japan will resume shortly. In a totalitarian police state you can hardly do anything spontaneous.
Unless it can be verified, this deal is nothing more than a way to prop up a slave state, a slave state that gets little criticism or protests from those who claim to give a damn about human rights.

Who owns YOUR life?

The book launched by Lindsay Perigo is timely, given the case of Kelly Taylor of Bristol in the UK. This case saddens and enrages me. Quite simply, how fucking DARE anyone of you tell this woman that she should endure what she must go through, when she is sane and certain that she wants her own suffering to end. The so called compassion showed by those opposing this is completely empty, and frankly NO ONE has the right to say she should not end her life voluntarily.
You see, Kelly Taylor has the heart and lung condition Eisenmenger's syndrome, and the spinal condition Klippel-Feil syndrome. She is in constant pain because doctors have been unable to find a combination of drugs suitable given her allergies. Her condition is terminal and degenerative, she wants to die with a high dose of morphine. Let her. Her life is NOT yours, you do not experience her suffering, and should not prolong it by interfering.
She has already tried to starve herself to death, but was in some much pain she stopped.
She has said:
“I have made the decision because enough is enough. I don’t want to suffer any more ...My consultant has told me that he does not expect me to live for another year. In that time I will deteriorate and that deterioration will become quite undignified. I want to avoid that.”
"I don't want to be looked after any more. I want to assert my own independence....I don't really understand why I'm here. I go from day to day just making it through the day. I don't want to be here."
She is too frail to fly easily and wants to die at home, so refuses to attempt to travel to a more enlightened jurisdiction like Switzerland. "I am in constant pain, suffer from breathlessness and have bed sores. I do not want to have to leave the UK in order to die".
Hear hear.
Try defending it, try worming your way out of allowing this sane adult woman to end her own suffering, try defending why YOU know best for her, and if you think you do - try arguing why I can't know best for you about any aspect of your life? After all, if you can't decide when and how to end your own life -do you really own your life and your body? If not, who does and why are they better equipped to know what is best for you? Who knows best for them?
Don't mention God - religion isn't compulsory - let your ghost worshipping determine your own life, not anyone elses.

Sorting out sprawl

PC and Tom Beard have been engaging in an interesting debate about sprawl and land use regulation. Interesting to me because I have been on both sides of the debate in my career, and now I largely share PC's view.

Tom’s view is that people are not very good at making decisions about things that have long term consequences, which of course raises the question as to whether those with his perspective are any better.

Private sector provision of infrastructure for greenfields developments already exists, it happens for telecommunications and electricity. If water was operated commercially (as it is in Auckland), that can be dealt with also. Roads for these developments are also already paid for. The key question is paying for the extra demand on existing infrastructure. That should be a matter between the utility provider and the property owner.

Tom’s comment that “More homes further away means more cars coming into the city, which means more space taken up by motorways, "bypasses" and carparks, thus impacting on the quality of life of those who've chosen to live close to the city.”

Well hold on. If highways were privatised, these motorways wouldn’t be collectively funded by all motorists, but paid for by those using them. Such tolls would limit sprawl and also make public transport more competitive. In addition, any savvy operator of toll roads would charge a premium at peak times to reduce congestion and make more money – with less congestion, and motorists paying the true costs of road expansion and use at peak times, there will be a limit to what Tom is concerned about. By contrast, almost all of the US has taxpayer (i.e. not road user) subsidised highways which have effectively subsidised motoring to many suburbs. He might look here as to why railways and bus companies (the latter mostly run by local authorities with little interest in service quality) found this so hard to compete with.

Tom also claims that in Wellington, the well off use public transport as much as or more than those on lower incomes. He is correct and there is a very good reason for that. The higher income jobs are concentrated in downtown Wellington and the public transport system was designed so that state servants and council employees could easily get to work. Lower income jobs are in the Hutt, Porirua and the suburbs. It is far more difficult to get to these jobs by public transport, so public transport subsidies in Wellington are about subsidising the middle class and high income earners to get to work in downtown Wellington from their homes in Karori, Khandallah and Kapiti. The Wellington Regional Council trialled subsidising a direct bus from Porirua to Hutt City for commuters, and it was a dismal failure because workers and their jobs were too dispersed for a public transport option to be viable. The target case for mode share in Wellington by the regional council is for public transport to hold its own against growth in total trips for both car and public transport – for commutes. Off peak car traffic continues to grow much faster than public transport, because public transport cannot meet the demand for diverse spontaneous trips with multiple destinations within a reasonable timeframe. Public transport mode share has changed because the costs of motoring have gone up exponentially compared to public transport. The key problem is that too many people want to travel at once, using infrastructure that would remain unused most of the day – like trains and buses. The solution is that all modes should be priced commercially, roads, trains and buses – this can help spread demand more evenly (and raise money to finance more infrastructure if it is financially viable). Note that about two-thirds of Wellington's rail rolling stock sits around depreciating doing nothing for about 20 hours a day, five days a week (24 hours the other two). Efficient? You might argue people do the same with their cars, but the difference is that they pay for that - they are paying for the option of convenience. You pay for the trains whether you use them or not.
Changing the pricing of transport would, in my view, make an enormous difference to how cities function and grow. There are different ways of doing this, but in essence it would involve:

- Replacing fuel taxes and ratepayer funding of roads with tolls that vary according to roads by time and location, so that roads are priced high during congested periods and next to nothing off peak. The money raised would be for maintenance and construction when the construction would generate a return. New roads would be justified financially, not politically (Transmission Gully is the latter), and existing roads would be far better managed. Yes this is congestion charging to put it bluntly, but not as bluntly as Ken Livingstone does it and not to pay for everything but roads.

- The Public Works Act and RMA would be gone, as enablers and inhibitors of transport infrastructure construction. Road building would be easier in some places, harder in others – in cities it might mean more tunnelling.

- Public transport subsidies would cease, and operators would charge what the market could bear. At peak times as tolls would be high, there would be high demand for the alternatives. The road operator would charge for bus stop use (and for bus companies to use roads, including if they wanted to pay for exclusive bus lanes), and may even finance some bus operations if it sees fit. At peak times, it would cost far more to commute than at present, off peak bus and rail companies would charge far less as there would be excess capacity.

- Employers would be allowed to time shift employment, encourage employees to work at home or off site where appropriate in order to reduce transport costs. With transport now charged efficiently, there would be significant incentives to avoid peak tolls/fares.

The result would be less peak time commuting, perhaps less sprawl for those working in congested areas, but with more employment diversifying to more outlying places (where commuting was cheaper/closer to housing). In other words, it may actually deliver what Tom wants – by using economics rather than regulation. It doesn’t talk about underground railways or light rail or any of the other transport fetishes of the left, or indeed big motorways which are the fetish of some on the right – it is about remaining completely neutral and letting users pay for what they use. I happen to be agnostic about transport modes - I used to regularly walk to work (when I could have taken the bus in half the time), I like driving and I like taking some trains. I've also used good bus services, and experienced many bad bus and rail services. You see, I supported the Wellington inner city bypass because it made good sound economic sense, but oppose Transmission Gully because it does the exact opposite.
Tom is right to suggest that there is plenty of potential for different forms of housing, including higher density to be attractive. The fundamental point is whether the market should be skewed by planning restrictions to coerce development to being in that direction - the so called nodes proposed by Auckland planning authorities with the fantasy idea that people would want to live in high rise developments around suburban railway stations. Some people want to live downtown in apartments - good for them - but if you want a house on a quarter acre section why is it anyone else's business, as long as you pay for it and the associated infrastructure?

Imagine that – users pay.