Spain's bailout for dummies

What's gone wrong?  A cluster of Spanish banks loaned money during the credit boom years of low interest rates in the Eurozone to a large number of investors whose investments have now proven to be worth far less than the loans.  Most of this is the property bubble in Spain which has popped, with property values dropping by 30-50% in some places.  The banks are facing insolvency because if they write off the bad loans they will fold.

It is not a sovereign debt crisis of the kind being witnessed in Greece.  In fact Spain's total national public debt as a proportion of GDP is less than Germany's (although it has had a serious budget deficit issue risking escalation of that debt) at 68.5%, although it was predicted to hit 78% at the end of this year.

Whose fault is it?  It takes three to tango this one.  None of these loans would be taken out if people or businesses hadn't borrowed to "invest" in the Spanish property bubble.  Nobody forced them to do this, so they bear responsibility for their own personal tragedy of poor choices and being lumbered with liabilities.  Of course, they wouldn't have received such loans if the banks had been more prudent about their predictions about the property market and had considered the risks of an inflated property bubble.  So the banks bear responsibility for lending money in circumstances that were overly optimistic.  Finally, the European Central Bank sets the interest rates for banks accessing its fiat currency.  As interest rates were set based predominantly on the dominant economic drivers in the Eurozone of Germany and France, this effectively created a line of cheap credit out of nothing at all.   Of course, since the European Central Bank makes money from thin air, it doesn't really bear any consequences of anything, as it is those who own and loan the currency that bear those consequences.

Why should governments get involved?  They shouldn't.  The banks should go bust.  Their shareholders and creditors should bear the losses.  At the most, if there is a deposit insurance scheme, then depositors up to a certain level should be protected, but there is no good reason for governments to do anything other than to have a framework within which bankrupt banks can wind down.   Of course, regional Spanish governments own a majority of the largest bank being bailed out - Bankia - which indicates that it going bankrupt means that those governments lose their "investments".   Naturally, none of them are very keen on this because they want their own decisions to be vindicated.

Why doesn't the Spanish government do it?  It can't afford to do so.  Whilst its relatively new government is eagerly cutting spending (and increasing taxes) to cut the rampant overspending of past governments, it is finding that interests rates on newly issued sovereign debt lie over 6%.   If it was to try to swallow the bankrupt banks it would see its debt as a proportion of GDP slide up by another 9% of GDP bringin it close to 90% (and 100% in 2-3 years' time).  It doesn't want to do that, and claims that Eurozone countries are like a big cozy club that look after one another (although German, Dutch, Austrian, Slovak and Estonian taxpayers might have a wry laugh at how one way that relationship is).

Where is the money coming from for this bailout?  Thin air.  It is part of the slow fiat currency issuing of the Eurozone called the European Financial Stability Fund, which is to become the European Stability Mechanism.   In both cases, they can only lend money to governments, so the Spanish Government will be effectively borrowing from its Eurozone supporters, adding to its public debt, pass on the money to the banks (presumably in the form of capital) and the banks will then pass on that money to the European Central Bank to provide liquidity in the face of their bad debts.  Of course don't think that making money out of thin air and passing it through a merry-go-round has no cost.

Who will pay?  Taxpayers directly in the solvent Eurozone countries (i.e. excluding the PIIGS) and all Euro currency holders indirectly, as they contributed involuntarily to a fund to socialise the losses of the banks.  Spanish taxpayers will be expected to pay too, as they guarantee the repayment of the "credit line", so ultimately will have to pay more unless miraculously the bailed out banks can be sold for more than the bailout funds.  Of course, given Spain's precarious budget deficit, public debt and national economic position, the real risk is that it lays the path for Spain to follow Greece - and so demand more money from Eurozone taxpayers.

Who will win? Creditors of the bailed banks (even if they face major writedowns in their shareholdings).  Owners of Euro debt in Spain.

Who will lose?  Taxpayers across the Eurozone, who collectively will see more of their future earnings diverted to save bad investments.  Ultimately this means the Eurozone economy being dragged down a small notch, again, for many years.  Holders of Euro currency deposits or cash lose as well, because it ultimately contributes to inflation.

What happens next? The markets will lemming like treat all of the propaganda around this bailout as gospel, and get a sudden shot of confidence, until the realise it helps to inflame a sovereign debt crisis in Spain.  The Eurozone economies will be no more better off.  Economic growth will not be facilitated.  The lunatic far-left parties in Greece (including the fascists) will clamour that Greece should get the same support, as will Irish politicians and those in other profligate Eurozone countries.  None will acknowledge that this is not about sovereign debt and actually increases Spain's sovereign debt.  People in France will have voted for a socialist Parliament, which will seek to continue the "print it and bail them out" philosophy that pretends that fiat currencies can be used to just print your way out of recession.  The ideological debate in Europe will continue between three groups:

-  Austerity and Integration:  Led by Germany, it is the view that things will get better if only the PIIGS would follow the policies of the 5 or so Eurozone countries that have budget deficits lower than GDP growth, improve competitiveness and then create a new European Treaty that harmonises budgetary, taxation and economic policies. Spain's current government has tended to share this view too.

-  Profligacy and Integration:  Now led by France, but also driven by leftwing and populist politicians in the Eurozone.  It is the view that the Eurozone should socialise its gains and losses.  In other words, Germany and others should pay for the debts and deficits of the PIIGS, and there should be extensive transfers across the Eurozone, as if it was a United States of Europe.  

-  Disintegration:  A growing view that the Euro is unsustainable in its present form, and the way to resolve the crisis is for it to split into two zones or multiple independent currencies, so that the PIIGS can devalue their way to "competitiveness", and the European project becomes a looser free trade association and customs union.  This is the view of Eurosceptics generally, although there are versions of this argument against any form of open Europe (from Marxists and fascists) or against new small fiat currencies (supporters of commodity-based currencies).

The one thing is sure, don't expects sun to rise and everything to be rosy.  For the Greeks have to vote again to decide if they want to swallow reality and take their medicine, or run away from it and truly see what it takes to become a tinpot backwater that makes Albania look good.

North Korea's bad? The Sun thinks it's about circus animals

Regular readers will know I have a particular interest in North Korea (aka DPRK).  The reason being that it is, in my view, the most totalitarian regime the world has seen for any extended length of time, having now existed for 64 years, and is now the only successful three generational personality cult.  It is, as one writer described it, as if George Orwell’s novels “1984” and “Animal Farm” were taken not as warnings, but as instruction manuals.  Moreover, I’ve been there, although I am legally bound to not publish anything regarding that visit, and it is in the interests of my guides (who were exceptional), for me to do just that.

The sheer horror of the all pervasive denial of individual freedom and rejection of any objective consideration of reality, in favour of an “official view” is difficult to get across.  It is dehumanising, debilitating and life is cheap there.  It has all but scrubbed capitalism away, with private property rights virtually non-existent beyond a few personal chattels, with all employment defined and prescribed by the state.  Where you live, what job you do and your spare time are all almost entirely determined by others, and is a mixture of chance, favour and whim.   For those who insult the personality cult heads, or are deemed to be counter-revolutionary, the future is grim for them and their entire families.  If a man is said to have said something illegal, or folded a newspaper the wrong way (creasing an image of one of the leaders), or the like, it is to the gulags that he goes, with his wife or girlfriend, his parents, siblings and children.

You see in the DPRK, children can be political prisoners.  Forced to live in prisons high in the mountain valleys, from babies.  They receive rations that are starvation level, those who survive do so by eating bugs, mice and other things they can forage or hunt for.  Many are physically abused, some sexually abused, when old enough they are forced to work from dawn to late in the evening, every day.  It is one step removed from Nazi concentration camps, in that it isn’t gassing used to eliminate them, simply hard work, cold and malnutrition.

That horror isn’t easy to visit in the DPRK, for obvious reasons.  However, DPRK watchers have been adept at mapping, in great detail, where such camps are, with a brilliant Google Earth overlay.  For actual visitors to the DPRK, the horror is more subtle.  It isn’t in the power cuts, the propaganda, the relatively barren streets, crumbling infrastructure or the regimentation, it is what is not so obvious.  For there is a surfeit of videos and pictures of the DPRK’s key spectacles, none of which is that new.

It is the lack of children playing spontaneously, for their before and after school and weekend time is all taken up by state organised clubs and associations, all designed to promotion loyalty to the leaders, the party and the state, including dobbing in their parents for not being sufficiently loyal.  It is the orphanages where infants are shown off singing and dancing a song like “Kim Jong Il is our father”.  It is the constant climate of fear among citizens about who sees them, who listens to them and what will be said.  People who have had much history and information about the outside world kept from them, and what they do get is frequently heavily distorted.  People who are anxious to know about the outside world, to understand and to be free of fear.  Of course you never see those who are taken away, imprisoned, tortured or simply starving to death because of a regime that imprisons them and steals from them all to maintain a true 1% elite of privilege, gained by force, birth-right and fraud.

So what did Sun journalists Alex Peake and Simon Jones think was most important to focus on?  The treatment of circus animals.  The two of them lied their way into the country for a rather asinine story, probably wrecking future business of the tour company Lupine Tours, and quite possibly risking not only the end of the career, but also possible imprisonment of their tour guides.  A bit of research with DPRK experts (and there are a number of noted academics) would have told them the real cost of their “story” lies with others.

Now I’m all for thwarting dictatorships and embarrassing them, I’m particularly keen on getting more information into them and engaging with people who live there.  I’m also interested in raising the profile of the most serious atrocities of such regimes.  For the DPRK it must be the use of Stalinist type Gulags to imprison and enslave the children of political prisoners (though one can count the banishing of the disabled, uncounted public executions of political prisoners and the mass starvation of millions whilst the leadership dined like oligarchs).

However, for the Sun, it no doubt figured its readers were more interested in finding a country where they don’t know Michael Jackson is dead (hardly surprising, since the moon landings were never ever reported, and the Holocaust isn’t commonly known to have happened either), and where circuses involve the undoubted cruel treatment of bears and baboons.

Sad though it is, the treatment of the bears and baboons is not unusual outside Western Europe, and would also be found in many former Soviet Republics and China.  Quite simply the cultural norm of treating animals with compassion is alien to many cultures, and hardly a surprise for a state which retains structures and systems little changed from the ones the USSR transplanted onto it in the 1940s.

However, for the Sun to regard this to be the real tragic story of the DPRK is a travesty.   Although I would not be surprised if the human hating fraternity called PETA thinks the treatment of bears is more of an issue than the treatment of humans in the country, and that compassion for animals in the UK tends to rank higher than that for people.

I don’t belong to the feeding frenzy of hate-mongers who think any media owned by Rupert Murdoch is somehow evil – far from it.  However, this sort of “journalism” is not only rather facile, but at best is not useful, and at worst counterproductive.

For a start, if it means less people get to visit the place and expose it to foreign ideas and questions, because Lupine Tours is shut out of the market, then that is unfortunate.   I expect Lupine Tours to sue for breach of contract (presuming it was clever enough to include a contract that restricted the journalists).

However, the likely reaction of the DPRK is going to be more simple.  It will stop including the animal circus on tours visited by Westerners.  It wont save the animals.   However, it will give the impression that this is what matters the most – the treatment of circus animals.  It shouldn't be.

You see the impression most people have of the place is ludicrous dictators and nuclear weapons, with big monuments, mass regimentation and all other sorts of spectacles.  The unadulterated evil behind it all is largely ignored, particularly by the likes of Amnesty International and the leftwing protest movement - all too keen to damn the USA on its treatment of Islamist terrorist suspects, but never raising a protest against the torture of children by the DPRK.

A far more useful article would have sought out defectors, and discussed what they saw and experienced, and talked about the gulags with children in them.   This is what must be raised, again and again – the gulags must be opened up, letting the ICRC in and get closed down.  Children should not be political prisoners – ever (even though, in reality, virtually everyone in the DPRK is a political prisoner).

Better reporting on the DPRK is here in the Economist, about the horrors of the gulags, pointing out it is easier to lampoon the regime as freaky than to confront the true horror of the place.

This video of a starving orphan girl in the country is far more harrowing and disturbing than grotesque circus animals.   Although, I doubt PETA really thinks so.

Austerity and the Euro need not hinder growth

So what if I said that there is an economy in the Eurozone that has embraced austerity and is experiencing economic growth.

You'd probably think I mean Germany, given it runs relatively low budget deficits and it is widely believed that the depressed value of the Euro is a boon to Germany's export driven industries.

However, I don't mean Germany.  This country grew by 7.6% in 2011, Germany grew by 3%.

Its public debt as a proportion of GDP is 6%, Germany's is 81%.

It has been a Eurozone member since 1 January 2011.

This is Estonia.

According to CNBC, its economy shrank in 2008-2009 by 18%, as the financial crisis hit hard.  Estonia having had its own credit bubble and property speculation bubble to go with it.  The crisis also made it difficult for Estonia to sustain ballooning budget deficits.  So the government there did what had to be done, it cut spending.

All public sector salaries were cut by an average of 10%, but cabinet Ministers had a 20% cut.  The age to receive the state pension was raised, and labour market reforms introduced.

Things are not all rosy, with unemployment at over 11%, growth is essential just to help pull Estonia up.   Estonia lowered and simplified taxation, with a flat income tax rate of 21% (down from 26% when first introduced in 1994).   Not for Estonia is the pseudo-austerity seen in France, the UK and Greece of raising taxes (taking money out of the hands of citizens and investors) to cut the deficit.  It was spending cuts, shadowed by tax cuts that shrank the state and boosted the economy.

The economy has picked up as technology firms have emerged, growing an IT sector that is thriving.  For an economy that was once based on being a colony of the USSR, Estonia now rates Finland and Sweden as its biggest export markets.

Estonia has thrived following real austerity, and it has thrived still even having moved from a minor fiat currency to a major one.  The Euro has not been a problem, as Estonia increased in competitiveness not by destroying the savings of its citizens by printing money, but by increasing productivity, reducing waste in the state sector and making it easier to do business.   

Let's remember that Estonia's economy has twice been decimated in the last 20 or so years.  First by independence from the USSR which saw most of its industry shut down for being inefficient and obsolete, and secondly by the bursting of its credit bubble in 2008.  In both cases the reduction in GDP was greater than that experienced by Greece today.  Greece, after all, put aside dictatorship in 1974, not 1991 (nor was Greece occupied for 50 years).  Estonia has had much less time to get its act together, and until 2004 it was not a member of the European Union either, so neither enjoyed the completely open market, nor the offer of subsidies for agriculture or infrastructure that Greece has supped from for many years.

Estonia has per capita GDP less than Greece, real wages lower than the Greek minimum wage and its farmers receive subsidies which are one-third of that, for the equivalent properties, of those in Greece (or indeed France or the rest of the EU-15 - those EU Member States that were never part of the Warsaw Pact or former Yugoslavia).  

So Greece ought to embrace real austerity.  Cut its state sector.  Don't hike up taxes, but rather reform them to simplify and lower them - minimise exemptions, but lower rates and fewer taxes.  

Secondly, talk of exiting the Euro would be unnecessary as an alternative.  For a bankrupt state that can't keep its spending aligned to its revenue can't manufacture a fiat currency that will be trusted by anyone.  It will be like remaking the Zimbabwean Dollar.  

Finally, the Cato Institute has rightfully fisked Paul Krugman's misuse of statistics to claim Estonia was hit by austerity, when the recession it faced was prior to any austerity.  The President of Estonia, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, has since called Krugman "smug, overbearing and patronising".

So isn't it about time that journalists took the over-quoted prick on some more?

Check out Mr Ilves's wonderful tweets damning Krugman in this Huffington Post article - bear in mind this is in English and not Mr Ilves's first language, but he runs rings around any current leaders of English speaking countries I know of.   Bear in mind also that he is a centrist in Estonian political circles.  He is no libertarian, he is no radical, but the mainstream of Estonian politics is fiscal austerity, low tax and low levels of regulation.

Finally, Mr Ilves wrote convincingly on the Hoover Institution (Stanford University) website about how his country got to where it is, with some damning of those on the left in the West who thought people in the USSR simply loved living under the authoritarian yoke of the CPSU (point fingers at Sue Bradford and friends).  He points out the issue that countries like his are being expected to contribute to bailouts for countries with higher per capita incomes than Estonia.   How long will taxpayers in those countries tolerate that?  The answer is that they shouldn't.

In short, the clear point is that there are European countries that had it far harder for far longer than Greece, have "followed the rules", and have been reaping the benefits of the hard work involved in rebuilding a productive economy with much less government.

If eastern Europe gets it (and not all of it does), does it mean that in future, the term "southern Europe" will be a synonym for stagnation, corruption and economic malaise, more than the east?

Furthermore, what does it mean when voters in Greece and France choose governments that essentially campaign on forcing voters in other EU countries to pay for their profligacy?

UPDATE: Anonymous below points out that income tax in Estonia is not all it seems as employer social security contributions are 33% on top of income tax, which is obviously a heavy burden.   See more on Estonian tax here.

Sometimes culture is corrosive

One of the big news stories this week in the UK has been around the conviction of nine men in the Greater Manchester for systematic sexual exploitation of vulnerable underage girls.   

I don't want to go into the lurid details, but essentially these men, using two takeaway businesses owned by them, lured girls in their early teens into relationships and being passed from man to man, and with other men.  They plied them with liquor, bribed them with mobile phones, gifts and money, and the girls engaged in a wide range of sexual activities, including group sex.  The men almost acted as their pimps, and were deliberately predatory.  The face lengthy jail terms.

In one example, the BBC reports:

sentencing the ringleader to 19 years in prison, the judge called him an "unpleasant and hypocritical bully" who had ordered a 15-year-old girl to have sex with takeaway worker Kabeer Hassan as a birthday "treat".

However, the elephant in the room on this issue is about race and culture.

The men range in age from 24 to 59. All are Muslims, eight are Pakistani, one is Afghan. 

None of the girls abused were Muslim, they all appeared to be British.  

So?  Well the judge found that the men treated the girls "as though they were worthless and beyond respect" and that "One of the factors leading to that was the fact that they were not part of your community or religion"

In short, these men targeted girls, not just because they were young and impressionable, not just because they tended to come from broken or troubled low income homes, so were needy, but because they had blatantly misogynistic attitudes towards girls and women who are not of their ilk.

Pakistani Muslim girls, after all, are expected to remain virgins until marriage and to be under the control and supervision of their fathers until it is the time for their husbands.  English girls of course are, from the point of view of the men, sluts to be used and disposed of as objects for their satisfaction.

The fact that some of these men are married, with their own daughters, was irrelevant to them in their hypocrisy and dehumanisation of their victims.  One of these married fathers got a 13 year old girl pregnant.

Of course there are millions of men who rape and exploit women and girls, of all races and cultures.  Indeed misogyny is the norm in most countries outside the Western world.  I know no one who would try to claim that such behaviour is confined or dominated by Pakistani/Afghan Muslim men in the UK.

However, culture is a factor.  It is a factor in the men's behaviour, but sadly has also been part of the Police's response to early complaints about their behaviour.  The men have also claimed that the prosecution is "racist" and the conviction is racist because the jury happened to be all-white - as if the UK is dominated by the attitudes of the British National Party/National Front (neither of which can muster more than 2% of the total vote at the last general election).

Former Labour MP Ann Cryer says the Police did not proceed with prosecution of one of the men for fear of being branded "racist".  In short, the cultural relativism and hypersensitivity to the left's instant response to anyone of a ethnic minority accused of crime, cost time, pain and suffering to the victims.

However, the race industry supporters have stood by claiming it isn't about race and religion.    Leftwing journalist Sunny Hundal claims that it is irrelevant because Muslim men also rape Muslim girls, and that it was just misogyny.  Ken Livingstone sycophant/leftwing activist Lee Jasper simply claims it is not race.

Strictly speaking they are right.  It isn't race per se, but it is culture and identity.

The liberal values that most people in the West reflect are ones that treat women with respect as equals, and also treat young women and girls as deserving of protection and respect, rather than as objects for the satisfaction of men.

It is not a value shared by men people from most other cultures. 

Both law and practice seen in almost all non-Western societies is to treat women and girls as subservient.   In parts of Africa, raping virgin girls is seen as a cure for AIDS, indeed Chairman Mao once considered it appropriate to "cleanse" himself with girls in that way.  From the boundaries of the EU across the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, up through East Asia through to Japan, misogyny remains the norm.

Pretending that all cultures deserve respect maintains the corrosion of the bigotry and mindlessness so many perpetuate, which those of us proud of individualism should remember, is so young in our own cultures.  It was, after all, not that long ago that a girl going to the police about rape would be treated as if she asked for it - and it is sadly far from unknown for that attitude to still be expressed.

Fortunately, more than a few Pakistani Muslims in the UK have demanded that attitudes must change, that working class young girls who are vulnerable are not fair game for married fathers to rape, abuse and treat as if they 'asked for it' (as one young man of similar extraction volunteered to a TV camera last week). 

It isn't racist to point it out, as much as the real racists in the near corpse of the BNP are trying to milk it for. 

It's simply supporting the individual rights of those who get exploited by those who hold cultural values alien to the country they have chosen to reside within.  Values that should be alien to ALL countries - values that belong in the past, with slavery (and indeed the worship of a pedophile prophet).

three elections - three stories - little reason

So in the past week or so there have been four elections which have had greater or lesser coverage in the international media.  What are the key lessons from them all?

1.  The all involve people choosing politicians, which is the worst form of government ever devised (except for the alternatives).  Nearly a million people think Ken Livingstone, a warm supporter of Fidel Castro, is a fit and proper person to spend billions of pounds on a city.  More than half of French voters think a man who has never created a job in his life, should run Europe's third largest economy.  A majority of Greek voters want to be told what to do by authoritarian Marxists and fascists.

2.  Boris Johnson is a funny engaging man who woos women and is intelligent and entertaining.  Moreso than Ken Livingstone.  He won because he captures people's imagination, and he didn't pretend to be offering that much.  He offered frugality, a 10% cut in the Council Tax levied by the Greater London Authority, but also didn't pretend to not be a private educated, Oxbridge, upper class chap.  In an age where being a celebrity and a character is more valued than most things, it worked.

3. Ken Livingstone is a bitter nasty old socialist who plays class warfare politics, who blamed the riots on austerity, who says one thing and does another, who plays fast and loose with comments about rich Jews and says one thing about gay rights whilst giving succour to Islamists.  He's a politician of the past, and cost Labour victory.

4. Beyond the London mayoral elections, Labour did well because over 60% of voters didn't bother at all.   The core opposition to the government was motivated, the core support was not.  The Liberal Democrats continue to erode into what looks like fourth party status.  The Greens, despite some efforts in doing well, have barely lifted their support as the environmental arguments don't wash well in a recession.  The socialist fascist BNP lost every council seat it defended, including losing what had been its single seat on the London Assembly.  UKIP gained some votes but not seats.   People are fed up with politicians, don't trust them and given the gaffes around the last UK budget, it's hardly surprising the UK coalition is uninspiring.

5. The French have always voted for socialism, it has long been a matter of degree.  Now they have voted for a hardened socialist rather than a softened champagne socialist who preaches austerity, but really lives it up large at the cost of future taxpayers and who preaches suspicion of foreigners when he himself is the son of a Hungarian migrant.  Now they can pretend that they can stop trying to live within their means, get taxed more and just borrow to prop up their socialist economy where, despite the mythology, manufacturing is no bigger a part of the economy than it is in Britain.  Bear in mind a fifth of the French are warm towards a fascist and another 15% are warm towards communists, then you see that liberte isn't as big as equalite in France.

6. The Greeks have voted in protest.  The two formely major parties responsible for decades of overspending, lying about debt, a culture of corruption and rent seeking, have been decimated.  The "centre-right" New Democracy party has the greatest number of seats, but 108 in a Parliament of 308 is far from enough to govern.  The "centre-left" PASOK party which led the last government is third with 41 seats.  Second is the Marxist "Coalition of the Radical Left" with 52 seats - a party of communists, Trotskyites, environmentalists and Maoists.  It promises to reject spending cuts, reject austerity and somehow magically produce a socialist motherland where money can pay for the big warm maternal state that makes everything happy again.   Fourth is the new Independent Greeks party, with 33 seats, which is an odd nationalist party wanting the Germans to pay war reparations, rejecting loan agreements with the EU and wanting politicians and officials responsible for the crisis to be prosecuted - well I can agree on the last one, but I think the Germans have done Greece enough good by lending to it when nobody else would!  Fifth is the Communist Party of Greece, which picked up to get 26 seats.  The party that is Marxist-Leninist and would have run Greece like a totalitarian twin of Bulgaria had the Greek Civil War gone differently, not that anyone noticed. However, everyone noticed that  Sixth is the fascist Golden Dawn Party with 21 seats.  It rejects the Enlightenment and the industrial revolution, is radical Greek Orthodox, and wants removal of foreigners.  Greeks almost certainly will face no stable government that will enable their bloated state to be funded - indeed, the future looks bleaker now than ever before.

So for London?  Business as usual - nothing to see here.

For France?  A little man (shorter than Sarkozy) is going to fight austerity - that hasn't even happened- but will inevitably bow to reality, because he is, at the heart of it all, a man who will listen to the grand French statist bureaucracy.   Expect little change, although there are reports that real estate agents in South Kensington in London are facing record queries from wealthy Parisians seeking to flee punitive taxes Hollande has promised.

For Greece?   Hardly anyone has been telling people in Greece the only solutions to their problems are:
-  Accept the government has failed them, make their own arrangements for retirement, healthcare and education.
-  Move all their money into foreign bank accounts, preferably not in Euros, or buy precious metals.
-  Hunker down and accept that the next 5-10 years will be very hard for those who can't or wont make provision for themselves.