Saturday, October 04, 2008

Appeasing North Korea

So:

- You run a totalitarian slave state which a loud declared intent of "liberating" your neighbour. You are known to already hold ICBMs, biological and chemical weapons.
- You develop a nuclear weapons programme which isn't admitted as even being a nuclear programme until the US confronts the world with the evidence.
- You announced withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement all the time continuing to develop your nuclear programme. The IAEA declares that it cannot provide any meaningful assurances that you are not developing nuclear weapons.
- The Clinton administration does a deal - the "Agreed Framework" to supply fuel oil, light water reactors and economic aid, in exchange for ceasing plutonium enrichment. In comes the fuel oil, and the aid - you're smiling.
- The IAEA immediately states its dissatisfaction with the Clinton Administration's deal because it gives North Korea too long to comply- which of course, pleases you immensely, because you can move things.
- The aid continues, you allow inspections of the facilities you have cleaned out, and you keep both the aid, and the reprocessed plutonium and uranium.
- Under the Bush Administration, after being called a member of the axis of evil, you admit to having a nuclear weapons programme all along. You say you have every right to do so, and besides the promised nuclear reactors are years behind schedule. You refuse to allow inspections, but say you will halt (again) if you get aid. Your first bluff worked - you got aid AND weapons.
- Meanwhile a ship is discovered with missiles you've made being transported to Yemen.
- The US halts oil shipments and aid, and demands you keep up your side of the bargain. You remove seals from the original nuclear reactor and announce it is going to be activated again, and you'll restart reprocessing plutonium.
- IAEA refers the issue to the UN Security Council.
- You declare how you proudly develop your nuclear deterrent and you'll prove it, but you'll freeze in exchange for concessions.
- Clinton Administration Secretary of State Madeleine Albright admits that you cheated during the Clinton years.
- You say you'll treat the US as a friend as long as it stops slandering your system - President Bush had previously called your leader a tyrant, you maintain concentration camps for children of political prisoners down to infant age.
- You reach agreement with the US again to halt the programme, and rejoin the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement. Then you say you want a light water reactor again.
- You test fire seven missiles just to show you're serious.
- You announce you'll test a nuclear weapons, and you do.
- UN Security Council passes resolution of sanctions, mainly financial and trade in luxury goods.
- You agree to shut down the reactor after receiving 50,000 tonnes of fuel aid, and allowing inspections to verify. Inspections verify you have shut down the reactor.
- You throw out inspectors once more and recommission the plant.

Now a deal is struck between you and the US, for you to be removed from the list of countries supporting terrorism, and to have a new verification plan for the ceasing of activities.

You still have nuclear weapons, missiles and still sabre rattle daily against South Korea, Japan and the USA on your media.

Yes, I know the question is - what else can be done? Well, this house of cards is ready to collapse - you'd be wiser to engage with it as much as possible, offer North Korean officials trips to learn about economics, business and governance elsewhere, and plan for the collapse.

However playing its endless game of blackmail and bribe, is not the answer. That should end. Meanwhile, I am sure South Korea and Japan are grateful for the US nuclear umbrella.

2 comments:

ZenTiger said...

It seems to me that the left don't agree with the question "what else can be done".

It's more like "why do anything at all, these lightweight sanctions are aggressive war-mongering and will only make matters worse."

Matters will get worse, and being involved only gives such people ammunition to blame the US for the outcome.

Meanwhile, North Koreans suffering under the dictatorship continue to suffer. Even that will eventually be blamed on the US.

I wish there were less of these idiots.

The ex-expat said...

Zen tiger,
Because despite the political hyperoble the South Koreans don't want to bankroll a german-style reunification Post-Kim but at the same time them along with they along with the Americans don't want any unnecessary Chinese interference on the Korean peninsular. For their part the Japanese would also be very wary of changes as the Koreans (both sets) still feel very angry towards Japan's treatment of them during the empire's annexation of Korea.