As I continue my series on Labour list candidates, it is becoming clear that these ones have a good chance of winning their electorates. In 2005, Labour got to number 48 on its list, so this is the level at which Labour hopes to achieve again this time. Voting Labour helps guarantee these people getting elected and gaining power - but as you'll see the candidates I list below are in seats where, sadly, the plurality of voters seem to be Labour supporters.
Iain Lees-Galloway – Palmerston North - number 48: A profile, with no photo nor a website. However, he DOES have a website, just not linked on the Labour website. He’s another unionist, student union first then Nurses. Diversity being a hallmark of the Labour Party.
He says “My greatest satisfaction is empowering individuals and groups to achieve change by providing them the support and advice they need”. Whatever floats your boat Iain, but good for you – you don’t realize that being in the Labour Party you’ll be by default trying to control people and spend their money. None of his profile is offensive “We need New Zealand and the world to know about the great things we have to offer in education, research, distribution and healthcare – our fortes and the keys to our future” he could be promoting Palmerston North. Innocuous enough.
His website shows him to be a classic collectivist socialist though “Do we continue with positive, progressive, inclusive change that delivers for all New Zealanders or do we change back to the bad old days of individualism and division? Of the politics of the few at the expense of the community? Is that really the Kiwi way?” Yes Nanny State is good for us, don’t you go off being an individual you selfish bastard! The community first, your property, your taxes, your life, your business come second to Iain (see he hasn’t run a business).
This is Steve Maharey’s seat, and he is retiring. Maharey got 53.9% of the electorate vote in 2005 compared to National’s Malcolm Plimmer on 36.7%. As the party vote for Labour was lower (45%), this shows Maharey had considerable local appeal. Although curiously National’s party vote in Palmerston North was virtually identical to the electorate vote. Iain should comfortably win Palmerston North, although National has selected Plimmer as its candidate once more. Another leftwing unionist almost certainly walking into Parliament if the voters of Palmerston North vote like 2005. Prediction- Iain Lees-Galloway will be the MP for Palmerston North.
Chris Hipkins – Rimutaka – number 47: Photo and profile, no website link on the Labour site, but he does have a website, and a blog. He’s only 30, and is yet another ex student union President. His education was a BA in politics and criminology, and he most recently has been inculcated into the Labour government by working for Trevor Mallard, Steve Maharey and Helen Clark.
“New Zealand has become a better place during Labour’s time in office, but there are new challenges ahead. Labour has the best ideas and plans for the future, and I hope to bring some new energy to the task of changing our country for the better.” Yep plans for us all, ha ha ha ha. No, seriously, just another lot of centre-left blandness. He thinks Labour is responsible for things "becoming better", not the hard work of businesspeople and other individuals.
He has made some bold assertions in speeches “We led international opinion against apartheid in South Africa and the war in Vietnam.” Really? I thought that black Africa did the former, and the latter was the USSR! New Zealand fought in Vietnam Chris.
Bless he doesn’t think some things can be done differently “When you visit the doctor, the majority of the tab will be collected by the taxpayers of the future. The same will apply when you collect your weekly super. Even when you drive to the local supermarket, you’ll be using roads maintained through the taxes and rates of those still in the workforce.” He even thinks it is right!
Rimutaka is Paul Swain’s seat, he also is retiring to be with his tall young wife. He got 54.2% of the vote in 2005, against National’s Mike Leddy who got 30.2%. Party vote was 47.6% for Labour and 33.9% for National, so again a bit of personal loyalty. Hipkins should take Rimutaka relatively easily, so he’ll be a young new voice on the left. Prediction - Chris Hipkins will be the next MP for Rimutaka,
Grant Robertson – Wellington Central – number 46: Photo, profile, no website link on the Labour site, but he has a website. After all this IS Wellington Central. “I want to play my part in developing Wellington as a truly sustainable city, and ensuring that all Wellingtonians get to enjoy all that it has to offer.” Ensuring all?? A big ask. “I am involved in politics because of my passionate belief in social justice and my desire to make our country and the world a fairer and more equal place. For me equality is the basis of aspiration, opportunity and success. I am proud of what Labour has done in government since 1999.” Ugh, social justice – the euphemism from take from those you don’t like and give to those you do. Equality – as I said before, the aspiration of the Khmer Rouge – pushing down those at the top to the level of those below. Everyone successful, everyone as good as each other – nobody too rich, too successful.
Grant is BA(Hons) politics, been a diplomat, advisor to Clark and Hobbs, and yet another Student Union President. Bloody student unions! However have no doubt about it, he’s a socialist:
“people no matter who they are or where they are from are entitled to opportunity and equality. There is no doubt in my mind that this will require forms of redistribution and redress. It requires recognition that discrimination can not be allowed to develop, and that affirmative action may be required. A humane society will not cease in its journey to social justice.”
So he is at least honest, he believes in taking money from those he considers “rich” and giving it to others, unearned. He believes that privileges dished out by race or sex (affirmative action), discriminating against those at the margins who aren’t of those groups, is good. He believes in Nanny State.
He warns of something some of us dream for “The “useless bureaucrats” as John Key has described them will be sacrificed by National at the alter of tax cuts for the wealthy.” I wish.
This is Marian Hobbs’s seat, Marian got 49.3% of the electorate vote in 2005, against National’s Mark Blumsky on 34.2%. The party votes were 43.3% for Labour and 32.6% for National – yes the electorate of public servants tends to vote for the government. However, it is also highly volatile. It would be a mistake to treat Wellington Central like other safe Labour seats. Marian Hobbs certainly had a strong personal following, and this is a seat that was held by ACT from 1996 to 1999, and by National before that. Stephen Franks may give Grant a run for his money, but it would be a brave punter that picks Wellington Central. I’d say odds favour Robertson this time round, a 15% gap will be hard for the Nats to narrow. Prediction - Grant Robertson will win by a slim margin.
Clare Curran – Dunedin South – number 45: Profile and photo. No website.
"People want secure jobs, better wages, superannuation and living standards and a society that cares for its most vulnerable.They also want their communities and neighbourhoods to be safer, more cohesive, better resourced and with strong links to public transport and other core services." However Clare doesn't want to encourage them to do something about it, but rely on nanny state to deliver it for them.
Dave at Big News posted about her last year: You see, she is a PR hack. Another spin doctor, a little like Brendon Burns.
"In 2006 Curran wrote this paper entitled "language matters" on framing the discussion to generat support for Labour. It states:
How National set the agenda in 2005, not Labour
* The media don’t create the message, they run with it
* The need to come up with a new set of phrases such as “We’ve made mistakes” (would pay to see Helen say that one)
* How to position National as the “enemies of the people”"
Now the big issue with Curran is that she has replaced David Benson-Pope as the Labour nominee. Assuming Benson-Pope does not stand as an independent, it should be Curran's seat for the taking. Benson-Pope had 57% of the electorate vote in 2005, against National's Conway Powell at 26.7%. If Curran can't deliver this solid Labour seat, she needs to abandon PR altogether. Party vote proportions were nearly identical to electorate votes as well. Conway Powell is standing for National again, but realistically his chances are low.
Prediction- Curran will be the new MP for Dunedin South.
So all of these four should win their seats. Robertson is perhaps the one at greatest risk. However, I'd be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Labour did not get all of these seats. Certainly the odds that these candidates could win on the list alone is not particularly high.
Iain Lees-Galloway – Palmerston North - number 48: A profile, with no photo nor a website. However, he DOES have a website, just not linked on the Labour website. He’s another unionist, student union first then Nurses. Diversity being a hallmark of the Labour Party.
He says “My greatest satisfaction is empowering individuals and groups to achieve change by providing them the support and advice they need”. Whatever floats your boat Iain, but good for you – you don’t realize that being in the Labour Party you’ll be by default trying to control people and spend their money. None of his profile is offensive “We need New Zealand and the world to know about the great things we have to offer in education, research, distribution and healthcare – our fortes and the keys to our future” he could be promoting Palmerston North. Innocuous enough.
His website shows him to be a classic collectivist socialist though “Do we continue with positive, progressive, inclusive change that delivers for all New Zealanders or do we change back to the bad old days of individualism and division? Of the politics of the few at the expense of the community? Is that really the Kiwi way?” Yes Nanny State is good for us, don’t you go off being an individual you selfish bastard! The community first, your property, your taxes, your life, your business come second to Iain (see he hasn’t run a business).
This is Steve Maharey’s seat, and he is retiring. Maharey got 53.9% of the electorate vote in 2005 compared to National’s Malcolm Plimmer on 36.7%. As the party vote for Labour was lower (45%), this shows Maharey had considerable local appeal. Although curiously National’s party vote in Palmerston North was virtually identical to the electorate vote. Iain should comfortably win Palmerston North, although National has selected Plimmer as its candidate once more. Another leftwing unionist almost certainly walking into Parliament if the voters of Palmerston North vote like 2005. Prediction- Iain Lees-Galloway will be the MP for Palmerston North.
Chris Hipkins – Rimutaka – number 47: Photo and profile, no website link on the Labour site, but he does have a website, and a blog. He’s only 30, and is yet another ex student union President. His education was a BA in politics and criminology, and he most recently has been inculcated into the Labour government by working for Trevor Mallard, Steve Maharey and Helen Clark.
“New Zealand has become a better place during Labour’s time in office, but there are new challenges ahead. Labour has the best ideas and plans for the future, and I hope to bring some new energy to the task of changing our country for the better.” Yep plans for us all, ha ha ha ha. No, seriously, just another lot of centre-left blandness. He thinks Labour is responsible for things "becoming better", not the hard work of businesspeople and other individuals.
He has made some bold assertions in speeches “We led international opinion against apartheid in South Africa and the war in Vietnam.” Really? I thought that black Africa did the former, and the latter was the USSR! New Zealand fought in Vietnam Chris.
Bless he doesn’t think some things can be done differently “When you visit the doctor, the majority of the tab will be collected by the taxpayers of the future. The same will apply when you collect your weekly super. Even when you drive to the local supermarket, you’ll be using roads maintained through the taxes and rates of those still in the workforce.” He even thinks it is right!
Rimutaka is Paul Swain’s seat, he also is retiring to be with his tall young wife. He got 54.2% of the vote in 2005, against National’s Mike Leddy who got 30.2%. Party vote was 47.6% for Labour and 33.9% for National, so again a bit of personal loyalty. Hipkins should take Rimutaka relatively easily, so he’ll be a young new voice on the left. Prediction - Chris Hipkins will be the next MP for Rimutaka,
Grant Robertson – Wellington Central – number 46: Photo, profile, no website link on the Labour site, but he has a website. After all this IS Wellington Central. “I want to play my part in developing Wellington as a truly sustainable city, and ensuring that all Wellingtonians get to enjoy all that it has to offer.” Ensuring all?? A big ask. “I am involved in politics because of my passionate belief in social justice and my desire to make our country and the world a fairer and more equal place. For me equality is the basis of aspiration, opportunity and success. I am proud of what Labour has done in government since 1999.” Ugh, social justice – the euphemism from take from those you don’t like and give to those you do. Equality – as I said before, the aspiration of the Khmer Rouge – pushing down those at the top to the level of those below. Everyone successful, everyone as good as each other – nobody too rich, too successful.
Grant is BA(Hons) politics, been a diplomat, advisor to Clark and Hobbs, and yet another Student Union President. Bloody student unions! However have no doubt about it, he’s a socialist:
“people no matter who they are or where they are from are entitled to opportunity and equality. There is no doubt in my mind that this will require forms of redistribution and redress. It requires recognition that discrimination can not be allowed to develop, and that affirmative action may be required. A humane society will not cease in its journey to social justice.”
So he is at least honest, he believes in taking money from those he considers “rich” and giving it to others, unearned. He believes that privileges dished out by race or sex (affirmative action), discriminating against those at the margins who aren’t of those groups, is good. He believes in Nanny State.
He warns of something some of us dream for “The “useless bureaucrats” as John Key has described them will be sacrificed by National at the alter of tax cuts for the wealthy.” I wish.
This is Marian Hobbs’s seat, Marian got 49.3% of the electorate vote in 2005, against National’s Mark Blumsky on 34.2%. The party votes were 43.3% for Labour and 32.6% for National – yes the electorate of public servants tends to vote for the government. However, it is also highly volatile. It would be a mistake to treat Wellington Central like other safe Labour seats. Marian Hobbs certainly had a strong personal following, and this is a seat that was held by ACT from 1996 to 1999, and by National before that. Stephen Franks may give Grant a run for his money, but it would be a brave punter that picks Wellington Central. I’d say odds favour Robertson this time round, a 15% gap will be hard for the Nats to narrow. Prediction - Grant Robertson will win by a slim margin.
Clare Curran – Dunedin South – number 45: Profile and photo. No website.
"People want secure jobs, better wages, superannuation and living standards and a society that cares for its most vulnerable.They also want their communities and neighbourhoods to be safer, more cohesive, better resourced and with strong links to public transport and other core services." However Clare doesn't want to encourage them to do something about it, but rely on nanny state to deliver it for them.
Dave at Big News posted about her last year: You see, she is a PR hack. Another spin doctor, a little like Brendon Burns.
"In 2006 Curran wrote this paper entitled "language matters" on framing the discussion to generat support for Labour. It states:
How National set the agenda in 2005, not Labour
* The media don’t create the message, they run with it
* The need to come up with a new set of phrases such as “We’ve made mistakes” (would pay to see Helen say that one)
* How to position National as the “enemies of the people”"
Now the big issue with Curran is that she has replaced David Benson-Pope as the Labour nominee. Assuming Benson-Pope does not stand as an independent, it should be Curran's seat for the taking. Benson-Pope had 57% of the electorate vote in 2005, against National's Conway Powell at 26.7%. If Curran can't deliver this solid Labour seat, she needs to abandon PR altogether. Party vote proportions were nearly identical to electorate votes as well. Conway Powell is standing for National again, but realistically his chances are low.
Prediction- Curran will be the new MP for Dunedin South.
So all of these four should win their seats. Robertson is perhaps the one at greatest risk. However, I'd be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Labour did not get all of these seats. Certainly the odds that these candidates could win on the list alone is not particularly high.
2 comments:
OMG! This is worse than a bunch of blondes at a beauty pagent telling us how they want to feed the poor and save the whale.
You are miles off your predictions in these 3 electorates Scott! I predict each of those electorates will go to National. You have not factored in boundary changes in Palmerston North & Rimutaka. Also you have not factored in the retirement of popular local MP's. Sources tell me if there is to be surprise wins for National in any electorates these are the 3! The Manawatu Standard already has Malcom miles ahead in a poll they conducted. Ron Mark will split the left vote in Rimutaka and all 3 candidates have been strongly campaigning full on for months now.
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