Key cuts to bureaucracy?

Hmmm it swings all over the place doesn't it - National policy I mean. One week government spending cuts aren't going to happen, and now the NZ Herald states "National would ask state sector bosses to find savings in their departments" and John Key "would call state sector chief executives in to talk with him after the election and ask them for a "line by line" of their expenditure with an aim to make savings."It's very important that we get value for money because that's what New Zealanders are being forced to do around their kitchen tables every day,""

Great stuff! Just what is needed, in fact not dissimilar to what I recommended a while ago. Get every departmental head to justify its existence and budget, and cut projects.

You know it is good policy because one of the biggest advocates of making you pay for people who don't actually produce anything you want to pay for growing bureaucracy, the PSA, is bleeting utter nonsense "If people lose their jobs because of the crisis, they will need support from public services to ensure they can feed their families and to try and get them back into the workforce".

Excuse me? If you lose your job, it is important that we continue to tax you on what you earn, invested and buy so that we can give you help you weren't willing to pay for in the first place? Besides that - how many policy advisors help people feed their families?

No, the PSA should shut up and be accountable to the people who pay their wages - they are called taxpayers, and if they vote for a change in government one reason will be because they are fed up with the PSA thinking taxpayers can be milked endlessly to pay for their jobs.

What will happen to the Maori seats?

So let me get it clear. Let's assume National forms a government after the election. There are several configurations, but the following appear possible. However, what will happen to the Maori seats under these options?

1. National majority government: Maori seats stay until Treaty settlements process concluded. So no change over that term.
2. National coalition/confidence & supply agreement with Maori Party (or Greens): Maori seats stay.
3. National coalition/confidence & supply agreement with ACT: Who knows?

Only Libertarianz explicitly has as its policy (I can't find it on the ACT website, so am happy to be corrected) to abolish the Maori seats and Maori electoral roll, so Maori votes can be counted as with all others, in both electorates and the party vote. So that's where good National Party policy came from in 2005 and has gone again.

Oh and if you think it is racist, then ask the Royal Commission on the Electoral System which saw implementing MMP as rendering the Maori seats as unnecessary, with a 4% party threshold that could be suspended for Maori political parties (hmmm).

Winston's old tune

The NZ Herald reports Winston calling for immigration to be cut to "protect NZ jobs". How big a yawn can that be? Immigration is by and large good, because as long as your immigration policy does not open up the welfare state to the world, immigrants tend to be better motivated and harder working than locals - especially those who never leave!

I have a very simple approach to immigration. It is a halfway house whilst there still is compulsory state health, education and welfare.

You are welcome to New Zealand if:
1) You have no criminal convictions for offences that would be violent/sexual/property/fraud offences if they happened in New Zealand. A false declaration to this effect will result in deportation;
2) You accept you are ineligible for welfare, state health, housing and education (including for your family). After three years you are either eligible or you receive a tax credit to recognise your self sufficiency from the state (which also can be offered to current residents);
3) You have employment or sufficient funds to provide for yourself and your family (jointly if a couple) for three months, including an airfare to your previous resident country;
4) You swear allegiance to not engaging in any criminal activity, under threat of deportation.

After all, if an immigrant isn't a criminal and doesn't claim from the taxpayer, then why would you NOT welcome them?

Unless you're just a whinging xenophobic loser?

Green's uncosted transport policy

Well so you may think, the Greens have launched a transport plan for Auckland without a single cost for construction, let alone any (undoubted) subsidies for ongoing operations. Like a bunch of 13 year olds doing a project.

So the tooth fairy might fund it, because the Greens don’t give a damn about costs. Benefits? No. The Greens haven’t evaluated the proposal, you don’t get to see how many minutes travel time you might save, how much emissions will reduce, even how much it would cost to ride this gold plated transport system. I don't mean exact economic appraisal, but some ballpark so that it can be rebutted.

No – the Greens just say that you’ll get less congestion, cleaner air, “healthier lifestyles” (you’ll walk more) and a rather sinister “more room on the roads for essential travel” (they know when your travel is essential and when it is trivial – the petty fascists that they are).

How can they possibly be taken seriously on this? Like I’ve said time and time again, it is religious worshipping of rail. However they’ve outdone themselves this time. Some blatant mistakes:
- Funding will shift from ratepayers to government, reducing the burden on ratepayers (but no mention of taxpayers);
- The Waterview connection of SH20 is mentioned for scrapping, except their own map indicates a motorway on that route – for buses. What’s that about?;
- “BRT (bus rapid transit) is much faster and cheaper to build than rail” they say, which begs the question, why are you obsessed with rail?
- Funding that goes to Transit New Zealand for motorways would go to ARTA they say, except Transit New Zealand was abolished by legislation the Greens supported. Are motorways to not be maintained??

Don’t forget, since 1999 the Greens have worked closely with Labour on transport policy. You might think that since transport matters to the Greens they may bother costing and evaluating their policies. No. Like I’ve said before, it’s the Green religion – railways good, cars and trucks bad, don’t ask any questions, just write out the cheque. I mean cheques, because by no stretch of the imagine will people riding this flash new public transport system be paying the full costs of operating it.

Greens like National's super theft policy

When the Greens say "it’s nice to see that National does have some good ideas. Investing 40 percent of the Super fund in New Zealand is a positive way to support New Zealand businesses and jobs, as well as protect and diversify New Zealand’s economy."

The most diehard National supporter must surely start being suspicious.

This from people who launch a grand transport policy for Auckland, without any costs attached to it, (except they want to divert $1.9 billion from a road project, but no indication that this is enough), it ought to make you wonder when economic illiterates support you.

Or was this National's grand plan to divert votes to ACT?

NZ Superannuation Fund fraud

Think of a superannuation scheme or pension fund that you join - or rather, are forced to join.

Your contribution to the fund varies according to your income. The more you earn the more you pay.

What you receive from the fund depends on one thing: How long you live.

If you don't reach age 65, you'll get nothing, your inheritance will get nothing, in fact your contributions will just have gone to someone else.

If you do reach 65, you'll get - whatever the government thinks everyone who reaches that age will get. If you spent your life on welfare or low income jobs paying next to no tax you'll get the same as a successful entrepreneur who has spent many years on the top marginal tax rate.

You wouldn't choose such a fund now would you?

So why do you vote for political parties that set it up, want to maintain it and even want to use it to play political games as if it is a sovereign wealth fund it can throw at "investments" it makes.

Greens want to deflate house prices more

Yes, the Greens think the time is right to pillage more of your children's taxes (it's called borrowing) to build more state houses. Even though property prices have been heading downwards, increasing the affordability of buying a home, the Greens remain outside the planet where price is a factor demand and supply, and think that forcing people to pay for more housing is a good thing.

So the Greens pillage your money and encourage your house price to drop too. Of course they want it in places where there is "excellent public transport" - ignoring whether that public transport actually would take you where you want to go, because a railway station is like a church to them.

Great stuff, check out the loopy economics. Easier to afford a home (cheaper), easier to move around without a car (cheaper) AND you are forced to pay for it whether you own a home, use public transport already or not.

Hopefully voters will simply say - f-off and leave my money alone in a recession you thieving socialists!

British banks to lend you your own money

Satirical website Daily Mash has an excellent take on the UK government's recent welfare subsidising nationalising handout to banks.

"THE government is to invest £500bn of your money in British banks so they can lend it back to you with interest"

The best line has to be this:

"Meanwhile, Emma Bradford, a sales manager from Bath, said: "Why doesn't the government just give my money to me so I can buy stuff from businesses who will then make a profit and put it in a bank?"

But Mr Darling insisted: "Shut up.""

Earth to Jeanette Fitzsimons

Jeanette. You're in the Herald complaining about why motorways get fully funded but railways don't. There is a reason why the Government foots the full cost of motorways.

The revenue for it comes from - road users. The people using the roads pay for the roads (well the state highways anyway). Understand the concept? Fuel tax and road user charges are fully dedicated to the National Land Transport Fund, which funds motorways. Most people would see that as being fair, if a bit blunt.

Let's look at your beloved "urgent public transport improvements", you want the whole Auckland rail network electrified and a NZ$1 billion-plus (yep note the plus, I'm guessing half a billion more) tunnel for a two-way rail loop through central Auckland to the western line at Mt Eden. Where do you want the revenue to come from to pay for that? The people who will use the trains? No. In fact at best they will pay perhaps a half of the operating costs of the trains (if they can match Wellington).

You want ROAD USERS to pay for your rail schemes, even though only 7% of all trips in Auckland are by public transport, and of those a majority are by bus and ferry.

Not only that you want road users to pay to subsidise the operation of the rail scheme too. However you begrudge road users expecting their motoring taxes being spent on the roads they actually use?

Yes I know you'll argue that the road users benefit because someone has decided to ride a train, instead of drive. Well of course that person riding the train has apparently benefited more, because the road user is subsidising their travel. Why should that person not pay the costs of their travel?

Jeanette, don't you realise the reason the roads are congested is because capacity is built according to politically determined funding criteria, and roads are charged the same no matter wherever and whenever you drive, unlike how airlines, hotels, phone calls and other services are charged. Don't you realise your beloved Soviet style management of highways is the problem, not the lack of a goldplated public transport system?

So go on Jeanette - tell motorists that the Greens believe that the majority of fuel taxes and road user charges they pay should be used to pay for transport modes they don't use. Tell them how many minutes they'll save in trips, how much fuel they'll save from this approach - show you've done the research.

Oh, it's just a "belief" isn't it. Yes, that damned religion of yours.

Destructive scum should be denied welfare

The Dominion Post reports on the sort of people who will live off the back of others, who gain great pleasure in destroying what others produce - they aren't a big focus of the criminal justice system - and the welfare system will happily pay them to live, and breed.

It's a very simple policy to stop paying criminals to live and breed. Those convicted of such an offence should be denied any claim on the welfare state, and required to pay full compensation for the damage.

While the compulsory welfare state remains, why should those who wantonly destroy what others create, get the proceeds of it all?

What a leap forward it would be if National just promised to deny welfare benefits to those convicted of property offences, for at least ten years.

What's a bet Sue Bradford would say those who did this are "disadvantaged" (as if the intellectually disabled users of this IHC workshop are not), and deserve more of your money to keep them from being so destructive.

National policy "akin to communism"

So says a man who should know – Dr Michael Cullen according to Stuff.

He was commenting on the absurd policy announcement by John Key that National would direct the New Zealand Superannuation Fund – the only superannuation fund in the country that pays out the same regardless of how much or little you contribute to it – to invest 40% of its funds in New Zealand companies.

Key’s announcement is completely banal. It risks not only reducing the returns for the fund, but also concentrating too much risk in New Zealand investments. Furthermore, he talks about it investing in “infrastructure bonds”, which means simply, funding government borrowing. You don’t need infrastructure bonds if you let the private sector build, operate and charge users for infrastructure – such as how the country’s two mobile phone networks have been financed and built, and how the internet has been developed, how Auckland and Wellington airports have been developed. No – John Key is in Think Big land.

Dr Cullen is right – regardless of the merit of the NZ Superannuation Fund – not letting the fund managers invest where they see fit will devalue the fund. Furthermore, to suggest that it should finance “Think Big” style central planning government infrastructure projects on telecommunications, water, roads or whatever, is further reducing the likely return (or increasing government borrowing costs, you can’t have both), as well as supplanting private sector investment (increasingly used overseas) with compulsory taxpayer funding.

Of course, renationalising an airline and a railway are also “forms of communism”, so Dr Cullen is very experienced in what he is talking about.

The right answer is to do what, ironically, Winston Peters once advocated. Divide the NZ Superannuation Fund into individual accounts, and hand them to taxpayers to keep, invest in or sell. The consequence is that you are responsible for all or part of your retirement income (with some pro rata adjustment for those currently retired or relatively close to retirement).

Imagine - politicians for individual responsibility.

Cullen leaves Air NZ vulnerable to bloodbath

According to Stuff Qantas, through Jetstar, is about to wage war on the NZ government state owned airline. The statement "Jetstar also plans to use the two centres as a hub for direct flights to the United States and Asia using the new Boeing 787 Dreamliners." (meaning Auckland and Christchurch) will send shivers down the spines of Air NZ's minority private shareholders.

Who should be surprised - it is exactly the consequence of Michael Cullen's decision to not allow Air NZ to be bought by Singapore Airlines in 2002.

Many will have forgotten how Michael Cullen effectively vetoed by indecision Singapore Airlines increasing its stake in (the 100% privately owned) Air New Zealand/Ansett from 25% to 49% in 2002, despite the Air NZ board voting unanimously for the deal, despite Air NZ desperately needing the capital to re-equip its fleet and Ansett's fleet, despite the deal being recommended by officials (who saw it as critical to enable the airline to grow and have a strong strategic future). Dr Cullen did it because Qantas made a rogue bid to invest in Air NZ, which Air NZ's then shareholders opposed, which would have kneecapped its strongest competitor to enable them to merge. A concept Qantas's cunning management sold to the Labour Government, with the undercurrent that it was better for Kiwis and Aussies to stick together and face the world as one (with an enormous monopoly airline), than for NZ to sell out to... others.

Dr Cullen wanted to consider both the Qantas and Singapore Airlines bids, whilst in the meantime Air NZ bled red ink, lacking capital, desperately needing to restructure Ansett - until finally, following September 11 2001, the airline was to fall over, and Dr Cullen renationalised it, on condition that Ansett was left to fail. The rest is history.

Qantas saw its longest standing competitor on domestic and some international routes fall over, granting it complete dominance over the lucrative domestic business market in Australia, it saw its growing international competitor - Ansett/Air NZ/Singapore Airlines - pull out of Australia. Qantas faced only a new and budget market driven Virgin Blue, and saw competition reduce on the lucrative USA and Japan routes.

Qantas owes Dr Cullen a great deal for letting its competitor fail - because Dr Cullen would rather own the airline himself, than let owners of one of the world's best and most successful airlines own it.

So after all that it tried again, and Dr Cullen supported Qantas buying the rump Air NZ - despite competition authorities saying it would be disastrous for the state owned carrier to be owned partly by its biggest competitor.

Thankfully that brought it all to an end. Air NZ restructured, became a profitable carrier, Singapore Airlines bailed out after Dr Cullen severely diluted its ownership, and as a result felt cheated by the Labour government. Air NZ is a shadow of its former self in terms of size, although it has upgraded its fleet and products to compete. Its long haul international network largely comprises routes it monopolises or dominates, with only traffic to Europe and Hong Kong facing serious competition. It does it very best, its efforts of late to install personal video screens on 767s and Airbus A320s for all Trans Tasman flights is a clever competitive move, as it providing more legroom for frequent flyers on its domestic 737s.

However it lacks capital and lack a strategic investor from a large foreign airline.

Dr Cullen would say it should have been Qantas, ignoring that this would decimate competition on domestic, Trans Tasman routes and from Auckland to LA. If the airline continues to be majority state owned with no new capital, it will face all of its lucrative markets under pressure from Qantas-Jetstar. It is already facing a significant decline in UK, Japan and US origin tourism.

Jetstar has a huge advantage over Qantas, in that it has a lower cost base, because the employment contracts were signed outside the legendary generous Qantas pay structure. Jetstar has the economies of scale of the Qantas group, and will aim at the primarily low yield NZ tourist market (the business market will remain with Air NZ, but this is rather small beyond domestic routes, USA and London routes).

So well done Dr Cullen - your own xenophobic preference for Australian capitalists over Singaporean capitalists, your bizarre refusal to give a damn about competition in the aviation industry, and your desire to own an airline come what may, has left Air NZ - which to its credit has improved its game enormously in recent years - vulnerable to the Qantas group waging a war of attrition against it.

Singapore Airlines wont buy it while Labour is in power, for obvious reasons, and indeed there will be little interest in the airline unless it has a presence in the Australian domestic market - already crowded with three airlines (Qantas-Jetstar, Virgin Blue and Tiger Airways). The choices are simple:
- Seek a substantial foreign investor (preferably a Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, um that's about it in this environment);
- Pour taxpayers' money into financing a competitive battle;
- Let the airline withdraw from markets that are decimated by Qantas/Jetstar.

Well done Mr economic genius.

Greens take from the wise to pay for the foolish

The Greens are all in a funk about the Nats proposing to drop Labour’s “subsidise the wasteful” policy of paying for homeowners to insulate their own property. Their approach to this issue speaks volumes about what it thinks about incentives, rewards and penalties. Stuff reports on Jeanette Fitzsimons moaning about how she thinks it is a huge return on investment - which of course makes you wonder why people wont do it themselves.

Now having said that I support insulating state houses, as it increases their value for a future sale, but that isn't going to happen soon.

If you own your home, you either bought one with insulation or had it installed yourself, in either case you paid for it – with your own money. It’s called private property, a concept the Green Party has remarkably little time for. Presumably you did it for all of the good reasons the Green Party outlines, it saves money on heating, reduces risks of dampness and the related health problems (and damage to other property). In short, it can make very good sense to have insulation. However this is where the Greens, freedom and responsibility separate.

Choosing not to have insulation is a valid choice. The Greens don’t think it is, so want to bribe those who choose not to install insulation. What they don’t get, because they believe the state is some sort of benevolent Santa, is that the money to pay for this bribe comes from those who did choose to install it (and those who didn’t).

It is NZ$1 billion, not a paltry sum, over NZ$650 per household (more when you strip out state and council housing), a fair contribution to paying for installing insulation. That money could be returned to those who have and have not got insulation, and they could choose if they prefer insulation or prefer new clothes, a holiday in Australia or to invest it. Choices the Greens would disapprove of, because nothing is as important as the religion of “reducing emissions”.

So the Greens want to penalise those who have made a “good” choice and reward those who made a “bad” choice. Why? Jeanette Fitzsimons gives this banal explanation “This will keep people in worthwhile work during the recession, reduce power bills, improve health, especially for children with asthma, and reduce our climate change emissions”

Worthwhile work!! Because the way YOU would have spent your money wouldn’t have been for worthwhile work, those shops, that business you own, the airline and hotel you may have bought a holiday from – that isn’t “worthwhile work”, no.

National has made the right move. Taxpayers shouldn’t be forced to pay for those who don’t see value in insulating their properties anymore than they should be paying for new carpet, better heating, new hot water cylinders or curtains. The Greens should butt out of the decisions that property owners make about their own properties, and if they want to help people get insulation, give them their taxes back, instead of rewarding those who can’t be bothered paying for insulation themselves.

Their press release that the Nats plan to keep homes cold and damp speaks volumes of their statist centrally planned mindset. The message kiddies is simple, if you own a house YOU are responsible for whether it is cold and damp. If you depend on a politician to fix it then you are too stupid and irresponsible to own a home, and if your child's asthma is exacerbated by it, what kind of a parent are you? The sort who votes Green and Labour to get other people to tell you what to do and give you money to do it I suppose.

Tragic failure of the McCain campaign

John McCain has sadly failed to demonstrate positively why he should be elected President of the United States. I say sadly because he is quite a man in and of himself. He is not of the socially conservative wing of the Republican Party, but unfortunately those who aren’t don’t get agitated enough to propel that party along.

John McCain could have campaigned as himself, a man who is deeply committed to the USA, committed to its security and opposed both in word and deed to the existential threats made upon it over his lifetime. At one point it was Marxism-Leninism, today it is Islamist led terrorism. He took his own principled, and unpopular stance in favour of overthrowing the murderous gangster Hussein regime, and in favour of the surge which has turned the tide of the Iraqi insurgency and granted Iraqis the peace and freedom they should have had after the fall of Hussein – but failed to do so because of the Bush Administration’s crass errors. The Middle East and the world are a safer place because of that.

Beyond that John McCain has been promising on two fronts domestically. Firstly he has opposed pork barrel politics in government spending, something that Barack Obama can’t ever say without his nose growing. The use of pork, a cancer of theft and corruption that infests so much of the US body politic, is something that war deserves to be waged on. A McCain Presidency could, at least, veto pork wherever it came up, to tame a Democrat dominated Congress. Not that the Republicans are averse to some pork – but McCain himself is. Finally, McCain’s principled belief in free and open trade has been a beacon of reason in a world where protectionism is becoming de rigueur once more, led by the irrational response of developing countries to high food prices, whilst Europe remains in a statist coma. A revitalised Doha round would have helped contribute to a global recovery.

There are many reasons to criticise McCain. His desire to move forward on health care reform while well intentioned has been misguided, although shifting tax preferences for private health insurance from employers to individuals would do wonders to shift this regulated market to one of personal responsibility. He is patently incapable of moving his party to a more liberal stance on individual freedom issues. His performance in the Presidential debates has been stilted and unfortunate, Obama is clearly the better speaker, and Obama also has the advantage of believing in what he says – even though most of what he says is drivel.

McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin was thought by some, including myself, to be inspired from a political point of view, even though on the face of it she didn’t offer much from my perspective. No doubt the selection of Palin was hoped to attract three different constituencies, a strategy that has backfired in several ways.

Palin was first and foremost intended to fire up the conservative Christian base – a base that re-elected George W. Bush in 2004, and a base that has felt distinctly neglected by the Republican primaries when both Mitt Romney and more importantly Mike Huckabee looked unlikely contenders. As an evangelical, it was thought Palin could connect with those voters and give them a reason to back the far more secular talking McCain. Secondly, it was hoped Palin being a woman would help swing middle America female voters who may have backed Hilary Clinton (and less enchanted with Barack Obama). As the only woman on a ticket, this on itself would attract attention. Thirdly, her youth was seen as a contrast to his age, almost a mirror image of the Obama-Biden camp.

She gained media attention, but beyond the superficial and the curiosity value Palin has demonstrated one thing overall – her inexperience. The Vice Presidential role is largely a symbolic one, I say largely because it is about stepping in if the President is incapable of acting – something that admittedly didn’t stop Americans voting for George Bush senior when he had the idiot Dan Quayle running with him. However, Palin has come across as a fool – indeed one that takes the stereotypes of insular, unworldly and ignorant and shows them up to be true. To talk of foreign policy experience because Alaska is close to Russia – to not be able to name a single newspaper she relies on for international news (even if she didn’t read it) – this is not someone that many Americans, including most definitely many women and young people want one step away from the ability to wage war with nuclear weapons.

Palin’s conservatism is unsurprising – perhaps the saddest tragedy of US culture today is the yawning gap between the closed minded authoritarian Puritanism of the conservative right, and the moral equivalency, sacrifice worship, anti-science statist identity politics of the so called “liberal” left. One side preaching God, the other side preaching the environment, collective identity and “all cultures are as good as each other”. One side preaching family, hard work and co-operative communities, another side preaching non-discrimination, respect for individualism and secularism.

Barack Obama is likely to win not because he offers anything substantial to the US voting public. He doesn’t. He is an image and a brand, with hype based on his race, his speaking style and his slogan of “change”. On foreign policy he is keen on putting more effort into Afghanistan, whilst pulling out of Iraq, and talking to “everyone” (although his position on what he’d say is far from clear). Domestically he believes in tax cuts for the “middle class” and tax increases for the “rich”, whilst he has an enormous plan for pork, subsidies and government spending that is understandable given his left wing political roots. He is suspicious of free trade, and his response to the global financial crisis is to inanely say it’s Bush’s fault. Meanwhile, he wants to force the health insurance industry to accept everyone regardless of risk.

He has fired up the Democratic base because of his short centre-left credentials, his race, and his inspirational way of speaking (without saying very much at all). That in itself should ensure his victory.

McCain’s remaining chance is small. He can’t ditch Palin and choose another. He can’t undertake the TV debates again, but he can be himself. He can talk about how the USA built its wealth on freedom, markets and business not government. He can talk about his consistent opposition to government programmes and spending at a time of recession, against Obama’s desire to spend his way out of the recession. He can talk about his strong determination to protect the national security of the USA, and willingness to be firm against its enemies, and to seek peace but not at any cost – and not at the cost of sacrificing Iraq to Islamism.

It is hard to fight with a media who is smitten with style over substance, who sees the relatively young multi-ethnic Obama as being more than what he is – and has little time for negative attacks on him – contrast its treatment of the Bush administration.

The campaign is not over yet – Obama could make an awful mistake, McCain could prove himself yet to be the one more Americans might trust, and perhaps some of Obama’s shady past could haunt him more than smiles and slogans can rebut. Whichever way the election goes it will devastate the party that loses. The question should be, at a time when the economy comes first and foreign policy a close second, who should Americans trust to lead them through this troubled time. Sadly the conclusion at the moment is that neither can offer inspiration and substance that is worth enthusiasm.

The best I can muster is that McCain appals me less than Obama - and that both appal me less than the vile Hilary Clinton. Great.

How should Maori Party voters vote?

Yes yes, they shouldn't, I know - they should vote Libertarianz, but seriously it’s not really me to help out those who I think are voting for statist collectivist racially based party, but the thing is that MMP does it for them, and Maori Party voters figured it out last time anyway. They have something supporters of virtually all other parties have – a party vote that is best NOT given to the party they support. Why?

The magic of the overhang. You see last election the Maori party won 4 electorate seats, but only won just over 2.1% of the party vote. Typically, a party is entitled to its share of the seats in Parliament according to the party vote, as long as the party wins either 5% or one electorate seat. Yes, I know most of you already knew that. However, the Maori Party won more electorate seats than it won proportionate to the party vote, which means an overhand. The Maori Party has one more seat than it would’ve got had it won one electorate seat and then just had its party vote counted.

So what does this mean? Well for starters the size of Parliament crept up by one, which meant that the number of seats for a majority crept up too.

More importantly it shows that the party votes for the Maori Party were as good as wasted – and indeed many Maori Party voters, probably unconsciously – reflected that, since in all seats won by the Maori Party, Labour won the party vote.

Maori Party voters got the best of both worlds, from their perspective. represented by a Maori Party MP and Labour list MPs.

What it means is that voting for the Maori party on the list is pretty much futile if you believe the Maori party will win more electorate seats than it is likely to get as a proportion of the party vote – which is highly likely.

For those of us who believe in less government it means, ironically, that we can either encourage those who vote for the Maori Party on the electorate vote to vote for a party that supports private property rights and less government (Libertarianz or ACT) or encourage them to, vote for the Maori Party (stopping Labour getting their vote. You see if the Maori Party wins many more party votes then the overhand disappears, there are less MPs in Parliament representing the Maori seat voters, which probably means less Labour MPs – a good thing from my perspective.

If National (or ACT or Libertarianz) were clever they would accept and welcome Maori Party supporters vote Maori party in their Maori electorates – but seek the party vote wholeheartedly. For whilst there may be an overhand, the party vote would be held by someone other than Labour.

Perverse? Yes, but that is what the electoral system allows. I once saw an ACT video pre-1996 proposing that National voters vote National in their electorates and ACT for the party vote, for the very same reason. Of course any major party actively pursuing this would be incentivising the other major party to split into Labour- electorate and Labour – party vote, parties, an absurdity, to create an enormous 65 seat overhang of constituencies.

So remember that this election, the Maori Party has every chance of winning more seats than its party vote would entitle it to do, which no doubt is what the Maori Party would want. The bigger question is whether the Maori Party listens to its supporters who will, undoubtedly, predominantly vote Labour on the party vote – or whether it will support National. The latter, surely, would be enormously risky for the Maori Party, but more importantly, if successful, such a partnership would be much much riskier for Labour.

Would Maori Party supporters dare risk a party vote for one other than Labour? Which political party has said it would repeal the Foreshore and Seabed Bill, and defend Maori private property rights? It begins with L - and it isn't Labour.

Labour list candidates 29 to 25, any better?

Continuing my lengthy series on Labour party candidates are list positions 29 to 25. Yes they are all a shoo in, but will any make it on the electorate vote? I'm guessing just one.

Kelvin Davis – Te Tai Tokerau – number 29: Photo, profile, no website (he's not this Kelvin Davis). Kelvin was a teacher and school principal. He states: “Maori will achieve greatness by becoming educated, by attaining influential and meaningful positions in society and business and assisting to make decisions and inform policy that will help us all become ‘great’. Maori need to be proactive, positive and inclusive.” Much true, although an element of “being great through government” isn’t good. He wants to “create the conditions where all Maori achieve beyond their potential. I am going to make a difference.” If only it was about encouragement of the cultural change needed to do it, but surely he holds some hope. You could do worse than elect this man.

However, he is up against Hone Harawira, a great statist and populist. Harawira won with 52.4% against Dover Samuels on 33.4% in 2005, a yawning gap. However Labour did get 49.3% of the party vote against the Maori Party on 31%. Kelvin sounds like a major step up from Hone Harawira, but his chances can’t be great. Prediction: Harawira will hold on comfortably, he has the image and profile to be secure.

Carol Beaumont – Maungakiekie – number 28: Photo, profile, no website (but the CTU has a profile on her -down the page). Carol says “I have always been involved in representative and advocacy roles seeking to make positive change.” Is she a unionist then? “ I am proud of the changes that we have benefited from under Labour but there is more change we all want and need. For all New Zealanders I want to work to strengthen our democracy”. Pablum for the proletariat, because the Electoral Finance Act has really strengthened democracy hasn’t it? This is Mark Gosche’s electorate, so his retirement will mean Carol will face a tougher race. He won in 2005 with 53.3% against National’s Paul Goldsmith on 31.6%, and party vote was very similar with Labour on 50.7% and National on 33.5%. National is putting up Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, who may appeal to this electorate with a relatively high Pacific Islander population, so the race may be more interesting than it first looks. However, a gap of over 20% is considerable and so it is likely Carol will get through. Prediction: Carol Beaumont will take Maungakiekie, but with a far narrower majority than Mark Gosche.

Charles Chauvel – Ohariu – number 27: Photo, profile, and no website link, but he does have a website. Charles is a list MP. He claims credit for doing this:
• “open a new park in Korokoro,
• lead the 2007 Carbon Challenge in the Ohariu Valley,
• support childcare centres and schools across the electorate,
• advocate for improved transport - from new tunnels on the Johnsonville line through to the improvements to SH2”

I can fairly say I did more for lowering the floors of tunnels on the Johnsonville line than Charles ever did, so there he is claiming credit for decisions that have virtually nothing to do with him. Charles does say on his website he is into more integration with Australia - Schengen agreement style - which can't be a bad thing.

Now the interesting thing is that this is about Peter Dunne, and so both Charles and Katrina Shanks of National (a list MP also) are battling to unseat. Dunne has a big majority in this seat, and if votes are to go from him they are unlikely to go to Chauvel as, after all, they are both in the same government. However, Dunne’s local presence is substantial, and despite all the best will in the world, he is likely to remain the local MP. Prediction: Dunne will hold on reasonably comfortably, but the swing to National will see Chauvel coming third behind Katrina Shanks.

Phil Twyford – North Shore – number 26: Profile and website, which has only a photo on it! “After living in the United States it was wonderful coming back to a New Zealand that is optimistic, confident, moving ahead on so many fronts, and sure of our place in the world. I think a lot of the credit for that goes to the Labour-led Government of Helen Clark. Labour’s prudent economic management has delivered economic growth that has allowed overdue investment in our infrastructure, established the superannuation fund that will give security to New Zealanders when they retire, and allowed significant new investments in health and education.”

Idiot. He thinks government is so important, he thinks that it hasn’t reaped the benefits of the previous reforms.

“The Shore offers a great quality of life and unquestionable beauty but it is feeling the strains of rapid growth and development.” Not any more it isn’t! Given Wayne Mapp took North Shore in 2005 with 59.6% of the vote against Phil Twyford with 33.3%, he hasn’t a hope in hell of winning. Even the party vote is a lost cause, with National getting 53.5% in 2005 against Labour’s 29.9% Prediction: Phil Twyford will become a list MP, but Wayne Mapp will keep North Shore with no threat.

Moana Mackey – East Coast – number 25: Profile and photo (looking a bit different). She’s a biochemist! Done the union thing too, but what a waste – a scientist telling others what to do. Now she’s currently a list MP. “Over the last three years I have made the East Coast electorate my number one priority, and I hope that my work securing funding for local projects, lobbying on local issues, and assisting hundreds of you personally through clinics proves that I get results and shows that I am the right person for the job.” She likes chasing pork for the electorate too. However, she hasn’t much chance. In 2005, Anne Tolley won the seat with 44.8% of the vote against her on 40.8%. National got 42.2% of the party vote against Labour’s 39%, so this is nearly a bell weather electorate. Moana hasn’t really got much a chance this time when the tide is turning against Labour. Prediction: Anne Tolley will remain MP, but Moana will be in on the list.

So there you have it people, more outstanding talent pretty much guaranteed to walk into Parliament - because one in three New Zealanders think the Labour Party is so good for them.

Labour rescues rich students from the horrors of reality

Yes, the poor bubbas, so needy are the students of the middle and upper income earners.

According to the NZ Herald, Helen Clark is looking to take NZ$210 million a year (which of course is one year, it will grow) of your taxes to pay for the daughters and sons of doctors, lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, senior bureaucrats, politicians to all have a “universal student allowance”. It is of course grand theft to benefit the most advantaged.

It isn’t about students from poor backgrounds, because they already get an allowance. Let’s make it clear it is a blatant election bribe aimed at middle to upper income likely National voters and their voting age children.

Clark bemoans the current income tested allowances “Most of these students would receive no allowance under the current rules and need to borrow… “ Borrow! Horrors! So they actually would have to think before they claim their 75% + taxpayer funded education as to whether it will enable them to earn more money? They might have to take a risk? It gets worse for the poor bubbas “…, receive help from their parents…” NOOO anything but that, anything but rely on mum and dad, no far better to keep taxes up and make them dependent on Auntie Helen – your new parent.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it gets worse, you may have heard that some students are, according to our great Comrade Leader Helen Clark, deciding to “… work part-time, to make ends meet.” Nooooooooo. How COULD they? How unreasonable to spend your life learning that you actually have to earn your way? How WILL they learn life as a bureaucrat when they have to spend time EARNING their money?

So, a great filthy fat election bribe, the piggies are in trough playing with your future earnings eager to bribe others with it.

I’ll ask students one simple question – why do you think it is moral to force other people, who don’t know you, who may thoroughly oppose what you are studying, who may have a mortgage, their own kids, their own businesses and their own needs, to pay for you to live whilst you study with the primary aim of living an above average standard of living?

Oh and need I say the National response? "We will indicate a more generous scheme but it won't be universal at this time" Just another "me too".

UPDATE: Libertarianz Education Spokesman and Hutt South Candidate Phil Howison is concerned that this bribe could encourage students to stay at university endlessly:

"this is a blatant attempt to buy votes. It is bribery. It is corrupt. It is also part of Labour's agenda to make every New Zealander dependent on the state - just as Welfare for Families put middle-class families on benefits, even the richest students will be given their Universal Student Bribe. Welfare dependency destroys motivation, independence and self-reliance. We should be getting people off welfare, not putting our best and brightest on it and simultaneously removing the incentive for them to ever leave university"

Libertarian radio

Adding to the NZ libertarian media sphere is Libertarian Radio it contains links to a number of free market libertarian podcasts and broadcasts including Lew Rockwell, Free Capitalist Radio and Libz radio.

UK acts Nanny on alcohol

According to the Sunday Telegraph the British government is looking to address alcohol abuse in the UK not by requiring those who have accidents due to their own alcohol misuse to face the medical bill, no - by regulating how businesses can sell alcohol.

A government draft code of conduct, which could be made into law includes:
- Requiring wine to be sold in glasses that identify exactly the volumes sold;
- Banning promotions of free drinks to women;
- Restrictions on free samples;
- Bans on promotions that link drinking to "social, sexual, physical, mental, financial or sporting performance";
- Bans on drinking games that relate to speed and volume of drinking.

Yes, Nanny would rather penalise everyone, limit everyone, punish everyone - like children in a school yard, than target those who abuse, those who cost others. No.

There are bigger reasons why so many Brits drink far too much - it wont be fixed by regulation - it is cultural.

£500 billion of socialism

Sorry kiwis, even Auntie Helen can't undo Gordon Brezhnev Brown with socialism - and certainly Gordon outdos the US Federal government.

The Sunday Telegraph reports that the UK government is going to inject £50 billion into British banks, in particular HBOS and the Royal Bank of Scotland, to save both banks, making them both majority government owned. This adds to Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley, giving the UK government control of four of the biggest financial institutions in the country. This is despite a deal by Lloyds TSB to buy HBOS which it reports is still on track. The government is also seeking to inject funds into other banks, like Barclays and Lloyds, making the government a shareholder of them all.

United Soviet Socialist Kingdom or what? Well this is part of a £500 billion rescue package. Yes that isn't a mistaken zero. It is more than NZ$1.4 trillion. That is ten times the GDP of New Zealand. Half of it is to underwrite debt, £200 billion injection into money markets and the rest to partially nationalise banks. Compared to the US$700 billion package from Washington, given the US has five times the population of the UK, it shows new Labour is old labour once more.

Simon Heffer in the Daily Telegraph points out that with Gordon's nationalisation while painted as saving the UK from disaster "the consequences of his having done so could be catastrophic, too, because the socialist experiment rarely ends up with people feeling happier, richer and more free until it has ended."

"The liability and risk to the taxpayer is terrifying. The political cost to Labour if all this fails will be as nothing compared with the cost to the British public.This is what socialist economics brings. The intervention, or rather interference, of the state in financial and economic matters can only lead to sclerosis, the suppression of enterprise, the raising of taxes, starvation of investment, lack of innovation, technological retardation and the rise of the power of organised labour."

"The partial nationalisation of banks would provide a golden opportunity for Labour to return to the glory days of the George Brown National Plan of 1965, which saw the then Secretary of State for Economic Affairs write to every company in the country and ask them how they did their business. This included such fatuous questions as what they expected to be producing in five years' time. Protests from industrialists that that depended very much on what people were demanding in five years' time were met with incomprehension by the Labour government. "

Indeed some on the left in the US and UK are asking that, if the government can conjur up incredible sums of money to bail out banks, it can do so to build state hospitals, schools, businesses and there is no end to what the benevolent state can do.

What the great wish of Brown is that the financial sector will be buoyed and that there will be no need to guarantee debts, and government capital in banks will result in a significant return that can be privatised.

However the main discourse today is how "capitalism has failed" and how "Roosevelt saved the US in the 1930s". What is most important is for those of us who believe in freedom over statism, and markets over central planning, to ensure that this discourse is not dominated by the left. As PC says in an excellent article at Solopassion "When we see the destruction caused by the depression of the thirties and the means by which the Roosevelts of the world both extended it and then used it to permanently enthrone big government, it should be clear to anyone with eyes to see that what politicians do in the next few months will effect us all for good or ill for at least a generation."

Greens campaign on irrational authoritarianism

The Greens launched their campaign last weekend, and unsurprisingly I am far from impressed. The Greens you see hold at the forefront a brand of environmentalism - the notion that nothing, absolutely nothing, could be more important than clean water, air and the natural environment. It is the notion that without that as a number one priority, everything else comes second - implied with that is the "what if you didn't think like us" impression that it is bleak.

The Greens, by using images of children, are playing with heart strings, it is a clever tactic that hides what they are really about.

The website says that it "takes advice from experts", ignoring that it listens to those who tell it what they want to hear - I've read enough banality from the Greens on transport to know that they don't let contrary evidence get in the way of their quasi religious like beliefs. Better for foreign ships to be empty plying our shores than to carry goods!

The Green website is insipidly deceptive. It paints a happy picture of people co-operatively getting on with each other - the words "ban" "require" "compel" "tax" "support" "fund", which all mean the thud of nanny state pushing people about - are absent. Sadly the Green vision, which could be achieved among themselves without politics, is big government statism. It is all about using state violence. It is authoritarianism, and blindly irrational - because most of what they believe, is about faith not fact.

Take this "The Green Party is working for a society that values caring, co-operation, nurturing, and sharing relationships between its people." That's nice, except it has a funny way of showing it. What's caring about state dominated and controlled education? What's caring about compulsory almost unlimited eligibility for social welfare payments funded by the grim hand of Inland Revenue which treats you guilty until you prove innocence? What's co-operative about wanting to ban, compel and regulate?

The Green Party"accords equal opportunity (and obligations) to people of all race, ages, and abilities; it does not value one sex above another" Equal opportunity - so the 80yo quadraplegic should have the same opportunity as the 20yo champion swimmer. The genius mathematician the same obligations as the armed robber. How do you get equal opportunity, without smashing down the chances of those with successful, wealthy, loving parents and throwing buckets of their cash at those with abusive negligent ones? Vacuous nonsense. The state should not discriminate, but that should be the end.

The Green Party "guarantees the provision to all of the basic human needs of food, shelter, health care, and education". Well give up your job, the Green Party guarantees all - from the Green Party money tree. Oh no, hold on, this isn't achieved through faith, or even "caring, co-operation, nurturing, and sharing relationships" it's achieved through the state - the state takes money from everyone else, by threat of force, to give people all those things listed by the Greens. It is a basic need, guaranteed - why bother working?

Russel Norman, Green co-leader, had some curious things to add with his interview with the NZ Herald.

He said the three key policies are:
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (this is simply a religious view, with absolutely no inkling that if New Zealand does nothing beyond pursue policies that don't interfere with energy efficiency, it will make a shred of difference);
- Reducing dependency on oil (by spending more money on alternatives, because outcomes are not as important as being anti-oil);
- Food safety (noticed how unsafe your food is now?).

None of these would be achieved without massive regulation and taxation. He also adds "clean water" later on, although again this isn't about private property rights and the tragedy of the commons, it is about regulation. The Greens aren't big on private property, probably because they want to control and regulate so much of it.

I've written much about the Greens the last few years. I welcome the times they actually do believe in what they call "civil liberties". They represent a more consistent voice on this than does National or ACT. I also welcome their more sane view on drugs, albeit it is tempered by the instinct to regulate, the Greens at least listen to those who say that criminalising drug users doesn't work. Sadly this has sometimes been combined with the implicit "it's cool to smoke dope" message some people got from presuming (fairly) that Nandor Tanczos smokes it. Many Green Party members have good intentions, and like bird, whales and nature - which I can understand.

However the Green Party isn't a party of science and reason - it is a party that too often resorts to hysterical scaremongering. You can see it when the word "nuclear" comes out, and more recently nonsense about cellphone transmitter towers and genetic engineering. This isn't applying science to the environment, it is applying populist hype -and you can't seriously engage on it. It is the same with food safety. New Zealand made and organic good, foreign made inorganic suspicious. If the Green Party did actually listen to science and wasn't driven by the armageddon like religion of ecological extremists I might give it some credence.

Beyond the irrationality is the hypocrisy. The Greens are the party that calls for bans, compulsion, regulation, taxes and subsidies more than any others. There is barely a corner of life that they don't want the state poking its finger in, even if it to throw other people's money at it. Whether it be television programming, food labelling, transport, education, parenting, housing, clothing, healthcare, entertainment, sport, the Greens have a policy or an approach that means the state should be involved. It is a party of authoritarians dressed up as a party of loving caring hippies.

It is an absolute travesty that the mainstream media in New Zealand has failed to point out the two biggest weaknesses of the Greens - their irrational rejection of evidence when it contradicts their quasi-religious view, and their authoritarianism. Jeanette Fitzsimons has gone through election after election without being asked "why do the Greens have the word "ban" more on their website than any other party?".

The prospect of a Labour-Green coalition government after the election should send cold shivers down the spines of all those who fear more tax and more regulation. Helen Clark wanted a coalition with the Greens in 2005, but the numbers wouldn't add up as the Maori Party wouldn't support Labour, and NZ First and United Future refused to deal with the Greens.

Funnily enough the Greens share one point with Libertarianz "we know we have succeeded when people no longer need us". Well go on New Zealand, show them you don't need them!

In that vein I am adding to my blog the "Don't Vote Greens" banner, it goes nicely with "Don't Vote Labour".

Labour candidates 35-30 there is power in the unions

Yes, apologies for the delay in this ongoing series of profiles. Now with polls showing the election a bit closer, the people listed below are pretty much guaranteed to get into Parliament. As you'll see, almost all of them have one thing in common - it's called unions!

Carmel Sepuloni – list 35: profile, no photo or website, but she does have facebook. She stood for the leftwing City Vision ticket at the local body elections for the Mt Roskill Community Board. She is of "Samoan, Tongan and Palagi descent".

“I believe I can offer the Labour Parliamentary team a valuable perspective on issues that affect New Zealanders. My personal commitment has always been to strive and advocate for equity, social justice and fairness.” Sounds like a standard Labour soundbite,”fairness”, as if government can make life fair, rather than the opposite. Such naivety.

“Life and work experience have taught me that in order to do this successfully, it is necessary to participate in all levels of decision making.” Carmel why do you need to make decisions for other people? Why?

“I am confident that my skills, values, vision and life experience will enable me to effectively serve the Labour Party and our diverse New Zealand communities.” That’s great, why don’t you tell us what they are? Oh you don’t great.

So ladies and gentlemen, vote Labour for the party vote and you get list MPs who tell you next to nothing about themselves. Great that. Prediction: Carmel has a chance of being elected if Labour gets around the vote it did when it first won in 1999.

Rick Barker – Tukituki - number 34: Profile, photo but no website. Rick Barker has been an MP since 1993 representing Hastings then Tukituki, but in 2005 lost the seat, but gained a list position. Rick’s past was as (guess) a union National Secretary, having been a blue collar worker. He is now Minister of Internal Affairs, Minister for Courts, Minister of Civil Defence and Minister of Veterans' Affairs.

“Having come from a family who valued hard work, I recognise that it is hard work which leads to strong families, strong communities and a strong society” Good stuff Rick, now let us get on with that without you spending our money.

“I have seen the changes that such policies as Working for Families and Modern Apprenticeships and the increase in the minimum wage have made in our community. I know that secure jobs and superannuation, fair wages and affordable health care are important to you.” Yes made more people dependent on the state Rick. Well done.

Craig Foss of National took Tukituki from Rick Barker in 2005 with 49.3% of the vote against 42.4%, a rather decent majority. National was ahead on the party vote too with 46.5% against Labour’s 37.7%. Prediction: Rick wont turn that around, but he has a good chance of staying in Parliament on the list.

Darien Fenton – Helensville – number 33: Profile, photo and no website. Darien is a list MP and yet another union lackey. Seriously, how many unionists need to be in Parliament?

“I believe in fairness – for workers, for families and for communities.” I believe in meanness. I mean how banal is that? Well everyone it is code for “I believe in taking money off of people who I don't think are fair" (insert 6 year old girl like scowl)

“I raised my family through the bad times of the 1990’s, when our country was almost wrecked by a government that had no concern for ordinary people. Jobs disappeared, wages declined and poverty increased.” I am a silly bint who believes governments make jobs, increase wealth and want to forget Labour was in power before that implementing similar policies because the economy had been wrecked by socialism.

The lying bint ignores how unemployment dropped and incomes rose in the late 1990s, but then that’s her job – she’s a politician - lying comes naturally.

“Labour has the best leader, the strongest track record for delivering for all New Zealanders and the best ideas for meeting the challenges ahead.” Yes the government as an all encompassing Nanny delivers for you all.

She has no chance against John Key, who won with 64.1% against Labour’s Judy Lawley on 26.9%, party vote was won by National on 55.1% against Labour’s 28%. However as we creep up the list the chances get better. Prediction: No chance in Helensville, but she’ll slip in on the list – sadly, because she’s rather stupid.

Lynne Pillay – Waitakere – number 32: Photo, profile and no website. Lynne was a nurse, who then went on to the Nurses’ Union and from there the Engineers’ Union. She has a long history in leftwing causes such as “ Equity, Paid Parental Leave, Health and Safety, Save our Holidays, Fairness at Work” so she adds a much needed union voice to a Labour caucus that has a handful who have no experience with unions.

She is the MP for Waitakere and her profile states:

“I have concentrated my energy into promoting Labour’s policies such as paid parental leave, 20 hours a week free early childhood education, interest-free student loans and apprenticeships. Families want the best for their children and that is why tax relief through Working for Families, four weeks’ annual holiday, cheaper doctors’ visits and prescriptions are important. Combined with the subsidies and assistance with home ownership through KiwiSaver, all New Zealanders have the opportunity to reach their full potential.”

So she is into taking your taxes and spending them – so another vote for socialism, middle class welfare and she knows best how to spend your money.

She won with 48.9% of the vote against National’s Paula Bennett on 33.1% in 2005, Paula was elected on the list. Party vote was 46.7% Labour and 34.2% National. The question will be whether Lynne’s socialism and her claim that she brought Waitakere a hospital and the ARC funded double tracking of the Western rail line will help maintain her lead. Odds are that in this seat, where Laila Harre came second in 2002, Labour will scrape through against Paula Bennett who will put up a reasonable fight. Prediction: Lynne Pillay will keep the seat of the Westies, though not by much.

Ashraf Choudhary – number 31 list only: Photo, profile, no website, but there is a blog in name here which almost certainly is not his! Choudhary upset some Muslims because he abstained on prostitution law reform, and then he refused to condemn stoning of homosexuals in other countries just saying it was wrong in New Zealand. He says “The Labour-led government has brought about an unflinching belief in the positive attributes that accompany a diverse nation.” Um it existed before Labour. Choudhary will get in, because he is ranked low enough, but he really is virtually useless as an MP. He clearly has some beliefs that embarrass Labour, but his presence on the list somehow attracts those of Muslim beliefs.

Here is what the NZ Herald reported him saying three years ago:
"Mr Choudhary was asked: "Are you saying the Koran is wrong to recommend that gays in certain circumstances be stoned to death?" He replied: " No, no. Certainly what the Koran says is correct. "In those societies, not here in New Zealand," he added. "

Prediction: This rather embarrassing man will be elected by those who tick Labour on the party list.

Steve Chadwick – Rotorua – number 30: Photo, profile, no website. Chadwick was a midwife, a union rep in the Nurses’ Organisation and a district councillor, so again more diverse qualifications in the Labour party.

“It has taken hard work and tenacity, but Rotorua can now boast a secure hospital, more pre-schools and education facilities, lower teacher-pupil ratios, improved community safety, long-term funding to clean up our lakes, low unemployment, improved services for young people, Treaty settlements, arts, tourism, environment – all flourishing, all thriving.”

So she is campaigning on a local record of how much pork she has brought to Rotorua. You’d think Rotovegas is booming town of success and safety, when it has a dire suburban underclass of drug use, welfarism and crime. Chadwick scraped in at the 2005 election with 40.8% of the vote, National’s Gil Stebhens managed 38.6%, so it must surely be a risk for her against National’s Todd McLay this time. National won the party vote in 2005, with 41.9% against Labour’s 36.7%. Prediction: Todd McLay will be MP for Rotorua, Chadwick will slip back in on the list of course.

So there you go, only 29 to go, I am going to work hard to get through the rest by the end of the week. See what you can look forward to with another term of Labour? See also how very little the mainstream media scrutinises who will get in with a Labour list vote?

Don't worry Auntie Helen makes you feel safe

Yes, what an image. Helen Clark, in an attack of "me-tooism" has guaranteed all deposits in NZ banks with - your money. Yes, makes you feel so much better doesn't it?

You see, Auntie Helen and Uncle Michael don't have hoards of money stashed away that they earnt from some great endeavour. No, they have your money and your children's money they can take - unless they change the Reserve Bank Act and start increasing the money supply (ohh how tempting that may be for them) and inflation.

Pity at least a quarter of the public is too dumb to know better.

Now to be fair, NZ banks are sound enough for this to be only a little more than a stunt - well, unless you think attracting foreign deposits to NZ (like what has happened in Ireland) isn't a risk for NZ taxpayers - but what is most grating is how Clark is characterising the global financial crisis.

Clark has used what has essentially been a collapse of speculation on property markets fueled by loose monetary policy as a chance to throw some supercilious bile against free markets - of course she would - she's never been a friend of the market economy, whether it be her past in picking coffee beans for communists, her declaration that "the state is sovereign" and her long standing willingness to nationalise (rail and Air NZ) and monopolise (ACC) regardless of what consumers or producers want, demonstrates how much she sees this as a chance to rub her hands and tell the gullible how much they have to feel secure - she's in charge.

It is, of course, banal nonsense. This government has wasted much money, has raised taxes (and only just lowered them), and increased spending of your money year on year well beyond inflation. To say your money is secure because of the government is like saying that the mafia keeps it secure, in exchange for that hefty payout Leftie strongarms from your pay packet every fortnight.

Look at what she wants to borrow from your children to pay for:
- A railway line from Marsden Point to Whangarei. A project so lousy that the local authorities wont risk ratepayers money on it, the profitable port company wont waste its shareholders' funds on it and no other investor thinks it's a good idea (and it has an economic benefit/cost ratio of less than 1, meaning it's as crazy as any Muldoonist scheme);
- Upgrading schools - regardless of whether it will generate better educational outcomes, but it employs the building industry (which had such a hard time didn't it?);
- Back country refforestation- probably on land you own through the state and regardless of whether it's a good idea. More blue collar jobs to vote Labour though, right?

However the look at what the PM thieving bitch had to say about those who responded to the monetary supply provided by governments and to those members of the public who sought to maximise their own welfare from the property bubbles:

"A curtain is being drawn on the era of the free-wheeling unregulated money traders and financiers whose greed has shaken the international financial system to its core. Co-ordinated international action will be needed to ensure that the greed merchants don't ever again get the chance to destroy the lives of ordinary people in real jobs trying to put food on the table for their families"

What are you Helen? An ordinary person in a real job? Since when was it unregulated? Who is responsible for the money supply? Who borrowed self-certified mortgages of up to 120% of property value Helen?

Go wage your class war somewhere else - you don't produce anything Helen Clark - everything you give has been taken by force from someone else.

Anglican church offers socialists an answer

Surrender your tax cut - voluntarily, according to the NZ Herald.

Yes, you don't HAVE to take a tax cut and save it or spend it on what you want, whilst simultaneously whining about how taxes should be higher - you can actually DO something about it.

Complaining about poverty and how the government isn't doing enough is part and parcel of so many on the left - but when they get a tax cut few ever state that they welcome the chance to spend more of their own money on helping the poor, helping their local school or hospital. I'm unsure why, because surely the most effective way of helping people is to.. actually help them, rather than participate in politics and convince people to vote for politicians to force them to pay more to.. politicians, for bureaucrats to manage to dish out to help people.

In fact, I'd suggest that all those planning to vote for the Greens, for example, who want to increase the size of the state, should declare openly what charities they will support or what individuals they will use their tax cut for.

After all, if you can't convince people to be compassionate, why should you threaten force to do so?

Which is, by the way, another measure by which I determine charities I support. If a charity ever demands more from the state, it is off the list. Ask me for money, convince me I should pay, but don't you dare go trying to get state violence to force me to pay.

Understanding Nat's tax policy

So what are the Nats going to do? It's not so simple, but it is a step forward.

The Independent Earner Rebate is a fudge for extending Working for Families to single people, which is ok in itself, but complicates the tax system. Simpler, but more controversial to do away with Working for Families altogether.

The top tax rate inches down to 37% over 2 years, and the bottom rate from 21% to.... 20%! The threshold for reaching the 33% rate moves up to NZ$50,000, which is a step forward. Be grateful for small mercies, for that is what they are. If you want more, it's clear you'll have to vote for ACT, Libertarianz or United Future even (eeeks).

On top of that the Nats are maintaining a growth in real terms in state dependency on the grand fraud scheme known as national superannuation. You will continue to pay taxes for your parent's retirement in the hope that your children and other people's children will do the same. You will continue to pay taxes "towards retirement" and your estate will get absolutely nothing whatsoever if you die the day before 64, you'll get what the state says you get regardless of whether it invested the money wisely or not.

Yes I know most New Zealanders don't understand that it is fraud, yes I know that engaging in a rational debate about this sort of policy is beyond the feeble minds in much of the media, especially television, but why increase the dependency?

Roger Douglas understood the fraud of national superannuation only too well, although his solution was not one I agreed with. For National to abandon even discussing people saving for their own retirement, shows its great fear of the Muldoonist Grey Power lobby, and intellectual and communications vacuousness.

Helen uses the budget deficit

Economy tight?

Ah who cares - borrow from future taxpayers to get your own plane to shuttle you to a Grey Power meeting, as the NZ Herald reports the PM asking the air force to fly her to make a speech.

So taxpayers pay for her to fly to make a speech - but it isn't electioneering no!! Glad to hear it, John Key can expect the same thing then can he? He just needs an invite as Leader of the Opposition. In fact Rodney Hide should get one as the MP for Epsom.

More Labour fleecing the taxpayer to go do some electioneering in anything but name.

The leftwing Muldoon/formerly Winston supporting Grey Power didn't mind either, no doubt because most of them will be dead by the time the taxes need to be found to pay back the deficit, and they all worship nanny state providing retirement, health care and everything else.

More fuel tax thanks to Labour

and the Greens, and NZ First, and United Future and Jim Anderton.

2c a litre next year, rising to 9.5c a litre by 2011. Yes, you needed that didn't you?

7c of it is to electrify the Auckland passenger rail network, which shows you how much of a great saving that will be, because fares can't recover that cost.
1c is for further upgrades to Auckland's rail network.
1c to help build the Penlink highway in Rodney District
0.5c to upgrade ferry terminals and a new ticketing system

Well it IS a Labour government.

National opposed it, but big surprise what did John Key say in response? *baaaahh meeeeee toooo* Getting used to National opposing policies it just never changes when it is in government? Getting used to wondering what the hell the point is in voting National yet?

The NZ Herald reported he "acknowledged a fuel tax as a "legitimate way" of raising money for electrification, but was concerned at the speed with which it would go up to 9.5c"

Meanwhile, according to the NZ Herald the rail worshipping Greens are unhappy that a small part of the new Auckland regional fuel tax, which largely comes from motorists is to be spent on - a road!! Yes, outrageous really - motorists paying for a road, when they should be happy to be paying for transport modes they don't use, and which aren't even within 10kms of them (rail). Given motorists on the North Shore will pay this new fuel tax and wont get a railway, maybe the Greens might ask why they should be paying this tax at all?

The Greens think the proposed Penlink road/bridge, to link Whangaparaoa Peninsula with the Northern Motorway, is inconsistent with the Auckland Regional Land Transport Strategy - a document that before Labour was barely relevant to transport planning (fortunately). It calls the Penlink project "pork-barrelling of the worst kind". Not that the Greens believe in special subsidies for projects no - I mean the Wellington trolley buses for example...

Unbelievable. So pillaging the pockets of road users, car users, taxi companies, bus and truck companies to pay the costs of building an electric rail network isn't pork- no, because those who use it wont be paying for it, but those who don't use it will.

Now the Penlink project was once meant to be a toll road, but its costs have blown well out and it is no longer viable - which tells you that it shouldn't be getting built at all as not enough revenue can be gained from tolls to pay for it - but for the Greens to feel blasphemed against because a new petrol tax may have less than 15% of its revenue spent on a road, tells you how disconnected from user pays they are.

Just think if car usage dropped 20% there wouldn't be enough money to waste on subsidising railways hmmm.

Maori Party campaign - what's it all about?

Not PC has blogged about how some of the Maori Party policies look a lot like some Libertarianz ones. That being less tax, particularly introducing a rather large income tax free threshold. Not bad on the face of it, but what else is the party campaigning on? Is it a new vision for Maori, distinct from what Labour offers, or is it just recycled socialism with a strong nationalist flavour (yes I avoided the obvious misuse of both words)?

It is easy for me on the small government end of the spectrum to dismiss this party as Marxist racists, but there is something more to it - have no bones about it, I don't like parties based on race, and many in the Maori party have Marxist roots, but is it all bad?

Well the NZ Herald report on the launch indicated that the party is committed to the Treaty being part of a constitution. Tariana Turia said "Certainly we would like to see in future a constitution that is underpinned by the Treaty and we don't think you can have a constitution for this land without the Treaty being a significant part of it" which raises more importantly the issue about what it really means. However, the party realistically sees republican status a long time away so isn't focusing on it.

Of greater importance is overturning the Foreshore and Seabed Act - which from a libertarian point of view is about applying private property rights to those areas. That's another debate, and I am unsure if the Maori Party really understands private property rights, but that doesn't mean that it isn't open.

However then it wants to entrench the Maori seats - pure self interest, and pure democratic separatism. The Maori Party knows it may struggle to get 5% of the party vote if the Maori seats disappear after all.

It's worth noting how the Maori Party condemned the Ruatoki raids, given the evidence the Police held at the time, and I have noted before its support for Cuban communist agents. Both suggesting a radical leftwing side that is far from supportive of individual freedom. Note also that for a while it refused to judge the

It previously supported court action wanting more money for welfare recipients.

It previously treated US action in Iraq as equivalent to Islamist action.

The NZ Herald published a Q & A with Tariana Turia. Her big drive is clearly Maori, she couldn't care that much about everyone else with statements like "my vision is that our people are restored to being strong and independent people so that they can contribute to their own well-being" as quite objectivist as that is on first appearance - it's still "our people".

However, it is very clear that Turia knows that welfare does a lot of harm

"I don't like the word welfare and I think what we want to do is encourage our people to be independent of welfare. We don't want welfarism to be their goal in life. We want them to be independent people, not having to rely on state agencies, but restoring that same courage that our tupuna had to stand on their own two feet and make their way in life. That's what we want for our people. Our main focus is on whanau ora - the well being of family and what it takes to make them well, healthy, independent, standing on their own two feet."

That in itself is encouraging - of course Working for Families is all about that, but is Maori Party policy consistent with this?

She further says "One of the things we want to do is unbundle all of the money that's being spent on Maori people and we want to know how it's being spent and what the outcomes have been." That is a start too. It should reveal how appallingly wasteful state monopolies are.

Yet this same woman once said that it was impossible for Maori to be racist.

She said that all Maori deserved an apology, presumably because they are all victims.

The same party says that banning gang patches (which i approve) is like how Jews were singled out in Nazi Germany.

So what a mismash. A bizarre collection of a desire for Maori to be successful individuals, but also clearly separatist. A view of the world which suggests that Africans can't be condemned as much as non-Africans, that Nazism was just another period of oppression and that Cuba is just another form of self determination.

There is some recognition that welfare doesn't work, that violence in Maori communities is damnable and that education and self esteem are answers, but it is too much rooted in the power of the state. Perhaps most sad is how much the Maori Party is rooted in its own nationalism. It isn't explicitly racism in that it denigrates others, but it lifts Maori as a priority above all others - which, of course, is what the Maori seats do.

Maori voters clearly see something in the Maori Party, more as a clear alternative to Labour - one not addicted to the arrogance of power, but actually interested in making a difference, but it is a difference rooted in the left, state power and nationalism - itself a rather banal concept. Identity politics is tribal, and it is what sadly causes far too much conflict - the idea that your ethnic identity is paramount when you consider how to treat others.

It seems most of all to be pragmatic, not guided by ideology at times, except when it is anti-American, sceptical about Western values and avowedly nationalistic about being preferential towards Maori. For that it wont ever be a party that can grow beyond the Maori seats. For now, as long as the Maori seats remain - as long as the National Party thinks it needs the Maori Party, to weaken Labour - this will remain an unfortunate part of New Zealand politics.

For quite simply, Maori are more political diverse than that represented by one political party - it should never be "I am Maori, therefore I vote Maori Party". Yet is that not what the Maori Party is advocating?

European socialism working well then?

BBC reports "World stock markets have plunged after government bank bail-outs in the US and Europe failed to stem fears of slower global economic growth."

Confidence has been rattled, big time, and the European interventionist governments can't resolve their own banking system, after what the Economist described as schadenfreude about the US financial crisis. Europe's more left leaning governments saw it as part and parcel of Yankee wild wild west capitalism - gee how everything looks as bad or worse close to home.

Sarkozy, once seen as the Thatcher of France is no more. The Economist reports:

"In the space of three days, he twice laid into free-market capitalism. “Laissez-faire is finished,” he announced in Toulon. “The all-powerful market that is always right is finished.” It is not just rhetoric. With unemployment climbing, Mr Sarkozy has launched a scheme of state subsidies to supplement low pay, paid for by an extra 1.1% tax on capital income that dismayed his own party’s deputies. Talk of tax cuts has been shelved. " at the same time as saying "that “capitalism is the system that has enabled the extraordinary development of western civilisation,” adding firmly that “anti-capitalism offers no solution to the current crisis.”"

It's not only the USA that printed money indirectly through central banks offering excess credit.

Peak Oil right?

Oil below US$90 a barrel according to CNN.

It's basic economics. The US, European and Japanese economies are stagnant, demand for oil has dropped as the high price suppresses demand globally, demand for Chinese exports has dropped, reducing economic growth there. So with less demand for oil, the price drops. Those hurt now are those, such as some airlines, who hedged jetfuel prices to be getting higher.

Inflation drops, and relief appears for motorised transport users.

The oil age wont end due to a lack of oil. It also doesn't need anyone thieving more of your money to subsidise alternatives.

Bush couldn't get elected - 2000

For those who think McCain is finished, here is an article from Slate in 2000 about why Bush couldn't get elected against Gore.

(Hat Tip - Tim Blair)

Tax cuts for whom?

Before Idiot Savant talks about National “looting the state for the benefit of their rich mates” shouldn’t the following be made clear?

According to the Treasury website, in 2007, those on the top income tax rate of 39% comprise only 14% of taxpayers (remember when Labour said it would be 5%?) but they pay 49% of all income tax. Nearly half of all income tax is collected from those earning more than NZ$60,000 per annum – itself a fairly paltry sum, especially for anyone raising a family.

That’s the rich – the ones actually paying for the state. Go to those earning more than NZ$90,000 and you find that is only 4% of taxpayers, and they pay 31% of income tax.

By contrast, 52% of the population earning less than NZ$30k (and not those earning nothing – e.g. children with no savings accounts) paid only 16% of all income tax.

So if the Nats miraculously got rid of the 39% top tax rate, as is ACT and Libertarianz policy, it would be handing back part of the money earned by those who pay 49% of all income tax.

Besides the point that someone who loots you (the state) can hardly be looting anyone when it gives you back your money in the first place – but even if the Nats DID cut taxes for the “rich”, it would hardly be giving money to those who hadn’t paid it in the first place would it?

Imagine an election slogan - love the rich - they pay half of all income tax already, pay to keep the same number of people and their families clothed, fed, housed, emi-educated and given healthcare, and are those most able to leave.

Imagine moreso, what would happen if that 14% left tomorrow?

The disappearance of half of all income tax revenue and 20% of all tax revenue would the least of your worries - think of all the occupations of those so hated by the left for being "rich". Think of what the economy might look like.