NZ election results live: 0645 GMT

Well I'm watching my guide and Not PC's guide as reference points, listening to Radio NZ (yes I know) because both TV channels are clearly unable to stream properly.

Parties
National 48.9% a bit low for this stage
Labour 31.3% very low for this stage
Green 6.2% looks very good for them (eek)
NZ First 4.6% higher than most pundits thought, but not enough
Bill and Ben Party shows you can convince 500 odd people to vote for a joke!

Electorates
National's safe seats all look safe again.
Auckland Central has Nikki Kaye narrowly ahead of Tizard
Botany has Labour coming second behind Pansy Wong, ACT's Wang campaign isn't looking like a winner.
Epsom has Rodney Hide comfortably ahead of Richard Worth
Mangere Labour's Sio is well ahead of Philip Field
New Plymouth, Duynhoven behind National's Young
Ohariu, Dunne narrowly ahead of National's Shanks
Otaki, Hughes still narrowly ahead of National's Guy
Tauranga, Winston is well behind
Maori seats, looking not much different from before

Conclusion

Nats, ACT, Greens should all be relaxed. Labour must be worried, and the Dunne/Anderton parties will be just that. Libz fighting with the Workers' Party :)

NZ election results live: 0630 GMT

Party vote (I'm going to round to the nearest tenth of a percent)

18% between National and Labour 49.1% Nat/31.5% Lab
Greens 6.1%
Kiwi Party 0.6%

Electorates

Far too early to tell. Maori Party doing well in its seats.
Bridges well ahead of Winston in Tauranga
Formerly safe Labour seat of Napier, already well ahead for National's Chris Tremain

Conclusion

Nats will be quietly relaxed, Labour must already be worried
Greens looking good
NZ First doing better than expected
ACT doing better than expected

New Zealand election 2008: Blogging live

Gah it's 6.15am here in the UK so now I can test:
- Streaming the TV networks
- Streaming the election results website

TVNZ is completely failing, but the election results website is not, so I will have an update at 0630GMT. Results with 2.7% of votes cast already though, and the Nats are well ahead.

Blogging the NZ election

Yes I'm going to do it, madly on the laptop, as quickly as results get interesting. That means the party vote patterns, and the electorates that are more likely to shift hands. You know the ones that matter, like Tauranga, Ohariu, the Maori seats.

It's going to be the political scientist in me, with a libertarian tinge :)

Have fun voting kiwis, it should be ticks that you are glad to give to a person and a party.

So off to bed!

My prediction for what it's worth

Party name	Party Votes won	Party seat entitlement	No. of electorate seats won	No. of list MPs	Total MPs		% of MPs
Act New Zealand	3.20%	4	1	3	4		3.33%
The Greens	7.30%	9	0	9	9		7.50%
Jim Anderton's Progressive	0.70%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Māori Party	2.90%	4	4	0	4		3.33%
New Zealand Labour Party	35.30%	45	25	20	45		37.50%
New Zealand National Party	44.70%	56	38	18	56		46.67%
United Future New Zealand	0.90%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Totals	95.00%	120	70	50	120		100.00%

Simple points:

National's support overrated, Labour's underrated. Previous elections have demonstrated this time and time again. ACT also underrated. Greens a little overrated, a bad economy does not make people that Green oriented. Maori Party has peaked somewhat, more likely to get more party votes which isn't going to help it. Dunne and Anderton both shrinking single man acts. NZ First gone and Libz? Substantially better than last time.