A pattern has emerged in New Zealand elections.
If voters perceive a foregone conclusion for the major parties, voters for the second placed party desert it for others. The Greens and NZ First have taken the soft headed voters on the left and the bigoted working class voters on the right. Both will get hit when Labour improves next time.
Yet Labour hasn't experienced the rout that National did in 2002, not by a mile. This result is akin to 1996, but it wont be enough to save Phil Goff
Largest silent winner is the Conservative Party, a credible 2.8% of the vote but no seats
ACT faces immediate infighting, John Banks wont be made leader although he'll expect to be. That will kill the party
United Future is slowly dying, but Peter Dunne is hanging on.
Mana Party might just be Hone, it would be a travesty if Annette Sykes has a platform for her vileness.
However, the biggest joke has to be how MMP has delivered 13 Green MPs and 9 NZ First MPs.
National may lose West-Coast Tasman to Labour, but pick up two Christchurch seats.
Yet a small note of victory for Libertarianz, an increase in party votes.
26 November 2011
New Zealand election live blogging (Libertarians results)
Hamilton West - Tim Wikiriwhi (independent) 38 votes, second last. Libertarianz (which he wasn't fighting for directly) with 10 votes, double that of the Alliance
Invercargill - Shane Pleasance a credible 95 votes, last. Libertarianz 25 votes neck and neck with the Alliance
Kaikoura - Ian Hayes 50 votes, last, Libertarianz 12 ahead of the Alliance
Mana - Richard Goode (ALCP) 103 votes ahead of ACT. Libertarianz 5 ahead of Alliance and Socred
North Shore - Michael Murphy 40 votes, last. Libertarianz 13 votes, ahead of Alliance and Socred
Northcote - Peter Linton 25 votes, last. Libertarianz 14 votes ahead of Alliance and Socred
Ohariu - Sean Fitzpatrick 48 votes, last. Libertarianz 26 votes, ahead of Alliance, Socred and Mana
Tamaki - Stephen Berry (independent) 57 votes, last. Libertarianz 2 votes ahead of Socred (!)
Wairarapa - Richard McGrath 402 votes, ahead of ACT. Libertarianz 65 votes ahead of Alliance, Socred and Mana
Waitakere - Peter Osborne 8 votes, last. Libertarianz 3 votes, ahead Alliance , Scored
Wellington Central - Reagan Cutting 16 votes 2nd last equal. Libertarianz 6 votes, ahead of Socred
Whangarei - Helen Hughes 47 votes, last. Libertarianz 13 votes, ahead of Alliance
overall? 816 votes with 60% counted, definitely an improvement on 2008
New Zealand election live blogging 0800GMT
National looking like its dream result, but it is early. Reminds me of 2005, when it looked good, but slid behind when big Auckland booths were counted.
Labour will be searching for a new leader. However picking up Te Tai Tonga reduces the overhang by one, which is good for National
Greens will be pleased they'll have a big caucus
NZ First looks like sliding in, but it is early to say. Blame the media for loving him for controversy.
Conservatives a credible 2.7%
Maori Party has lost around 40% of its party vote to Mana
Key issue will be whether Mana gets enough party votes to justify a second seat - let's hope Annette Sykes is kept out, she is well behind in Waiariki
Peter Dunne and John Bank both look like they have Ohariu and Epsom respectively, but early for both
50% of Wairarapa counted and Richard McGrath has pulled in more electorate votes than the ACT candidate with 298 votes and 48 party votes - between Maori and Mana
New Zealand election - live 0745 GMT
So I have finally woken up. TVNZ and RNZ both coming through strong.
This looks like Labour's 2002, 25% is dire, almost as bad as National in 2002.
NZ First re-emerges, blame the media for giving him the auction of publicity. As David Farrar has said, why didn't the Conservative Party get the same?
Big focus is the Maori seats with our separatist racist candidate Hone looking like taking his seat, if so he may be on the cusp of bringing in the 9/11 cheerleader Annette Sykes.
Coromandel has Catherine moonbeam Delahunty third, ouch for Labour.
Peter Dunne must be worried in Ohariu
Long list of Labour seats at risk, Palmerston North very narrow for Labour
This looks like Labour's 2002, 25% is dire, almost as bad as National in 2002.
NZ First re-emerges, blame the media for giving him the auction of publicity. As David Farrar has said, why didn't the Conservative Party get the same?
Big focus is the Maori seats with our separatist racist candidate Hone looking like taking his seat, if so he may be on the cusp of bringing in the 9/11 cheerleader Annette Sykes.
Coromandel has Catherine moonbeam Delahunty third, ouch for Labour.
Peter Dunne must be worried in Ohariu
Long list of Labour seats at risk, Palmerston North very narrow for Labour
New Zealand election live blogging
Having written my guides to voting (they are the most popular posts), and noting Not PC's excellent rival guide, the time for politicking is over. A few million people will be making some ticks to choose people to govern them. I did my special vote days ago at the New Zealand High Commission at Haymarket, London.
I will be blogging and tweeting live about the election when results start appearing - as I listen/watch NZ media from London.
I secretly like psephology so I will find it a fun way to spend a chilly Saturday morning in London. I can combine it with having a drink everytime someone I like wins, and be sure I will remain sober the rest of the day. Politics at election time is extremely hard work for those who do it, but don't empathise with them. Bob Jones once wrote how he refused to talk at a "leadership forum" for young people, on the grounds that the last thing he wanted to encourage was people to lead others, and that New Zealand's problems at the time (early 1980s) were in large part due to a man who epitomised that. Politicians have been working hard to gain power. Most of you work hard to earn a crust. I know which group I have more time for.
Yet, despite what you might think of any of the parties and politicians, today there are thousands of Syrians fighting with their lives, many in prison, some being tortured, trying to evict a 41 year old hereditary one-party dictatorship. Too many take for granted their right to live their lives in relative peace and freedom the way they wish. Saturday is your chance to say whether you agree with the current lot or want the government to do more or less, in different shades and you don't face the army aiming guns at you for your views (or the secret police rounding you up to a rally to cheer the thugs on).
I spent a week in a totalitarian state last year (no, not China), seeing and meeting people who all lived in constant fear of saying the wrong thing or doing the wrong thing - value the freedom you have, for only when you don't have it, do you realise how precious it really is.
Yet, despite what you might think of any of the parties and politicians, today there are thousands of Syrians fighting with their lives, many in prison, some being tortured, trying to evict a 41 year old hereditary one-party dictatorship. Too many take for granted their right to live their lives in relative peace and freedom the way they wish. Saturday is your chance to say whether you agree with the current lot or want the government to do more or less, in different shades and you don't face the army aiming guns at you for your views (or the secret police rounding you up to a rally to cheer the thugs on).
I spent a week in a totalitarian state last year (no, not China), seeing and meeting people who all lived in constant fear of saying the wrong thing or doing the wrong thing - value the freedom you have, for only when you don't have it, do you realise how precious it really is.
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